BBC TV Weather Forecasts

[MisfitDog3]

Hmmm...Radio 4 weather forecast this morning was going for a substantial snow event over southern England Wed/Thurs so they obviously believe something is up and coming. The models are still shifting around so plenty of time for a substantial upgrade or, obviously, a downgrade.....

[BristolBaggie]

Bit of gloom and dowm this morning.

Too me it still looks good for Snow certainly across Northern areas although it's not going to be the cold snap of yester years. This run seems to be a downgrade slight upgrade with the Lows sweeping more into France.

Certainly no mild weather on view at the present time.

There is not going to be any snow in Northern areas. This will be a southern event as confirmed by BBC Forecasts this morning.

[Jude_foster]

Radio and TV are now going for a snow Event over S Britain weds into thurs... I say again Southern Britain.... Philip says will stay mostly fine and dry North of the midlands

[snowmadchrisuk]

Taken from www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather. They say 'MAY' and also mention 'LIGHT RAIN'

Monday day

Many parts dry with sunny periods but cloudier in the southeast. Early frost in places and some fog patches, slow to clear. Occasional showers, mainly over northern and eastern parts, wintry on hills. Rather cold in the wind.

Monday night

Dry for most with clear spells but with a few wintry showers, mainly in the east. A widespread, locally sharp frost developing with some fog patches.

Tuesday

After a widespread frost most places will be dry and sunny. Patchy fog in the Severn Valley may be slow to clear. A few wintry showers may run down North Sea coasts. Cold.

Wednesday

Still feeling cold, but this time there will be much more cloud. Light rain or snow may affect southern parts of England and Wales.

[Michael Winston]

Hmmm...Radio 4 weather forecast this morning was going for a substantial snow event over southern England Wed/Thurs so they obviously believe something is up and coming. The models are still shifting around so plenty of time for a substantial upgrade or, obviously, a downgrade.....

Problematically, the Met Office site is saying that the PPN will turn to rain.

I really believe that its too close to call.

Regards,

Mike.

[BristolBaggie]

Radio and TV are now going for a snow Event over S Britain weds into thurs... I say again Southern Britain.... Philip says will stay mostly fine and dry North of the midlands

Poor old Northerners. There was never any chance of snow for Northern areas, this has been showing as a southern event for many days.

[Somerset Squall]

Poor old Northerners. There was never any chance of snow for Northern areas, this has been showing as a southern event for many days.

A southern event of rain and sleet most likely, away from high ground. As for the north, much more likely to see snow in one way or another.

[Hagler]

Poor old Northerners. There was never any chance of snow for Northern areas, this has been showing as a southern event for many days.

Did you see SUNDAY's Countryfile forecast? they were going for a Northern snow event

And as for your "Poor old Northerners" remark I class that as racial abuse <_<

[Somerset Squall]

Did you see SUNDAY's Countryfile forecast? they were going for a Northern snow event

And as for your "Poor old Northerners" remark I class that as racial abuse

I think BristolBaggie is slightly dillusional, letting the extremely small chance of snow down here in the southwest get to his head.

[J10]

5th Feb

Wales - Colder with a Risk of Snow

Tonight mainly clear and dry but with a few wintry showers over NW coasts, temps –5 to 0c.

Tomorrow mainly dry and sunny but maybe damp in the NW with a little rain or sleet edging into the SW later, temps 3-5c.

Wednesday Dry and bright 4-5c.

Thursday temps 4-7 with some snow for south Wales

UK - Thursday Snow for south Wales and southern England, rain for the south coast, temps 3-9c drier and brighter further north.

[J10]

6th Feb

Wales - Snow on Way

Tonight mainly clear and dry but with a few spots of rain or snow pushing westwards across south Wales, temps –5 to 0c.

Tomorrow, sunny in most places after a cold frosty start but ore cloud will amass to the South West later, temps 3-5c.

Wednesday Night into Thursday, a low pressure will edge northwards bringing snow to many parts of south Wales into Thursday morning, with 4-6 inches of snow for the Welsh Valleys, 2-5cm likely for Cardiff and Newport, with the chance of some blizzards in places.

During the day the snow will slowly edge north with perhaps some rain for the far SW later, temps 3-5c.

UK – Mainly dry and frosty to start, with a few snow showers in eastern coatal districts and wintry showers for SW England, temps -4 to-1c in Scotland, -5c to 2c over England and Wales.

Tomorrow mainly sunny in most spots, with further snow showers on the eastern coasts, temps 3-5c. Turning cloudier later in the SW.

Wednesday night into Thursday Rain from the South pushing North and turning to snow quite widely over Wales and inlands parts of southern England, with the heaviest of the snow north of the M4.

During the day the snow will push north and it will slowly turn slightly milder in the south, remaining cold in the north with further snow showers in the east, temps 3-7c

[J10]

7th Feb

Wales - Snow on Way

Tonight Low pressure will edge northwards with snow reaching the south coast at around 10 pm and slowly edging northwards during the night. According to the forecast chart, much of the precipitation will be of snow perhaps rain or sleet on the far south coastal areas, and in the far west, although some snow is possible everywhere. Temps -3 to -1c.

Tomorrow By 8am it should start turning drier in the SW, But with snow still for the SE and much of Mid and North Wales. Total falls are likely to 4-6 inches of snow for the Welsh Valleys, more in places, 2-5cm likely for Cardiff and Newport, with the chance of some blizzards in places.

Turning milder tomorrow afternoon with temps of 2-5c with a only a slow thaw of lying snow.

Thursday night may be Icy with below freezing temps and refreezing of previously melted snow in places, temps -4 to-1c.

[J10]

8th Feb

Tonight After a few showers in the south, it will be a mainly clear night with some fog in places, very frosty and Icy, temps 0-3c.

Tomorrow A Quieter Day with any fog lifting slowly during the day, temps 3-5c But maybe closer to freezing over the snowfields.

Saturday - rain and snow pushing North with snow likely from Mid Wales northwards, Temps 3-6c.

[shuggee]

Just watched the 20:57 News24 forecast - and a marked reduction in forecast temps compared to earlier at 18:27. What were 1ºCs are now -2ºCs overnight (even a 0ºC in Plymouth!) - and mainly 4ºC and 5ºC max tomorrow.

[davehsug]

What's really beginning to annoy me is the use of presenters rather than forecasters for the day's major forecasts. Bless her, but Carol Kirkwood is not a forecaster & unable to bring the small insights & nuances into a forecast that a proper forecaster might.

I reaslise that the breakfast forecast (except Friday for some reason), is the preserve of the female presenter, but this is now creeping in to the day's major forecasts. It is a coincidence that they are women & this not an anti-female thing, there have been several excellent female forecasters over the years.

I'm sick of dumbing down! We've already lost the most important forecast of the day to a 30 second snippet in front of poor graphics on a cobbled together screen (all so that the BBC can show 3 minutes of endless trailers for itself!), now we are having the forecasters removed too!

Rant over

Dave

[J10]

Derek was quite candid about the failure of the models last night, and admitted that the front pushed about 50-100 miles further north than expected and this caused today's very heavy snow over much of South Wales.

The latest 1035 forecast has gone for further snow tonghit for south wales after some initial rain before the inevitable thaw starts in earnest in the south later tomoorrow and in the north on Friady.

[willinkent]

On BBC SE Today they have a special article on 1947 winter with never seen footage of whitstable sea freezing, ie local residents footage and it will be on again this evenings local news......

[stumathers]

Does anybody else find it so annoying when watchin the bbc weather that they cut from the early morning weather map to showing the weather in london, belfast, glasgow and cardiff in a list. How am I supposed to know the weather in Sheffield or anywhere else for that matter by seeing what its like in those 4 cities. Its not detailed enough as they are only being precise for the next 12 hours.

[mettalfabrik]

link to a bbc news weather forecast story

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6917519.stm

[johnholmes]

just a £100 million pounds, peanuts I suppose but I, even as an ex met-man, am not convinced that it will be as accurate as Dr Golding promises.

[carinthian]

just a £100 million pounds, peanuts I suppose but I, even as an ex met-man, am not convinced that it will be as accurate as Dr Golding promises.

Jobs now being advertised to work on the new super computer at Exeter (Met Office web site) Come on you young guys go for it. I don't think JH and I will get an interview somehow . Time to change another roll on the teleprinter!

C

[johnholmes]

good heavens are you that old?

[kold weather]

It sounds to me like they are going to try and run some sort of ensemble:

The supercomputer will allow meteorologists to run computer models with a multitude of slight variations.

I suspect to also increase the forecasts accuracy to such a small area they are going to have to increase the resolution of the model as well so thats another good thing, it should hopefully lead to more accurate forecasts.

My only thing that nags in my mind is you could have a million ensemble members pointing to the same thing but if the startig data isn't completely accurate, esp in convective set-ups, then every single one of those ensembles could be wrong. The models are only as good as the data inputed into them and while decent I'm not sure if its good enoughto be able to forecast convection quite like is forecasted.

Still its a good thing and a good step foward!

[carinthian]

It sounds to me like they are going to try and run some sort of ensemble:

I suspect to also increase the forecasts accuracy to such a small area they are going to have to increase the resolution of the model as well so thats another good thing, it should hopefully lead to more accurate forecasts.

My only thing that nags in my mind is you could have a million ensemble members pointing to the same thing but if the startig data isn't completely accurate, esp in convective set-ups, then every single one of those ensembles could be wrong. The models are only as good as the data inputed into them and while decent I'm not sure if its good enoughto be able to forecast convection quite like is forecasted.

Still its a good thing and a good step foward!

[/quote

The accuracy of the super computer forecasts depends upon a constant, reliable and copious material feed and the quality of the formulae projecting it. Improvements in models still rely on the accurracy of real data. 25 years on since the installation at Bracknell of the first high speed Cyber computers, good meteorologists still need considerable human skill to prepare forecasts from these prognostic charts.

C

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Just thought i'd add this in, as its not really model discussion (although partly related).

Fridays BBC forecast (am) was for a sunny day today, and dry. Its cloudy and we've just had a spot of rain.

I do admit though, it cleared up for a short time about 8am.

So, are the BBC to blame? Were they inaccurate?

Simple answer is no. All it does is show that even 48 hours away, things can change. Like we do on the model discussion, they do the same using the charts, historical data and human input (which lets be fair, the BBC are METO trained, so I would say the later input is of a high degree). Maybe more, i'm obviously not from the METO.

The point being, and I cant remember who mentioned it (I think it was our very own Mr John Holmes), things can diverge even at T+0.