12z model discussion - it's gonna get cold...

[BARRY]

looking like i will have to get that winter coat out down here

[Mondy]

An upgrade to a very decent 06z run. All very much in a watchable timeframe.

[Matty M]

I have a fear that this Run is not for the faint hearted.... i warn against taking them too literally...

Channel low pushing in during Thursday still dry and bitter over the UK.. except for snow in Scotland

[Harsh Climate]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn841.png

correction: That low over northern scandinavia is very worrieng! I fear the rest of this run now...

As i keep saying, that is the key area in whether or not we get a sustained cold spell/classic set-up..

[Matty M]

The Low might even go too far south! And we might stay cold and dry! this run looks so special on the 500hpa charts but not much precip YET

[Nick F]

To-ing and fro-ing between the 12z and 06z, as the timeframes update suggests the jet to the SW is further South on this run, with a cut-off low in SW approaches ahead of the main system in the Atlantic undercutting the high, could be an interesting run with more twists and turns than an alpine road.

[Duane S.]

Looks much dryer and bloody cold on Wednesday..

Precip waiting on the wings for Thursday... perhaps a special Thursday.

Sure looks to be Thursday into Friday that will be the big one!

I reckon tomorrow through until then will restricted to Scotland, NE England and later on parts of SE England/East Anglia receiving small accumulations via frequent snow showers.

[Matty M]

Heavy dry snow along the south coast of England at 102hrs... very dry north of here though

[MKN]

The +96 chart looks good could do with someone posting the precip charts tho

100th post! = time for a beer

[Snowly does it]

The cold theme continues, some chance of wintry ppn for eastern coastal districts early in the week and some very low minima progged too. Where will it go????

Exciting times!

[Stuart]

Look like a upgrade to me

[SP1986]

Heavy dry snow along the south coast of England at 102hrs... very dry north of here though

Yep quite dry but cold run so far, -7C in part of western England at about 90 hours. So quite alot different than previous, with what looks like a very dry but very cold airmass. This one is going to go right down to T+12 I think.

[Matty M]

Well channel low heavy snow for southern England and London but dry here !

Maybe the second breakdown will get through!!

-8c 850hpa temps by Thursday afternoon

eat that Met Eirean mild zonality.

[Harsh Climate]

So far this run is an upgrade for southern areas and a downgrade for northern areas... :/

[Yeti]

Channel low much more intense, but perhaps tracking too far south?

[stratty]

if everything is kept being pushed south, there maybe no prcip left at all !

[Nick F]

Channel low anyone? Precipitation is found wanting though apart from S coast:

Ppn Bit further North as it heads up channel, something interesting from the East over Scotland aswell:

[PersianPaladin]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn841.png

correction: That low over northern scandinavia is very worrieng! I fear the rest of this run now...

As i keep saying, that is the key area in whether or not we get a sustained cold spell/classic set-up..

It was on the 06z aswell remember....don't worry about that, I think its just a small temporary feature.

[Matty M]

Some snow showers into eastern Ireland late Thursday as second attempt at breakdown lays offshort of Ireland.

Massive increase in depth and length of cold

[Duane S.]

MC, looks like the 12z snow god read my post a couple of hours ago as this is just an awesome, if not still marginal, chart for us on the south coast!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1021.png

[Mondy]

Precip type looks good up here, Nick ( )

[BARRY]

even cork could get some snow

[Matty M]

Friday dawns bitterly cold with gale force easterly winds in Dublin... Heavy snow showers with band of snow approaching the south coast...

This runs bonkers tbh.. this cold spell has been lengthened sooooooo much.

[BARRY]

The +96 chart looks good could do with someone posting the precip charts tho

100th post! = time for a beer

if you go to the date centre you can get them yourself

[Matty M]

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-126.png?12

Second low struggles north Widespread heavy snow across Ireland..with some blizzard conditions with winds gusting 70mph on coasts