12z model discussion - it's gonna get cold...

[Duane S.]

I agree with the comments reference not getting too carried away down South. It is going to be marginal for us southerners especially those like me at 0m ASL!

I think the LP was progged too low due to the over-progessive nature of the 12z. My guess is that the 18z will have it back further north again. Nice to be proved wrong though

[mcweather]

Well whilst that ecm continues to churn out these operational runs we cant ignore it as much as at present I'd like to nuke it! Theres alot of uncertainty regarding the upstream pattern as noted by NOAA in their discussions relating to shortwave features in relation to the PV over canada, perhaps we might see a blended solution come the time between the 3 major models.

Here first is the NOAA discussions

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

Check out paragraph 3.

However the ecm 00hrs run was a mild outlier for wed into thursday the crucial time in the models.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

Everything is very volatile in the models and to be honest I wouldnt look past 72hrs.

Thanks for those links Nick. Interesting times indeed. The NOAA discussions could certainly have some bearing on just how the lows to our west start to move later in the week. I can,t help thinking that we may yet see the second low slide southeastwards rather than run east.

[karyo]

The 12z ECM is even worse than the 00z output. It takes the jet so much further north than the whole of south europe has high pressure. It couldn't have been more different than the UKMO and GFS.

Karyo

[Stuart]

Look like the ECM is on his own

Edited February 4, 2007 by Stuart H

[shuggee]

with regards tonights ecm, it looks much the same as the last one. Very poor as steve says, but at the same time, we should take heart from the fact that:

1 ecm has been poor recently, and missed last cold spell and also this one which we will have (whether snowy or not)

2 ecm is on its own right now

3 even the ecm could become favourable for cold and snow with fairly minor adjustments to the charts. Its not that far away in terms of synoptics even if it is in terms of the weather we end up with. slightly stronger high. Slightly less aggressive atlantic systems. slightly more southerly tracking atlantic systems

Bit of selective recollection there WB!

The ECM progged the currently northerly and the next couple of days well before and much more accurately than the GFS - it was the GFS that fell in line with ECM middle of last week. Now the ECM has gone off on its own once again - but as I posted the other day; the model that spots a trend isn't usually the one that sees it accurately through to its conclusion.

[wellington boot]

Bit of selective recollection there WB!

The ECM progged the currently northerly and the next couple of days well before and much more accurately than the GFS - it was the GFS that fell in line with ECM middle of last week. Now the ECM has gone off on its own once again - but as I posted the other day; the model that spots a trend isn't usually the one that sees it accurately through to its conclusion.

No sorry i ahve to strongly disagree with you there. The ecm all last week had the atlantic raging straight in, while it was the gfs and the ukmo which began to suggest repeatedly that there would be something of a northerly first. Every single run though, we were all here discussing the ecm because it kept coming out showing very little northerly blockign and no real northerly, and no real cold air, and an atlantic coming in within a couple of days. You must have your memories mixed up

[shuggee]

No sorry i ahve to strongly disagree with you there. The ecm all last week had the atlantic raging straight in, while it was the gfs and the ukmo which began to suggest repeatedly that there would be something of a northerly first. Every single run though, we were all here discussing the ecm because it kept coming out showing very little northerly blockign and no real northerly, and no real cold air, and an atlantic coming in within a couple of days. You must have your memories mixed up

Do you know, I think you're right. It was the GFS that kept progging an extension to the colder northerlies/ne'lys and the ECM that was reluctant to do the same. Apologies Mr Wellie

[Snow Queen one]

Looking at the charts i am not overly optimistic for snow down our way. I am sure it will be cold though.

[wellington boot]

Do you know, I think you're right. It was the GFS that kept progging an extension to the colder northerlies/ne'lys and the ECM that was reluctant to do the same. Apologies Mr Wellie

No worries! I hope I am right, or my memory must be failing me prematurely

On a different note, heres the link to the latest AO forecasts, which look pretty good to me, because although there's a bit of a scatter, the trend has definately moved those red lines downwards - a few days ago the peak of the upward surge was well above neutral, while the renewed negative phase was uncertain. But its all looking more negative now.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CW...ex/ao.sprd2.gif

[Yeti]

Interesting that's the first time this winter that the beeb have forecast this:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?id=2105

Interesting to see whether old Everton mentions it in his no doubt anticipated and reliable forecast update tomorrow

I don't know what to make of the ECM. On the one hand, I think it's vital to have its support, and it often backs down with the GFS following shortly after. However, with the support of the UKMO I feel less like this - and remember that it has performed very poorly over the past week.

Edited February 4, 2007 by Yeti

[Snowyowl9]

Next Saturday - a reliable timeframe, are u sure ???

I think reliable timeframe only goes this far at the moment though.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn661.png

No I don't agree.

It's been a dreadful winter with nothing to look forward to if you prefer cold and im of the opinion that if you can't get excited at these charts then you shouldn't bother following the models.

These synoptics don't happen every week unfortunately so I say ramp it up!.

Couldn`t agree more!

[Cloud 10]

Well it seems the ecm has some sort of support from a couple of the other models,albeit the "cannon fodder"ones.

ecm96

nogaps96

jma96

Hopefully the gfs can trample them into the ground,as thats all they deserve.

gfs96

Edited February 4, 2007 by Cloud 10

[shuggee]

Remember the easies way to compare the models is here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=modelcomp;sess=

Nice illustration of the way in which both the GFS and GEFS are progging height rises to the norhtheast, yet the ECM is having none of it...

[Cloud 10]

Remember the easies way to compare the models is here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=modelcomp;sess=

Nice illustration of the way in which both the GFS and GEFS are progging height rises to the norhtheast, yet the ECM is having none of it...

I keep forgetting about that model comparison page,certainly beats posting all the charts like i just did!

[Tigers]

Ignore those 5-day forecasts. They seem to be mostly wrong more than 48 hours out.

What time the ECM ens out?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Do you know, I think you're right. It was the GFS that kept progging an extension to the colder northerlies/ne'lys and the ECM that was reluctant to do the same. Apologies Mr Wellie

It was indeed Shugs- the ECM really underdid the upcoming northerly; I think UKMO has probably done best, followed by GFS (although we'll see the true verdict in a few days' time on my model comparisons thread). The ECM has consistently overdone the northern arm of the jet over the past couple of weeks, for whatever reasons; it's rather odd as if anything ECM was the most reliable model during the first half of January.

There is certainly an interesting divergence- once again there's going to be some low marks among some of the models in the model comparisons thread, as Ian Brown said, here's hoping that it's going to be the ECM this time around. Although the ECM's outcome should not be ruled out, I don't have as much faith in the ECM in the current synoptic mess.

[SMU]

Lets face it we all know the ECM is wrong by a country mile-

look for the GFS & UKMO raw to varify- Although I still think a SW jog in the PPN may be in evident come tomorrow....

S

[stratty]

FI is at T72 at the mo.

Nothing is definite yet!

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/pr.../gefs/gefs.html

Edited February 4, 2007 by stratty

[Steady Easterly]

I think we need to see the ECM ensembles but one or two of the big boys are going to be very wrong at a relatively short timescale. Let's hope it is the ECM !

As i alluded to earlier, stick a block to our East, the models struggle.

[PB22]

Another interesting set of model runs, and still a lot of uncertainty by T+72. I was hoping that the 12Z ECM would come more into line with GFS and UKMO this evening, but its not to be. This is beginning to concern me now to be honest. We will have to wait for the ECM ensembles to see where it stands. In the shorter term though, the cold spell has been upgraded, with the first half of the week looking cold, with some wintry showers near northern and eastern coasts and sharp overnight frosts.

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Blimey - no post for 13 minutes. What is this, model fatigue ????

[AlexL]

Another interesting set of model runs, and still a lot of uncertainty by T+72. I was hoping that the 12Z ECM would come more into line with GFS and UKMO this evening, but its not to be. This is beginning to concern me now to be honest. We will have to wait for the ECM ensembles to see where it stands. In the shorter term though, the cold spell has been upgraded, with the first half of the week looking cold, with some wintry showers near northern and eastern coasts and sharp overnight frosts.

If I remember rightly, the ECM 00z operational was a big mild outlier. I think it's quite likely that 12z operational will be following suit, since it likes mimicking the 00z so much.

Cue tumbleweed.

Edited February 4, 2007 by AlexL

[PB22]

--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Paul B @ 4 Feb 2007, 08:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->Another interesting set of model runs, and still a lot of uncertainty by T+72. I was hoping that the 12Z ECM would come more into line with GFS and UKMO this evening, but its not to be. This is beginning to concern me now to be honest. We will have to wait for the ECM ensembles to see where it stands. In the shorter term though, the cold spell has been upgraded, with the first half of the week looking cold, with some wintry showers near northern and eastern coasts and sharp overnight frosts.

If I remember rightly, the ECM 00z operational was a big mild outlier. I think it's quite likely that 12z operational will be following suit, since it likes mimicking the 00z so much.

Yes, hopefully it is another mild outlier...none the less I would still have liked to have seen the ECM operational more in line with GFS and UKMO.

[Matt Jones]

Looks like the meto are going for a short event, snow briefly, to rain at the end of the week, maybe the far north holding onto something wintry by the weekend but milder further south.

I am not saying this is how it's going to turn out, but you'd have to say it's most likely, that's why the've gone for it.

Think the GFS has overdone the length of this cold snap, and it will be somewhere between the ecm and the UKMO.

[nick sussex]

Going back to the rule or often trend when one model is out of kilter with the others, what has happened to the ecm isnt really a sudden switch but its always over the last few days been very reluctant to jump on board. If the ecm was great and then suddenly imploded I would be more worried as we could say that its picked up on a new signal , however in this instance its always been the least wintry of all the major models. This simply seems to me that its modelling the push east of the PV differently and being too progressive, its also very reluctant to build heights over scandi aswell. Somehow I just cant see a complete capitulation by the ukmo and gfs but at worst a blended solution where the models meet halfway.

Also not to gripe too much but I'm sure theres a correlation with lack of posts in here and the removal of the member names at the bottom of the page, is there no way of redirecting some of the resources to the main areas where most people are rather than just losing the members at the bottom of the page.

I'm afraid once you get used to the normal lay out it seems distinctly different and not so good with out these, surely most people can put up with the site being a little slower so we can have the normal layout. So if any of the mods are viewing could you take this on board please and perhaps speak to Paul.

Edited February 4, 2007 by nick sussex