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12z model discussion - snow or sleety rain?

Paul

By Paul
in Summer Weather Discussion

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
Posted

Please continue discussion on the latest model runs here - please stay on topic. General cold spell discussion is available in this thread:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=36157

In depth/techie model discussion is here:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=34546

The latest GFS models can be seen here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

And the ensembles here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

Plus all the other major models and other features in the datacentre (free):

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=home

  • Replies 307
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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Not really 12Z, but I am a bit slow atm.

Meto alot less progressive than GFS even at day 3.

Meto equals much more of a snow event, so still plenty of time for the 12Z GFS to turn round.

pooksly Newbie

pooksly

Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells, Kent/Sussex border
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells, Kent/Sussex border
Posted

I would like to say that this method of starting a new thread for each model output is great.

It's far easier to keep track of the latest without spending hours looking through the posts.

Just to keep on topic, Please please let the 12z be the godsend for the day!

wellington boot Aficionado

wellington boot

Posted
  • Location: 10 mins SE of Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: 10 mins SE of Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
Posted
sorry

What do you mean?

Its appeared from the 6z gfs run...

grab my graupel Enthusiast

grab my graupel

Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
Posted
What do you mean?

Its appeared from the 6z gfs run...

Yeah I know ignore that. I tried to delete that.

I'm having serious problems with my computer lagging today :rolleyes:

Matty M Community Regular

Matty M

Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
Posted

Better secondary low more seperate at +36hrs LP in Atlantic staying slightly further west..

Snow for Cork :rolleyes:

snowdrifter Explorer

snowdrifter

Posted
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snowy. Summer: Warm/gentle breeze. Anytime: thunderstorms/gales.
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
Posted

Temps so far about a degree HIGHER than the 06z. Not looking great atm.

Matty M Community Regular

Matty M

Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
Posted

No does not allow the secondary LP to seperate from Main LP... thus the the flow does not buckle back eastwards.

Upgrade Rookie

Upgrade

Posted
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria
Posted

Fingers crossed.

lots of chopping and changing happening with the models. the background trend seems to be towards cooler weather .

If the low goes through the channel and pressure builds to the east, could the low / future lows get dragged into the similar posittion and with cold air nearby, cause a "repeat" scenario - i'm guessing this is where the excitement lies?

So - even if theres a marginality to this thursday "event", we could perhaps see a further cooling and more certain likelyhood of frontal snowfall , say into next week - as long as the HP's to our North & North East East and jet forcing LP's to the south of us south play ball, there could be more channel lows and more "battle royales"

guess i'm talking drivel but that's my little theory for today lol

Matty M Community Regular

Matty M

Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
Posted

Nonetheless widespread and heavy snow moving into southern Ireland early Wednesday...

Probably just transitional though :rolleyes:

PB22 Enthusiast

PB22

Posted
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
Posted

Having had a quick glance through the charts I see GFS has retreated, whilst ECM has come more into line with what GFS and UKMO were showing last night. Looking at the GFS ensembles it looks like GFS has settled on a fairly quick return to milder conditions. Tonight's 12Z runs will help decide where we are heading I feel, and if I had to put my head on the line, I would say UKMO and ECM will retreat from their runs this morning and a milder weekend will be shown by the models.

Matty M Community Regular

Matty M

Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
Posted

To be honest this runs looking a corker for me!

Heavy snow moves up from south... im just on the northern side so SNOW here and lots... at 1am Thursday :rolleyes::D:D

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-60.png?12

A chart for those snow starved Dubliners... now lets hope it aint transitional

But whatever the case.. I'll just be happy to see falling snow :D

geri2k Rookie

geri2k

Posted
  • Location: North West Londonish
  • Location: North West Londonish
Posted
lol. going from 'the best opportunity for snow in years' a few days ago, to warmish and crappy rain. and no it wont 'get better'. this is the last time i ever bother looking at any vaguely in-depth 'weather guess' as really no one has a clue about the weather until a day or two before. sure they can say warm or cold or rain, but thats it, and they usually fail in that. :rolleyes::D :D :D :D :D :D :D

It ain't over till the fat lady sings! :D And by god she better start singing!

Geri

Matty M Community Regular

Matty M

Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
Posted

We can pretty much sum up the GFS 12z already..

Its better than the 6z but still very different than the UKM..

Maybe the models are coming to some sort of midpoint??

I don't know but its still fingers crossed

The Eagle Seasoned

The Eagle

Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
Posted

No need to get too excited...This is not bad for the UK either. Small upgrade I would say in the short term. The mild air still nags the south coast of England though. I consider 60hrs FI so not looking beyond that. :rolleyes:

James M Rising Star

James M

Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
Posted

Lower temps for midnight Thursday.

stratty Aficionado

stratty

Posted
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Exciting weather!
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
Posted
To be honest this runs looking a corker for me!

Heavy snow moves up from south... im just on the northern side so SNOW here and lots... at 1am Thursday :rolleyes::D:D

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-60.png?12

A chart for those snow starved Dubliners... now lets hope it aint transitional

But whatever the case.. I'll just be happy to see falling snow :D

that is a very fine line!

Don't get too excited yet old boy!!!

PB22 Enthusiast

PB22

Posted
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
Posted

GFS is now very relunctant to build pressure over Scandinavia, which is why it has become more progressive over the last couple of runs. No sign of pressure building over Scandinavia on the 12Z at T+60, so don't expect any major changes from the 12Z GFS. All eyes will be on UKMO and ECM later.

snowdrifter Explorer

snowdrifter

Posted
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snowy. Summer: Warm/gentle breeze. Anytime: thunderstorms/gales.
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
Posted

Temps just don't look good for NW England even for anything transiational (maybe I'm just thinking about my area) Not the Feb '96 this looked like a couple of days ago. Aah well...

grab my graupel Enthusiast

grab my graupel

Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
Posted
To be honest this runs looking a corker for me!

Heavy snow moves up from south... im just on the northern side so SNOW here and lots... at 1am Thursday :rolleyes::D:D

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-60.png?12

A chart for those snow starved Dubliners... now lets hope it aint transitional

But whatever the case.. I'll just be happy to see falling snow :D

Yep it does to me Matty precipitation looks further south to me

Matty M Community Regular

Matty M

Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
Posted

Sure is Stratty extremely fine! I won't be getting too excited dont worry!

But it is an improvement from the 6z which is a good sign.. maybe the GFS is edging towards the UKM

The ultimate scenario for me would be a kinda midpoint between the 12z and UKM.. precip just me and then moving back south..

Thundery wintry showers Accomplished

Thundery wintry showers

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Posted

A slight upgrade I think, with the lows taking a more southerly track; more progressive than UKMO and ECM (and yesterday's GFS) but less so than the 06Z.

James M Rising Star

James M

Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
Posted

hehe looking good for me, still under -5 850's (well only just) and heavy PPN at +72

snowdrifter Explorer

snowdrifter

Posted
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snowy. Summer: Warm/gentle breeze. Anytime: thunderstorms/gales.
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
Posted
Temps just don't look good for NW England even for anything transiational (maybe I'm just thinking about my area) Not the Feb '96 this looked like a couple of days ago. Aah well...

Take that back - this is better than the 06z but looks like a snow to rain affair. Just hope not too quickly.

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