Carinthians latest Arctic reports

[eddie]

Aah, but the Antarctic ice isn't growing. It's still comfortably down on the medium term baseline, as the Arctic ice is.

According to Cryosphere Today, sea ice area is running slightly above average in the Antarctic when measured against the 1979-2000 mean? I appreciate it's not quite as simple as just the area covered by ice, and that some Antarctic areas have seen a big decrease, but still, if you are going to say something like that it would be helpful to provide some links so that people can see what you are talking about.

Edited May 7, 2007 by eddie

[eddie]

IF (that's a big if!) the ice in the Arctic is shrinking and the ice in Antarctica is growing, could this be as a result of Milankovitch cycles? It would make complete sense to me. Especially as I have read of many unusual snowy events "down under". Plus a warmer Northern hemisphere.

It just seems to "fit".

Nogin, the best I could find to explain why Antarctic ice is growing (or at least not shrinking) was this....

New Evidence Shows Antarctica Has Warmed in Last 150 Years

"The main reason that Antarctica appears to have cooled during the 1990s is that a natural phenomenon called the Antarctic Oscillation, or Southern Annular Mode, was largely in its positive phase during that time. The Antarctic Oscillation is so named because atmospheric pressure in far southern latitudes randomly oscillates between positive and negative phases. During the positive phase, a vortex of wind is tightly focused on the polar region and prevents warmer air from mixing with the frigid polar air, which keeps Antarctica colder.

Typically the Antarctic Oscillation alternates between phases about every month. But in the 1990s the postive phase occurred much more often, Schneider said. Without the influence of the Antarctic Oscillation, he said, it is likely the Antarctic would show the same kind of warming as the rest of the Southern Hemisphere. Before 1975, Antarctica appears to have warmed at about the same rate as the rest of the hemisphere, about 0.25 degree C per century. But since 1975, while the Antarctic showed overall cooling, the Southern Hemisphere has warmed at a rate of about 1.4 degrees per century."

[Stratos Ferric]

According to Cryosphere Today, sea ice area is running slightly above average in the Antarctic when measured against the 1979-2000 mean? I appreciate it's not quite as simple as just the area covered by ice, and that some Antarctic areas have seen a big decrease, but still, if you are going to say something like that it would be helpful to provide some links so that people can see what you are talking about.

http://www.worldwatch.org/node/1673

http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/...11/sea_ice.html

To be fair Eddie, against the recent baseline (1979-2000), Antarctic ice is increasing slightly, though the picture is mixed. Given that the Antarctic is generally warming this may seem counter intuitive, however, warmer air (albeit still below freezing) can hold more moisture, increasing the potential average snowfall. Given that we have also recently seen record breaks away from the continental sheet this is all consistent with a faster flowing mass of ice. There is some evidence from further back to suggest that there has been a significant reduction since the 1960s, but info regarding the Antarctic is temporally sparse c.f. that for the Arctic where the robustness of the long record is much better.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

http://www.worldwatch.org/node/1673

http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/...11/sea_ice.html

To be fair Eddie, against the recent baseline (1979-2000), Antarctic ice is increasing slightly, though the picture is mixed. Given that the Antarctic is generally warming this may seem counter intuitive, however, warmer air (albeit still below freezing) can hold more moisture, increasing the potential average snowfall. Given that we have also recently seen record breaks away from the continental sheet this is all consistent with a faster flowing mass of ice. There is some evidence from further back to suggest that there has been a significant reduction since the 1960s, but info regarding the Antarctic is temporally sparse c.f. that for the Arctic where the robustness of the long record is much better.

the thermometers are on the sticky out peninsular, subject to changing sea temperatures.

the main Antarctic landmass has shown cooling so to say Antarctic has been "generally warming" is misleading language.

the ice sheets cycle, grow, break off. This is what happened to the Larson B ice shelf. like cutting toe nails.

the high levels of Antarctic sea ice are very notable compared to the lower levels of Arctic sea ice.

[carinthian]

Latest Arctic ice reports for the first week in May do show much more ice around Svalbard and into the Greenland Basin compared to this time last year. Early May 2006 there was a significant retreat of first year ice to the north of Svalbard. Kara Sea is presently showing a high concentration of Spring ice with the River Ob still ice bound. Arctic Basin still showing above the mean average. Lets hope this continues into the summer months. Will be watching developments closely.

C

[Stratos Ferric]

the thermometers are on the sticky out peninsular, subject to changing sea temperatures.

the main Antarctic landmass has shown cooling so to say Antarctic has been "generally warming" is misleading language.

the ice sheets cycle, grow, break off. This is what happened to the Larson B ice shelf. like cutting toe nails.

the high levels of Antarctic sea ice are very notable compared to the lower levels of Arctic sea ice.

AFF: I find it staggering that with all the science located close to the pole those foolish boffins forgot to take along some thermometers: silly scientists! They'll have to do better next time. And of course the satellites can't see Antarctica can they? Who programmed them?

Re temperature trends: I think the honest position is that it's mixed.

http://www.unis.no/research/geology/Geo_re...tureChanges.htm

You'll have to explain what you mean by your last post. As I see it the Arctic is 1 million km2 down on the 1979-00 norm, whilst the Antarctic is 0.5 million km2 up. My maths might be failing me, but I think that means that the loss at the northern pole exceed the gain at the southern pole in recent times.

[Polar Continental]

Latest Arctic ice reports for the first week in May do show much more ice around Svalbard and into the Greenland Basin compared to this time last year. Early May 2006 there was a significant retreat of first year ice to the north of Svalbard. Kara Sea is presently showing a high concentration of Spring ice with the River Ob still ice bound. Arctic Basin still showing above the mean average. Lets hope this continues into the summer months. Will be watching developments closely.

C

Hi carinthian,

Glad to see your are keeping an eye on ice concentrations, and good to hear that levels are up on last year, it will be interesting how this summer melt, pans out on previous years.

Paul

[parmenides3]

Noggin: the Milankovitch cycles can't be the explanation. The wiki article on them is quite good.

Generally; Arctic sea ice declining 8%/decade, Antarctic stable/growing slightly (less than 1%/decade), but the latter not statistically significant.

It is hard to know what value can be placed on looking at central Greenland or Antarctic temperatures for climate signal, especially as the 'noise' level is so high. The key areas are the peripheries, as these are where changes in temperature pattern, or regime-shifts in weather patterns, are made manifest most clearly.

Side point: I've just read a paper which suggests that a decent proportion of recent decline in the Arctic can be attributed to forcings related more to cyclical climate patterns than to background global temperatures; it is a complex system, and there isn't a simple cause-effect case to be made, in spite of what you hear.

Carinth: well done for getting your thread back on track. FWIW, I am surprised at how slowly the ice appears to be melting at the moment. I am also surprised that Bill Chapman has not responded to my enquiry about why the graphs on CT changed so suddenly. i'll make further enquiries.

What's the prognosis from Alaska or the Canadian ice service at the moment?

:)P

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Given that the Antarctic is generally warming this may seem counter intuitive,

SF

Anarctica is NOT warming, it has been cooling for 35 years mate. Will post abundance of links later

BFTP

[Stratos Ferric]

Given that the Antarctic is generally warming this may seem counter intuitive,

SF

Anarctica is NOT warming, it has been cooling for 35 years mate. Will post abundance of links later

BFTP

Perhaps you'll bother to check one or two of the links I've posted first. It is to say the least a varied picture, and as P3 suggests higher up, hardly significant. We can't both argue that the thermometers are in the wrong place (AFF's point) and therfore measurement is invalid, and at the same time protest that themeasurement is valid. I wish you guys would exercise some joined-up thinking.

[carinthian]

Latest Arctic ice reports for the first week in May do show much more ice around Svalbard and into the Greenland Basin compared to this time last year. Early May 2006 there was a significant retreat of first year ice to the north of Svalbard. Kara Sea is presently showing a high concentration of Spring ice with the River Ob still ice bound. Arctic Basin still showing above the mean average. Lets hope this continues into the summer months. Will be watching developments closely.

C

Further to the above report, reports of fast ice between Point Barrow in Alaska and Amundsen Gulf in North America Arctic Rim at this time of year sometimes speeds up the predicted break-up of the ice floes. In early June-the Arctic Seasonal Outlook predicts this date. Baffin Bay into the Davis Straits are reporting large amounts of ice this spring ( 30% more coverage than last year ) . The Great Lakes and the East Coast, again show lower than average ice amounts, but more than last year. Variable ice conditions are a feature of this season in the Bering Straits with marked warm and cold spells(SSTs still in the region of -2C) so ice melt will be slow for a few more weeks. So it appears that Baffin Bay in the Eastern Sector looks likely to break up much later than Beaufort Sea in the Western Sector. This ties in with the higher concentration of thicker ice in the Arctic Basin and Lincoln Sea in the Greenland Sectors.

c

[ScandiHigh]

Latest Arctic ice reports for the first week in May do show much more ice around Svalbard and into the Greenland Basin compared to this time last year. Early May 2006 there was a significant retreat of first year ice to the north of Svalbard. Kara Sea is presently showing a high concentration of Spring ice with the River Ob still ice bound. Arctic Basin still showing above the mean average. Lets hope this continues into the summer months. Will be watching developments closely.

C

This is very interesting indeed. It seems like the increased sea ice concentration has put an end (for now) to the record breaking warmth at Svalbard. In fact april this year, although above the 61-90 mean, was 9,4 C colder than last april. april this year was effectively the coldest month of the winter.

[beng]

This is very interesting indeed. It seems like the increased sea ice concentration has put an end (for now) to the record breaking warmth at Svalbard. In fact april this year, although above the 61-90 mean, was 9,4 C colder than last april. april this year was effectively the coldest month of the winter.

Thanks SH - that's astonishing! Firstly that it could be 9c colder than the previous April - but secondly astonishing as to how warm (relatively) the previous April up there must have been.

Thanks to Carinthian for keeping this thread going too - quite interesting that the ice melt this year seems a bit slower than last year - maybe due to the big positive AO last winter?

[oldsnowywizard]

really interesting debates going on in here!

overview time..

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

an increase in ice levels slightly and doing better than last year.

Arctic basin -http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.1.html

slightly above the mean and ice levels are apparently highest this year and on the up....

laptev sea - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.8.html

down on last year and declining

bearing sea - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.2.html

above the mean but declining

east siberian - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.9.html

slightly above the mean, up on last year

chukchi sea - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM....region.10.html

slightly down on last year, but an upward trend

Baffin - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.4.html

at mean levels, much better than last year

beaufort sea - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM....region.11.html

at the mean level

greenland sea - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.5.html

better than last year but still below the mean

canadian archipelago - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM....region.12.html

still above the mean

barents sea - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.6.html

up on last year, on the rise, but way down on the mean

hudson bay - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM....region.13.html

up on last year, below the mean

kara sea - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.7.html

up on last year, below the mean, on the rise

subject to usual ts and cs of cryosphere site usage...

[carinthian]

Thanks Old Snowy Wizard and Scandi- High for the updates.

Westerly winds during much of April brought the ice edge very close to the shore line of NW Iceland with some considerable new ice formation. Since the end of April and into May, NEly winds have moved the ice edge further out into the Denmark Strait. The prolonged NEly around Svalbard and the N. Barent has allowed concentrated ice to remain close to much of the Northern and Eastern Archipelago with the main polar ice edge making a little further progress southwards.

C

[carinthian]

Thanks Old Snowy Wizard and Scandi- High for the updates.

Westerly winds during much of April brought the ice edge very close to the shore line of NW Iceland with some considerable new ice formation. Since the end of April and into May, NEly winds have moved the ice edge further out into the Denmark Strait. The prolonged NEly around Svalbard and the N. Barent has allowed concentrated ice to remain close to much of the Northern and Eastern Archipelago with the main polar ice edge making a little further progress southwards.

C

Hi,

Further to the above, the very latest ice charts from the North Barent show a broad polar ice edge ( mainly composed of first year ice) to be generally advanced by at least 250 miles compared to this time last year. The" cold spring" continues through much of the higher Arctic.

C

[carinthian]

Hi,

Further to the above, the very latest ice charts from the North Barent show a broad polar ice edge ( mainly composed of first year ice) to be generally advanced by at least 250 miles compared to this time last year. The" cold spring" continues through much of the higher Arctic.

C

In contrast to the above report, recent warm temperatures in the Lower Verkhoyansky Highlands has induced rapid snow melt in that region. This has the affect of increasing the volume of fresh water and ice floes into the vast Lena Delta. Hence, the Laptev Sea is showing the first signs of ice break up in the Arctic Rim.

C

[oldsnowywizard]

quick update

over all N sea ice levels - still down on the mean, but better than last year.

Arctic Basin, Bearing sea, east Siberian Sea, chuckchi sea, Baffin, Beaufort, canadian Archipelago are all above or equal to the mean ice levels,

all other areas are below. Conditions look set to warm up a bit more in the arctic regions but on the whole in todays day and age, not too bad.

be interesting to see what happens in the summer months

[trevw]

am confused, I read this from a link on the NSIDC site:

http://www.adn.com/life/story/8881213p-8781543c.html

"This April has the lowest sea ice extent on record of any April we've seen before," said Mark Serreze, a sea-ice specialist and senior research scientist with the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder,

Colo. "We're setting ourselves up this summer for a very large ice loss."

sounds more like a comment from last year? but it is definitely dated 2007 - have I missed something, cryosphere seems to have shown the area as greater than last year from the start I thought... or is this a difference between area and extent.. :unsure:

[Iceberg]

Temps have been holding up well (or holding down well anyway) in the artic (It's quite surprising that levels are quite as low as they are currently).

However the next 7-10 days looks to see the start of the Artic Summer, once the cold goes it won't come back until October.

[Optimus Prime]

I don't understand where these people get their record low ice levels from. Ice extent in the arctic is very slightly larger then normal;

And still not showing signs of ice-loss just yet.

[Iceberg]

That's only the artic basin though and not at all representive of NH Ice atm.

This link gives a better picture.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

Basin ice because it's only the centre doesn't tend to start melting until a good 2 to 3 months after the rest.

Sorry it's

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

For my own knowledge I've just looked up where the artic basin is.

It's the green bit in the middle

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

500'000 km2 up on last year.

Land area equivalent to European France.

[Iceberg]

Indeed it is quite a bit up from last year currently, that's about 2 weeks worth of melt., still around 1,000,000 down from the average though.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Indeed it is quite a bit up from last year currently, that's about 2 weeks worth of melt., still around 1,000,000 down from the average though.

Although as Carinthian reminds us, the average line is slightly innaccurate as measurements once included ice-slush and such that today is not counted as ice. So the line should be a bit lower - how much I don't know, but probably not much.

We are significantly down on 30 year measured average but it's quite clear already this completely opposite to what one would expect if last year "we passed the tipping point of Global Warming" - or had a "Climatic lurch" as someone memorably put it.

One is surprised a second time over when one considers the high SSTs in the North Atlantic. Ice retention is due to cold atmosphere, with no help from favourable SSTs.