Carinthians latest Arctic reports

[Interitus]

It is thought that winter refreezing would only be circa 50%

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

It is thought that winter refreezing would only be circa 50%

If ice mass was down to 2% I'd understand the use of that phrase "essentially ice-free". 50%?? Would be enough warming to keep an Arctic tanker route open 365 d/yr which will have political and economic implications. Probably won't be enough warming to make beach-front hotels on the Svalbard an economically viable proposition.

[carinthian]

Any further ice expansion tends to occur over the next few weeks before the sun starts to make it get warmer. Areas likely for growth at this time of year will occur in the Gulf of St Lawrence , Newfoundland Coast and the Baltic. The Atlantic tidal flow tends to keep the Cabot Str free but Strs of Belle Isle and into the Gulf of St Lawrence ice is reaching towards peak values. Overall the Northern Hemisphere currently looks like recording the highest coverage for at least 4 years. Whether 14.5 million sq Km of sea ice can be recorded now depends on the amount of new ice formation, mainly in the areas mentioned above.

C

[oldsnowywizard]

Just having a look at the archives over the last 10 years for 850hpa temps..

This year there seems to be alot more -30 to -35 temps in terms of areas covered..this is from todays date right up to +180 hrs predicted by the GFS.. the usual caveats attached to this of course.. but a few questions...

why this year does there seem to be colder 850 values? what is the impact of these colder temps?

update on the areas based from the cryosphere today website..

total northern hemisphere ice levels have dropped back down to under 14million sq m pretty much 500k sq miles down on the 1979-2000 mean.

arctic basin just over 4million sq miles - same as last year and equal to the 1979-2000 mean

greenland sea just over 0.45sq m and reducing - 0.15sq million down on the mean

barents sea just over 0.5 sq million - 0.25 sq million down on the mean

kara sea - just over 0.8 sq million - 0.02 sq million down on the mean

Laptev sea - just under 0.7 sq million - equal to the mean

East Siberian - 0.9 sq million - slightly and i mean slightly above the mean

chuckchi sea - 0.55 sq million - 0.01 sq million under the mean

bearing sea - 0.45 sq million - 0.15 sq million down on the mean

beafort sea - 0.5 sq million - equal to the mean

hudson bay - 1.2 sq million - 0.1 sq million down on the mean

Baffin - 0.9 sq million - 0.32sq million down on the mean..

read into what you will.

[carinthian]

Just having a look at the archives over the last 10 years for 850hpa temps..

This year there seems to be alot more -30 to -35 temps in terms of areas covered..this is from todays date right up to +180 hrs predicted by the GFS.. the usual caveats attached to this of course.. but a few questions...

why this year does there seem to be colder 850 values? what is the impact of these colder temps?

update on the areas based from the cryosphere today website..

total northern hemisphere ice levels have dropped back down to under 14million sq m pretty much 500k sq miles down on the 1979-2000 mean.

arctic basin just over 4million sq miles - same as last year and equal to the 1979-2000 mean

greenland sea just over 0.45sq m and reducing - 0.15sq million down on the mean

barents sea just over 0.5 sq million - 0.25 sq million down on the mean

kara sea - just over 0.8 sq million - 0.02 sq million down on the mean

Laptev sea - just under 0.7 sq million - equal to the mean

East Siberian - 0.9 sq million - slightly and i mean slightly above the mean

chuckchi sea - 0.55 sq million - 0.01 sq million under the mean

bearing sea - 0.45 sq million - 0.15 sq million down on the mean

beafort sea - 0.5 sq million - equal to the mean

hudson bay - 1.2 sq million - 0.1 sq million down on the mean

Baffin - 0.9 sq million - 0.32sq million down on the mean..

read into what you will.

Hi OSW,

To answers the points you raise,I will give you my following observations;

a)The total area is measured in sq Km and not in sq miles.

b)The 1979-2000 comparision is not gospel as in the early period of recording of sea ice as viewed by satellite TIROS-N measured traced out slush and water mixture in the sea eddies. So not to be compared as wholly accurrate and for a guidance only.

c) Certainly has been some notable cold pockets in the high Arctic this winter. Until all the winter months data has been examined we do not yet know the exact average temps in the more exposed parts.

Still some interesting recording to take place during March. By the end of the month we will then have a better ideal how this winter compares to previous ones.

Regards

C

[oldsnowywizard]

Hi OSW,

To answers the points you raise,I will give you my following observations;

a)The total area is measured in sq Km and not in sq miles.

b)The 1979-2000 comparision is not gospel as in the early period of recording of sea ice as viewed by satellite TIROS-N measured traced out slush and water mixture in the sea eddies. So not to be compared as wholly accurrate and for a guidance only.

c) Certainly has been some notable cold pockets in the high Arctic this winter. Until all the winter months data has been examined we do not yet know the exact average temps in the more exposed parts.

Still some interesting recording to take place during March. By the end of the month we will then have a better ideal how this winter compares to previous ones.

Regards

C

DOH and ooops about the units!

[summer blizzard]

"why this year does there seem to be colder 850 values? what is the impact of these colder temps?"

For the first question, i would say that it is a combination of low solar flux due to the current minima and teleconnections favouring a positive AO.

As for the second, obviously greater ice buildup is a result, as a result of this less summer melt and greater albeado.

[reef]

"why this year does there seem to be colder 850 values? what is the impact of these colder temps?"

For the first question, i would say that it is a combination of low solar flux due to the current minima and teleconnections favouring a positive AO.

As for the second, obviously greater ice buildup is a result, as a result of this less summer melt and greater albeado.

Id say its more due to the positive AO than anything else, as it serves to bottle up the cold wthin the Arctic. A good analogy last year was that of the cold air over the pole being like a baloon which is half deflated. You can squeeze the baloon at any point and it will push out at another point. An example is the 2004/05 winter, during which January saw mild tropical air pushed northwards from the Atlantic deep into the Arctic. The result was that the cold air spilled southwards elsewhere and the far east had some quite severe weather. In a highly +ve AO setup however, imagine there is no forcing (little cold or warm air advection) - the result is that the balloon will settle into an almost spherical shape (requiring the least energy).

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Id say its more due to the positive AO than anything else, as it serves to bottle up the cold wthin the Arctic. A good analogy last year was that of the cold air over the pole being like a baloon which is half deflated. You can squeeze the baloon at any point and it will push out at another point. An example is the 2004/05 winter, during which January saw mild tropical air pushed northwards from the Atlantic deep into the Arctic. The result was that the cold air spilled southwards elsewhere and the far east had some quite severe weather. In a highly +ve AO setup however, imagine there is no forcing (little cold or warm air advection) - the result is that the balloon will settle into an almost spherical shape (requiring the least energy).

So with -ve AO we should expect lower than average Arctic ice totals and colder winters at lower latitudes? But with +ve AO average ice totals from "bottled-up cold air" and warmer winters at lower latitudes?*

Nice theory. It's tailor made to explain higher ice levels this winter without losing grip of one's belief in a warming world.

As for the "bottled-up" claim it's not strictly true for this winter - check the Bering Sea Ice Area (Pacific Ocean) graph - cold air does not look too bottled up December/January, does it? But then along comes West coast US blocking - sorry "global warming" - and the ice melts.

Also, Sea Surface Temperatures matter a lot to ice formation which means raw ice amounts do not tell the whole story about temperatures. Given anomalously warm water (perhaps explained by a run of westerly, +ve NAO winters) you can get cold air temperatures with no extra ice formation.

This happens in the North Atlantic. Barents sea from November. Not just warm air which causes the line to nose dive but the warm sea. Ice totals increase but not by amounts past because the water takes more cold air to freeze.

*I wonder why I haven't yet heard the phrase "bottled-up warm air" to explain Britain's anomalously warm winter?

Edited February 28, 2007 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[oldsnowywizard]

Nice to see lots of -40 degree 2m temps from this Friday..mainly over northern Canada and Greenland.. it looks like Greenland is going to be very cold this weekend... Carinth any actuals you can add?

[carinthian]

Nice to see lots of -40 degree 2m temps from this Friday..mainly over northern Canada and Greenland.. it looks like Greenland is going to be very cold this weekend... Carinth any actuals you can add?

Hi OSW,

February temps over much of Greenland are above average. The lack of an intense anticyclone allowed the migration of maritime air mass to push the average temps into +ve anomaly at surface levels. Cold pools look likely to intensify during the first few days of March and as you point out, Greenland is going to record some lower values all round this weekend. -50.5C remains the record March Low at sea level. I don't expect that record to be broken though. -60C should be easily recorded on the summit station over the weekend.

C

[carinthian]

Hi OSW,

February temps over much of Greenland are above average. The lack of an intense anticyclone allowed the migration of maritime air mass to push the average temps into +ve anomaly at surface levels. Cold pools look likely to intensify during the first few days of March and as you point out, Greenland is going to record some lower values all round this weekend. -50.5C remains the record March Low at sea level. I don't expect that record to be broken though. -60C should be easily recorded on the summit station over the weekend.

C

Morning,

Temp dropped below -60c on the summit this morning. Not sure if a March record low has been attained here yet. Nice to see some low temps anyway. Not in our latitude I am sorry to say.

C

[carinthian]

Hi OSW,

February temps over much of Greenland are above average. The lack of an intense anticyclone allowed the migration of maritime air mass to push the average temps into +ve anomaly at surface levels. Cold pools look likely to intensify during the first few days of March and as you point out, Greenland is going to record some lower values all round this weekend. -50.5C remains the record March Low at sea level. I don't expect that record to be broken though. -60C should be easily recorded on the summit station over the weekend.

C

Hi, Last nights minimum low on the summit under the developing anticyclone clocked -62C , thats a mere -80F. A very cold pusle of Arctic Air being currently squeezed into the Greenland Sea towards Jan Mayen Island , currently with severe wind chill.

C

[Polar Continental]

Hi, Last nights minimum low on the summit under the developing anticyclone clocked -62C , thats a mere -80F. A very cold pusle of Arctic Air being currently squeezed into the Greenland Sea towards Jan Mayen Island , currently with severe wind chill.

C

Hi carinthian,

Thanks, it's good to read these reports from Greenland, amazingly and unimaginably low temperatures, almost impossible to comprehend, i just wish Greenland could share just a little bit of that bitter cold with us before the end of the season, as it has hogged it all winter now, we can but hope.

Paul

[John Cox]

absolutely Paul,

I love to hear of these ultra freezing temperatures especially after such a mild winter here.

All this talk of global warming I find tedious and I still think we are capable of gettting a stunning winter.

Thanks carinthian for keeping us up to date.

[carinthian]

absolutely Paul,

I love to hear of these ultra freezing temperatures especially after such a mild winter here.

All this talk of global warming I find tedious and I still think we are capable of gettting a stunning winter.

Thanks carinthian for keeping us up to date.

Hi John and Paul,

Yes, Its good to see that very low temps can still occurr. Last nights could be a record low for March on the summit, albeit a long way from our latitude. Last winter in the British isles was "frigid "compared to this past one. Even much of lowland Europe south of 55degress North has hardly seen a frost, nevermind snowfall. My part of Austria is recording one of the warmest winters ever. This followed the snowiest winter for over 20 years. Nearer to home in Cheshire I recorded over 70 frosts last winter, I can count them on one hand this winter. Although there is plenty of snow on the ground in Katschberg again, the cold is nothing like last winter . As Greenland has shown and parts of Canada as well, record lows can still be attained in todays so called " global warming ". Weird goings on.

C

[carinthian]

absolutely Paul,

I love to hear of these ultra freezing temperatures especially after such a mild winter here.

All this talk of global warming I find tedious and I still think we are capable of gettting a stunning winter.

Thanks carinthian for keeping us up to date.

Hi John and Paul,

Yes, Its good to see that very low temps can still occurr. Last nights could be a record low for March on the summit, albeit a long way from our latitude. Last winter in the British isles was "frigid "compared to this past one. Even much of lowland Europe south of 55degress North has hardly seen a frost, nevermind snowfall. My part of Austria is recording one of the warmest winters ever. This followed the snowiest winter for over 20 years. Nearer to home in Cheshire I recorded over 70 frosts last winter, I can count them on one hand this winter. Although there is plenty of snow on the ground in Katschberg again, the cold is nothing like last winter . As Greenland has shown and parts of Canada as well, record lows can still be attained in todays so called " global warming ". Weird goings on.

C

[John Cox]

Hi C,

Glad at least you had some snow, if not the low temps.

I have to admit this winter has really sunk to a low (Not temps)

I await next winter with anticipation and hope that next autumn's synoptics and Ice reports will hearld a "New winter"

[carinthian]

Hi C,

Glad at least you had some snow, if not the low temps.

I have to admit this winter has really sunk to a low (Not temps)

I await next winter with anticipation and hope that next autumn's synoptics and Ice reports will hearld a "New winter"

Hi John,

The mildest of this winter is the talking point in the newspapers and on TV throughout Germany, Holland , France , Italy and on the local ORT stations. Surely, next winter cannot be likely this one ? In all my years I have never seen one like this past 3 months. Unbeliveable !

Best regards to you and all in the old country.

C

[Polar Continental]

absolutely Paul,

I love to hear of these ultra freezing temperatures especially after such a mild winter here.

All this talk of global warming I find tedious and I still think we are capable of gettting a stunning winter.

Thanks carinthian for keeping us up to date.

Hi John and Paul,

Yes, Its good to see that very low temps can still occurr. Last nights could be a record low for March on the summit, albeit a long way from our latitude. Last winter in the British isles was "frigid "compared to this past one. Even much of lowland Europe south of 55degress North has hardly seen a frost, nevermind snowfall. My part of Austria is recording one of the warmest winters ever. This followed the snowiest winter for over 20 years. Nearer to home in Cheshire I recorded over 70 frosts last winter, I can count them on one hand this winter. Although there is plenty of snow on the ground in Katschberg again, the cold is nothing like last winter . As Greenland has shown and parts of Canada as well, record lows can still be attained in todays so called " global warming ". Weird goings on.

C

Hi John, carinthian,

Yes indeed GW is a fact, but to have it rammed down our throats relentlessly by the media, day in and day out does get extremely tedious, i got the message 5 years ago, and so have we all, who care.

Any way that’s another piece for another thread.

Yes the good news is the fact that proper winter can still strike this county with vengeance, Greenland and Arctic temperatures say it all, eventually the right synoptics will occur and this country could well be in for a bit of a shock, next winter maybe, maybe not, but it will come.

Regarding frosts, last year 2005 / 2006 between November and April, i recorded 43 air frosts, so far this year only 23.

Paul

[Polar Continental]

Hi Paul, John and Carinthian

Always a great thread of course and at the moment there is certainly nothing else of interest happening elsewhere! I agree with the above comments about extremely low temps still occuring in different places round the world year to year.

As Paul says, I still believe that we get our turn eventually. It is just a case of keep waiting, but when it does happen it will come as a shock to many. That will be a very nice additional bonus to lovely cold and snow - and whilst it won't disprove GW it might bring relief to the tedious hype about it.

I am hoping for a cooler year generally, to hopefully at least get us into a better postion next autumn without excess warmth hanging around. A brisk breeze from the east and just pleasantly warm temps instead of searing heat would be lovely for the summer! Whether we get that is another question though of course - alhough I don't want a repeat of last year I don't want wind and rain either.

Tamara

Hi Tamara,

Yes, what could be better a strong Greenland high forming shortly and delivering some of that intensely cold air that has been stored up there all winter, giving us a bitterly cold spring with frequent severe snow storm and blizzards, followed by harsh frost every night. :lol:

This for me could then continue through to early May, when at last the stronger sunshine gives us many bright crisp sunny days, this continuing and taking us through June and July, more deep blue skies under the influence of the persisting Greenland high, the air would be free of pollution, this would give us pleasantly warm days, but not hot and stifling. August would see the Atlantic and low pressure taking us into an early Autumn, followed by early September frosts and rapidly cooling continent, the SST’S would be well down, we could see our first easterly develop around early November delivering the first severe frosts of the season setting us up nicely for the coldest and snowiest winter since 1739 / 40

Surly I’m not asking for too much.

Paul

[carinthian]

Hi Tamara,

Yes, what could be better a strong Greenland high forming shortly and delivering some of that intensely cold air that has been stored up there all winter, giving us a bitterly cold spring with frequent severe snow storm and blizzards, followed by harsh frost every night.

This for me could then continue through to early May, when at last the stronger sunshine gives us many bright crisp sunny days, this continuing and taking us through June and July, more deep blue skies under the influence of the persisting Greenland high, the air would be free of pollution, this would give us pleasantly warm days, but not hot and stifling. August would see the Atlantic and low pressure taking us into an early Autumn, followed by early September frosts and rapidly cooling continent, the SST’S would be well down, we could see our first easterly develop around early November delivering the first severe frosts of the season setting us up nicely for the coldest and snowiest winter since 1739 / 40

Surly I’m not asking for too much.

Paul

Paul, masterly requested. You are the anti- Zephyr!

C

[Polar Continental]

Paul, masterly requested. You are the anti- Zephyr!

C

Hi again Carinthian

Lol, we have seen enough of the Atlantic to last us a life time this winter, it will be the turn of the east sooner or later

Paul

[Snowyowl9]

Hi Tamara,

August would see the Atlantic and low pressure taking us into an early Autumn, followed by early September frosts and rapidly cooling continent, the SST’S would be well down, we could see our first easterly develop around early November delivering the first severe frosts of the season.

Surly I’m not asking for too much.

Paul

Yes not like last autumn when summer just carried on into october it`s not normal.

Something like this when autumns meant autumn started in late August when I was younger.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119850825.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119850825.gif

Edited March 3, 2007 by Snowyowl9

[Optimus Prime]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119850825.gif

Probably one of the worse summer charts you'll ever see wasn't that long ago is this one;

8th July 2004-; 50 MPH easterly gale, damaged trees, rain and maximum temperature around 14c widely. A few areas across the south struggling to get into double figures that day.