Annual CET 2007

[Optimus Prime]

Looks highly likely being the warmest first third to a year (Jan-Apr)

Current record is 1990 with 7.525

The wamest Feb-Apr period is 1779 with 8.4, that record looks like it will survive.

Hi Mr.D

Looking extremely likely it'll also be the warmest first 6 months on record as well. Do you know what the record stands at?

[North-Easterly Blast]

Optimus Prime;

I am not sure that I agree with you about a cold block not being able to sustain itself over the UK due to it not being able to provide the cold it used to be able to do. Look at the late February 2005 easterly. That northern blocking was able to sustain itself for a reasonable period of time even though there was no really cold air over Europe to tap into to make that easterly particularly cold. In late January 2006 our cold sources actually did became bitterly cold and yet a cold northern block never developed to get the cold air to the UK even though conditions were much colder over Europe at that time than in late Feb 2005. Only in Feb of this year Scandinavia became bitterly cold from a southward moving Arctic High but the synoptics couldn't allow this cold to reach the UK. The same is also true of the "Kettley High" scenario of Feb 2001; northern Europe turned bitterly cold and the right synoptics still couldn't develop for cold in the UK.

The above just goes to show the fickleness of getting cold synoptics for the UK whether our cold sources are really cold or not.

[Weather-history]

Hi Mr.D

Looking extremely likely it'll also be the warmest first 6 months on record as well. Do you know what the record stands at?

1846 with 9.52

[Optimus Prime]

Well I'd put that at 80% chance of the first half being the warmest ever.

If April comes in at 11.0c (probably even that's too low) it would only take May and June to be average (11.4c and 14.1c) for it to be very close (9.41c in that case)

It even looks rather likely the first half will surpras the 10c for the first time ever. All depends on how warm May and June come in.

Not to mention we're going to have the first April ever to surpass the 11.0c mark.

Some really remarkable statistics to think about.

North East Blast I'm just wondering whether even if we get the right easterly at the right time whether the cold will actually be very cold as it comes across the enormously high sea and soil temperatures that we've persistantly been having.

Just had a look at the first half off 1846....June had an average temperature of 18.2c!

[North-Easterly Blast]

The shorter lived late Dec 2005 easterly was pretty cold and it did give two ice days to a number of places, and was in fact colder than the much longer lasting and good setup of what should be a cold easterly in late Feb 2005; the mid March 2006 easterly was cold by March standards with some places getting an ice day on the 12th, and even the short lived easterly on 8th / 9th Feb 2007 certainly wasn't that bad, as when looking at charts it dosen't look a particularly cold one; a number of places managed to stay below 0*C on these two days. So in actual fact we have had short lived colder easterlies since the good easterly setup in late Feb 2005.

[Lettucing Gutted]

It is getting to the point now where we should begin to think if the winters of 2000-01 and 2005-06 are the modern versions of 1995-96, 1985, 1986, 1987 and even possibly 1978-79.

Even worse the winter of 2006/2007 will be the new winter of 1962/1963. The summers of 2006, 2003, 1997, 1995, 1976, 1975 and 1947 will be the new summer of 1816.

Our seasonal baselines are marching and soaring relentlessly upwards... B)

Edited April 27, 2007 by Craig Evans

[Stratos Ferric]

Optimus Prime;

I am not sure that I agree with you about a cold block not being able to sustain itself over the UK due to it not being able to provide the cold it used to be able to do. Look at the late February 2005 easterly. That northern blocking was able to sustain itself for a reasonable period of time even though there was no really cold air over Europe to tap into to make that easterly particularly cold. In late January 2006 our cold sources actually did became bitterly cold and yet a cold northern block never developed to get the cold air to the UK even though conditions were much colder over Europe at that time than in late Feb 2005. Only in Feb of this year Scandinavia became bitterly cold from a southward moving Arctic High but the synoptics couldn't allow this cold to reach the UK. The same is also true of the "Kettley High" scenario of Feb 2001; northern Europe turned bitterly cold and the right synoptics still couldn't develop for cold in the UK.

The above just goes to show the fickleness of getting cold synoptics for the UK whether our cold sources are really cold or not.

NEB, this is precisely the type of argument that the part of the community obsessed with cold to the point of being blind to any other possibility is wont to put forward during winter disappointments. It has the ring of the four-yearly gnashing of teeth that follows the Football / cricket / rughy world cup: we enter with a ludicrous expectation of victory, which almost always cannot be vindicated by harsh assessment of the parts and the wider context, and then we moan relentlessly when we make an early exit.

The simple fact is that we need two things for sustained cold: the right synoptic set up, coupled with cold air masses. The simple reality is that, for all the "if onlys", these two are nowadays never coincident. Sooner or later people will recognise that you cannot keep saying "if only" as a justification for having another go: there comes a point where maintenance of the argument boils down to either gross stubborness or flagrant stupidity - and the two are not unrelated. I'm not saying where at that point yet but boy, we're peering over the edge looking down at it, that much is for sure.

[North-Easterly Blast]

What is even worse with this month's setup is that northern France and Germany have been far warmer than Spain and most of the Mediterranean, a warm pool of 10+850hpa air has been floating around the northern France / Germany area all month, with hardly any 10+850hpa air anywhere else further north from Africa.

This month has just seen almost persistent high pressure sat over Central Europe propped up there by a semi-permanent Iberian trough / low over Spain. Highs over the UK have attempted to retrogress to form a Greenland High on two occasions this month, but shortwave low pressure areas have prevented it. We were also stuck in a pattern of a permanent anticyclone over Central Europe (Euro High) held up by an Iberian trough for two solid months in June / July of last year.

[ukmoose]

Sorry Stu L and Atlantic. Only just spotted this. Here you go:

eddie:9.9

Stu London:9.96

S4lancia: 10.07C

Cheeky Monkey: 10.1C

ChrisL: 10.11C

Paul Tall: 10.2C

Anti-Mild: 10.28C

Sundog: 10.3C

Kold Weather: 10.35C

Terminal Moraine:10.4

Mr Maunder: 10.42C

Mr Data: 10.46C

Blast from the Past:10.48

Stargazer:10.49

nick F: 10.5C

Snow-Man2006: 10.53C

Atlantic Flamethrower:11.55

Thundery Wintry Showers: 10.59C

Don:10.6

Reef: 10.61C

Summer Blizzard:10.68

Joneseye: 10.69C

Magpie: 10.71C

Snowmaiden: 10.74C

Gavin P: 10.8C

Stratos Ferric: 10.9C

Somerset Squall:10.9

Bessy:10.97

Optimus Prime: 10.99C

The Pit: 11C

West Is Best: 11.01C

Iceberg:11.01

high ground birm:11.05

Windswept: 11.1C

Stephen Prudence: 11.1C

Parmenides3: 11.1C

Roger J Smith:11.1

SteveB: 11.5C

Ukmoose:11.79

Craig Evans: 11.8C

Calrissian: 11.95C

jimmyay:12

Hope that's ok now but I'm sure someone will let me know if not.

Moose

[Optimus Prime]

Well if April ends up at 11.5c (most likely) the anomoly so far this year will be 2.2c above average. That means if the current rate of warming is sustained at this rate a yearly outcome off 11.95c.

Even if the unlikely does happen (we get every month from May onwards bang on the 71-000 average) the year would still outurn a CET off 10.48c.

If the impossible does happen and every month from May onwards comes in the coldest of the 20th century the yearly CET would have an outcome off 8.30c.

In comparison 1963 almost equalled that. Even with a Warm April, June, October and November.

[Calrissian]

Well if April ends up at 11.5c (most likely) the anomoly so far this year will be 2.2c above average. That means if the current rate of warming is sustained at this rate a yearly outcome off 11.95c.

That is pleasing to see.

11.25 is guarenteed, but for my target we do need a few 100f+ days, never mind endless sleepless nights, and then of course, skipping winter entirely, moving straight into Spring 2008 in November 2007.

4 months almost through, and things are preceeding for the Jump on track.

Calrissian: More than meets the eye.

[acbrixton]

11.25 is guarenteed, ...4 months almost through, and things are preceeding for the Jump on track.

Calrissian: More than meets the eye.

Come come Calrissian how on earth can you say that at 4 months into the year that "11.25 is guaranteed"?

Assuming 11.5 for April we would need all other months to be on average about 2.0 above the 71-2000 avaerage or about 1.1 above the rolling 10 year average: certianly not impossible/a remote possibility but far from "guaranteed"...

Regards

ACB

[Calrissian]

I suppose the word 'guarantee' might upset some, but tough, I'm offering a guarantee on this.

'Some' dared to suggest within the first week of April this month would aim for 11c CET. Laughs and cries of 'impossible' were aired. Even when the variables looked favourable for 'cool' we still have daily temps of 17c. Frakking hillarious really, you gotta admit, right ? April, rain, cloud...and still 17c.

We have seen 11c met this month...and now exceeded.

As for May, conditions will doubtless tail off a bit (from the rate of 3.0c+ increase), but it'll still be around 1-2c + above normal.

As one person list in their sig', there have been endless records broken in the last year...and that will continue (probably at least for another year or so).

I will bet anyone ten million of your European Euros that we'll hit a 2007 CET of 11.25 or more. Anyone suggesting anything below 10.75 is insane and psychological stuck in the pre 1980s climate era. Let me note that neither is it wish casting on my part. I do not look forward to endless sleepless nights when the night temps are above 15c.

It is 2007, the Jump year.

Calrissian: Maybe time to update the sig.

[acbrixton]

I will bet anyone ten million of your European Euros that we'll hit a 2007 CET of 11.25 or more. Anyone suggesting anything below 10.75 is insane and psychological stuck in the pre 1980s climate era. Calrissian: Maybe time to update the sig.

Calrissian the text highlighted in bold is simply wrong: the average CET for 71-2000 was about 9.75 whilst the 10 year rolling average is about 10.5. To predict an average of below 10.75 therefore cannot be evidence of either insanity or of being stuck in a 1980s timewarp. I would agree that a CET below 10.75 for 2007 now looks unlikely but equally 11.25 or more is very far from a "done deal".

Regards

ACB

[Calrissian]

I'm a visionary

You just have to believe me. No matter though, only 8months until we get to that point, and doubtless a further set of records will have been broken.

Calrissian: too many biscuits is not wise.

[summer blizzard]

Here is my 2007 CET forecast.

January: 1.7C (2.5C below average, coldest since 1987)* Wrong, the January CET was 7C, 2.8C above average

February: 4.7C (0.5C above average, warmest since 2004) Wrong, the February CET was 5.8C, 1.6C above average

March: 9.3C (3C above average, warmest on record)* Wrong, the March CET 7.2C, 0.9C above average

April: 10.6C (2.5C above average, warmest since 1865)* Wrong, the April CET looks to be between 11.1C and 11.6C, 3C to 3.5C above average

May: 10.8C (0.5C below average, coolest since 1996)

June: 18.1C (4C above average, warmest since 1846)*

July: 18C (1.5C above average, coolest since 2003)*

August: 17.9C (1.7C above average, warmest since 2004)*

September: 15.2C (1.8C above average, coolest since 2005)*

October: 13.1C (2.7C above average, warmest since 2005)*

November: 6.2C (0.7C below average, coolest since 2005 )

December: 4.4C (0.7C below average, coolest since 2005)

My 2007 CET forecast at this stage is... 10.83C, with a 0.05C margin of error. - 60% chance of warmest year on record, 40% chance of second warmest.

Summary...

4 below average months

8 above average months

1 record warm months

7 very warm months (1.5C+ anomolous values)

1 very cold month (-1.5C anomolous value)

I have updated my July forecast and also revised all other months.

Edited April 29, 2007 by summer blizzard

[Stratos Ferric]

To the end of April we are a staggering 12C cumulative above the same point last year. If we matched from here in that would give a CET for the year around 11.8: barking!

May and June are unlikely, as things stand, to come in any lower than last year, or at most marginally lower. That leaves six months to run with around 9.6C cumulative to breach 11C (think back two years and that marked seemed like it was a good few years ago: here we are now with one leg through the window and no sign that the ladder on which the other is still resting is in any way wobbly). July was a big leap last year, which this year would be unlikely to match, but on the other hand August was distinctly average. Going in to the last four months of the year it is hard to imagine that we will not be at least 6C above last year, probably more. With 1.5C per month in hand it is almost implausible to consider that last year's 11.8C will not be exceeded, probably by another good margin, and I'd offer around evens at present on 11C being breached.

[kold weather]

I suspect we will see a CET breaking the 11C mark, given the 2005 wasn't actually very far away and we had three months that didn't get more then 0.1C above average abnd indeed the March was decently below aerage as well, now we are WAY above where we last year though I really can't see the summer/Autumn being as warm as las tyear, the two months that relaly did it was the July and September, both of which came in close to 3C above average.

I have to say there does seem to be an increasingly intresting trend for 3c+ months now, April i believe is something like the 4/5th over the last 12 months.

[Optimus Prime]

Wonder whether they were having these conversations about whether the 11.0c mark would have been breached in 1846? Despite it having the warmest first half of the year on record (9.52c) the year finished at 10.1c.

Given that April will come in around 11.3c if May and june came in exactly average the first 6 months would end up around 9.46c. -0.06c off the record. Still in the balance.

I'd say a 2 in 3 chance for the record falling.

[Stratos Ferric]

I suspect we will see a CET breaking the 11C mark, given the 2005 wasn't actually very far away and we had three months that didn't get more then 0.1C above average abnd indeed the March was decently below aerage as well, now we are WAY above where we last year though I really can't see the summer/Autumn being as warm as las tyear, the two months that relaly did it was the July and September, both of which came in close to 3C above average.

I have to say there does seem to be an increasingly intresting trend for 3c+ months now, April i believe is something like the 4/5th over the last 12 months.

I suspect the foot will come of the gas, but climate will have (temporarily) rebased at a much higher level. Between 1990 or so and 2006 we were bouncing around at about 10.25-10.65. It's looking like we're going into a phase, IF we stop warming as markedly as we are just now, of around 10.8-11.3. We won't get year on year warming relentlessly, but it will be very much three steps forward, one back I suspect.

Wonder whether they were having these conversations about whether the 11.0c mark would have been breached in 1846? Despite it having the warmest first half of the year on record (9.52c) the year finished at 10.1c.

Given that April will come in around 11.3c if May and june came in exactly average the first 6 months would end up around 9.46c. -0.06c off the record. Still in the balance.

I'd say a 2 in 3 chance for the record falling.

Using winter + spring (i.e. starting in December) May would have to come in at 9.3C to avoid a new high mark being set. In relative terms that would be the coldest month since January 1997. Don't hold your breath.

[ukmoose]

Wonder whether they were having these conversations about whether the 11.0c mark would have been breached in 1846? Despite it having the warmest first half of the year on record (9.52c) the year finished at 10.1c.

Given that April will come in around 11.3c if May and june came in exactly average the first 6 months would end up around 9.46c. -0.06c off the record. Still in the balance.

I'd say a 2 in 3 chance for the record falling.

This isn't 1846 OP and 'times, they are a changing". Not very relevant, with all due respect.

The chances of the second half of this year coming out anywhere near that of 1846 is extremely slim and no-one would wager on it.

It's not really about if it will be warm each month now, it's about whether it will be cool enough to be only one degree or so above the long term trend or two or three degrees above and, the real question, how high can it go? Will last autumn's record warmth become the norm and so on into winter and spring?

Moose

[Stratos Ferric]

This isn't 1846 OP and 'times, they are a changing". Not very relevant, with all due respect.

The chances of the second half of this year coming out anywhere near that of 1846 is extremely slim and no-one would wager on it.

It's not really about if it will be warm each month now, it's about whether it will be cool enough to be only one degree or so above the long term trend or two or three degrees above and, the real question, how high can it go? Will last autumn's record warmth become the norm and so on into winter and spring?

Moose

Indeed.

1845 included 7 months in the coldest 10% of all time relatively, six of which were in their own month's 10% coldest of all time. 1846 included 4 months that were in the top 25 all time for thier own month. Year on year January rose by 3.1C, Feb by 5.5, March by 4.1, June by 3.3 and September by 3.3. Dramatic warming off a cold base, as I've suggested above, is reflex, and should be expected. By the same measure, if you read these pages three years ago you would have seen people make the same arguments for us being overdue similar cooling: some cooling!

[eddie]

Here is my pseudo-science CET guess:

Wikipedia reckons the global temperature went up by 0.6C in 20th Century.

YEAR CET average for past 10 years=10.46C

From glancing at the UK Yearly CET data I reckon we have gone up by about 1C which is 0.4C higher than the global average. This suggests that some of the warming we have seen is due to the prevailing synoptics rather than the base temperature of the earth.

I believe this means we could still get a period of 10 years with average cet of 10.06(ish)

Therefore my guess is 9.9C

Wow did I really guess 9.9? June-Dec would all have to come in 1C below the 1971-2000 average for me to win now.

I think a yearly CET of over 11C is looking very likely indeed.

Edited May 21, 2007 by eddie

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Sorry Stu L and Atlantic. Only just spotted this. Here you go:

eddie:9.9

Stu London:9.96

S4lancia: 10.07C

Cheeky Monkey: 10.1C

ChrisL: 10.11C

Paul Tall: 10.2C

Anti-Mild: 10.28C

Sundog: 10.3C

Kold Weather: 10.35C

Terminal Moraine:10.4

Mr Maunder: 10.42C

Mr Data: 10.46C

Blast from the Past:10.48

Stargazer:10.49

nick F: 10.5C

Snow-Man2006: 10.53C

Atlantic Flamethrower:11.55

Thundery Wintry Showers: 10.59C

Don:10.6

Reef: 10.61C

Summer Blizzard:10.68

Joneseye: 10.69C

Magpie: 10.71C

Snowmaiden: 10.74C

Gavin P: 10.8C

Stratos Ferric: 10.9C

Somerset Squall:10.9

Bessy:10.97

Optimus Prime: 10.99C

The Pit: 11C

West Is Best: 11.01C

Iceberg:11.01

high ground birm:11.05

Windswept: 11.1C

Stephen Prudence: 11.1C

Parmenides3: 11.1C

Roger J Smith:11.1

SteveB: 11.5C

Ukmoose:11.79

Craig Evans: 11.8C

Calrissian: 11.95C

jimmyay:12

Hope that's ok now but I'm sure someone will let me know if not.

Moose

Hey, why am I in the middle of the pack when I predicted 11.55C

[ukmoose]

Hey, why am I in the middle of the pack when I predicted 11.55C

Hmmm must have been a long day. I'll get it right eventually!

Moose