Annual CET 2007

[Roger J Smith]

Due to the rapid shift in the position of the NMP since 1990, I tend to think the christmas pudding of very warm years in Europe is more of a natural than man-made phenomenon, not that this would substantially alter the punt for an annual mean temperature, except to say that if it were more natural than human-related, you couldn't necessarily factor in a naturally cold year tempered by human global warming, but rather, expect a whole shift in the climatic regime.

I think this shift may have passed some critical point around 2002-03 in terms of not just shading the old regime differently but yanking (there, I blamed the Americans) the whole global pattern to the WNW of where it formerly sat. In your case, that places the former average climate of about Geneva or Lyon closer to where you are, tempered by the Atlantic influence and the fact that the sun is not substantially warmer than before (just a tiny bit warmer according to some research, I discount this).

Bottom line then is clear -- add about 0.5 to 0.8 C degrees to the previous normals, such as 1961-90, I suppose 1971-2000 would begin to show this upswing, but not that much. Looking at some other data, I have the feeling this year will feature the same kind of prolific warmth 75% of the time that 2006 displayed. People in the future may refer to 2005 as "that really cold year near the beginning of the century."

I will bet my expensive sports car collection (yet to be acquired) that the annual CET is in the range of 11.00 to 11.15 -- larger increases seem possible but not highly plausible, such benchmarks tend to come rather slowly. And the trend could then flatten out after a while because there is only so much further away from Europe the NMP can drift before it starts coming at you from the other direction, which would be a whole different kettle of fish.

[Terminal Moraine]

I will bet my expensive sports car collection (yet to be acquired) that the annual CET is in the range of 11.00 to 11.15 -- larger increases seem possible but not highly plausible, such benchmarks tend to come rather slowly. And the trend could then flatten out after a while because there is only so much further away from Europe the NMP can drift before it starts coming at you from the other direction, which would be a whole different kettle of fish.

Hmm, very interesting, Roger. And how long will it be before it starts to come at us from the other side? Bearing in mind ,if I'm very fortunate, I have another 46 years before the queen sends her telegram.

Is it worth me even thinking about?

T.M

[Hywel]

10.4

[memories of 63]

My twopenny worth

10.39

[Lettucing Gutted]

Sorry for asking but what is NMP short for?

[acbrixton]

Sorry for asking but what is NMP short for?

North Magnetic Pole (which changes position year to year as opposed to the "true" North Pole): Roger's theory of medium to long range forecasting seems to involve a consideration of the effects of gravity and electro-magnetic forces.

Regards

ACB

[Lettucing Gutted]

Wouldn't wet ground 'save up' high temp over a mild winter and give us a head start next year - oops I mean this year! (?)

I'm wondering if the surface moisture wouldn't dissapear quite readily, as it seems to in my (clayish) garden - or does the deeper moisture continue wicking to the surface? Depends on soil type maybe??

Mind you, were not exactly getting more exposed soil surfaces as time goes on.

Edit; oh, we probably are...

That is true because water or wet ground is a very good heat store. It has a greater capacity for storing or saving heat than dry ground has. As well as saving up heat from a mild winter ready for a hot summer, wet ground can also save heat from a hot summer thus making a mild winter more likely to follow than a cold one.

North Magnetic Pole (which changes position year to year as opposed to the "true" North Pole): Roger's theory of medium to long range forecasting seems to involve a consideration of the effects of gravity and electro-magnetic forces.

Regards

ACB

Thankyou acbrixton

Edited January 15, 2007 by Craig Evans

[Mr Sleet]

10.6 C

[summer blizzard]

Here is my 2007 CET forecast.

January: 6.7C (2.5C above average, warmest since 1983)*

February: 4.7C (0.5C above average, warmest since 2004)

March: 9.3C (3C above average, warmest on record)

April: 10.6C (2.5C above average, warmest since 1865)*

May: 13.2C (1.9C above average, coolest since 1992)*

June: 15.1C (1C above average, coolest since 2002)

July: 17.1C (0.6C above average, coolest since 2005)

August: 16C (0.2C below average, coolest since 1998)

September: 13.4C (0.3C below average, coolest since 2001)

October: 12.9C (2.5C above average, coolest since 2004)*

November: 10C (3.1C above average, warmest since 1994)*

December: 8.6C (3.5C above average, warmest on record)

My 2007 CET forecast at this stage is... 11.47C, with a 0.05C margin of error.

Summary...

2 below average months

10 above average months

2 record warm months

7 very warm months (1.5C+ anomolous values)

[Gavin P]

Considering the last few years have shown only very gradual increase's, I just can't see the CET dramtically shooting up by a full 0.5c from 2006, summer blizzard. Maybe we will see an 11.0 or 11.1 at the very most, but 11.4 seems rather a big leap, to me.

I actually suspect that 2007 will be ever so slightly down on 2006. Still well above average and well in the 10's, but I don't think we're going to reach quite the exceptional levels of last year. As ever, we'll see.

Edited January 24, 2007 by Gavin P

[Don]

Here is my 2007 CET forecast.

January: 6.7C (2.5C above average, warmest since 1983)*

February: 4.7C (0.5C above average, warmest since 2004)

March: 9.3C (3C above average, warmest on record)

April: 10.6C (2.5C above average, warmest since 1865)*

May: 13.2C (1.9C above average, coolest since 1992)*

June: 15.1C (1C above average, coolest since 2002)

July: 17.1C (0.6C above average, coolest since 2005)

August: 16C (0.2C below average, coolest since 1998)

September: 13.4C (0.3C below average, coolest since 2001)

October: 12.9C (2.5C above average, coolest since 2004)*

November: 10C (3.1C above average, warmest since 1994)*

December: 8.6C (3.5C above average, warmest on record)

My 2007 CET forecast at this stage is... 11.47C, with a 0.05C margin of error.

Summary...

2 below average months

10 above average months

2 record warm months

7 very warm months (1.5C+ anomolous values)

What a horrible year of weather if that comes off! Mind you, you probably it looks pretty feasible IMO, going by our recent weather.

[Stu_London]

What a horrible year of weather if that comes off! Mind you, you probably it looks pretty feasible IMO, going by our recent weather.

I have a sneaky suspicion that one of our super volcanoes will blow between now and the end of April.

I cool clouldy summer and an early autumn/winter period will result in an annual CET of....

9.96C

tell me that isn't the lowest punt to date (I am sure Murr will post lower anyway)

[Optimus Prime]

How can May: 13.2C be the coolest since 1992 SB? Don't you meen the warmest since 1992?

If that lot came off it would be as remarkable as...anything that has ever happened that's remarkable in weather.

[summer blizzard]

Sorry, May should read the warmest since 1992.

Again, i should of put a January prediction of 1.7C, so as not to give myself an advantage, so my actual prediction should of been 11.05C, with a 0.05C margin of error.

Edited January 25, 2007 by summer blizzard

[Optimus Prime]

Anyway seeing as SB did the whole year I'll attempt the same fate.

January; 6.8c (+2.6c)

February; 7.2c (+3.0c)

March; 5.5c (-0.8c)

April; 8.4c (+0.3c)

May; 10.1c (-1.1c)

June; 15.5c (+1.3c)

July; 17.0c (+0.5c)

August; 15.9c (-0.3c)

September; 13.9c (+0.2c)

October; 12.3c (+1.9c)

November; 9.4c (+2.5c)

December; 2.8c (-2.3c)

Winter (only January and February) may have a combined average temperature off; 7.0c which is +2.8c from the 71-000 norm.

Spring may have an average temperature off; 8.0c which is -0.5c from the 71-000 norm.

Summer may have an average temperature off; 16.1c which is +0.5c from the 71-000 norm.

(Including December) Autumn may have an average temperature off; 9.6c which is +0.6c from the 71-000 norm.

I suspect 2007 will have an average temperature off 10.4c - 11.0c (the highest) with a 3.0c margin or error.

[summer blizzard]

S4lancia: 10.07C

Cheeky Monkey: 10.1C

ChrisL: 10.11C

Paul Tall: 10.2C

Anti-Mild: 10.28C

Sundog: 10.3C

Kold Weather: 10.35C

Mr Maunder: 10.42C

Mr Data: 10.46C

nick F: 10.5C

Snow-Man2006: 10.53C

Atlantic Flamethrower: 10.55C

Thundery Wintry Showers: 10.59C

Reef: 10.61C

Joneseye: 10.69C

Magpie: 10.71C

Snowmaiden: 10.74C

Gavin P: 10.8C

Stratos Ferric: 10.9C

Optimus Prime: 10.99C

The Pit: 11C

West Is Best: 11.01C

Windswept: 11.1C

Stephen Prudence: 11.1C

Parmenides3: 11.1C

SteveB: 11.5C

Craig Evans: 11.8C

Calrissian: 11.95C

[Calrissian]

I suspect 2007 will have an average temperature off 10.4c - 11.0c (the highest) with a 3.0c margin or error.

Hmm, everything was going so good until that last line. 3c error ?

--

Despite a little snow these past few days, January is still yet another in the long line of endlessly mild months. Sure, we'll probaby get a couple of below average months this year, but most of them will be somewhat about the 30yr trend lines.

I do like reading the monthly predictions, if any of them come off, it'll be an interesting year for sure.

Calrissian: holding at his original crazy number.

[eddie]

Here is my pseudo-science CET guess:

Wikipedia reckons the global temperature went up by 0.6C in 20th Century.

YEAR CET average for past 10 years=10.46C

From glancing at the UK Yearly CET data I reckon we have gone up by about 1C which is 0.4C higher than the global average. This suggests that some of the warming we have seen is due to the prevailing synoptics rather than the base temperature of the earth.

I believe this means we could still get a period of 10 years with average cet of 10.06(ish)

Therefore my guess is 9.9C

[Guest Mike W]

I agree with SB's forecast, except I don't think September and August will get a CET as LOW as what you forecast, never mind 13.4 happening, I can't even see 14.4, more like 15-16.4 if last year is anything to go by, even if last year was a trend starter, I can't see this September being any lower than a high 14 CET and August I I can't getting lower than a mid 16 CET. Tghe rest though wouldn't surprise me after what happened last year, before last year I would think it would look very unlikely, not now though. One thing I think should and could happen this year is to get all 12 months above the 71-00 CET average and certainly all above the 61-90. Looking at last year's average a Annaul CEt like what it acheived, you would have expected it to get all 12 above aswell.

Edited January 25, 2007 by Mike W

[Stargazer]

For some reason I didn't make the list . My pure guesswork still gives 10.49.

[summer blizzard]

Sorry, i only made the list from the first two pages of the thread, i'll update the rest when i have time on my hands tommorow.

[Weather-history]

Here is my 2007 CET forecast.

January: 6.7C (2.5C above average, warmest since 1983)*

February: 4.7C (0.5C above average, warmest since 2004)

March: 9.3C (3C above average, warmest on record)

April: 10.6C (2.5C above average, warmest since 1865)*

May: 13.2C (1.9C above average, coolest since 1992)*

June: 15.1C (1C above average, coolest since 2002)

July: 17.1C (0.6C above average, coolest since 2005)

August: 16C (0.2C below average, coolest since 1998)

September: 13.4C (0.3C below average, coolest since 2001)

October: 12.9C (2.5C above average, coolest since 2004)*

November: 10C (3.1C above average, warmest since 1994)*

December: 8.6C (3.5C above average, warmest on record)

My 2007 CET forecast at this stage is... 11.47C, with a 0.05C margin of error.

Summary...

2 below average months

10 above average months

2 record warm months

7 very warm months (1.5C+ anomolous values)

I don't want to be too critical SB but I've noticed you tend to "exaggerate" your predictions, they seem to be towards the extremes, don't know why that is but I've noticed it in quite a few of your forecasts of the past

Edited January 29, 2007 by Mr_Data

[summer blizzard]

My forecasts from May onwards are anologue based, so i have little confidence from May onwards.

While i did have a tendacy to exxagerate my forecasts until late 2005, i now back my teleconnection forecasts, which point to the figures in February, March and April.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'll stick with my 10.59C but add specific months in, compared to 1971-2000 averages:

January 6.9 (+2.7)

February 4.3 (+0.1)

March 6.4 (+0.1)

April 9.4 (+1.3)

May 12.5 (+1.2)

June 14.6 (+0.5)

July 16.0 (-0.5)

August 18.1 (+1.9)

September 14.9 (+1.2)

October 10.9 (+0.5)

November 7.9 (+1.0)

December 5.2 (+0.1)

Year 10.59

NOTE: 4.3 is not my February CET prediction- I will be submitting that in the February CET thread on 31 January after checking out all of the variables! However, the 4.3C at least shows the direction in which I think February might go.

[Upgrade]

I'm predicting warmth throughout the year and a CET of 12 deg C