Annual CET 2007

[Stu_London]

I suspect we're still headed for a yearly outturn that passes the previous high water mark.

Odds against I would suggest -

Revised probabilities as I see them (I will use percentages not odds as I am not Ladbrokes and also some people struggle with odds)

11.0C + 15%

10.83C + 40%

10.75C + 50%

10.5C + 85%

10C + 98.5%

[Stratos Ferric]

Reading your second paragraph- it would seem you are putting more stock in the fact that a warmer atlantic modifies the flow rather than the other train of thought which would be around the warmer Northern Atlantic ( V Colder Southern portion) generating a couplet wheich effetcs the position of the Mean High Pressure belt- Ie Northwards rather than Eastwards-

S

Good to hear from you again Steve.

I don't buy into precise TCs as strongly as you do (not to say I think you're wrong by the way), and my hunch is more based on the net warming / cooling effect on the boundary layer, than on the feedback to the synoptics. IF the NA stays as it is, then we might continue unsettled and cool, however, as the thermal equator drifts south the modifying impact of the current of the current anomalies might tend to work in the opposite direction to the summer effect. (i.e. instead of holding the jet S of norm, inducing a NE swing mid Atlantic). That might lead to either HP forming around our locale or slightly E of the UK, or a split jet - in which case an island HP couldn't be ruled out. For lovers of cold it would, obviously, be preferable to have cooler water to our N and NE, instead of way off to our SW.

I'm watching August with interest.

[summer blizzard]

Here is my 2007 CET forecast.

January: 1.7C (2.5C below average, coldest since 1987)* Wrong, the January CET was 7C, 2.8C above average

February: 4.7C (0.5C above average, warmest since 2004) Wrong, the February CET was 5.8C, 1.6C above average

March: 9.3C (3C above average, warmest on record)* Wrong, the March CET was 7.2C, 0.9C above average

April: 10.6C (2.5C above average, warmest since 1865)* Wrong, the April CET was 11.2C 3.1C above average

May: 11.8C (0.5C above average, coolest since 2005) Success, the May CET was 11.9C, 0.6C above average

June: 15.1C (1C above average, coolest since 2002) Success, the June CET was 15.1C, 1C above average

July: 17C (0.5C above average, coolest since 2005) Wrong, the July CET was 15.2C, 1.3C below average

August: 15.7C (0.5C below average, coolest since 1993)

September: 11.2C (2.5C below average, coolest since 1952)*

October: 8.4C (2C below average, coolest since 1992)*

November: 4.5C (2.4C below average, coolest since 1985)*

December: 5.6C (0.5C above average, coolest since 2005)

My 2007 CET forecast at this stage is... 9.63C (9.90C), with a 0.05C margin of error.

Summary...

5 below average months

7 above average months

1 record warm month

2 very warm months (1.5C+ anomolous values)

4 very cold months (-1.5C anomolous value)

I have updated my forecasts and also revised all other months from there on.

My Autumn predictions are likely to be revised upward, thus so is my yearly forecast.

[Gavin P]

Yes SB, I'm expecting a cooler autumn than in recent years, but nothing as extreme as you've got there!

[Snowly does it]

Yes SB, I'm expecting a cooler autumn than in recent years, but nothing as extreme as you've got there!

Those figures would make it the equal 14th coldest Autumn on record. Nice for cold lovers but something of a pipe dream in these days.

I still favour the record going - if August comes in less then 16 however I think the game is up for a record year this year.

[Bobby]

I highly doubt myself we will see 3 months in a row 2c+ below average each. When was the last time we had -2c month? Must be a long long time ago. 3 in a row? More chance of winning the lottery I think. Is there anything you are seeing to suggest this might happen?

Anything is possible though I suppose.

I myself think that the 3 Autumn months will be about +0.5c above average each.

Edited August 5, 2007 by Magpie

[The PIT]

Well I can see September, October and November going wrong temp wise anyway.

[Scorcher]

Yes I think you'll be miles off with September- impressed with April, May and June though.

[Stratos Ferric]

Here is my 2007 CET forecast.

...My 2007 CET forecast at this stage is... 9.63C (9.90C), with a 0.05C margin of error.

Summary...

5 below average months

7 above average months

1 record warm month

2 very warm months (1.5C+ anomolous values)

4 very cold months (-1.5C anomolous value)

I have updated my forecasts and also revised all other months from there on.

My Autumn predictions are likely to be revised upward, thus so is my yearly forecast.

SB, I never understand why you don't update your forecast for what HAS actually happened.

Nonetheless it's a very bold projection. Assuming August comes in at 16.8C autumn would then need to yield no more than 28.1 cumulative degrees. That happened only once in the last century, in 1952, and since then we haven't been even remotely close. Since 1993 no auOn that autumn has yielded less than 34 degrees, and apart from 1996 (34.1) the baseline is 36 cumC.

On that basis, the baseline for this year, which would still require a cool autumn by modern standards, is 10.5C.

[summer blizzard]

Stratos, the figure in brackets is what has occured and what would occur if August onwards followed my predictions.

[West is Best]

August: 15.7C (0.5C below average, coolest since 1993)

I find this sort of thing bizarre. The synoptics are nowhere near as cold as last August, yet you go for something much cooler?

I suggest that quite the opposite is likely: we're heading for an above, and possibly well above, month. It may not be blistering, but it's certainly heading that way at the moment.

(Note to mushy: if it's currently 1.6C above average it's not very very normal)

[kold weather]

I can see why West even though I have different idea about August set-up, you do have to remember the two July's we have just come out relaly couldn't be more different, we had a very dry and hot July last year while this year we had a cooler then average July and importantly both cooler SSt's and a much wetter soil which would limit the temps a touch and so if you have a similar set-up then temps would be below 06, indeed a much more moderate set-up might even give a cooler CET then 06 August. The set-up for the UK in last July was in the end was a very close match to July 2002 in terms of synoptics (Indeed we even had the late month heatwave like 2002!) but I think the wet soil helped to keep the CET a reasonable amount lower.

However I do think August looks a little warmer then recent months and higher then the 06 August though it may well be the last of the year thats like that given how amazingly above average the last 4 months of 06 were.

[Weather-history]

I find this sort of thing bizarre. The synoptics are nowhere near as cold as last August, yet you go for something much cooler?

How can you tell, Richard when its only the 6th?

The current CET is similiar to last August's at this stage, the first few days of August 2006 were not that cool.

Edited August 6, 2007 by Mr_Data

[Stu_London]

I find this sort of thing bizarre. The synoptics are nowhere near as cold as last August, yet you go for something much cooler?

I suggest that quite the opposite is likely: we're heading for an above, and possibly well above, month. It may not be blistering, but it's certainly heading that way at the moment.

(Note to mushy: if it's currently 1.6C above average it's not very very normal)

Correction - Philips year on year graph has us (just) below last years figures and we are out of the hot bit now - edit MR D beat me to it

Edited August 6, 2007 by Stu_London

[summer blizzard]

I find this sort of thing bizarre. The synoptics are nowhere near as cold as last August, yet you go for something much cooler?

I suggest that quite the opposite is likely: we're heading for an above, and possibly well above, month. It may not be blistering, but it's certainly heading that way at the moment.

(Note to mushy: if it's currently 1.6C above average it's not very very normal)

We are currently 0.5C above the rolling average...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

We have no major warm plume in sight...

http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/200708.htm

We are also currently below this time last year...

I accept that synoptics dont look as cold however we have little latent heat left, thus we could still come lower.

This is a discussion for somewhere else, so lets discuss this in the relevant CET thread.

As for my Autumn predictions, i hav'nt even got all the data for November yet, so that probably will change, my September and October CET predictions at worst will be around average, however i am expecting a cool Autumn.

[Scorcher]

I can see why West even though I have different idea about August set-up, you do have to remember the two July's we have just come out relaly couldn't be more different, we had a very dry and hot July last year while this year we had a cooler then average July and importantly both cooler SSt's and a much wetter soil which would limit the temps a touch and so if you have a similar set-up then temps would be below 06, indeed a much more moderate set-up might even give a cooler CET then 06 August. The set-up for the UK in last July was in the end was a very close match to July 2002 in terms of synoptics (Indeed we even had the late month heatwave like 2002!) but I think the wet soil helped to keep the CET a reasonable amount lower.

However I do think August looks a little warmer then recent months and higher then the 06 August though it may well be the last of the year thats like that given how amazingly above average the last 4 months of 06 were.

It's interesting you mention damp soil- it's amazing how much the soil has dried in this area thanks to a week or so of mainly dry weather. It's surprising how quickly things can dry out with the strong sun at this time of year. I've been down to the woods quite a few times close to where I live and it's bone dry down there. It's one of the reasons why I think August will turn out to be considerably warmer than July, we were getting constant deluges in July which kept the ground saturated pretty much right through the month.

[Weather-history]

Here is my 2007 CET forecast.

April: 10.6C (2.5C above average, warmest since 1865)* Wrong, the April CET was 11.2C 3.1C above average

September: 11.2C (2.5C below average, coolest since 1952)*

April having the same CET as September?

Thats never happened and hasn't even come that close to it neither.

[Bobby]

My CET forecast of 10.7 was looking in deep trouble earlier this year but with this cool summer, it may be plausible after all. Still think it will be a bi higher, perhaps 10.8-11.1

[Stu_London]

My CET forecast of 10.7 was looking in deep trouble earlier this year but with this cool summer, it may be plausible after all. Still think it will be a bi higher, perhaps 10.8-11.1

I reckon 10.7 is on the money

[Mr Sleet]

To the end of July we're about 4.5 cum C ahead of 2006. If August comes in at around 16.8, that nudges the difference to +5C. Thereafter, returning the current 30-year mean would bring us in at just above 10.6C. The ten year mean would yield 10.7C. A second half as cold as anything since 1988 would bring us in at 10.47C. If the next five months match the past ten years then we're headed for 10.78C.

Though cooler than it has been for some time, the North Atlantic is now warming. IF that continues I wouldn't bank on a cool autumn, and my hunch would be for a fine autumn in any case, and perhaps a warm (though not quite so warm as last year) one. Combined with the general trend to warmer months rather than cool ones (August will be an interesting test) I suspect we're still headed for a yearly outturn that passes the previous high water mark.

Another case of hopecasting I fear. I'd like to see evidence/stats for your claims, not hunches. I don't see any evidence that the North Atlantic is anomalously warming - I think you want to see a higher CET than 2006 so this is getting in the way of your better judgment.

Edited August 13, 2007 by Mr Sleet

[Stratos Ferric]

Another case of hopecasting I fear. I'd like to see evidence/stats for your claims, not hunches. I don't see any evidence that the North Atlantic is anomalously warming - I think you want to see a higher CET than 2006 so this is getting in the way of your better judgment.

I have re read my post several times and cannot for the life of me see where I suggested the Atlantic was anomalously warming - what I said is that it has been, and remains, cool, but is now starting to warm: routine monitoring of the SSTs over the past few months is all the data you need. If you're going to try taking a pot (which is a bit rich coming from one of the most partizan "nothing but cold" posters on N-W) at least aim at what was actually written, rather than your wilder imaginings of what I might have written were I even half as biased as you seem to think I am, and as you generally are.

I don't "want to see" anything in particular: I am merely giving a clearly reasoned opinion as to what I think might happen. A more heavily caveated post it would hard to imagine. We will need, by recent standards, a cool autumn to come in below last year's outturn CET: that is an absolutely indisputable fact. Hardly "hopecasting".

[Stratos Ferric]

Another case of hopecasting I fear. I'd like to see evidence/stats for your claims, not hunches. I don't see any evidence that the North Atlantic is anomalously warming - I think you want to see a higher CET than 2006 so this is getting in the way of your better judgment.

Now, I might be reading those charts completely wrong Mr Sleet, but it looks to me like the Atlantic is still cool by recent standards (see the comparison with October last year) but warming compared to where it was in early June.

[Optimus Prime]

It might be warmer ebcause the sun's been shining on it for longer?

[Stu_London]

Now, I might be reading those charts completely wrong Mr Sleet, but it looks to me like the Atlantic is still cool by recent standards (see the comparison with October last year) but warming compared to where it was in early June.

Warmer than June but still very cool by last years standards.

[Stratos Ferric]

Warmer than June but still very cool by last years standards.

I wish I'd said that.

Oooh, silly me, I did. The lengths that some people will go to to increase their post count seems to know no bounds.

Edited August 15, 2007 by Stratos Ferric