Annual CET 2007

[Snowly does it]

Can't remember if the competition has an 'annual' prediciton, so I am making this thread for people to predict the annual CET.

My basis for prediction is taking the last 10 years monthly averages and adding 0.25 degrees for the lurch to mild recently seen plus an early El Nino.

This gives a prediction (which I will not be changing) of 10.74

Edit - lol, I changed it due to not being able to add 0.25 to 10.49 properly!

Edited January 6, 2007 by snowmaiden

[Weather-history]

If you go back to the El-Nino of 1997-98, you may have thought that would have been the warmest year on record after the first 3 months of that year but the summer didn't play ball.

After the first 3 months of 2006, I wouldn't have guess that to be the warmest year.

Not an easy thing to predict.

[Stratos Ferric]

Assuming the Nino stays with us, and that we don't get a wet summer (we could), then scarily enough 11C is well within grasp. With the start we've had to the winter 11c for the 12 months to June 07 is definitely odds on now in my book.

Certainly don't see an annual value below 10.5C, and despite the remarkable H2 warmth this year - which I don't see being repeated (at least to such an extreme) - c.f. last year I don't see the first six months being as cool either, hence another record year is possible. Assuming a nino effect (but assuming some of late last year's warmth was helped by the same feature) I'm going to punt for...

10.9C for the year...for the 11 months to June I reckon around 11-11.05C.

Edited January 6, 2007 by Stratos Ferric

[paul tall]

Whats your 10.9 for Stratos, the year 2007, or H2 2006 + H1 2007?

My prediction is for 10.2º for 2007, as no doubt after a mild winter we'll end up with a disappointing spring and summer.

[Bobby]

With a similar method to snowmaiden, I'll go for an annual CET 10.71 for the year of 2007.

[Wynn D Woo]

With the huge amount of warmth around in the northern hemisphere I am going to plump for 11.1C, it may be a colder start to spring but i think summer and autumn are again going to be well above average.

that prediction should see us now have one of the coolest years on record

[summer blizzard]

While i am not going to make a punt until the 10th, we should note a few things for next year going by anologues...

Easterly QBO is likely for the majority of the year.

Neutral or La Nina conditions are also likely for next year.

Negative AO is likely for the majority of next year.

Neutral PDO is likely next year.

Given these four major factors, i would expect an above average first quater to 2007 however as El Nino and the westerly QBO will have relaxed somewhat by the second quater of 2007, i would expect that period to be around average, with in contrast to recent years, the highest chance of a below average June in around five years as the AO is likely to dip sharply negative towards the end of the second quater of 2005, i would then expect the third quater of 2007 to be very wet as a La Nina begins to develop in association with an easterly QBO, though still slightly above average due to a neutral PDO, despite a negative AO, the fourth quater of 2005 is where i expect the biggest shock to the system to occur as the PDO becomes negative, backing up the easterly QBO/La Nino influence in bringing about a below average fourth quater to 2007.

I weill make an official punt on the 10th, but at the current time i am thinking...

Q1 2007 - 1C above average

Q2 2007 - 0.5C above average

Q3 2007 - 0.5C above average

Q4 2006 - 1C below average

2007 - 0.25C above average (within 0.05C of 10C)

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'll plump for a rather ordinary (for the modern era) 10.59C.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Hi,

Well with 2007 now in full swing i think i will join in in predicting 2007's annual CET. Just looking at the metoffice article on this years encreadable warmth i then looked at some graphs on the following pages. There seems to be a three year fall in annual cet every 5 years. We are now in the third year enwhich i predict to be colder than 2007. below is my raw predictions for 2007:

Jan- 4.9

Feb- 3.5

Mar- 7

Apr- 8

May- 15

Jun- 15

Jul- 17

Aug- 16

Sep- 14

Oct- 14

Nov- 8

Dec- 4

Mean annual temperature 10.53

so as you can see not a too warm year but still warm. MAbey a white xmas...... (only joking before you shout at me)

SM06

[Joneseye]

Count me in for 10.69..

[Gavin P]

Well this is tough. I expected a cold start to 2007, but that in receding by the day, in my mind. Not sure what happens later in the year, but a hot summer seems quite reasonable to me. I'll predict a very warm 10.8.

Out of interest, the period April 2006 to April 1007 could well achieve an 11+ yearly CET, for the first time since November 94 to November 95 - Dependning on whether we get a cold February or March, I wouldn't be surprised to see it exceed the 94-95 figure actually.

Edited January 6, 2007 by Gavin P

[SteveB]

11.5c for me. It just keeps getting warmer and warmer.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Since every year from 2002 onward has been getting evermore warmer due to Anthrogenic Greenhouse Warming, together with the El Nino 2006-2007 and increased solar activity - I have decided to give a possible Annual C.E.T of 11.8c for 2007.

[sundog]

i would go for 10.3. i think this year will be colder overall then last year. i think the 2nd half of 2007 will be somewhat cooler then the 2nd half of 2006, and i think we could well have a coolish summer. i do think that the first half of 2007 could be rather warm however but a cooler 2nd half to 2007 will balance things out somewhat. well thats my best guess anyway

[Mr Maunder]

Lets have a bit of decorum here - 10.42c.

I'm expecting the El Nino influence to decline and for Autumn/Early Winter to be cooler than 2006 - which is not really a very brave call!

MM

[kold weather]

El nino will be long gone by the summer i expect, by that time and by the end of the year we could wlel be close to a La nina I'd guess, probably not strong mind you... If you were to take the year as a whole though I'd guess it'll be just neutral.

Saying that this winter has been a perfect match so far for 1995, tohugh that did have a super summer so I wouldn't call for that sor tof summer, simply because ven nowadays they arwe't that common. I think I'll go for 10.35, but with a known bias for being a little low!

[Optimus Prime]

10.99 to be awkward.

[cheeky_monkey]

after a warm start im goin for an average spring and summer..and a more seasonal autmn...cet = 10.1c

[Calrissian]

11.5c for me. It just keeps getting warmer and warmer.

I'll see your 11.5, and raise you 0.45

UK climate change continues...

Calrissian: 11.95 CET for 2007

[West is Best]

11.01C for me. Just breaking the 11C barrier. I'm not convinced that we're in for a summer like the last one ...

[paul tall]

Is that your way of saying winter is going to be ultra mild?

[Snowly does it]

I'll see your 11.5, and raise you 0.45

UK climate change continues...

Calrissian: 11.95 CET for 2007

If it hits 11.95 I will start worrying about humanity surviving past 2010, so whilst I wish you luck with your estimation, I hope it doesn't come off!

[Calrissian]

Ha, yes, I hope I am wrong, but I really think 11.5 is relatively easy to pass. With just a couple of 'reasonable' months, and a summer like last year, we'll get 11.5

As for 11.95, well, I just felt like being a little provocative. Something to aim for, right?

Calrissian: sees the future

[kold weather]

Calrissian, had it not been for a cold March and close to average Jan and Feb I dare say we'd have quite easily been over 11C, esp had we had a winter like this one presently.

I have just a sneaky feeling this year could be very warm overall and be more like this year. i really can't see the summer being quite like that but should still be above average.

If i was to take a very long range guess, this would be it:

Feb- +0.7C

Mar- +1.1C

Apr- -0.2C

May- +1.3C

Jun- +0.9

Jul- +0.4C

Aug- +1.9C

Sep- +1.0C

Oct- +0.4C

Nov- -0.1C

Dec- -1.2C

Main year I'm following is 94-95, esp given El nino is very similar and so is the global pattern over the last 2 months, of course that led to a very intresting year.

Globally one of the warmest ever, but the el nino may not hang on long enough to secure this so I'll go for the 2nd warmest ever.

ironic that nearly 6 months ago I said this:

One thing I'll also say, next time we get a strong El Nino, we'll see a 11C CET for a year.

Got 10.8C with a mod El nino that was also hindered by a weak La Nina at the start, so 11C wouldn't be too far off the truth!

Just a shame I didn't think it'd be as strong as its turned out to be.

Edited January 7, 2007 by kold weather

[Weather-history]

Pure guess but I'm going for 10.46

Predicting a seasonal CET is hard enough but for a whole year? Not easy, only takes one month to stitch you up.