Annual CET 2007

[Snowly does it]

Defining "bitter" as more than 2c below the 1971-200 CET average and looking only at the 3 winter months as defined by the MO:

December 1996: 2.9

January 1987: 0.8

February 1991: 1.5

Regards

ACB

And in a similar vein, the last time a year was more than a degree below average as a whole was 1986, the last time a year was below average at all was 1996.

[summer blizzard]

My update should be available on the 21st as usual, however i am pleased to say, that September is looking absolutely dire according to my predictions with a CET of no more than 0.5C above average.

The latest data is in and while i may not back it in the CET thread in September, a CET of no higher than 0.5C beloe average (13.2C) is indcated, and possibly as low as 10.2C, though i am sure the CET will not be that low.

[Snowly does it]

The latest data is in and while i may not back it in the CET thread in September, a CET of no higher than 0.5C beloe average (13.2C) is indcated, and possibly as low as 10.2C, though i am sure the CET will not be that low.

10.2 would be the coldest September on record by 0.3 degrees! So yeah, I think we can assume it won't be that low

[Optimus Prime]

Well if June comes in with a CET 15.7c and every month afterwards were to equal the coldest July, August, September, October, November, December on record the yearly CET would still be 8.53c. Quite a bit above that year of 1963.

[Calrissian]

I'm not sure of the 'odds' of such a string of '5 coldest' months would be, but I'd guess my probability of winning the lottery would be more better.

I find it really bizarre that anyone would not already safely assume we'll break the 11.0c threshold this year.

*I'm just wondering also that, lets say we get 11.25 this year. Are we going to be seeing the same type of posts next year ? 'ohh, we could still get a run of cool months to get a below 11.0 for 2008 CET ?

It remains an astounding year, yes we've had lots of rain lately, but that is mostly 'stormy' rain due to the new synoptic patterns (Isn't it ?)- yet another sign of the new 'average'.

Lately, the latest fad (which is what it is) is whether July could be cooler than June. Doesn't really matter does it. It still avoids the overall fact that things are now often 1.0-3.0 above average. We'll probably get a 'cool' 0.1c+ above average this year, and I'll be laughing at the hysteria on this board from the cold rampers.

Calrissian: living in a time of increasing change

[Snowly does it]

Lately, the latest fad (which is what it is) is whether July could be cooler than June. Doesn't really matter does it. It still avoids the overall fact that things are now often 1.0-3.0 above average. We'll probably get a 'cool' 0.1c+ above average this year, and I'll be laughing at the hysteria on this board from the cold rampers.

Not so much a fad as a legitimate debate about temperature and yes it does matter, it matters to the perception of summer and is of statistical interest.

We aren't going to ban discussion of cool weather are we as inappropriate in these changing times? lol

Edited June 18, 2007 by snowmaiden

[Calrissian]

I knew some idiot would misread me. Yes, because if you had any level of significant intelligence you'd not start whining about what is merely a statement. I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad, wake up and direct your whining elsewhere.

Unlike some of the nazi-thought police (you included I guess?), I am not one for banning anything.

---

All I'm stating is that things have changed, and it is indeed VERY laughable at the desperation being shown at those clinging on to a past that is now unattainable.

Calrissian: ohh the humanity of the ignorant

[Snowly does it]

I knew some idiot would misread me. Yes, because if you had any level of significant intelligence you'd not start whining about what is merely a statement. I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad, wake up and direct your whining elsewhere.

Unlike some of the nazi-thought police (you included I guess?), I am not one for banning anything.

---

All I'm stating is that things have changed, and it is indeed VERY laughable at the desperation being shown at those clinging on to a past that is now unattainable.

Calrissian: ohh the humanity of the ignorant

I put an lol at the end, not enough to prevent the wrath of Calrissian I see.

Thanks for the backside kicking, I'll apologise for misinterpreting what you said and also for the snippiness of the way I posted, however you are not the only one who is far from happy.

Apology offered, thats the end of the matter I trust?

Edited June 18, 2007 by snowmaiden

[Stu_London]

I find it really bizarre that anyone would not already safely assume we'll break the 11.0c threshold this year.

Hitting 11C does rather assume that temps for the rest of the year are at least near to those last year which from July to November were at record levels.

Patterns and teleconnections look very different to last year to me.

[Stratos Ferric]

Hitting 11C does rather assume that temps for the rest of the year are at least near to those last year which from July to November were at record levels.

Patterns and teleconnections look very different to last year to me.

Not at all. When I last checked we had about 8 or 9 cumulative degrees in hand, and remember that last August only just touched long term par. We could afford big drops against last year's record breaking months, and still have margin in hand to reach 11. I'm away from my core stats but I'm fairly sure that I'm right in saying that the second half of the year would need to be decidedly cool by recent standards in order to avoid certainly an increase on last year's overall record breaker, and then, in all probability, breaching 11.00C.

[Snowly does it]

Not at all. When I last checked we had about 8 or 9 cumulative degrees in hand, and remember that last August only just touched long term par. We could afford big drops against last year's record breaking months, and still have margin in hand to reach 11. I'm away from my core stats but I'm fairly sure that I'm right in saying that the second half of the year would need to be decidedly cool by recent standards in order to avoid certainly an increase on last year's overall record breaker, and then, in all probability, breaching 11.00C.

Average of 12.7 for the next 7 months (incl June) to hit 11 degrees, the long term average is 11.85 so 0.85 above average for the rest of the year to hit the magic 11 figure.

For reference the 10 year rolling average for Jun to December is 12.53 and would generate a record year of 10.9, the 30 year average would give us 10.5 (bear in mind how rare average months now are and how far ahead of the game June is)

11 looks much better than evens odds and 11.25 whilst for me the upper limit of realistic expectations certainly is on the cards.

Edited June 19, 2007 by snowmaiden

[summer blizzard]

Here is my 2007 CET forecast.

January: 1.7C (2.5C below average, coldest since 1987)* Wrong, the January CET was 7C, 2.8C above average

February: 4.7C (0.5C above average, warmest since 2004) Wrong, the February CET was 5.8C, 1.6C above average

March: 9.3C (3C above average, warmest on record)* Wrong, the March CET was 7.2C, 0.9C above average

April: 10.6C (2.5C above average, warmest since 1865)* Wrong, the April CET was 11.2C 3.1C above average

May: 10.8C (0.5C below average, coolest since 1996) Wrong, the May CET was 11.9C, 0.6C above average

June: 16.1C (2C above average, warmest with 2003)*

July: 17C (0.5C above average, coolest since 2005)

August: 17.2C (1C above average, warmest since 2004)

September: 11.2C (2.5C below average, coolest since 1952)*

October: 10.9C (0.5C above average, coolest since 2004)

November: 7.3C (0.4C above average, coolest since 2005)

December: 5.8C (0.7C above average, coolest since 2005)

My 2007 CET forecast at this stage is... 10.22C, with a 0.05C margin of error.

Summary...

3 below average months

9 above average months

1 record warm month

3 very warm months (1.5C+ anomolous values)

2 very cold months (-1.5C anomolous value)

I have updated my July onward forecasts and also revised all other months from there on.

Edited June 19, 2007 by summer blizzard

[Stratos Ferric]

Here is my 2007 CET forecast.

January: 1.7C (2.5C below average, coldest since 1987)* Wrong, the January CET was 7C, 2.8C above average

February: 4.7C (0.5C above average, warmest since 2004) Wrong, the February CET was 5.8C, 1.6C above average

March: 9.3C (3C above average, warmest on record)* Wrong, the March CET was 7.2C, 0.9C above average

April: 10.6C (2.5C above average, warmest since 1865)* Wrong, the April CET was 11.2C 3.1C above average

May: 10.8C (0.5C below average, coolest since 1996) Wrong, the May CET was 11.9C, 0.6C above average

June: 16.1C (2C above average, warmest with 2003)*

July: 17C (0.5C above average, coolest since 2005)

August: 17.2C (1C above average, warmest since 2004)

September: 11.2C (2.5C below average, coolest since 1952)*

October: 10.9C (0.5C above average, coolest since 2004)

November: 7.3C (0.4C above average, coolest since 2005)

December: 5.8C (0.7C above average, coolest since 2005)

My 2007 CET forecast at this stage is... 10.22C, with a 0.05C margin of error.

Summary...

3 below average months

9 above average months

1 record warm month

3 very warm months (1.5C+ anomolous values)

2 very cold months (-1.5C anomolous value)

I have updated my July onward forecasts and also revised all other months from there on.

[Stu_London]

Not at all. When I last checked we had about 8 or 9 cumulative degrees in hand, and remember that last August only just touched long term par. We could afford big drops against last year's record breaking months, and still have margin in hand to reach 11. I'm away from my core stats but I'm fairly sure that I'm right in saying that the second half of the year would need to be decidedly cool by recent standards in order to avoid certainly an increase on last year's overall record breaker, and then, in all probability, breaching 11.00C.

Assuming we have 9 cumulative degrees in hand this is how I see it could pan out

June - 15.9 last year - I suspect we will lose at least 0.5C

July - 19.7 last year - This could be a big loser if the recent output is anything to go on but I will be conservative and say we will lose 2.5C

August 16.1 last year - Neutral month to me - maybe a slight gain if summer ever gets going

September 16.8 last year - Another that big chunk to be lost here 2.0C will still see a significantly warmer than average month

October 13.0 last year - Probably the key month if 11C is to be reached in 2007. Ironically I see a value of around 11C, eating another 2C of what we have in hand

November 8.1 last year - Still in the very mild category, I can see 7.5C reducing the cumulative degrees in hand by another 0.6C leaving 1.4 in hand.

December 6.5 last year - 5.1 to beat 11C

All speculative at this moment in time but part of my point was to illustrate that July, September and October are likely to see signification erosion of the degrees in hand. In fact a sub 16C July couldn't be ruled out with much confidence based on todays output which witl June would eat about half of the cumulative degrees in hand.

[Stratos Ferric]

Here is my 2007 CET forecast ...January: 1.7C (2.5C below average, coldest since 1987)* Wrong, the January CET was 7C, 2.8C above average...)... December: 5.8C (0.7C above average, coolest since 2005)<BR><BR>My 2007 CET forecast at this stage is... 10.22C, with a 0.05C margin of error. <BR><BR>...<BR><BR>I have updated my July onward forecasts and also revised all other months from there on.

SB, it seems to me that you've retained your error at the start of the year i.e. your forecast for the outcome still includes a history which is now incorrect. Wouldn't it be more sensible to extrapolate out for the rest of the year from where we actually are now, not where you hoped we'd be? To get to 10.22 by year end would require the next 6 months to be more than 16C cooler, cumulatively, than last year. If this were 1907, rather than 2007, this would be likely: it's not, and it isn't. Interestingly, the only three occasions when this has happened recently all had cold Octobers, most recently 1992 and 1993, together two of the four coldest months in the last 15 years. Months like those are now in our rear view mirror: close enough perhaps to give the illusion of a proximity to which we might return, but be under no illusion, all the indications are that those times are now behind us for our lifetime.

For my part, from where we are now, I'd say that 11 looks like being broken. If we continue the current run of warmth slightly above the 10 year mean then we'll be comfortably clear. We need about 11.9 from here to break last year's record; you have to go back to 2000 for the last time that did NOT happen, so it's already short odds on a new record, around 2-1 or 5-2, say. The case for 11 is less certain, particularly IF the N Atlantic continues to cool. 12.2 is required and has occurred 5 times in the last 14 years, but that includes the last two h2s; that's about 6-1 or 7-1 against at present then.

Edited June 23, 2007 by Stratos Ferric

[shuggee]

For my part, from where we are now, I'd say that 11 looks like being broken. If we continue the current run of warmth slightly above the 10 year mean then we'll be comfortably clear. We need about 11.9 from here to break last year's record; you have to go back to 2000 for the last time that did NOT happen, so it's already short odds on a new record, around 2-1 or 5-2, say. The case for 11 is less certain, particularly IF the N Atlantic continues to cool. 12.2 is required and has occurred 5 times in the last 14 years, but that includes the last two h2s; that's about 6-1 or 7-1 against at present then.

Should that first one be 10ºC or am I going mad? (Don't answer that last point).

[Stu_London]

Should that first one be 10ºC or am I going mad? (Don't answer that last point).

For us not to make 10C - someone would have to stop putting 50p pieces into the sun's meter!

Or put another way - we would require 7 record cold months from now to December

[Stratos Ferric]

Assuming we have 9 cumulative degrees in hand this is how I see it could pan out

...

All speculative at this moment in time but part of my point was to illustrate that July, September and October are likely to see signification erosion of the degrees in hand. In fact a sub 16C July couldn't be ruled out with much confidence based on todays output which witl June would eat about half of the cumulative degrees in hand.

There's an allure in an argument based on "it can't possibly stay THIS warm", however, I offer you the month now drawing towards yet another mild outcome, DESPITE synoptics that it would hard to beat in terms of lack of promise for sustained warmth. The simple fact is, and you've recognised yourself only a few pages back the points that many others have made previously, what is required to get us back down is cold, and we virtually NEVER get cold now, certainly not in any sustained fashion. Above all else it is this one state of affairs that most describes and accounts for the recent change in our climate.

As I say above, a continuation of the current run of moderate mildness (accepting the thesis that there's been an uplift in our baseline) is all that's required to return 11. It no more hinges on October than it does any other month. It's easy to suggest that previous very warm months can't be repeated, but given recent events it's equally the case that an August as relatively cool as last year's is unlikely.

Should that first one be 10ºC or am I going mad? (Don't answer that last point).

lol

[shuggee]

Shhhhhhh

If I was less scrupulous - say like TWS (yes - behind the scenes he's the guy we're all scared of - beatings are not unknown), then I could use some of these editing tools to get rid of that post...

[summer blizzard]

SB, it seems to me that you've retained your error at the start of the year i.e. your forecast for the outcome still includes a history which is now incorrect. Wouldn't it be more sensible to extrapolate out for the rest of the year from where we actually are now, not where you hoped we'd be? To get to 10.22 by year end would require the next 6 months to be more than 16C cooler, cumulatively, than last year. If this were 1907, rather than 2007, this would be likely: it's not, and it isn't. Interestingly, the only three occasions when this has happened recently all had cold Octobers, most recently 1992 and 1993, together two of the four coldest months in the last 15 years. Months like those are now in our rear view mirror: close enough perhaps to give the illusion of a proximity to which we might return, but be under no illusion, all the indications are that those times are now behind us for our lifetime.

I should really put both values, the predicted one, and a combined actual+predicted, however i thought it would be interesting to see what i would of predicted had all the data available being predicted at the start of the year.

[Weather-history]

1846 with 9.52

I'm tempted to nickname summer blizzard "the resurrector" the way he keeps bringing up old threads.

Looks like we just have had the warmest first half of a year on record with 9.73

[Nick F]

I'm tempted to nickname summer blizzard "the resurrector" the way he keeps bringing up old threads.

I'm sure it's not because he has just reached 4K ...

[summer blizzard]

I'm tempted to nickname summer blizzard "the resurrector" the way he keeps bringing up old threads.

Looks like we just have had the warmest first half of a year on record with 9.73

Tbh, i hav'nt even noticed my post count lol, quite simply, i am bored and skint...

Unsuprising considering only two of the past six months have been anywhere near average, also, did you take into account that Hadly is at 15.2C for June, 0.2C lower than Manley?

[Stu_London]

If Hadley confirms at 15.1C then we have only 6.4 cumulative degrees in hand of last years values to see 11C breached.

Statistically over half of that is likely to disappear in July which makes 11C very much a longshot now considering we have no cold months to play with and another two (Sep/Oct) in the record or near record category.

In fact I would go as far to say that beating last year may (10.82) may now be odds against.

[summer blizzard]

Yes, if those months come in close to average and we dont see a warm August, we may struggle to even beat 2002.

More good news is that with an already chilly September predicted, preliminary signs for October indicate a CET in the range of 7.4C and 11.4C, so no more than 1C above average.