Carinthians latest Arctic reports

[beng]

Thanks for the replies - I am quite surprised though that we are fairly close to the sea ice average extent at the moment - at least from what Cryosphere today reports - but I guess the very positive AO has helped focus the cold that's around over the arctic circle and the sea ice areas (with a few exceptions).

[carinthian]

Afternoon all,

LATEST ARCTIC REPORT AS OF 25/01/07

The sun will become visible again by Mid February breaking the long Polar night in Svalbard. This usually corresponds with the coldest time of year for our Friends in the North. Currently -25C there at the moment, thats some way below normal. Total current Northern Hemisphere ice coverage is near 14 million sq Km , that being a good bench mark for so called long term average. The present rate of growth should see this coverage expand some more and I am confident that this season will show the largest amount of Arctic Ice for 6 years or more. Siberian temperatures have been above normal so far this winter, whereas Arctic Basin has been below normal. Good signs that AO will transfer slowly into -ve mode with a build of very cold air at the Pole to continue. This usually transpires cold weather towards Europe with a much colder end to Winter or start to Spring more than likely nearer to our shores now that deep- mid -Winter has passed on by without hardly a frost or snowflake.

C

Evening,

Further to the above report, drift ice reported 75N south of Svalbard. The main polar ice edge has now locked in all of the North Barent Sea Eastern coastline of the Archipelago with a fairly concentrated prong of ice pushing Southwestwards. Arctic sea ice is about 15% more compared to last year in the Barent Sea and 10% more in the Greenland Sea. The forecast continuation of below average temperatures around Svalbard should be ripe for more ice formation. The southern limit of drift ice in this location between Svalbard and North Cap is about 73N and with pack ice at 75N. This season is turning out to be more like an old fashioned Arctic sea ice winter.

[carinthian]

Hi carinthain - long time no speak. Hope you enjoyed Austria?

This report is great to hear - and seems quite an achievement in the context of this very poor winter, up till very recently anyway.

Perhaps there is a lovely sting in the tail ??!

The current signs are very promising for Feb

Tamara

Hi Tamara,

Yes, plenty of snow in Austria after a late and warm start to the season. If we can just tap into the that Polar source, our winter may just deliver some cold temperatures and that lovely snow yet.

C

[carinthian]

Hi Ben,

Still awaiting latest Icelandic Coastal Guard report. The fragmented polar ice edge does appear to be about 25 km off the NW Horn. That is very close for late January. I know in the Spring of 1968 and the period in late February of 1969 an ice bridge was formed. The close range shots from air reconnaissance with be able to report the concentration in the Straits. Will keep updated when I obtain the latest picture.

C

Evening all,

Further to the above post, I can confirm today that the Icelandic Coast Guard report Arctic ice has made landfall into the larger fjords of the Horn of NW Iceland. Further out to sea there is a distinct line of fragmented ice with general concentration of 3/10th- 5/10th. This edge is 15 miles from the North Cap. The main Polar ice sheet is 75 miles out into the Denmark Strait. NWly winds are required to drive this intial ice sheet onto the mainland to be followed by a period of very cold Anticylonic weather to lock the ice. Worth watching over the coming weeks to see if it comes off ?

C

[telfordmc]

^^ as a weather novice could i ask what implications for britain in the long run will arise from more ice being just to the nw/n/ne of us?,and could there actually be a re-balancing of the below average northern hemisphere ice that has been recorded in the past decade? if that makes sense :lol:

Edited January 29, 2007 by telfordmc

[carinthian]

^^ as a weather novice could i ask what implications for britain in the long run will arise from more ice being just to the nw/n/ne of us?,and could there actually be a re-balancing of the below average northern hemisphere ice that has been recorded in the past decade? if that makes sense :lol:

Hi telfordmc and welcome to the debate, good question, in all honestly I cannot answer what the implications are for Britain. Certainly, ice levels have been on the decrease for quite a lengthy period now. We have been here before in the Mid 70s when ice amounts were less than now. A re-balance seems certain this winter/ spring time. Evolution of current ice trends are still in motion. Perhaps in 8 weeks time we will be in a better situation to evaluate what has happened this season.

C

[sundog]

well im sure the polar bears will be happier!

[telfordmc]

Hi telfordmc and welcome to the debate, good question, in all honestly I cannot answer what the implications are for Britain. Certainly, ice levels have been on the decrease for quite a lengthy period now. We have been here before in the Mid 70s when ice amounts were less than now. A re-balance seems certain this winter/ spring time. Evolution of current ice trends are still in motion. Perhaps in 8 weeks time we will be in a better situation to evaluate what has happened this season.

C

Thanks for the welcome and for being kind enough to reply ,I have followed your thread and others quietly,taking it all in ,i shall watch with great interest B)

well im sure the polar bears will be happier!

Lol!

Edited January 30, 2007 by telfordmc

[PK2]

Hi telfordmc and welcome to the debate, good question, in all honestly I cannot answer what the implications are for Britain. Certainly, ice levels have been on the decrease for quite a lengthy period now. We have been here before in the Mid 70s when ice amounts were less than now. A re-balance seems certain this winter/ spring time. Evolution of current ice trends are still in motion. Perhaps in 8 weeks time we will be in a better situation to evaluate what has happened this season.

C

Hello,

Another question from a long term reader of this thread. I'm not sure if this has been asked before but are we seeing increase in the area covered by "thin" sea ice that will melt quickly in the summer or is this new ice "proper" arctic ice that will "last" - at least for a while?

Regards PK

[carinthian]

Hello,

Another question from a long term reader of this thread. I'm not sure if this has been asked before but are we seeing increase in the area covered by "thin" sea ice that will melt quickly in the summer or is this new ice "proper" arctic ice that will "last" - at least for a while?

Regards PK

hI PK,

We have 3 ice groupings in Arctic Waters:

a) The Permanent ice that covers much of the Arctic Ocean for most of the year with sizeable pockets of ice that last all year long in the Greenland Sea, Siberian Sea and Beaufort Basin.

b)Old ice ( at least one summers duration) this is mostly found in the Mid - Arctic zone.

c)Young ice which is less than 30 cm in thickness, this usually forms in the more open waters of the Arctic circle ( such as now forming in the Barent Sea. This thin ice soon melts away by the end of spring.

It is the long term retention of " Old Ice " that is becoming the variable factor for Summer Ice amounts.

C

[PK2]

hI PK,

We have 3 ice groupings in Arctic Waters:

a) The Permanent ice that covers much of the Arctic Ocean for most of the year with sizeable pockets of ice that last all year long in the Greenland Sea, Siberian Sea and Beaufort Basin.

b)Old ice ( at least one summers duration) this is mostly found in the Mid - Arctic zone.

c)Young ice which is less than 30 cm in thickness, this usually forms in the more open waters of the Arctic circle ( such as now forming in the Barent Sea. This thin ice soon melts away by the end of spring.

It is the long term retention of " Old Ice " that is becoming the variable factor for Summer Ice amounts.

C

Hi C,

Thanks for the info. I think then I was trying to ask if we are seeing ice building that might be thick enough to make it through the summer and become "old ice".

I'm also intrigued by the possibility of an "ice bridge" to Iceland.

PK

[carinthian]

Evening all,

Further to the above post, I can confirm today that the Icelandic Coast Guard report Arctic ice has made landfall into the larger fjords of the Horn of NW Iceland. Further out to sea there is a distinct line of fragmented ice with general concentration of 3/10th- 5/10th. This edge is 15 miles from the North Cap. The main Polar ice sheet is 75 miles out into the Denmark Strait. NWly winds are required to drive this intial ice sheet onto the mainland to be followed by a period of very cold Anticylonic weather to lock the ice. Worth watching over the coming weeks to see if it comes off ?

C

Further to the above report, I can report milder conditions has forced the the outer edge back into the Denmark Strait and is now mixing with the main polar ice sheet about 50 miles from the Horn. The forecast of a much colder airmass off the Greenland ice -cap over the coming days should drive the drift ice back towards Iceland. The rogue ice sheet that was located about 150 miles south of Svalbard and drifting into the Norwegian Sea has now dispersed in the warmer waters. A a brief milder few days in the Barent , now seems likely to be followed be much lower temperatures.

C

[carinthian]

Afternoon all,

LATEST ARCTIC REPORT AS OF 25/01/07

The sun will become visible again by Mid February breaking the long Polar night in Svalbard. This usually corresponds with the coldest time of year for our Friends in the North. Currently -25C there at the moment, thats some way below normal. Total current Northern Hemisphere ice coverage is near 14 million sq Km , that being a good bench mark for so called long term average. The present rate of growth should see this coverage expand some more and I am confident that this season will show the largest amount of Arctic Ice for 6 years or more. Siberian temperatures have been above normal so far this winter, whereas Arctic Basin has been below normal. Good signs that AO will transfer slowly into -ve mode with a build of very cold air at the Pole to continue. This usually transpires cold weather towards Europe with a much colder end to Winter or start to Spring more than likely nearer to our shores now that deep- mid -Winter has passed on by without hardly a frost or snowflake.

C

Morning,

Just over one week on from the above report. Here it comes at long last. I am excited about the potential severity of this Arctic feed into the British Ises. A very cold source into Britain, via Scandinavia. This is the best scenario for snow. Last week I mentioned quasi-stationary lows over Scandinavia are the feeding ground for snow activity in the NE of Britain. The trough pushed out of Norway of Tuesday could produce good snow cover over the Northern Isles and spread down the Eastern coastal counties of both Scotland and NE England. I know JH will be keeping an eye on this one. So folks enjoy this Arctic cold and lets hope it gets established for a few weeks !

C

[johnholmes]

hi Paul

I know JH will be keeping an eye on this one

indeed I am, see the blog(s)!

[Guest Viking141]

The trough pushed out of Norway of Tuesday could produce good snow cover over the Northern Isles

C

I like that bit!! Nice one Carinth!

[carinthian]

Morning,

Just over one week on from the above report. Here it comes at long last. I am excited about the potential severity of this Arctic feed into the British Ises. A very cold source into Britain, via Scandinavia. This is the best scenario for snow. Last week I mentioned quasi-stationary lows over Scandinavia are the feeding ground for snow activity in the NE of Britain. The trough pushed out of Norway of Tuesday could produce good snow cover over the Northern Isles and spread down the Eastern coastal counties of both Scotland and NE England. I know JH will be keeping an eye on this one. So folks enjoy this Arctic cold and lets hope it gets established for a few weeks !

C

Further to the above, a snowy circulation is already set up off the Trondheim coastline with the main centre becoming stationary over Southern/ Central Norway over the next 36 hours. A feed of very cold air around this circulation should produce some snowfall for the Northern Isles later today and into tomorrow. Hope Viking 141 will be celebrating tonight with a few lagers. Look foreward to his reports !

C

[Guest Viking141]

Further to the above, a snowy circulation is already set up off the Trondheim coastline with the main centre becoming stationary over Southern/ Central Norway over the next 36 hours. A feed of very cold air around this circulation should produce some snowfall for the Northern Isles later today and into tomorrow. Hope Viking 141 will be celebrating tonight with a few lagers. Look foreward to his reports !

C

Hi Carinth

Yes just seen that on the latest sat pics. I like that a lot! Look forward to letting you know what I get out of that later!

[carinthian]

Hi Carinth

Yes just seen that on the latest sat pics. I like that a lot! Look forward to letting you know what I get out of that later!

Morning Viking,

Latest Trondheim radar also picks up plenty of activity. Hope you get some of the action later.

Cheers

C

[carnoustie]

Excellent thread, Carinthian. Your updates always make interesting reading.

Anyway, now that we are at the coldest part of the arctic winter, what is your verdict on it so far?

I tend to keep an eye on goings on in Canada and they have been experiencing some amazingly low temps recently. I know that it is not in the Arctic, but Winnipeg, on roughly the same latitude as London, was down to about -40c (-40f) just the other day.

[carinthian]

Morning all,

The latest Arctic Ice Reports show the first development of sea ice in the Gulf of Finland and a continuing expansion of ice in the Gulf of Bothnia. Low temperatures look likely to prevail in this region, so ice may become a problem between the bigger ports of Helsinki and Tallinn. The ice breakers will now be on full patrol. Up in the Barent Sea, some drift ice has been reported between Northkapp of Lappland and Svalbard. It will be interesting to see how much further progress southwards it makes. White Sea is also showing a good ice cover with solid ice flowing out of the Dvina.

Will produce a wider picture later today.

Thanks Carnhoustie, glad you like the forums.

C

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Carinthian, here's a nice read from the IAN website

Thickest Pack Ice in Memory in Iceland

4 Feb 07 - Thick pack ice, the like of which has not been seen for decades, stretched into the western fjords as temperatures plummeted and a bitter wind blew in from Greenland.

"I have lived here my whole life, but I have never seen so much pack ice before," said Helgi Árnason, a farmer in Dyrafjördur.

"Forty years ago, large icebergs drifted on to beaches but it was nothing compared with this.

"[Pack ice] used to be Iceland's ancient enemy, but we stay calm so long as the situation doesn't worsen. This is just to remind us where we live."

Edited February 11, 2007 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[kippure]

Here

Full article.

[summer blizzard]

Could somebody post the link to the Cryosphere site please????

Very interesting link.

[J10]

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Could somebody post the link to the Cryosphere site please????

Very interesting link.

What are we looking out for??

BFTP