Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

12z model discussion - it's gonna get cold...

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

 Share

Recommended Posts

johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted
Sorry I mean't to add this.

The focus appears to be on NE Scotland at the moment but I feel this will change over the next few days because I believe the LP will take a more SE,ly track and the HP will ridge further NW introducing a stronger E,ly for other regions also which would mean the snow showers risk could focus on NE England also.

see my blog which has both areas covered for that

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

People are getting over excited now. Thursday is still 4 days away.

Some people seem to think they will automatically get snow. There are going to be some Dissapointed people!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
wellington boot Enthusiast

wellington boot

Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
Posted (edited)
The ramping is getting out of control on here. I wouldnt pay much attention to the percipitation charts just yet as they are going to change alot over the coming week. But one things likely, some cold weather for us.

yes i also wouldnt look at ppn charts because they play nasty tricks on us here in the uk. When the weather is mild, and low pressure area will have bags of ppn underneath it, with plenty around the outside too. But once we have cold weather and were looking for snow, suddenly the same ppn which just rolls in over a huge area to europe, stalls at our coasts and cant get inland, and when low pressure moves over us theres just nothing there.

Funny enough the 12z almost makes Cork one of the favoured areas for snow with a series of lows skirting our South Coast throughout the week.

Wouldn't it be hilarious if I was the only member to get snow this week :clap:

no

Edited by wellington boot
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

IMO the pattern change occurred between 17-20 Jan and this is the evolution showing its hand. It is looking very close to how RJS called it in his winter LRF. I was surprised at the time from certain quarters that they wrote off their LRF and called for zoneality and mild to last for the rest of winter. Well since the 17-20 Jan that is put to bed now and the charts are looking very good. More adjustments but the cold sinking well south looks set and the foot hold is in. There will be a short less cold interlude after next weekend but be sure for a reload and even more wintry spell after. Many called for a mild Dec...most of us got that, mild Jan calls were correct but no one came close to the synoptic pattern but well done to those who could see the woods through the trees and saw a change was on. 12z is stunning, a classic non 'even larger teapot' run...indeed many recently have been :clap: Long may it continue, and I think it will

BFTP

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted
Funny enough the 12z almost makes Cork one of the favoured areas for snow with a series of lows skirting our South Coast throughout the week.

Wouldn't it be hilarious if I was the only member to get snow this week :clap:

Sorry JS can't see that mate.

There is a greater chance of Sophie Howard, Jordan, Girls Aloud asking me to marry them

Link to comment
Share on other sites
PersianPaladin Aficionado

PersianPaladin

Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
Posted (edited)

I must say, I highly reccomend John Holmes' latest blog. A good, cogent overview of the current situation. Some good stuff to be learned there too.

Edited by PersianPaladin
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MKN Community Regular

MKN

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
Posted
Funny enough the 12z almost makes Cork one of the favoured areas for snow with a series of lows skirting our South Coast throughout the week.

Wouldn't it be hilarious if I was the only member to get snow this week :clap:

I wouldnt be as nearly as confident as you are snow this coming week if i lived in cork, things will be very marginal for where you are, and rain could be the main feature this week. id wait till tuesday evening before making any judgement on where abouts anywhere in the uk gets snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
Amazing run in many ways but FI is very much still Wednesday/Thurs onwards!

Tamara

Hi Tamara,

Hope you are well. I personally find it astonishing how FI starts in only three days time, it could be the most exciting week or more for several years or a huge anti-climax. It is always the same with marginal snow events, the experts won't get to grips with it until the snow starts falling in any particular location.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted
People are getting over excited now. Thursday is still 4 days away.

Some people seem to think they will automatically get snow. There are going to be some Dissapointed people!

well said, my thoughts entirely.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MKN Community Regular

MKN

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
Posted

Anyone think the metoffice might give us one of those uk risk area pics?? seems ages since i seen the last one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
wellington boot Enthusiast

wellington boot

Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
Posted
People are getting over excited now. Thursday is still 4 days away.

Some people seem to think they will automatically get snow. There are going to be some Dissapointed people!

Nah i dont think we all assume well get snow. Were just relishing the chance to get excited about the charts, something we havent been able to do too much this winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cumulonimbus Tower Apprentice

Cumulonimbus Tower

Posted
  • Location: Hebden Bridge (561 ft ASL) A drug town with a tourist problem
  • Location: Hebden Bridge (561 ft ASL) A drug town with a tourist problem
Posted
People are getting over excited now. Thursday is still 4 days away.

Some people seem to think they will automatically get snow. There are going to be some Dissapointed people!

Yes Blizzards, i think some of the ramping is a little premature to be honest.

This one isn't in the bag yet, especially if you concider that the

GFS has been modeling the Scandi high between 5 and 12 mb's lower today than it was at the same point yesterday...

Ned

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted (edited)
Wonderful 12Z with the chance of a channel low but im not going to concentrate on that but something else which IMO could bring much larger snowfall totals!.

Anyone living in NE Scotland must be ecstatic with this run because you would see huge snowfall totals from the charts below.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1084.png

These charts would develop plenty of snow showers moving in from the N sea which would spread far inland. If I was wishing to go snow chasing Aberdeenshire would be my choice :D

Thatb is great to see for any one down the eastern side of England, at this range, that blob of blue could be anywhere in these areas, just depends whats in the north sea/how it developes at that time...(if a similar set-up developes ;) ) :D:clap:

Edited by Jed Bickerdike
Link to comment
Share on other sites
johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted
Anyone think the metoffice might give us one of those uk risk area pics?? seems ages since i seen the last one.

only usually given out for snow about 48 hours ahead, wind about 72 hours ahead so some time to go yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
grab my graupel Enthusiast

grab my graupel

Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
Posted (edited)
Sorry JS can't see that mate.

There is a greater chance of Sophie Howard, Jordan, Girls Aloud asking me to marry them

That was funny :clap:

Poor J.S. your going to upset him he's only just stopped moaning today,

You should of agreed with him. :D

Edited by grab my graupels
Link to comment
Share on other sites
johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted
I must say, I highly reccomend John Holmes' latest blog. A good, cogent overview of the current situation. Some good stuff to be learned there too.

that is very kind of you PP. I enjoy doing them and hope people enjoy reading them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MKN Community Regular

MKN

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
Posted
only usually given out for snow about 48 hours ahead, wind about 72 hours ahead so some time to go yet.

I'll look forward to that usually causes a bit of a debate when there released

Link to comment
Share on other sites
johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted
where is your blog please ? I'd like to read it but can't find it.

thanks, Mark.

ok, see someone has kindly answered that, hope you enjoy reading it. Another one later this evening.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted
well said, my thoughts entirely.

No I don't agree.

It's been a dreadful winter with nothing to look forward to if you prefer cold and im of the opinion that if you can't get excited at these charts then you shouldn't bother following the models.

These synoptics don't happen every week unfortunately so I say ramp it up!.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted
Nah i dont think we all assume well get snow. Were just relishing the chance to get excited about the charts, something we havent been able to do too much this winter.

Whenever we seem to have snow the charts look good at first and then it all just goes horribly wrong mostly!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
devon lad Newbie

devon lad

Posted
  • Location: Blackdown Hills - Devon
  • Location: Blackdown Hills - Devon
Posted
well said, my thoughts entirely.

Hi mushy & others who are having a go at excited folk. For once (and boy haven't we had to wait this Winter) there truly looks like something to get excited about this week. At least excited folk are not looking at GFS 120 plus this time. Yes, everyone won't get it but lets have some fun - things are looking pretty good this time.

Of course there is a lot of excitement - hence so many folk on this site this evening.

dl

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Buckster76 Newbie

Buckster76

Posted
Posted

John - just downloaded your blog - will enjoy very much reading it.

Its a bit of a hidden treasure :clap: - you seem to have put a LOT of effort into your blogs - so just to say thanks - its appreciated.

cheers, Mark.

that is very kind of you PP. I enjoy doing them and hope people enjoy reading them.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...