Annual CET 2007

[Stratos Ferric]

Interesting that if August comes in at 15.8

and the rest of the year comes in at average (71-00)

we will have 10.44C which is coolest (joint) in the last six years

An outrun for the rest of the year of 0.5C below average would give us

10.27C

1C below average 10.11C

Sounds ridiculous against some of the outcomes that looked likely earlier in the year, but worth noting that cooler than average tends to come in batches.

...although, as I noted previously, you need to go back quite a way to find six months on the bounce sub-par c.f. the 30 year rolling mean. However, against the 10 year mean you only need go back to Nov 05-April 06, during which the average defecit was almost 1.0C per month.

[Snowly does it]

Just doing some musing here and if August were to trot in on the back of some cooler nights at 15.9 then we could (if September doesn't go bezerk in the warm bracket) record the warmest ever year without a single month coming in above 16 and with the September of the previous year warmer than any summer month in the warmest ever year.

Random Quote removed by the ministry of tired girls

Edited August 24, 2007 by snowmaiden

[Stratos Ferric]

Just doing some musing here and if August were to trot in on the back of some cooler nights at 15.9 then we could (if September doesn't go bezerk in the warm bracket) record the warmest ever year without a single month coming in above 16 and with the September of the previous year warmer than any summer month in the warmest ever year.

Random Quote removed by the ministry of tired girls

We'd need a run of warm months now, or one or two near record breakers and nothing else cold, to get close to last year's mark from here. I think a more interesting marker now is no.2 on the all time UK list as the topside line to watch, and coldest since 2001 (<10.44) at the low end. Second coldest in the last ten (10.27C would be needed) is the low-end back-stop for me. I think we're looking at around 10.6 now; 10.45 would be my low-end marker if the oceans stay cold. The spoiler for sustained cold is the very warm to our north: I can hear the cries for the winter already.."right synoptics but bad luck with the SSTs...there's always next winter...".

[Gavin P]

Its amazing how quickly things can turn around though, isn't it? Back towards the end of April it looked odds on that 2007 would be an 11+ CET year.

[summer blizzard]

Here is my 2007 CET forecast.

January: 1.7C (2.5C below average, coldest since 1987)* Wrong, the January CET was 7C, 2.8C above average

February: 4.7C (0.5C above average, warmest since 2004) Wrong, the February CET was 5.8C, 1.6C above average

March: 9.3C (3C above average, warmest on record)* Wrong, the March CET was 7.2C, 0.9C above average

April: 10.6C (2.5C above average, warmest since 1865)* Wrong, the April CET was 11.2C 3.1C above average

May: 11.8C (0.5C above average, coolest since 2005) Success, the May CET was 11.9C, 0.6C above average

June: 15.1C (1C above average, coolest since 2002) Success, the June CET was 15.1C, 1C above average

July: 17C (0.5C above average, coolest since 2005) Wrong, the July CET was 15.2C, 1.3C below average

August: 15.7C (0.5C below average, coolest since 1993) Success, the August CET looks to be between 15.7C and 16.2C.

September: 14.5C (0.8C above average, coolest since 2003)

October: 9.9C (0.5C below average, coolest since 2003)

November: 7.9C (1C above average, coolest since 2005)

December: 6.3C (1.2C above average, coolest since 2005)

My 2007 CET forecast at this stage is... 10.38C (10.64C), with a 0.05C margin of error (40% chance of second warmest year on record)...

Summary...

2(3) below average months

10(9) above average months

1(1) record warm month

2(1) very warm months (1.5C+ anomolous values)

1(0) very cold months (-1.5C anomolous value)

I have updated my forecasts to include seasonal ajustment (easterlies being warmer in summer and visa versa) and also revised all other months from September onward.

[Stratos Ferric]

Here is my 2007 CET forecast.

...

My 2007 CET forecast at this stage is... 10.38C (10.64C), with a 0.05C margin of error (40% chance of second warmest year on record)...

Summary...

2(3) below average months

10(9) above average months

1(1) record warm month

2(1) very warm months (1.5C+ anomolous values)

1(0) very cold months (-1.5C anomolous value)

I have updated my forecasts to include seasonal ajustment (easterlies being warmer in summer and visa versa) and also revised all other months from September onward.

SB, a few years ago it was my "privilege" to land at LBA international in a small turbo-prop on a night when all other wide-bodied jets were diverted or cancelled. Well do I remember the pitch and yaw of what I described to the steward on disembarkation "as an interesting experience". However, even had we been landing in a hurricane rather than a near gale, we still wouldn't have bounced around as much as your forecast for the year end.

I'm not sure of the 'odds' of such a string of '5 coldest' months would be, but I'd guess my probability of winning the lottery would be more better.

I find it really bizarre that anyone would not already safely assume we'll break the 11.0c threshold this year.

*I'm just wondering also that, lets say we get 11.25 this year. Are we going to be seeing the same type of posts next year ? 'ohh, we could still get a run of cool months to get a below 11.0 for 2008 CET ?

It remains an astounding year, yes we've had lots of rain lately, but that is mostly 'stormy' rain due to the new synoptic patterns (Isn't it ?)- yet another sign of the new 'average'.

Lately, the latest fad (which is what it is) is whether July could be cooler than June. Doesn't really matter does it. It still avoids the overall fact that things are now often 1.0-3.0 above average. We'll probably get a 'cool' 0.1c+ above average this year, and I'll be laughing at the hysteria on this board from the cold rampers.

Calrissian: living in a time of increasing change

Funny how a few weeks can change the perspective rather.

[Stratos Ferric]

...but given recent events it's equally the case that an August as relatively cool as last year's is unlikely.

lol

And another!

:lol:

SF, why did I ever doubt you? Class response mate!!!

That said, reviewing the list of "official" guesses for the year (you can never be quite sure which of his many stabs SB will use), I'd say SB is amongst a small group likely to be there or thereabouts.

[Optimus Prime]

Well we're now cooler then 1846 that had an exceptional run of warm months;

2007

January; 6.3c (+2.5c) 7.0 (+0.7c difference)

February; 6.4c (+2.6c) 5.8c (-0.6c) difference)

March; 6.1c (+0.4c) 7.2c (+1.1c difference)

April; 7.8c (-0.1c) 11.2c (+3.4c difference)

May; 12.3c (+1.1c) 11.9c (-0.4c difference)

June; 18.2c (+4.1c) 15.1c (-3.1c difference)

July; 16.5c (+0.4c) 15.2c (-1.3c difference)

August; 16.6c (+0.8c)

September; 14.7c (+1.1c)

October; 9.5c (-1.1c)

November; 6.9c (+0.4c)

December; 0.5c (-4.1c)

A remarkable year. Two months with an anomaly of 4.0c! Upto July we're 10.48c which is 0.03c below 1846. August looks to be around 1.0c below 1846 so we should be atleast 0.07c cooler by the end of August which isn't a lot but is comfortable to know there's been warmer periods in the past.

Obviously December played the biggest part in offsetting that very warm June. It would take something very similar, or a run of quite cool (-1.0c) months from September-December to get below 1846s final CET of 10.15c

Edited August 27, 2007 by Optimus Prime

[Weather-history]

By the end of.......

January, it was the 5th warmest start to a year

February, it was the 4th warmest start to a year

March, it was joint 5th warmest first quarter to a year

April, it was the warmest first third to a year

May, it was the warmest first 5 months to a year

June, it was the warmest first half to a year

July, it was the 3rd warmest such period

August, if turns out to 15.8, it will be the 8th warmest first two thirds to a year.

Edited August 29, 2007 by Mr_Data

[Stratos Ferric]

Well we're now cooler then 1846 that had an exceptional run of warm months;

2007

January; 6.3c (+2.5c) 7.0 (+0.7c difference)

February; 6.4c (+2.6c) 5.8c (-0.6c) difference)

March; 6.1c (+0.4c) 7.2c (+1.1c difference)

April; 7.8c (-0.1c) 11.2c (+3.4c difference)

May; 12.3c (+1.1c) 11.9c (-0.4c difference)

June; 18.2c (+4.1c) 15.1c (-3.1c difference)

July; 16.5c (+0.4c) 15.2c (-1.3c difference)

August; 16.6c (+0.8c)

September; 14.7c (+1.1c)

October; 9.5c (-1.1c)

November; 6.9c (+0.4c)

December; 0.5c (-4.1c)

A remarkable year. Two months with an anomaly of 4.0c! Upto July we're 10.48c which is 0.03c below 1846. August looks to be around 1.0c below 1846 so we should be atleast 0.07c cooler by the end of August which isn't a lot but is comfortable to know there's been warmer periods in the past.

Obviously December played the biggest part in offsetting that very warm June. It would take something very similar, or a run of quite cool (-1.0c) months from September-December to get below 1846s final CET of 10.15c

I'm assuming that you have NOT referenced 1846 to its own reference period (whether the thirty years to 1840, or the rolling the thirty to 1846), because my anomalies are lower than those you've quoted.

That notwithstanding, 1846 was a warm year by any measure 8th warmest at the time, and now 27th), and one of only seven years where every season was at least 0.5C warmer than the 30 year average current at the time. The last such occurrence was 1989.

Interestingly, the last time we had a seasonal anomaly below par was only Spring 2006, but you have to go back to 1996 for a season with an anomaly of >0.5C below the norm. Since then there have been 26 warm seasons (>0.5C above the norm).

[Stu_London]

With August in at 15.4C, somewhere around the 10.5C for the annual figure is looking more and more likely.

The warmest I could see now is about 10.75C. At the other end of the scale a figure of 10.2C-10.3C could still be achieved if the cool recent months were replacated through the autumn and early winter.

[Optimus Prime]

Here's the worlds anomaly (upto July)

All of Europe has an anomaly of +1.0c or greater with almost all of western Europe being some 2.0c above normal. North Russia is as much as +5.0c above normal. The very far south west of Europe is around 0.8c above.

North America is also warm with western areas around 1.5c above. Eastern parts only aorund 0.6c above to 0.5c below. Southern and South Eastern area of the US are 0.8c below to 2.0c below to parts of Florida. Mexico is 1.0c above to the south and 0.5c below to the north.

In fact the only country I can see that is below normal more southern areas of South American. Argentina looks particularily cold so far this year.

[Stratos Ferric]

With August in at 15.4C, somewhere around the 10.5C for the annual figure is looking more and more likely.

The warmest I could see now is about 10.75C. At the other end of the scale a figure of 10.2C-10.3C could still be achieved if the cool recent months were replacated through the autumn and early winter.

10.3 looks far too cold Stu. It would require a run of cold not seen since 1993, and about the same sort of magnitude of sustained coolness. Even an around average run in brings us in a tad under 10.6. The sensible outer-marker for me is 10.5 on the low end, perhaps 10.4 if I had to make a living out of it and wanter to protect the shirt on my back. If it comes in any lower than that then I'll be recanting my view that a sub 1C is no longer possible, at least for this winter.

[Mr Sleet]

Here's the worlds anomaly (upto July)

All of Europe has an anomaly of +1.0c or greater with almost all of western Europe being some 2.0c above normal. North Russia is as much as +5.0c above normal. The very far south west of Europe is around 0.8c above.

North America is also warm with western areas around 1.5c above. Eastern parts only aorund 0.6c above to 0.5c below. Southern and South Eastern area of the US are 0.8c below to 2.0c below to parts of Florida. Mexico is 1.0c above to the south and 0.5c below to the north.

In fact the only country I can see that is below normal more southern areas of South American. Argentina looks particularily cold so far this year.

Fascinating , thanks OP. You forgot the Antarctica region, which is lower generally and this may explain the increased sea ice area this winter.

Edited September 10, 2007 by Mr Sleet

[Duncan McAlister]

This year almost seems like 2006 in reverse, this time a mild start being offset by a cool second half. A September of 14C, together with an average (1971-00) October-December gives an outturn of 10.42C, a figure which would just have been unthinkable at the end of April and would actually be the 2nd coolest year of the decade. A more realistic figure would perhaps be 10.5-10.6C, allowing for a mild month or two. 10.4C though, with the way synoptics have been going, is far from impossible. Interesting times....

[North-Easterly Blast]

I wouldn't exactly call this year as looking like 2006 in reverse. 2006 only had a rather cool first quarter to the year, and in late March mild weather came along and was consistently above average from April onwards, so the first half of 2006 was far from cool. 2007 has seen a very warm first half, and the warmest first third to a year on record, and July and August have been rather cool, but September isn't exactly going the same way so far, we have got to the 19th and the CET is about 1*C above the long term mean so far, and there is now very little chance of a below average CET for September, and it will take a pretty cool spell with some cool nights in particular like Monday night of this week to enable us to achieve a close to average CET this month.

It yet remains to be seen as to what the final quarter of this year (Oct-Dec) will bring, and no-one can accurately predict this in detail in advance, but I agree with you that in May it looked as though 11*C+ was certain for the 2007 Annual CET, but after a relatively cool summer it is not looking a realistic possibility that 11*C will be hit.

[eddie]

It would certainly take something special to get us above 11C now. Still possible that we could beat 2006 but even that is starting to look unlikely.

[Stu_London]

10.5 to 10.6 looks the most likely outcome however the we still have 25% of the year to go yet so nothing is certain.

[Duncan McAlister]

I will bet anyone ten million of your European Euros that we'll hit a 2007 CET of 11.25 or more. Anyone suggesting anything below 10.75 is insane and psychological stuck in the pre 1980s climate era. Let me note that neither is it wish casting on my part. I do not look forward to endless sleepless nights when the night temps are above 15c.

It is 2007, the Jump year.

Cough up

[Guest Mike W]

10.75 is still possible to be fair, even 10.8* is possible, probably not likely but possible. Wouldn't surprise me after last year.

Edited September 19, 2007 by Mike W

[SP1986]

11C is doubtful, but not impossible! I agree that its likely to be around 10.7 to 10.8 - but having said that, thats still the record nearly broken?

[Don]

10.75 is still possible to be fair, even 10.8* is possible, probably not likely but possible. Wouldn't surprise me after last year.

Well I think we'll end up with an annual CET of around 10.6C on a par with 2002. This is what I predicted earlier in the year so that would be good news for some of us at least!

[Stu_London]

11C is doubtful, but not impossible! I agree that its likely to be around 10.7 to 10.8 - but having said that, thats still the record nearly broken?

In order to achieve 10.8C (and assuming a September of 14.5C) we would require the Oct to Dec period to be almost on a par with 2006.

The Oct to Dec 2006 period was 5.9C cumulative degrees above the 1971-2000 average and was by far the warmest Oct to Dec ever. Does anyone (apart from SF) really expect this to be repeated?

[SP1986]

In order to achieve 10.8C (and assuming a September of 14.5C) we would require the Oct to Dec period to be almost on a par with 2006.

The Oct to Dec 2006 period was 5.9C cumulative degrees above the 1971-2000 average and was by far the warmest Oct to Dec ever. Does anyone (apart from SF) really expect this to be repeated?

I think you should hold judgement until it actually happens, it would be awfully hypocritical of someone to discount anything before it happens. That said theres a fair chunk of the year left - and while it could be pretty unextreme, it could be either very cold, or very warm too. I think ANYONE would be foolish to discount a warm year though. I dont think you or anyone (me included) are in a position to say whether it would not be achieved.

However FYI I do suggest that its out of the question that it could be repeated, that said I do see it is unlikely as it stands.

[Stu_London]

I think ANYONE would be foolish to discount a warm year though.

A warm year is a given i think