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12z model discussion - it's gonna get cold...

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Greyowl Rookie

Greyowl

Posted
  • Location: Cambridgeshire Fens. 3m ASL
  • Location: Cambridgeshire Fens. 3m ASL
Posted

I have just read your latest blog update John and would like to thank you for putting it in terms a newbie like myself can understand.

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted
John - just downloaded your blog - will enjoy very much reading it.

Its a bit of a hidden treasure :clap: - you seem to have put a LOT of effort into your blogs - so just to say thanks - its appreciated.

cheers, Mark.

cheers mate

reminds me of the old days!

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Cumulonimbus Tower Apprentice

Cumulonimbus Tower

Posted
  • Location: Hebden Bridge (561 ft ASL) A drug town with a tourist problem
  • Location: Hebden Bridge (561 ft ASL) A drug town with a tourist problem
Posted
the ECM is starting to come out now

Yup, first impression is that it's modeling greater heights to the north - could be a good sign :clap:

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robert Apprentice

robert

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis, Garenin, Outer Hebrides
  • Location: Isle of Lewis, Garenin, Outer Hebrides
Posted
You haven't sent me a PM with the winning Lotto numbers :D

Not sure if they would give me those to be honest :clap:

Never actually tried it! ;)

QUOTE(robert @ 4 Feb 2007, 05:54 PM)

The charts are great so far and it is all coming together nicely.

Many more upgrades on the way soon

Enjoy the debating of models *passes cookies and hot chocolate around*

Robert

Suprised youve got any cookies and hot chocolate left, the way you keep passing it round to 200+ net-weather members and visitors.

I had extra stock delivered Friday...enough to last a few weeks! :D

Robert

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MKN Community Regular

MKN

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
Posted
I have just read your latest blog update John and would like to thank you for putting it in terms a newbie like myself can understand.

What he said, this week especially they'l be very useful, look forward to see if you do one for after tonights 18z :clap:

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grab my graupel Enthusiast

grab my graupel

Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
Posted
Wonderful 12Z with the chance of a channel low but im not going to concentrate on that but something else which IMO could bring much larger snowfall totals!.

Anyone living in NE Scotland must be ecstatic with this run because you would see huge snowfall totals from the charts below.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1084.png

These charts would develop plenty of snow showers moving in from the N sea which would spread far inland. If I was wishing to go snow chasing Aberdeenshire would be my choice :clap:

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rc28 Newbie

rc28

Posted
  • Location: County Meath, Ireland
  • Location: County Meath, Ireland
Posted

Just read your blog john, it's excellent and great for making things easier to understand for people like me with very limited knowledge of model watching.

Thanyou :clap:

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yamkin Experienced

yamkin

Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
Posted
The charts are great so far and it is all coming together nicely.

Many more upgrades on the way soon :D:D;)

Enjoy the debating of models *passes cookies and hot chocolate around* ;)

Robert

The upgrades will be very interesting with even more colder conditions. :clap:

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Michael Winston Apprentice

Michael Winston

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham U.K.
  • Location: Birmingham U.K.
Posted
No I don't agree.

It's been a dreadful winter with nothing to look forward to if you prefer cold and im of the opinion that if you can't get excited at these charts then you shouldn't bother following the models.

These synoptics don't happen every week unfortunately so I say ramp it up!.

Been ill; poor old me! Just started reading the posts. TEITS, that's the most sensible one I've read today :clap: ! Well said!! Let's enjoy the ride!!!

Regards,

Mike

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
No I don't agree.

It's been a dreadful winter with nothing to look forward to if you prefer cold and im of the opinion that if you can't get excited at these charts then you shouldn't bother following the models.

These synoptics don't happen every week unfortunately so I say ramp it up!.

I totally agree with you Dave. Asking people not to get a little excited about the messy but very interesting synoptics is a bit like shaking a bottle of champagne and then opening it and not expecting to get wet! :clap:

My one hope is that all this model drama does end up with some people seeing some snow and then it would have been worth it! Its true we don't often see these types of synoptics in the models and given the dire winter so far its totally understandable that people are ramping. This is a glum free zone at the moment, any glum misery posts should be deleted! :D

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wellington boot Enthusiast

wellington boot

Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
Posted
Whenever we seem to have snow the charts look good at first and then it all just goes horribly wrong mostly!

thats the way it often happens, but not always. Its gotta come good sometime. And right now the setup looks better for that than most times when people get overexcited. And i should add again, everyone is aware of the way things often turn out, and the way the models can downgrade, but nonetheless we enjoy the excitement of good models. All winter things have been pretty dire. Were just enjoying the excitment of model watching for once

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Stephen W Explorer

Stephen W

Posted
  • Location: North Norfolk
  • Location: North Norfolk
Posted
that is very kind of you PP. I enjoy doing them and hope people enjoy reading them.

John - thanks for continuing with the blog - I enjoy reading the detail behind the charts and your assessment of the risks and possible rewards!

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Ahh the good old ramp.. I can see this getting messy as the week goes on.

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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted (edited)
People arent going to be inpressed by tonights ECM....

Good job I think it VERY poor-

Temps current here in Iceland -4C-

Looking forwards to an exciting week......

S

At 96h it looks far too progressive to me, wouldnt call it very poor just yet.. :)

Edited by Jed Bickerdike
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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted
Been ill; poor old me! Just started reading the posts. TEITS, that's the most sensible one I've read today :) ! Well said!! Let's enjoy the ride!!!

Regards,

Mike

All im trying to say is some people are going to be dissapointed especaially Northern Ireland i think.

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Yeti Apprentice

Yeti

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
Posted
The charts are great so far and it is all coming together nicely.

Many more upgrades on the way soon :):):cold:

Enjoy the debating of models *passes cookies and hot chocolate around* :D

Robert

So we might be in for a major snow event around the tenth as predicted?

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PersianPaladin Aficionado

PersianPaladin

Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
Posted (edited)
People arent going to be inpressed by tonights ECM....

Good job I think it VERY poor-

Temps current here in Iceland -4C-

Looking forwards to an exciting week......

S

I worry, that if it continues like this then our mid-term prospects are going to get screwed over in its favour.

Edited by PersianPaladin
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