Annual CET 2007

[SP1986]

A warm year is a given i think

Well yes, of course, significantly warmer than average then (I meant)

[Stu_London]

I dont think you or anyone (me included) are in a position to say whether it would not be achieved.

I agree, however I felt the need to point out that the same period last year, which was a statisical outlier by a country mile, would need to be repeated.

however, it is in my opinion more likely that the warmest period for Oct to Dec (2006) will be repeated rather than the coldest period (1676) which would result in an annual CET of 9.44C if replicated.

Edited September 19, 2007 by Stu_London

[Gavin P]

We'll see how the rest of the year goes, but I'm thinking 2008 has a shot at being a sub 10c year. You don't get too many of them for the pound, these days.

Edited September 19, 2007 by Gavin P

[Don]

In order to achieve 10.8C (and assuming a September of 14.5C) we would require the Oct to Dec period to be almost on a par with 2006.

The Oct to Dec 2006 period was 5.9C cumulative degrees above the 1971-2000 average and was by far the warmest Oct to Dec ever. Does anyone (apart from SF) really expect this to be repeated?

I doubt it and sincerely hope not!

[SP1986]

Gavin, sub-10 is as equally a brave shout as a 11C year!! Good luck with that!

I think a quite boring end to the year, 10.5-10.7? is the most realistic, nothing groundbreaking, but Im watching with interest!! Who knows maybe itll be an exciting one for extreme weather enthusiasts (on both the warm or cold scale)

[Gavin P]

Stephen, I mean, I may go for a sub 10c year, next year - Just so theres no confusion.

[SP1986]

Stephen, I mean, I may go for a sub 10c year, next year - Just so theres no confusion.

We'll I'd be very very surprised if there wasnt at least one sub 10C year in the next 10 years so maybe there will be!

[Stu_London]

Just for fun and given the very unusual model output.

If September ends up being 13.8C

and the rest of the year comes in at 1C below the 71-00 average, the annual CET is 10.17C

Remarkable considering we were odds on for the record and 11C was even starting to look likely in May.

[Guest Mike W]

It' still possible to get 11 annau CET not probable but possible and a 10.7* to 10.* is possible still aswell, more realistic than 10.17 sadly. Their is another 3 CET months to go October November and December could come in notably above average just like that, in todays warming climate we have seen and continue to see how easily we can get robbed of a averege to below average month.

[Stu_London]

It' still possible to get 11 annau CET not probable but possible and a 10.7* to 10.* is possible still aswell, more realistic than 10.17 sadly.

To achieve 11C now would require the remaining 3 months to be higher than any other gone before - how can that be more realistic than 3 months of 1C below average, given that 2 of the last 3 months have been in that sort of range. I'm not saying it will happen but this is AGW ramping at its worst - saying record temps are more likely than slightly below average.

[SP1986]

Well to be honest Stu it would take something probably more bizarre than hitting 11C at the end of the year, than to end up below average for the year. It looks like its going to end up a normal comfortably above average year, unless somethign extreme happens to either somehow take it below average, or to 11C

[Duncan McAlister]

Well to be honest Stu it would take something probably more bizarre than hitting 11C at the end of the year, than to end up below average for the year. It looks like its going to end up a normal comfortably above average year, unless somethign extreme happens to either somehow take it below average, or to 11C

I don't think anyone is suggesting the year will be below average Stephen, merely that it's possible for the remaining 3 months to average 1C below the 1971-00 average?

Edited September 29, 2007 by Duncan McAlister

[SP1986]

I don't think anyone is suggesting the year will be below average Stephen, merely that it's possible for the remaining 3 months to average 1C below the 1971-00 average?

I'm not suggesting that people where suggesting that the year would be below average, just the question of what was more likely - 11C or a below average month. I know probably neither of them will happen though in all honesty

[Don]

I still think we'll end up at about 10.6C for the year. We are just about at the same CET level now as we were this time last year and I think it's likely that October, November and December will be colder than last year overall.

[summer blizzard]

Here is my 2007 CET forecast.

January: 1.7C (2.5C below average, coldest since 1987)* Wrong, the January CET was 7C, 2.8C above average

February: 4.7C (0.5C above average, warmest since 2004) Wrong, the February CET was 5.8C, 1.6C above average

March: 9.3C (3C above average, warmest on record)* Wrong, the March CET was 7.2C, 0.9C above average

April: 10.6C (2.5C above average, warmest since 1865)* Wrong, the April CET was 11.2C 3.1C above average

May: 11.8C (0.5C above average, coolest since 2005) Success, the May CET was 11.9C, 0.6C above average

June: 15.1C (1C above average, coolest since 2002) Success, the June CET was 15.1C, 1C above average

July: 17C (0.5C above average, coolest since 2005) Wrong, the July CET was 15.2C, 1.3C below average

August: 15.7C (0.5C below average, coolest since 1993) Success, the August CET was 15.4C, 0.8C below average

September: 14.5C (0.8C above average, coolest since 2003) Wrong, the September CET looks to be between 13.5C and 13.9C.

October: 11.4C (1C above average, coolest since 2004)

November: 8.9C (2C above average, warmest since 1994)*

December: 6.9C (1.8C above average, warmest since 1988)*

My 2007 CET forecast at this stage is... 10.63C (10.88C), with a 0.05C margin of error (60% chance of warmest year on record)...

Summary...

2(2) below average months

10(10) above average months

1(1) record warm month

4(5) very warm months (1.5C+ anomolous values)

1(0) very cold months (-1.5C anomolous value)

I have updated my forecasts from October onward.

[Don]

Here is my 2007 CET forecast.

January: 1.7C (2.5C below average, coldest since 1987)* Wrong, the January CET was 7C, 2.8C above average

February: 4.7C (0.5C above average, warmest since 2004) Wrong, the February CET was 5.8C, 1.6C above average

March: 9.3C (3C above average, warmest on record)* Wrong, the March CET was 7.2C, 0.9C above average

April: 10.6C (2.5C above average, warmest since 1865)* Wrong, the April CET was 11.2C 3.1C above average

May: 11.8C (0.5C above average, coolest since 2005) Success, the May CET was 11.9C, 0.6C above average

June: 15.1C (1C above average, coolest since 2002) Success, the June CET was 15.1C, 1C above average

July: 17C (0.5C above average, coolest since 2005) Wrong, the July CET was 15.2C, 1.3C below average

August: 15.7C (0.5C below average, coolest since 1993) Success, the August CET was 15.4C, 0.8C below average

September: 14.5C (0.8C above average, coolest since 2003) Wrong, the September CET looks to be between 13.5C and 13.9C.

October: 11.4C (1C above average, coolest since 2004)

November: 8.9C (2C above average, warmest since 1994)*

December: 6.9C (1.8C above average, warmest since 1988)*

My 2007 CET forecast at this stage is... 10.63C (10.88C), with a 0.05C margin of error (60% chance of warmest year on record)...

Summary...

2(2) below average months

10(10) above average months

1(1) record warm month

4(5) very warm months (1.5C+ anomolous values)

1(0) very cold months (-1.5C anomolous value)

I have updated my forecasts from October onward.

I hope you're wrong for the rest of the year!

:blush:

[Stratos Ferric]

To achieve 11C now would require the remaining 3 months to be higher than any other gone before - how can that be more realistic than 3 months of 1C below average, given that 2 of the last 3 months have been in that sort of range. I'm not saying it will happen but this is AGW ramping at its worst - saying record temps are more likely than slightly below average.

Stu, trying to be impartial here: if we came in 1C below the ten year running mean we'd get a year end of 10.38. However, achieving that would require a run of below par months that has not been seen since 1962 (though 1993 runs close with 5 months in the same bracket and December coming in close to par). IF that happened then I might be starting to get as carried away as newly cold-evangelised WiB seems to be.

For sure, getting back to 11 would require more record breaking - and I'm not saying it's going to happen because it's almost certainly not - BUT, the recent form is that pretty much every duration record that falls is a warm record, not a cold one. For all intents and purposes, the outcomes are equally likely, i.e. very highly improbable: since you like numbers they're out beyond 250-1.

I don't think anyone is suggesting the year will be below average Stephen, merely that it's possible for the remaining 3 months to average 1C below the 1971-00 average?

Possible, but not likely. You have to go back to 1993 (and 1992) for the last instance. A time when CETs were in the mid 9s, and Leeds were winning the top division in football. Again, eye opening if it were to happen.

[Weather-history]

By the end of.......

January, it was the 5th warmest start to a year

February, it was the 4th warmest start to a year

March, it was joint 5th warmest first quarter to a year

April, it was the warmest first third to a year

May, it was the warmest first 5 months to a year

June, it was the warmest first half to a year

July, it was the 3rd warmest such period

August, it was the 9th warmest such period

If September is 13.8, then it is the 12th warmest Jan-Sept period

[Stu_London]

For sure, getting back to 11 would require more record breaking - and I'm not saying it's going to happen because it's almost certainly not - BUT, the recent form is that pretty much every duration record that falls is a warm record, not a cold one. For all intents and purposes, the outcomes are equally likely, i.e. very highly improbable: since you like numbers they're out beyond 250-1

Don't get me wrong, I think each scenario is highly unlikely- was merely pointing out that to suggest 11 was still on the radar was probably wrong. Record year is probably dead in the water too

A time when CETs were in the mid 9s, and Leeds were winning the top division in football. Again, eye opening if it were to happen.

I am sure that referees would send the whole team off if that ever looked anywhere near likely again

[Stratos Ferric]

Don't get me wrong, I think each scenario is highly unlikely- was merely pointing out that to suggest 11 was still on the radar was probably wrong. Record year is probably dead in the water too

I am sure that referees would send the whole team off if that ever looked anywhere near likely again

Re point 1: I tend to agree, though a warm October is starting to look better than evens, even at this early stage - that might change the outlook for the year somewhat. A new record is a huge stretch now, but no.2 in the all time list starts to look more likely than was the case 2-3 weeks ago.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Re point 1: I tend to agree, though a warm October is starting to look better than evens, even at this early stage - that might change the outlook for the year somewhat. A new record is a huge stretch now, but no.2 in the all time list starts to look more likely than was the case 2-3 weeks ago.

Even with the warm runs becoming less warm now SF? Way too early to call a warm October IMO as the very warm elongated warm draw slowly ebbs away and we are only the 2nd. Also the models are a wee bit all over the place.

BFTP

[Optimus Prime]

Re point 1: I tend to agree, though a warm October is starting to look better than evens, even at this early stage -

I'd hate for things to go wrong like they did for you in September.....

[Eugene]

Yes it's way too premature to be calling a warm October esp with the way the runs are heading, warm southerly plumes just aren't arriving to our shores this week is a perfect example, a near average October is the best bet maybe even below average.

[SP1986]

I would actually put this current phase of weather as a warm southerly plume, felt physically warm yesterday for the first time in a while. So they have been coming off its just that the FI extreme cases tend not to. I wouldnt write off a warm spell of weather yet though until theres absolutely no chance of it in the charts. That said cold scenario is in the same position. I think like you say distinctly average is likely. Is average the new below average?

[Stratos Ferric]

Yes it's way too premature to be calling a warm October esp with the way the runs are heading, warm southerly plumes just aren't arriving to our shores this week is a perfect example, a near average October is the best bet maybe even below average.

Eugene, can you explain to me why it's too early to be calling for a mild October, but not too early to be calling for an average or cold one?

I'd hate for things to go wrong like they did for you in September.....

It's very kind, and most unlike you, to worry about me so OP. At the end of the day it's just an opinion though; I'm sure I'll live either way.