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12z model discussion - snow or sleety rain?

Paul

By Paul
in Winter Weather Discussion

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
    • Location: Aviemore
    Posted

    Please continue discussion on the latest model runs here - please stay on topic. General cold spell discussion is available in this thread:

    http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=36157

    In depth/techie model discussion is here:

    http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=34546

    The latest GFS models can be seen here:

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

    And the ensembles here:

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

    Plus all the other major models and other features in the datacentre (free):

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=home

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    Iceberg Seasoned

    Iceberg

    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
    • Location: Dorset
    Posted

    Not really 12Z, but I am a bit slow atm.

    Meto alot less progressive than GFS even at day 3.

    Meto equals much more of a snow event, so still plenty of time for the 12Z GFS to turn round.

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    pooksly Newbie

    pooksly

    Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells, Kent/Sussex border
    • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells, Kent/Sussex border
    Posted

    I would like to say that this method of starting a new thread for each model output is great.

    It's far easier to keep track of the latest without spending hours looking through the posts.

    Just to keep on topic, Please please let the 12z be the godsend for the day!

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    grab my graupel Enthusiast

    grab my graupel

    Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
    • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
    Posted
    What do you mean?

    Its appeared from the 6z gfs run...

    Yeah I know ignore that. I tried to delete that.

    I'm having serious problems with my computer lagging today :rolleyes:

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    snowdrifter Explorer

    snowdrifter

    Posted
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snowy. Summer: Warm/gentle breeze. Anytime: thunderstorms/gales.
    • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
    Posted

    Temps so far about a degree HIGHER than the 06z. Not looking great atm.

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    Upgrade Rookie

    Upgrade

    Posted
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria
    • Location: Melbourne, Victoria
    Posted

    Fingers crossed.

    lots of chopping and changing happening with the models. the background trend seems to be towards cooler weather .

    If the low goes through the channel and pressure builds to the east, could the low / future lows get dragged into the similar posittion and with cold air nearby, cause a "repeat" scenario - i'm guessing this is where the excitement lies?

    So - even if theres a marginality to this thursday "event", we could perhaps see a further cooling and more certain likelyhood of frontal snowfall , say into next week - as long as the HP's to our North & North East East and jet forcing LP's to the south of us south play ball, there could be more channel lows and more "battle royales"

    guess i'm talking drivel but that's my little theory for today lol

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    PB22 Enthusiast

    PB22

    Posted
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
    • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
    Posted

    Having had a quick glance through the charts I see GFS has retreated, whilst ECM has come more into line with what GFS and UKMO were showing last night. Looking at the GFS ensembles it looks like GFS has settled on a fairly quick return to milder conditions. Tonight's 12Z runs will help decide where we are heading I feel, and if I had to put my head on the line, I would say UKMO and ECM will retreat from their runs this morning and a milder weekend will be shown by the models.

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    Matty M Community Regular

    Matty M

    Posted
  • Location: Dublin
    • Location: Dublin
    Posted

    To be honest this runs looking a corker for me!

    Heavy snow moves up from south... im just on the northern side so SNOW here and lots... at 1am Thursday :rolleyes::D:D

    http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-60.png?12

    A chart for those snow starved Dubliners... now lets hope it aint transitional

    But whatever the case.. I'll just be happy to see falling snow :D

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    geri2k Rookie

    geri2k

    Posted
  • Location: North West Londonish
    • Location: North West Londonish
    Posted
    lol. going from 'the best opportunity for snow in years' a few days ago, to warmish and crappy rain. and no it wont 'get better'. this is the last time i ever bother looking at any vaguely in-depth 'weather guess' as really no one has a clue about the weather until a day or two before. sure they can say warm or cold or rain, but thats it, and they usually fail in that. :rolleyes::D :D :D :D :D :D :D

    It ain't over till the fat lady sings! :D And by god she better start singing!

    Geri

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    Matty M Community Regular

    Matty M

    Posted
  • Location: Dublin
    • Location: Dublin
    Posted

    We can pretty much sum up the GFS 12z already..

    Its better than the 6z but still very different than the UKM..

    Maybe the models are coming to some sort of midpoint??

    I don't know but its still fingers crossed

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    The Eagle Seasoned

    The Eagle

    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
    • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
    Posted

    No need to get too excited...This is not bad for the UK either. Small upgrade I would say in the short term. The mild air still nags the south coast of England though. I consider 60hrs FI so not looking beyond that. :rolleyes:

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    James M Community Regular

    James M

    Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
    • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
    Posted

    Lower temps for midnight Thursday.

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    stratty Aficionado

    stratty

    Posted
  • Location: Stunning Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
    • Location: Stunning Shropshire
    Posted
    To be honest this runs looking a corker for me!

    Heavy snow moves up from south... im just on the northern side so SNOW here and lots... at 1am Thursday :rolleyes::D:D

    http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-60.png?12

    A chart for those snow starved Dubliners... now lets hope it aint transitional

    But whatever the case.. I'll just be happy to see falling snow :D

    that is a very fine line!

    Don't get too excited yet old boy!!!

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    PB22 Enthusiast

    PB22

    Posted
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
    • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
    Posted

    GFS is now very relunctant to build pressure over Scandinavia, which is why it has become more progressive over the last couple of runs. No sign of pressure building over Scandinavia on the 12Z at T+60, so don't expect any major changes from the 12Z GFS. All eyes will be on UKMO and ECM later.

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    snowdrifter Explorer

    snowdrifter

    Posted
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snowy. Summer: Warm/gentle breeze. Anytime: thunderstorms/gales.
    • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
    Posted

    Temps just don't look good for NW England even for anything transiational (maybe I'm just thinking about my area) Not the Feb '96 this looked like a couple of days ago. Aah well...

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    grab my graupel Enthusiast

    grab my graupel

    Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
    • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
    Posted
    To be honest this runs looking a corker for me!

    Heavy snow moves up from south... im just on the northern side so SNOW here and lots... at 1am Thursday :rolleyes::D:D

    http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-60.png?12

    A chart for those snow starved Dubliners... now lets hope it aint transitional

    But whatever the case.. I'll just be happy to see falling snow :D

    Yep it does to me Matty precipitation looks further south to me

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    Matty M Community Regular

    Matty M

    Posted
  • Location: Dublin
    • Location: Dublin
    Posted

    Sure is Stratty extremely fine! I won't be getting too excited dont worry!

    But it is an improvement from the 6z which is a good sign.. maybe the GFS is edging towards the UKM

    The ultimate scenario for me would be a kinda midpoint between the 12z and UKM.. precip just me and then moving back south..

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    Thundery wintry showers Accomplished

    Thundery wintry showers

    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
    • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
    Posted

    A slight upgrade I think, with the lows taking a more southerly track; more progressive than UKMO and ECM (and yesterday's GFS) but less so than the 06Z.

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    James M Community Regular

    James M

    Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
    • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
    Posted

    hehe looking good for me, still under -5 850's (well only just) and heavy PPN at +72

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    snowdrifter Explorer

    snowdrifter

    Posted
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snowy. Summer: Warm/gentle breeze. Anytime: thunderstorms/gales.
    • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
    Posted
    Temps just don't look good for NW England even for anything transiational (maybe I'm just thinking about my area) Not the Feb '96 this looked like a couple of days ago. Aah well...

    Take that back - this is better than the 06z but looks like a snow to rain affair. Just hope not too quickly.

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