18z model discussion - models pah, just use the 5 min radar!

[wellington boot]

Let me explain the two fax charts that have been released in the last 30 mins are the +96 & +120 you can view the other fax charts by clicking on the link below.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...;type=fax;sess=

The fax is all over the place. Some of them are sans serif, some of them have serifs. Both 72 and 84 refer to 12 oclock on thursday, just as both 96 and 108 refer to friday. I think it is 84 and 108 which are missing.

[PersianPaladin]

Our area does not look too good - one hope would be if this was to pull off..as uncertain as it is

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

Tamara

That chart, although pure fantasy.....is the best hope for most of us seeing the white stuff.

I like it very much.

[yamkin]

That chart, although pure fantasy.....is the best hope for most of us seeing the white stuff.

I like it very much.

This chart http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif is very interesting indeed. This is something which is being monitored very closely. This chart falls precisely with Robert's prediction which is very canny!!

Goodnight all.

Edited February 6, 2007 by yamkin

[dvdfjojo]

Oh lordy - that looks like some serious snow for Staffordshire, the likes of which I haven't seen since I was a teenager 20 years ago. Wonder if it will come off. Temps for the Midlands towards the end of the week look crazy too. Wow, am I dreaming, will I wake up to the similar charts in the morning? Hope so!!!!

[wellington boot]

i want to get netweather extra on a short subscription, just to see us through to the end of winter, because right now my finances dont support a full 70 quid subscription. What should i get? radar only comes as a 12 month package so im wondering whether the one month netweather extra lite package, costing 6.49 has radar. And what else it has?

This chart http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif is very interesting indeed. This is something which is being monitored very closely. This chart falls precisely with Robert's prediction which is very canny!!

Goodnight all.

do you mean very uncanny

[Snow Queen one]

Hi Angela

i think you are right to look out of the window as the most reliable guide for the days ahead!

As of now it is true to say that if you were to try and trust the models then overall the Midlands and some parts of the north do look very well placed to see quite a lot of snow later this week.

Our area does not look too good - one hope would be if this was to pull off..as uncertain as it is

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

We must remember that the situation is very finely balanced and anything can still happen - and also I must say I've got my eye a bit further down the line and can see the colder continental air pulling west and finally winning out more generally ove the country.

..and with a proper easterly in place then it might be our turn !

Tamara

Hi Tamara

Yes that chart does look good and to be honest all i want is a true good easterly for us just once to be taken back to my childhood or perhaps 86' when we were cut off from the town.

Anyway got to go to bed as have children to get up in the morning night all and happy model watching.

[wellington boot]

Check out the satellite image. It's a sobering experience, like the calm before the storm. You can see the enormous mass of ppn and cloud out in the atlantic, ready and waiting for us to call it in . That's where it's coming from. where the answers lie...

http://www.netweather.tv/pages/charts/noaa...02052146-no.jpg

for subscribing to netweather extra (i think i will subscribe to extra lite), it asks for a username. Do i choose whatever i want?

[TEITS]

I have to admit to being slightly bemused that the latest fad model is the UKMO fax. In more sensible periods I haven't noticed people giving them so much credence. They have a reputation for inaccuracy. Remember that consistency isn't the same as accuracy. You can be consistently wrong.

I have only just noticed you make this comment so I simply must address this.

How on earth can you dismiss the fax charts. You know very well that these are based not only on the UKMO,ECM ensembles but probably other data also and not to mention are done by a Pro forecaster.

So what do you suggest we do use the GFS and rely on our own interpretations of this!!.

Sorry Richard but you are beginning to sound as though you are desperate in your posts and dare I say it straw clutching which I find ironic. Whenever a cold spell is predicted to happen you instantly dismiss the chances of it happening. Then what happens when the models continue the theme in the reliable timeframe you focus on saying how marginal it looks!!. Now because the trend is promising and even the pro forecasters are predicting this you come out with how the fax charts have a reputation of being inaccurate.

Another way of disproving this is the BBC base there forecasts on the Fax charts. Now how often honestly do you find the BBC to be wrong. We could well wake up tomorrow to find the models & Fax charts have changed but at the moment the best charts to use especially in these times of disagreement are the fax charts.

I only wish the current models were as predictable as your posts whenever a cold spell is looming

[wellington boot]

I agree with everything you say teits, except for the bit about the bbc. To be honest, the bbc is wrong all the time, but it always seems as if theyve just thrown all the symbols up in the air and seen where they land on the UK (ok maybe not that bad). To be honest though, its often hard to tell whihc model the bbc is forecasting from.

By the way, i am as of now a member of net weather extra. have been having fun tinkering with the radar.

Edited February 6, 2007 by pottyprof
Quote removed as it is the post above yours.. :)

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Sorry am I looking at the same charts? It's not cold enough.

Unless there is a dramatic last minute change this is an incredibly easy call to say there won't be lying snow at sea level south of The Wash, probably not further north either.

For the majority there will be half an hour of wet snow and then it will turn to rain.

This is a more marginal event than the one a week or so ago but since we haven't had proper cold spell for over a decade the wild reaction to -1C at 5000 feet is understandable.

Edited February 6, 2007 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[mackerel sky]

I am in complete agreement with TETIS.

In the short term, I up to say about +60 hours I rely on the FAX charts to flesh out the details. I couldn't position a trough off the back of just looking at the GFS. You could say they were likely, but you couldn't place them and annotate them. I'm sure some people will claim they can, in which case I suggest they make up their own version of the FAX charts, annotating every front, DAM lines etc on the back of the GFS, ECM or whatever and give us a demo.

The problem sometimes with the BBC forecasts is not so much the FAX charts and using the information from the MetOffice, it just boils down to pure slackness sometimes.

Edited February 6, 2007 by mackerel sky

[shrike]

http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/2794/ra...08120518al0.gif

Midlands and Northern Britain could get heavy snow! Thats after 2 runs with the same scenario!

Edited February 6, 2007 by shrike

[PersianPaladin]

http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/2794/ra...08120518al0.gif

Midlands and Northern Britain could get heavy snow! Thats after 2 runs with the same scenario!

Whereas North Yorkshire and north-east england miss out....apart from the lighter patchier stuff.

[cj114]

Sky, at 1am reckon that the south will have copious amounts of snow on Thursday!!!!! I'll have a pint of whatever they are drinking this morning!

You never know, all to play for now.

[PersianPaladin]

Sky, at 1am reckon that the south will have copious amounts of snow on Thursday!!!!! I'll have a pint of whatever they are drinking this morning!

You never know, all to play for now.

Looks marginal to me mate...with upper 0C isotherm too high and 850's below -5C for the midlands southwards.

Edited February 6, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[mackerel sky]

Looks marginal to me mate...with upper 0C isotherm too high and 850's below -5C for the midlands southwards.

Depends really doesn't it.

If the 850s are a -5C and the gradient is such that the temperatures are around about freezing at the surface, its always possible.

Loads of times its snowed when the 850s have been marginal in the past, provided you can maintain the temperature profile. Should be plenty of stagnent cold air lurking in the bottom 200 or so metres near the surface, might just be enough - and generally inland this will be advected in for a while at least on a SEly.

Edited February 6, 2007 by mackerel sky

[cj114]

It was probably just Francis, he is so languid these days...............................instructed the weather girl to waft about, spreading snow in her wake.

However, 20yrs ago, when he was a local forcaster for the Thames region, he did forcast snow one evening, when it had been raining hard for hours! woke up the following morning to 6" of snow!!

He was the only one who stuck his neck out that evening.

Persian, I'm a girl, Cj is my Car!!

[xerxes]

Well the GFS 0z is now rolling. God knows what rollercoaster this'll take us on

[mackerel sky]

Well the GFS 0z is now rolling. God knows what rollercoaster this'll take us on

Hopefully as encouraging as the FAX outputs...

[PersianPaladin]

Well the GFS 0z is now rolling. God knows what rollercoaster this'll take us on

The rollercoaster will be called 'Oblivion', i.e. its a ride, but there aint no ups.

Edited February 6, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[xerxes]

Hopefully as encouraging as the FAX outputs...

Indeed - some stunning faxes

The rollercoaster will be called 'Oblivion', i.e. its a ride, but there aint no ups.

Slightly pessimistic........or realistic? Edited February 6, 2007 by xerxes

[mackerel sky]

I am playing spot the difference at +48 hours. Very subtle differences, but those subtle differences are helpful in terms of reducing the 850s by a degree or two across central Britain.

In a way I feel there is limited value to watching this so far... the FAX charts must have the detail just about to this stage in my opinion, rendering the GFS pretty obsolete. ** SHOCK HORROR **.

I'll keep watching....

Another BIG SHOCK! Upto 72 hours the FAX charts might be correct!

At +84hrs -5C 850hPa isotherm a good 100-150 miles further SW, keeping virtually all of the Midlands in the game. Colder plunge of air encroaching on the southern edge of the weak Scandavian high if to be believed.

Friday midnight +96hrs, -5C 850hPa isotherm about 250 miles further south than the 18z. If to be believed, now somewhere around Nottingham.

Game over south of the Humber at +102hrs Saturday morning... if you want to believe that.

Game set and match to milder air at +108hrs. Because we all know the GFS is gospel.

We'll see how the GFS is looking beyond +60hours come the 06z. Thursday is the really interesting day and at this short range I don't know how we can't be looking at much other than our own civil service, the Met Office on this one. Although i'm sure there will be one or two arguing the toss, mostly because they feel they can. Even with the synoptics in place, I'm sure the marginal card will be played over and over again to death. Fitting for some areas, but one size doesn't fit all.

Late Friday onwards is still very much up in the air in my opinion, so worth GFS watching for that and the ensembles, as always for later on.

Edited February 6, 2007 by mackerel sky

[grab my graupel]

Yep low further South again on this run.

Better height rises to the North East compared with the 18z and offers

good prospects for something further down the line.

Edited February 6, 2007 by grab my graupels

[PersianPaladin]

I now officially retire from 00z model watching.

[grab my graupel]

I now officially retire from 00z model watching.

It's not looking good for us is it.

I hope the MetO is better