Annual CET 2007

[ukmoose]

Here you go:

eddie:9.9

Stu London:9.96

S4lancia: 10.07C

Cheeky Monkey: 10.1C

ChrisL: 10.11C

Paul Tall: 10.2C

Anti-Mild: 10.28C

Sundog: 10.3C

Kold Weather: 10.35C

Terminal Moraine:10.4

Mr Maunder: 10.42C

Mr Data: 10.46C

Blast from the Past:10.48

Stargazer:10.49

nick F: 10.5C

Snow-Man2006: 10.53C

Thundery Wintry Showers: 10.59C

Don:10.6

Reef: 10.61C

Summer Blizzard:10.68

Joneseye: 10.69C

Magpie: 10.71C

Snowmaiden: 10.74C

Gavin P: 10.8C

Stratos Ferric: 10.9C

Somerset Squall:10.9

Bessy:10.97

Optimus Prime: 10.99C

The Pit: 11C

West Is Best: 11.01C

Iceberg:11.01

high ground birm:11.05

Windswept: 11.1C

Stephen Prudence: 11.1C

Parmenides3: 11.1C

Roger J Smith:11.1

SteveB: 11.5C

Atlantic Flamethrower:11.55

Ukmoose:11.79

Craig Evans: 11.8C

Calrissian: 11.95C

jimmyay:12

How's that?

The current CET is averaging 8.8 according to the NW tracker. If all of the remaining months came in at long term average values, that would put the annual CET for 2007 at 10.58.

I would suggest that all of you below that figure are now out of the picture. TWS just scrapes in at 10.59 but an awful lot of people seem to have fallen at Canal Turn.

Moose

[Thundery wintry showers]

The current CET is averaging 8.8 according to the NW tracker. If all of the remaining months came in at long term average values, that would put the annual CET for 2007 at 10.58.

I would suggest that all of you below that figure are now out of the picture. TWS just scrapes in at 10.59 but an awful lot of people seem to have fallen at Canal Turn.

Moose

That is completely ridiculous- it means that even an average set of months would result in a mean annual CET close to the record that stood prior to last year! The above-averageness has certainly stepped up somewhat over the past year.

[ukmoose]

That is completely ridiculous- it means that even an average set of months would result in a mean annual CET close to the record that stood prior to last year! The above-averageness has certainly stepped up somewhat over the past year.

TWS, I'm not sure where you are coming from here.

Don't forget we are already way above the long term average after just 5 months. Currently 8.81 degrees instead of a long term average of 6.82 degrees - very nearly 2 degrees above the average already and it will quite probably be above 2 degrees by the end of May. Therefore, we only need to come in at average for the rest of the year to still be 'well above average'.

The chances of the remaining 7 months coming in at average or below are, let's face it, not good. If they did come in at exactly average, we would return a CET of 10.579 rounded to 10.58. The average long term CET is around 9.75 I believe.

My point was that anyone who has made a return of below 10.58 will most probably be out of the running for the annual CET trophy.

Regards,

Moose

[Nick H]

an awful lot of people seem to have fallen at Canal Turn.

Fallen at Foinavon more like

I imagine TWS was referring to the situation we find ourselves in now as ridiculous (i.e. that only average months are needed from now til y/e to break the record), rather than your statement is ridiculous.

Edited May 21, 2007 by Nick H

[Thundery wintry showers]

I imagine TWS was referring to the situation we find ourselves in now as ridiculous (i.e. that only average months are needed from now til y/e to break the record), rather than your statement is ridiculous.

That's entirely correct; apologies for if it was interpreted the wrong way (I'm quite used to getting mis-interpreted)

[ukmoose]

Thanks Nick and TWS

I see what you mean! Yes, ridiculous indeed.

Moose

[Roger J Smith]

There's quite a space between the four of us at 11.1 and the really high predictions from 11.5 upwards. I would not be too surprised if the annual CET fell into that big gap somewhere, say around 11.3, but don't take this as a change in prediction, I assume the deadline for entries closed some time back.

I am thinking along the lines of 16, 18, 19, 15, 11, 7 and 5 for the remaining months of the year. If those were correct on average (like 17, 17, 20, 14, 12, 6, 5 same thing) and May comes in at 13 or so, then I believe the annual CET will be 11.25 to 11.30 -- none of those are really what you would call record-breakers either, and it seems plausible that there's one more record month left in the deck before things perhaps settle back a little closer to normal, whatever your point of view on cause and effect.

I agree it would be very surprising now if the annual CET fell below even 10.8 let alone 10.6, I would say at least even money that it breaks the annual record and even 11.0 for that matter.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

How's that?

Very good. Now I'm below even WIB!

As I said before I based my prediction on SSTs of North Sea and North East Atlantic. SSTs around our coasts remained 1-2.5C above average throughout winter 2006-7 and Spring 2007.

Since SSTs churn out heat day & night they should modify ground level temperatures - warming influence winter, spring, autumn; cooling influence during summer (or indirect warming influence).

The effect of SSTs on CET should be particularly noticable overnight - when the sun cannot directly warm the earth, the SSTs are still there beside us pumping out heat at the same temperature it did during the day.

(That's why coastal areas are warmer than inland, although everywhere on small island like UK is influenced by SSTs).

SSTs around UK are now cooling off a little - if this continues one might expect positive anomalies to be lower this summer. Say +1C, or +2C with the right airmass

I suspect though that during summer SSTs usually go positive, so we'll go into autumn again with high positive anomalies in the North Sea and likelihood of a record-breaking annual CET the result.

Edited May 21, 2007 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[summer blizzard]

Here is my 2007 CET forecast.

January: 1.7C (2.5C below average, coldest since 1987)* Wrong, the January CET was 7C, 2.8C above average

February: 4.7C (0.5C above average, warmest since 2004) Wrong, the February CET was 5.8C, 1.6C above average

March: 9.3C (3C above average, warmest on record)* Wrong, the March CET was 7.2C, 0.9C above average

April: 10.6C (2.5C above average, warmest since 1865)* Wrong, the April CET was 11.2C 3.1C above average

May: 10.8C (0.5C below average, coolest since 1996) Wrong, the May CET looks to be between 11.8C and 12.3C

June: 16.1C (2C above average, joint warmest with 2003)*

July: 18C (1.5C above average, coolest since 2005)*

August: 18.2C (2C above average, warmest since 2003)*

September: 14.2C (0.8C above average, coolest since 2001)

October: 9.1C (1.3C below average, coolest since 1993)

November: 8.2C (1.3C above average, warmest since 2002)

December: 6.4C (1.3C above average, coolest since 2005)

My 2007 CET forecast at this stage is... 10.61C, with a 0.05C margin of error. - 30% chance of second warmest year on record...

Summary...

3 below average months

9 above average months

1 record warm month

5 very warm months (1.5C+ anomolous values)

1 very cold month (-1.5C anomolous value)

I have updated my June and August forecasts and also revised all other months.

[Guest Mike W]

I think you would have to probably begg and plead to get 14.2 for September and definately to get 9.1 for October, after the last two October's jumping up like they did especially and indeed the last two September's have jumped aswell. But defiantely an intereting forecast. Well done for doing it anyway. The rest of it look's realistic though.

Edited May 22, 2007 by Mike W

[summer blizzard]

From September onwards, the forecast is anologue based, i find the last year which observed an August within 0.5C of 18.2C and use the following Septembers value, ajjusting it slightly in case the value for August was not exact, in this case, the best anologue was 2003 for the Autumn and then December 2006.

[Anti-Mild]

Assuming the final CET for May is 11.9c, the CET for the year so far would be 8.62c. At the same time last year the CET was 6.76c, almost 2c cooler than this year.

If the rest of the year was right on the 71-00 average then the final yearly CET would be 10.5c. This is highly unlikely.

If the rest of the year mirrored last year then the final yearly CET would be an incredible 11.6c!

To equal the record breaking CET of last year, each month need only be 0.55c above average.

To break the magic 11c barrier, each month needs to be 0.86c above average.

From a personal stadpoint, my prediction for the annual CET was 10.28c. For that horse to pass the post first would take every month of the year coming in at 0.38c under the 71-00 average. Hmmmm, I think that ship may have sailed

Edited May 30, 2007 by Anti-Mild

[The PIT]

Time to bump this one up.

Although early days it's looking like June will be another well above average month. Certainly the odds are on for a warm year.

[Stratos Ferric]

...From a personal stadpoint, my prediction for the annual CET was 10.28c. For that horse to pass the post first would take every month of the year coming in at 0.38c under the 71-00 average. Hmmmm, I think that ship may have sailed

A-m: I think it wouldn't be stretching the point too far to suggest that that particular ship has not only sailed, but was withdrawn from service about ten years ago.

[Calrissian]

Hmm, does any one want to jump onboard the HMS Calrissian.

She is a fine vessel, but only for the bold and courageous who believe in the Jump. If you think 11.95 is no longer too crazy, then do reserve your space, there is currently plenty of room left.

--

*seriously though, 11.25 seems a given CET for 2007 (as I said a long while back), the only issue is just how much higher above that it'll be. June is certainly going to come in high, even if the rest of the year is just 1c above normal, that will still take us well into new territory.

Calrissian: all aboard !

[Stu_London]

My 9.96C ship seems to have gone the way of the Cutty Sark

My caveat at the time was however that it depended on

i) Super eruptions at both Java and Yellowstone

ii) A solar minimum of the like seen in Danny Boyle's "Sunshine" :lol:

Looks like my final hope of winning will depend on how much effect there is on daytime maximas when the low lying CET stations become submerged by rising sea water

:lol: :lol:

Edited June 14, 2007 by Stu_London

[Snowly does it]

If every month for the rest of the year is 2 degrees above the 30 year mean then the CET would be 11.67

If every month were a degree above the 30 year average then we get 11.08

If average then 10.5

A degree below every month would come in at 9.92

11.25 mooted by Calrissian requires every month to be 1.35 degrees above average. June on course.

Edited June 14, 2007 by snowmaiden

[Calrissian]

wow, thanks for those specifics snowmaiden. I wasn't sure about the exact numbers.

So, 1.35 on average for rest of the year, hmm. I'm sure there might well be one 'cool' month to come this year, but if all I need is 1.35, then thats pretty attainable.

Indeed, as I suspected, not only will we get pass the psychological 11.0c CET barrier, it'll be a significant jump pass the level and beyond. It is this jump ahead that I think will be the real marker in people's minds - especially the 'experts', including those on this board. 11.0c in itself would be a real marker, but complex systems rarely move so gradually.

We're past the tipping point, the general synoptic patterns have altered position, we can expect the CET to be 11.25 and more in the coming couple of years.

As the Admiral would say...."...we've gone way beyond the red line."

Calrissian: eyes on ISS

[ukmoose]

Annual CET predictions 2007

9.90C: eddie

9.96C: Stu London

10.07C: S4lancia

10.10C: Cheeky Monkey

10.11C: ChrisL

10.20C: Paul Tall

10.28C: Anti-Mild

10.30C: Sundog

10.35C: Kold Weather

10.40C: Terminal Moraine

10.42C: Mr Maunder

10.46C: Mr Data

10.48C: Blast from the Past

10.49C: Stargazer

10.50C: nick F

10.53C: Snow-Man2006

10.59C: Thundery Wintry Showers

10.60C: Don

10.61C: Reef

10.68C: Summer Blizzard

10.69C: Joneseye

10.71C: Magpie

10.74C: Snowmaiden

10.80C: Gavin P

10.90C: Stratos Ferric

10.90C: Somerset Squall

10.97C: Bessy

10.99C: Optimus Prime

11.00C: The Pit

11.01C: West is Best

11.01C: Iceberg

11.05C: high ground birm

11.10C: Windswept

11.10C: Stephen Prudence

11.10C: Parmenides3

11.10C: Roger J Smith

11.50C: SteveB

11.55C: Atlantic Flamethrower

11.79C: Ukmoose

11.80C: Craig Evans

11.95C: Calrissian

12.00C: jimmyay

Just thought I'd neaten up the file a bit.

I think if June stays more or less as it is and the rest of the year comes in at the '71-2000 average (NW figures), we're looking at an annual CET of around 10.74C. You could just be in there SM!

Moose

[Snowly does it]

I think if June stays more or less as it is and the rest of the year comes in at the '71-2000 average (NW figures), we're looking at an annual CET of around 10.74C. You could just be in there SM!

Moose

lol, I need 'miracle' averages to come in at my ridiculously warm guesstimate. Isn't GW fun?

How long before we are describing sub 10.5 years as 'bitter'?

[ukmoose]

lol, I need 'miracle' averages to come in at my ridiculously warm guesstimate. Isn't GW fun?

How long before we are describing sub 10.5 years as 'bitter'?

Now there's a thought. 'Bitter' used to be a popular word in (winter) forecasts but is now no longer in common useage! When was the last 'bitter' CET I wonder?

I think you could be right though SM, sub annual CET 10.5s may become a rarity sooner than we would have thought.

Moose

[summer blizzard]

My update should be available on the 21st as usual, however i am pleased to say, that September is looking absolutely dire according to my predictions with a CET of no more than 0.5C above average.

[Snowly does it]

Now there's a thought. 'Bitter' used to be a popular word in (winter) forecasts but is now no longer in common useage! When was the last 'bitter' CET I wonder?

I think you could be right though SM, sub annual CET 10.5s may become a rarity sooner than we would have thought.

Moose

Annually speaking 1996 (9.2) and month wise Feb 1991 (1.5)??

[acbrixton]

Now there's a thought. 'Bitter' used to be a popular word in (winter) forecasts but is now no longer in common useage! When was the last 'bitter' CET I wonder?

I think you could be right though SM, sub annual CET 10.5s may become a rarity sooner than we would have thought.

Moose

Defining "bitter" as more than 2c below the 1971-200 CET average and looking only at the 3 winter months as defined by the MO:

December 1996: 2.9

January 1987: 0.8

February 1991: 1.5

Regards

ACB

Edited June 14, 2007 by acbrixton

[Don]

My update should be available on the 21st as usual, however i am pleased to say, that September is looking absolutely dire according to my predictions with a CET of no more than 0.5C above average.

I so hope you're right about September!