Annual CET 2007

[The PIT]

Happy with mine 11C it's already got a good start with Jan and Feb looking to be mild although not as high as Jan.

[ukmoose]

Who dare climb the highest? Good question. Let's see; winter is turning out to be one of the mildest on record (until next winter that is...); I think spring will be warm and summer; similarly for autumn and the start of winter. So that leaves me with no alternative but to plump for a well over the odds 11.79 degrees C. I have absloutely no idea what the warmest year on record is, but 2007 may well smash it.

Moose

[Thundery wintry showers]

Who dare climb the highest? Good question. Let's see; winter is turning out to be one of the mildest on record (until next winter that is...); I think spring will be warm and summer; similarly for autumn and the start of winter. So that leaves me with no alternative but to plump for a well over the odds 11.79 degrees C. I have absloutely no idea what the warmest year on record is, but 2007 may well smash it.

Moose

...it was last year!

[high ground birmingham]

I'm going for a Annual CET of 11.05C with an exceptionally warm May,August and November this year and the only 'cool' month being March 2007. I believe November 2007 will be the warmest on record.

[Somerset Squall]

10.9C

[Thundery wintry showers]

There seem to be a lot of people going for a record-breaking year in 2007, and by a large margin- and there was me thinking that my 10.59C might be a bit high!

[ukmoose]

...it was last year!

Whoops! Yes, TW, I did know that! I meant to say I couldn't recall what the CET for 2006 was but I think 2007 will be there or there abouts.

Moose

[Terminal Moraine]

10.4c

T.M

[Iceberg]

11.01 but only becuase of an average spring.

[Don]

My CET prediction for 2007 is 10.6C.

[summer blizzard]

Here is my 2007 CET forecast.

January: 1.7C (2.5C below average, coldest since 1987)* Wrong, the January CET was in the region of 6.7C to 7.2C, 2.5C to 3C above average

February: 4.7C (0.5C above average, warmest since 2004)

March: 9.3C (3C above average, warmest on record)*

April: 10.6C (2.5C above average, warmest since 1865)*

May: 12.3C (1C above average, has the potential to be the coolest since 2005 or warmest since 1999)

June: 15.7C (1.6C above average, warmest since 2006)*

July: 18.3C (1.8C above average, warmest since 2006)*

August: 16C (0.2C below average, coolest since 1998)

September: 13.4C (0.3C below average, coolest since 2001)

October: 12.9C (2.5C above average, coolest since 2004)*

November: 10C (3.1C above average, warmest since 1994)*

December: 8.6C (3.5C above average, warmest on record)*

My 2007 CET forecast at this stage is... 11.13C, with a 0.05C margin of error.

Summary...

2 below average months

10 above average months

2 record warm months

7 very warm months (1.5C+ anomolous values)

I have updated my May forecast and also revised my summer forecast to include a warmer June and July than previously forecast.

[Bessy]

Is it to late for me add my Year CET prediction of 10.97*c because it would seem just likely that everyone on these froums coursing a fuss about the CET hitting the 11*c mark, and then a colder than average December to ruin it all for you

[Roger J Smith]

Just to give a figure for the list, I said between 11.0 and 11.15, which would set alarm bells ringing at the Number of Decimal Places Early Warning Centre, so I'm at

11.1

and holding.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I gave a potential rash 10.48 due to El Nino being neutral certainly by May. In other threads I also mentioned that it could nullified as early as Feb as predicted by Landscheidt....and it is now all but gone! I'll stick by my CET as this early collapse will help that...I don't think a record warm year will be had globally as I think this was based on El Nino lasting somewhat and seeing in spite of El Nino improved ice cover over the northern hemisphere this year will be interesting to see what occurs. Re the UK, South of France summer again? I think less so with more rain.

BFTP

[summer blizzard]

Here is my 2007 CET forecast.

January: 1.7C (2.5C below average, coldest since 1987)* Wrong, the January CET was 7C, 2.8C above average

February: 4.7C (0.5C above average, warmest since 2004) Wrong, the February CET was 6C, 1.8C above average

March: 9.3C (3C above average, warmest on record)* Wrong, the March CET looks to be between 6.8C and 7.3C, 0.5C to 1C above average

April: 10.6C (2.5C above average, warmest since 1865)*

May: 10.8C (0.5C below average, coolest since 1996)

June: 18.1C (4C above average, warmest since 1846)*

July: 16.4C (0.1C below average average, coolest since 2002)

August: 16.7C (0.5C above average, warmest since 2004)

September: 14.7C (1.3C above average, coolest since 2003)

October: 13.6C (3.2C above average, warmest on record)*

November: 6.7C (0.2C below average, coolest since 2005 )

December: 4.9C (0.2C below average, coolest since 2005)

My 2007 CET forecast at this stage is... 10.68C, with a 0.05C margin of error.

Summary...

5 below average months

7 above average months

2 record warm months

4 very warm months (1.5C+ anomolous values)

1 very cold month (-1.5C anomolous value)

I have updated my May and June forecast and also revised all other months.

[Stratos Ferric]

Well, as of the end of March we're more than 7C ahead of the same point last year. April and May last year, relatively, were also warmer than anything since (bar August), so it's unlikely with things as they are that the 7C figure will fall. More likely, by the end of May, we may well be around 9C plus ahead of last year. Given that August was also cool last year, a more normal outcome would leave around 10C in hand across the unaccounted 6 months of the year. More than enough to allow considerable erosion of some of last year's peaks, with plenty to spare. We only need around 2 cumulative degree months over and above last year to touch the 11C mark; it's certainly looking like a possibility at this point unless we get either a poor summer, or a cool autumn.

[Snowly does it]

Well, as of the end of March we're more than 7C ahead of the same point last year. April and May last year, relatively, were also warmer than anything since (bar August), so it's unlikely with things as they are that the 7C figure will fall. More likely, by the end of May, we may well be around 9C plus ahead of last year. Given that August was also cool last year, a more normal outcome would leave around 10C in hand across the unaccounted 6 months of the year. More than enough to allow considerable erosion of some of last year's peaks, with plenty to spare. We only need around 2 cumulative degree months over and above last year to touch the 11C mark; it's certainly looking like a possibility at this point unless we get either a poor summer, or a cool autumn.

Frightening fact of the year number 1, had we 'rolled back the years' and recorded a freezing Jan from nowhere we would STILL be 0.1 ahead of the 'same stage' for last years record breaker.

10.5 plus looks odd on unless something very strange happens (like some cold months which would be VERY strange!), the record is certainly possible from here without the need for record seasons like last year, in fact similar outturns with July 17.7, Sept 14.8 and Oct 11.1 (all very reasonable) would see the record go.

[Calrissian]

If it hits 11.95 I will start worrying about humanity surviving past 2010, so whilst I wish you luck with your estimation, I hope it doesn't come off!

Besides that tiny little bit of snow we had, its above average now all the way. April is arguably bordering on a 'warm' spring month. As for May and beyond...why would it change ? Even if its rain, it'll still be warm rain.

An 11.00+ CET is now a given. You can forget about anything less than 10.75, and I'd say a fair chance of hitting 11.25.

Are you worried yet Snowmaiden ?

--

Calrissian: suggested 11.95 in January to wake a few posters up, and you never know.

[Snowly does it]

Besides that tiny little bit of snow we had, its above average now all the way. April is arguably bordering on a 'warm' spring month. As for May and beyond...why would it change ? Even if its rain, it'll still be warm rain.

An 11.00+ CET is now a given. You can forget about anything less than 10.75, and I'd say a fair chance of hitting 11.25.

Are you worried yet Snowmaiden ?

--

Calrissian: suggested 11.95 in January to wake a few posters up, and you never know.

Starting to be so Calrissian yes, this is really quite concerning. However, lets see what the next 3 or 4 months bring and we can start pinning the tail on the particular donkey of the apocalypse.

Snowmaiden: stealing Calrissians posting style whilst the world survives to allow such mischief

[kold weather]

Yes a 11C is looking very decent possiblity, usually the 10.6C warm winter years have a cool April or May yet so far April is only adding to thwe warmth, so 11C is looking possible, esp when you remmeber it was only a fairly average winter and early Spring that save dus from a 11C year last year.

[Calrissian]

'lets see what happens over the next 3 or 4 months'.

Things is, many have been saying that sort of thing now for the last few years. We had such a warm 2003...and people said 'ahh, we'll still get a cool, even cold winter soon', but it never really came.

Another warm day today, and its only mid April. Hell, this would be a fine day for summer, and we're still 2-3 months away from that.

The trend might break, but even if its does, it'll soon flip back to the same old endlessly increasing average.

*I will not be worrying unless the CET jumps above 11.25 this year.

Calrissian: time for lunch, then Southpark 11x06 and LOST 3x16

[Snowly does it]

'lets see what happens over the next 3 or 4 months'.

Come now Calrissian, put in the full quote - I related the next 3 or 4 months to pinning the tail on the right brand of apocalyptic donkey, not as a 'holding' measure just in case something colder this way comes.

Yes we are in some straits here but given the way the year has started we need to see what straits and how tight the jacket is before proclaiming the game to be up. Important to remember we are still in need of a similarly astonishing summer and autumn and early winter as last year to break the 11 barrier even with the racing start - although Aprils final outturn will make it all the easier from here....

Not sure why the UK is taking the brunt of warming far far more than most of the world - we appear to be a full half degree ahead of the game, rather annoying.

[Calrissian]

I will add that yes, the UK is in a somewhat different situation to the usual northern hemisphere. The USA is not exactly having the best of Aprils right now is it !

I think its safe to say that maybe the natural state for the UK is for hotter and longer summers, and shorter - but maybe colder winters (if we didn't have all that mild water around us).

In any case, today's warmth is starting to annoy me. Oh well, only another 6 months of this, then back to the sub 10c days

Calrissian: don't misquote him

[summer blizzard]

Personally, i think that there will be a correction later in the year as we see a rather cool summer and late Autumn/early winter.

[sundog]

i would agree as i think the second part of the year will be cooler then the first and there will at least be some kind of balancing out