Carinthians latest Arctic reports

[derrylynne]

Just to add welcome back carinthian. I don't post on this thread but like many avidly read your reports. They are to me very interesting and it is good that someone with your expertise takes the time to post on this forum….

[John Cox]

Hi ,

Kippure usually posts a link to the Barrow Sea Ice web -cam. I will contact him, or can anyone eles provide a post link ? Will get it for you.

C

Hi tribe3000 & Carinth.

Just did a google for you.

Is this what you are looking for?

http://www.gi.alaska.edu/snowice/sea-lake-...row_webcam.html

Edited November 14, 2006 by John Cox

[carinthian]

Just to add welcome back carinthian. I don't post on this thread but like many avidly read your reports. They are to me very interesting and it is good that someone with your expertise takes the time to post on this forum….

Welcome to the thread Derrylynne (any connections to the old country ) Like the photos and story on your web- site. Fascinating stuff.Please contribute to to thread when ever you want. Glad you find it interesting.

C

[Guest Viking141]

Welcome back Carinth. Glad you're back.

[Anti-Mild]

I can't say anymore than evryone else has already done but I'll say it anyway: welcome back carinthian! Your ice reports are a great read and lets hope that things stay sensible!!

AM

[West is Best]

The reports I produce are based on a combination of years of experience,satellite images, land based Arctic Rim, Coastal guard, plane- helicopter surveillance , ice breaker reports and a wealth of superb information provided by buddies at the DMI climat department.

The object of these reports is to provide the very latest updates and descriptive analysis and explanatory where possible, however,when controversial topics arise it is not always possible to give consideration to all views held and I will not been drawn into justifying my reports, as the fun will again be taken away.

I'm delighted that you have decided to return Carinthian. Please note that it was not just your 'frozen north' fraternity who wanted you back. It would be a shame to think those one agrees with are the only ones who show respect and support. I for one am delighted at this decision.

That having been said, and whilst this is fun, please do justify your opinions. Why is this important? It is in all walks of life, and keeps one's mind attuned. I think in something so important as arctic ice levels it's very useful to know how one is arriving at one's conclusions, lest the more suspicious think one is just making it up. In my own field the Gnostics were one of the first to claim 'secret knowledge', and in the long run it did no-one any favours, least of all them. It also helps the rest of us understand, and that's also important.

But welcome back with this thread, and I trust that the debates will continue in a good friendly and respectful spirit. There is much to play for on planet earth, and if GW is to be believed it's in the arctic and antarctic circles that the effects are most keenly to be felt. Or not?!

Edited November 14, 2006 by West is Best

[carinthian]

Welcome back Carinth. Glad you're back.

Hi Viking141.

Thankyou to you. A friendly forum seems to be returning. Speak to you later. Got a dominoes match at the pub. 5&3s plus a few pints of lager. All we need now is a bit of the white stuff and everything will be perfect, if you what I mean.

Best Regards,

C

[Snowly does it]

Incredibly pleased to see this thread here tonight. Welcome back, yours is one of the gems of this community.

[John Cox]

Hi snowmaiden,

Carinthian asked me to keep an eye on things while he is out for a couple of hours.

On his behalf I would like to thank you and all well wishers for your support and interest in this topic. Your support means a lot to him.

Edited November 14, 2006 by John Cox

[The PIT]

Welcome back. I may not say much in these threads but I enjoy reading them.

[John Cox]

Hi Tamara,

Great to see you posting again. Your well thought out input is so valuable to nw and I know Carinthian welcomes your valuable input on his thread.

Later in the evening I am sure he will comment further.

Regards,

John

The Pit,

On behalf of Carinth, Thanks for your kind words.

[John Cox]

Yes, we look like having a wintry end to the week.

Your turn will come when the wind blows from the east.

[Polar Continental]

Latest Report as 14/11/06

Its nice to be back reporting. The intense cold that has developed over the past few weeks over Greenland now shows signs of pushing southwards. A very cold pool of air has pushed into the Iceland Basin, -10C in Jan Mayen and -18C in Svalbard, both about 5C below the mid - November average. What a comparison to the prolonged Autumn warmth affecting much of Europe !

Often in this situation and what we call in the trade, a strong longwave trough develops to the west of the British Isles and the dividing line is along the jet windfield which moves tropical airmass thousands of miles polewards out N. Africa and the tropics, whilst on the other hand airmass from the frozen north is pushed well south into the Atlantic Ocean. It now appears we are in the longitudal battle ground over this coming week.

The rate of new ice formation has reached its peak. It now takes longer for renewed formation where the ocean is deeper and warmer ( N. Atlantic drift influence ) however, the three major cold pools are now well established over Greenland, Northern Siberia and Alaska and intense cold will soon advance the polar ice edge, slowly but surely further southwards.

Web cam shots will show that the polar ice edge has now made landfall onto Point Barrow in the Canadian Sector.

In the longer term, the Greenland cold spell looks like it may ease, whilst no zonality and maritime influences in Russia may give rise to the "beast from the east."

C

Evening everyone, evening Carinth, good to see you back and thanks for your latest update,

Well no real signs of anything wintry coming our way from the Arctic in the short term, apart from a half hearted effort at the weekend, (But it is early days yet, plenty of time ) it’s almost as if the fridge door has been opened just a fraction and quickly shut again and waft of cold air has managed to escape. Looking in to FI the back door shown to be burst wide open and the full force of an arctic incursion is thrust upon us, now that would be a good start to the winter.

Paul

[frozen_north]

Well untill Hudson Bay in canada starts to freeze over there arent going to be any large increases in the amount of sea ice in the near future. The re-formation of sea ice in Hudson bay is probably going to be very late this year even though it is late already. The problem is the warm anomolies and that the cold air has been mostly on the Russian side of the Artic so far this season which has prevented the cooling of the sea taking place.

Looking ahead there is going to be limited ice development in the next couple of days as mild air moves up from the South of Canada, although the Western side of the Bay will still be in relatively cold air. I suspect this year will be another year for all those GW people to shout about the late development of sea ice in Hudson Bay and that the Polar bears are suffering.

[Guest Viking141]

Thanks for the update Carinth. Fully agree with Tamara, looking good just a little more patience required!

[John Cox]

Well untill Hudson Bay in canada starts to freeze over there arent going to be any large increases in the amount of sea ice in the near future. The re-formation of sea ice in Hudson bay is probably going to be very late this year even though it is late already. The problem is the warm anomolies and that the cold air has been mostly on the Russian side of the Artic so far this season which has prevented the cooling of the sea taking place.

Looking ahead there is going to be limited ice development in the next couple of days as mild air moves up from the South of Canada, although the Western side of the Bay will still be in relatively cold air. I suspect this year will be another year for all those GW people to shout about the late development of sea ice in Hudson Bay and that the Polar bears are suffering.

Hi Frozen North,

Thanks for this detailed Hudson Bay update.

All arctic reports are welcome and even if the poor polar bears feel too warm (and i do feel sorry for them) as long as we get polar blasts nearer to home I for one will be happy. All the reports from the different polar regions go to make up the full picture so please keep your updates from these regions coming (on behalf of C).

[Anti-Mild]

Here's a quick link for the current state of the ice formation in Hudson Bay and the southern Canadian archipelago:

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/seaice/analysis/bear.gif

[John Cox]

Evening everyone, evening Carinth, good to see you back and thanks for your latest update,

Well no real signs of anything wintry coming our way from the Arctic in the short term, apart from a half hearted effort at the weekend, (But it is early days yet, plenty of time ) it's almost as if the fridge door has been opened just a fraction and quickly shut again and waft of cold air has managed to escape. Looking in to FI the back door shown to be burst wide open and the full force of an arctic incursion is thrust upon us, now that would be a good start to the winter.

Paul

Hi Paul,

On behalf of Carinth, thanks and your input like all others is so welcome.

I agree that the cold air mass is tantalising close. In fact for us lucky guys in Ireland we should get our first taste of winter later in the week. Maybe not snow but close.

The arctic flood gates hopefully will open and with much cold pooling in arctic will come our way soon.

[earsnow]

Great news! welcome back Carinthian. Your reports are written with such enthusiasm,i can feel that arctic chill decending on me as i read them

cheers earsnow

[John Cox]

Hi earsnow,

You could almost feel that the cold had retreated for the last couple of days but at least for a start it will descend down the west of the UK this weekend. It must be something to do with Carinthians arctict reports.

Well that's my story anyway.

Carinthian isck now so bye for the moment and keep those reports coming.

[carinthian]

Great news! welcome back Carinthian. Your reports are written with such enthusiasm,i can feel that arctic chill decending on me as i read them

cheers earsnow

wELCOME earsnow,

Look forward to your contributions.

C

[J10]

Nice to see you back carinthian.

Can anyone explain to me why the Canadian Archipelago peak is below the average.

Just seems a little strange. http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.12.jpg

Also is the Kara Sea situation likely to improve in the next couple of days after its recent downturn.

[carinthian]

Evening all,

Whilst we are in the mood. Take a hold of this in Northern Greenland at present -17 and mean wind speed of 70km/h. Some Arctic storm there brewing up, thats for sure. Wonder what the wind chill is anyone ? Alao currently -10c in Jan Mayen, hardly saw that reading there last winter and its still only Autumn . Food for thought!

C

[summer blizzard]

Good report Carinthian, and good to have you back.

Do you still expect a northerly winter??????

[TEITS]

Welcome back. I may not say much in these threads but I enjoy reading them.

Same here. Im delighted to see the return of this thread.