Annual CET 2007

[Stu_London]

I think it's a little early to call that just yet. Though the odds on a below average month are better than they've been since last August, I wouldn't desribe them as "long odds-on".

My opinion for this month being average or higher is called at 20% on the July CET thread, which I am happy to stick with.

Thats odds of 1/4, which is long odds on in my book.

It is early to call however this is a thread for such speculation. The real benefit of a below average July as far as this thread goes, will be to discourage those who make their assumptions based on every month being above average. Because when is comes to the UK weather, to ASSUME makes an ASS out of U and ME

[summer blizzard]

Should July come in at 15.7C or lower, will of lost 4 cumilative degrees on last year, which is half of out net gain thus far.

[Stratos Ferric]

My opinion for this month being average or higher is called at 20% on the July CET thread, which I am happy to stick with.

Thats odds of 1/4, which is long odds on in my book.

It is early to call however this is a thread for such speculation. The real benefit of a below average July as far as this thread goes, will be to discourage those who make their assumptions based on every month being above average. Because when is comes to the UK weather, to ASSUME makes an ASS out of U and ME

Stu,

I rather think 20% is 5-1 AGAINST, not on. Either way, I don't think a bookie would call 20% either way "long". Bookie talk aside, my query was actually with the odds you were giving: I think it's early in the month to suggest "long odds on" (in the proper sense) a below average month. Short odds on, perhaps, though I'd still say it's still only evens at present. There's a lot of month left, even allowing for fundamentals that continue to favour cool. I think it will end up being a lot closer than you seem to suspect.

[pottyprof]

I feel that this year's CET record could be on a knife edge. While I think that 30C is unlikely to be reached apart from a chance for the far SE, it's the night time minima that is a major interest for me. I feel that for most of the UK, mid to high end teen minima (especially the CET area) will be the norm between the end of July and mid October. In fact, I don't think there will be much difference between daytime maxima and night time minima on a large number of occasions. I'll say about 6-8 degrees spread between day and night.

[Stu_London]

Stu,

I rather think 20% is 5-1 AGAINST, not on. Either way, I don't think a bookie would call 20% either way "long". Bookie talk aside, my query was actually with the odds you were giving: I think it's early in the month to suggest "long odds on" (in the proper sense) a below average month. Short odds on, perhaps, though I'd still say it's still only evens at present. There's a lot of month left, even allowing for fundamentals that continue to favour cool. I think it will end up being a lot closer than you seem to suspect.

My final comment on this

Long odds on was the month being below average. Therefore if I said 20% being above average then conversely I am saying the probability of a below average month is 80%

80% probability is 1/4 not 1/5(which is 83.33%)

If you insist on trying to make people look stupid when posting, I suggest you get ypur sums correct - otherwise the reserve effect tends to occur.

[osmposm]

80% probability is 1/4 not 1/5(which is 83.33%)

If you insist on trying to make people look stupid when posting, I suggest you get ypur sums correct - otherwise the reserve effect tends to occur.

Stu, your are indeed mathematically right, and Stratos is wrong - though some of the confusion may be caused by the general use of the "1/4" format for racing odds (and which looks like a quarter to a statistician who doesn't go to the races much), as opposed to "1-4", which might be clearer.

However, your rudeness isn't necessary. Stratos, although not (for once) knowing what he was talking about, did not use any rudeness in his attempted correction of you. The phrase he used was "I rather think..", which doesn't sound to me like someone trying to make you look stupid: it's just a polite expression of a contrary opinion, right or wrong.

Edited July 12, 2007 by osmposm

[Stu_London]

Stu, your are indeed mathematically right, and Stratos is wrong - though some of the confusion may be caused by the general use of the "1/4" format for racing odds (and which looks like a quarter to a statistician who doesn't go to the races much), as opposed to "1-4", which might be clearer.

However, your rudeness isn't necessary. Stratos, although not (for once) knowing what he was talking about, did not use any rudeness in his attempted correction of you. The phrase he used was "I rather think..", which doesn't sound to me like someone trying to make you look stupid: it's just a polite expression of a contrary opinion, right or wrong.

I wasn't being rude.

I may have been a little aloof, however that is how I sometimes find the correspondent I was replying to.

I have however just noticed a spelling error in my original post which makes me look rather stupid also

Edited July 12, 2007 by Stu_London

[osmposm]

Surely you wouldn't want to descend (or do I mean ascend?) to his level?! :lol:

Yes, I noticed the reserve/reverse error - but managed to stop myself commenting on it !

Ossie

[Stratos Ferric]

Stu, your are indeed mathematically right, and Stratos is wrong - though some of the confusion may be caused by the general use of the "1/4" format for racing odds (and which looks like a quarter to a statistician who doesn't go to the races much), as opposed to "1-4", which might be clearer.

However, your rudeness isn't necessary. Stratos, although not (for once) knowing what he was talking about, did not use any rudeness in his attempted correction of you. The phrase he used was "I rather think..", which doesn't sound to me like someone trying to make you look stupid: it's just a polite expression of a contrary opinion, right or wrong.

I don't think Stu was being rude, and I had miscalled 1-4, though he was incorrect in the assertion that I was trying to make him look stupid. As you said, my words suggested a desire to correct. I'm big enough to admit my errors when they occur, and I'm sure Stu is too.

[Stratos Ferric]

It certainly seems that for the time being, and barring a freakish August, we have reached the zenith for the rolling 12mth average CET.

The recent marks include: 10.82, reached in April 1948; 10.83 in April 1990; 11.07 in Oct 1995; Feb this year first breached that mark, with the 12 month rolling at that time reaching 11.23 on its way up to 11.64 at the end of April.

Around 1/3rd of all months with a rolling average >10C have occurred in the "modern climatic era" (since 1988). The current sequence is 67 months without a rolling total sub 10. Fans of cold winter be very afraid. There has never been sustained cold in a winter where the rolling average was >10C, with the exception of 1996 - which was cold rather than very cold: December 1995 and May 1996 are the last two lowest decile months w.r.t. CET temperature that we've had. It really does look increasingly like 1996 is the new 1947! Of course, if the North Atlantic stays cool through autumn then citizens of the coastal margins may well yet have all their dreams come true this year, but I wouldn't be betting on it.

[Weather-history]

One thing of note is that we have still not breeched the 18.0C mark for the daily CET mean on the quality control data for 2007 and we have to go back to 1988 for it being so late thus far.

[Optimus Prime]

It really does look increasingly like 1996 is the new 1947!

1996 was far cooler then 1947 overall;

1996; 9.19c (-0.23c)

1947; 9.57 (+0.15c)

1947 had a particularly cold late winter/early spring which was offset by an exceptionally early start to summer (May was 2.3c above average!) and a very hot summer. July was 18.6c that year (2.6c above normal) September was also warm.

[Stu_London]

1996 was far cooler then 1947 overall;

1996; 9.19c (-0.23c)

1947; 9.57 (+0.15c)

1947 had a particularly cold late winter/early spring which was offset by an exceptionally early start to summer (May was 2.3c above average!) and a very hot summer. July was 18.6c that year (2.6c above normal) September was also warm.

Is there any theory for 1996 - it's a big blot on the landscape - did we see any major volcanic eruptions in 94/95

[Stratos Ferric]

1996 was far cooler then 1947 overall;

1996; 9.19c (-0.23c)

1947; 9.57 (+0.15c)

1947 had a particularly cold late winter/early spring which was offset by an exceptionally early start to summer (May was 2.3c above average!) and a very hot summer. July was 18.6c that year (2.6c above normal) September was also warm.

I was meaning reference winter, not the whole year. To be clear, a winter as cold as 1996 is probably about as cold as we could reasonably expect to get now.

[Stu_London]

I was meaning reference winter, not the whole year. To be clear, a winter as cold as 1996 is probably about as cold as we could reasonably expect to get now.

As an overall temperature for the season I would probably have to agree.

I reckon a Jan 1987 type event could happen though. Although -20 850hpa probably would mean -5C or -6C on the ground rather than the -9C or -10C

[Stu_London]

If Hadley confirms at 15.1C then we have only 6.4 cumulative degrees in hand of last years values to see 11C breached.

Statistically over half of that is likely to disappear in July which makes 11C very much a longshot now considering we have no cold months to play with and another two (Sep/Oct) in the record or near record category.

In fact I would go as far to say that beating last year may (10.82) may now be odds against.

Time to bump this up again.

A Hadley july CET of 15.5 would see us losing 4.2 degrees from last year. This would mean only 2.2 degrees left in hand to breach 11C for the year.

Unless we see some remarkable pattern change in August which brings in a hot month, I think we can forget about 11C and start to focus on whether last years 10.82C is going to be beaten.

We still have 4.3 cumulative degrees on 2006 (although this is down from a peak 9.7 in April) and we are up against a record Autumn and a mild December - so I would say that beating 10.82 is looking less likely also.

The way things are going, I wouldn't be surprised if we are looking at a value south of 10.5C in a couple of months time.

[Duncan McAlister]

Time to bump this up again.

A Hadley july CET of 15.5 would see us losing 4.2 degrees from last year. This would mean only 2.2 degrees left in hand to breach 11C for the year.

Unless we see some remarkable pattern change in August which brings in a hot month, I think we can forget about 11C and start to focus on whether last years 10.82C is going to be beaten.

We still have 4.3 cumulative degrees on 2006 (although this is down from a peak 9.7 in April) and we are up against a record Autumn and a mild December - so I would say that beating 10.82 is looking less likely also.

The way things are going, I wouldn't be surprised if we are looking at a value south of 10.5C in a couple of months time.

It would be some turnaround from what looked a certain 11C+ only a couple of month ago. But, just one exceptionally warm month could swing everything back the other way. After all, was it not after last August that people were still contemplating a single figure CET?

[Stu_London]

It would be some turnaround from what looked a certain 11C+ only a couple of month ago. But, just one exceptionally warm month could swing everything back the other way. After all, was it not after last August that people were still contemplating a single figure CET?

That's why I cite a pattern change.

If August was to come in around average then it's difficult to envisage a very warm autumn

[Optimus Prime]

If July comes in at 15.4c the average anomaly upto July 31st will be +1.6c against the 61-90 normal. That translates into a yearly figure of 11.02c. If August comes in average then the year anomaly so far uptil 31st August will be +1.4c equaling last years average of 10.82c.

If every month from August to December is average the anomaly would be +0.9c and so 10.32c would be achieved.

A single figure yearly CET is still very slightly possible but very unlikely. The lowest I can see is 10.4c and the highest 11.2c.

[Stratos Ferric]

It would be some turnaround from what looked a certain 11C+ only a couple of month ago. But, just one exceptionally warm month could swing everything back the other way. After all, was it not after last August that people were still contemplating a single figure CET?

I don't think 11+ was ever "certain", despite one or two more excessive views hereabouts. The rolling figure got up to around 11.4C as I recall, but it was never likely that last year's exceptional h2 would be repeated. 11+ still isn't out of the question given that August last year was distinctly average, but for it to be at all a realistic prospect this August would need to come in well above par. Even then we'd still need a mild autumn.

[Stu_London]

Not at all. When I last checked we had about 8 or 9 cumulative degrees in hand, and remember that last August only just touched long term par. We could afford big drops against last year's record breaking months, and still have margin in hand to reach 11. I'm away from my core stats but I'm fairly sure that I'm right in saying that the second half of the year would need to be decidedly cool by recent standards in order to avoid certainly an increase on last year's overall record breaker, and then, in all probability, breaching 11.00C.

That'll be you then SF

:lol:

I don't think 11+ was ever certain, despite one or two more excessive views hereabouts.

Edited July 26, 2007 by Stu_London

[Stratos Ferric]

That'll be you then SF

:lol:

It would indeed.

How careless of me NOT to caveat my comment with eventualities that appear to be turning up.

In any case, it's a little early to crow yet. I spent last autumn discussing the likelihood of a record breaking year with several people who clung on to it not happening. If August is cool, then we're all but certainly sub 11; if it's warm, then it can't yet be ruled out.

[Optimus Prime]

The last 7 months;

January; 7.0c (+2.8c)

February; 5.8c (+1.6c)

March; 7.2c (+0.9c)

April; 11.2 (+3.1c)

May; 11.9c (+0.6c)

June; 15.1c (+1.0c)

July; 15.2c (-1.3c)

August to the 2nd 15.9c (-0.3c)

Anomaly to the 31st July; +1.2c. If the anomaly remains the same the yearly temperature of 10.95c would be the result. If August were to come in 1.3c below average the anomoly would be 0.9c above (10.65c)

[Stratos Ferric]

To the end of July we're about 4.5 cum C ahead of 2006. If August comes in at around 16.8, that nudges the difference to +5C. Thereafter, returning the current 30-year mean would bring us in at just above 10.6C. The ten year mean would yield 10.7C. A second half as cold as anything since 1988 would bring us in at 10.47C. If the next five months match the past ten years then we're headed for 10.78C.

Though cooler than it has been for some time, the North Atlantic is now warming. IF that continues I wouldn't bank on a cool autumn, and my hunch would be for a fine autumn in any case, and perhaps a warm (though not quite so warm as last year) one. Combined with the general trend to warmer months rather than cool ones (August will be an interesting test) I suspect we're still headed for a yearly outturn that passes the previous high water mark.

[SMU]

To the end of July we're about 4.5 cum C ahead of 2006. If August comes in at around 16.8, that nudges the difference to +5C. Thereafter, returning the current 30-year mean would bring us in at just above 10.6C. The ten year mean would yield 10.7C. A second half as cold as anything since 1988 would bring us in at 10.47C. If the next five months match the past ten years then we're headed for 10.78C.

Though cooler than it has been for some time, the North Atlantic is now warming. IF that continues I wouldn't bank on a cool autumn, and my hunch would be for a fine autumn in any case, and perhaps a warm (though not quite so warm as last year) one. Combined with the general trend to warmer months rather than cool ones (August will be an interesting test) I suspect we're still headed for a yearly outturn that passes the previous high water mark.

Reading your second paragraph- it would seem you are putting more stock in the fact that a warmer atlantic modifies the flow rather than the other train of thought which would be around the warmer Northern Atlantic ( V Colder Southern portion) generating a couplet wheich effetcs the position of the Mean High Pressure belt- Ie Northwards rather than Eastwards-

S