18z model discussion - models pah, just use the 5 min radar!

[Freezing-Point]

Its incredible, this looks so much like a miss the North East event again. What do we have to do?

I take consolation that the South and Midlands will get ANOTHER huge dumping of 2-3cm, which we wouldn't even notice up here anyway.

Don't make judgement on the current models. They will probably change on the next run and 100% will not predict all areas that will get snow. Shown in the current models are areas at risk of snow at this point. Risk being the important consideration.

Stay hopeful in the fact that we have the best charts in ages and anything can happen. I am sticking with TEITS and the title of this thread, so will be using the radar for snow confirmation or you might as well be pinning the tail on a donkey!!!

Edited February 5, 2007 by Freezing-Point

[mackerel sky]

I have to admit, and i've held this view for the past 24 hours, despite some chopping and changing it does look very encouraging for a period of upto 48 hours from midnight wednesday onwards for parts of the Midlands NE of the M40. Thats where the battleground will be in my opinion, at this moment in time. And i'm not simply just saying that because it benefits me.

This is taking into account what the majority of models are suggesting. I haven't been riding the GFS rollercoaster, prefering to accept the individual runs for what they are.

Plenty of nowcasting to do though, having even said that.

Edited February 5, 2007 by mackerel sky

[Stuka]

Is the problem that there are just too many models? I wonder if all we had to go on was the GFS, would we be able to disseminate that better if we knew we were working with one set of parameters rather than trying to dissect too much info. We would at least be able to assess the trends in a more meaningful way and understand its preferences/weaknesses. But which one do we run with?

[johnholmes]

WIB

They have a reputation for inaccuracy

that is both unfair and incorrect.

How can a man/model mix be as bad as you try to paint.

For goodness don't lose all credability. God knows what your mates at Exeter think of such a comment. Them making 'in house' comments which you may have heard is quite different to being slated publicly, take it from me.

[MKN]

Wow they certainly are well worth the wait.

They are excellent and im very excited for this area on thursday for something ive not seen probably since 96 here, saturdays chart looks more like a snow followed by rain event to me though, what do others think?

[Cloud 10]

The FAX charts don't look particularly snowy to me, not for us anyway.

Maybe i am reading it wrong,but that chart looks great for the north of england.

Then again that chart is for saturday,which is well into f.i. the way things are going.

Edited February 5, 2007 by Cloud 10

[Rollo]

At least you lucky folk can model watch up to the last minute,I am off to Spain for 72 hours-progged to be back mid-day Thursday if the airport is not closed by snow (I don't think). It is going to be a bumpy ride (and I do not mean the flight) until all is sorted out at probably T+6 so keep nicks prozac handy-enjoy.

[Stuka]

ask any member of the forecast team and they'll tell you that at short range they're very often the first things that are checked because of their extra detail and generally good accuracy!

Could you define " short range" please because as WIB sugests they are not usually the first to be cited.

[mackerel sky]

They are excellent and im very excited for this area on thursday for something ive not seen probably since 96 here, saturdays chart looks more like a snow followed by rain event to me though, what do others think?

I think that if we can squeeze 60 hours of really good snowfall potential, I won't be that bothered if it turns to rain saturday afternoon. Which both the FAX charts and tonights 18z suggest. As I say, in between time from the early hours of thursday onwards, it does look like there is some real potential for the East Midlands.

[paul tall]

Maybe i am reading it wrong,but that chart looks great for the north of england.

fIrst of all, its for Saturday, and I wasn't looking that far ahead, secondly its out of the reliable, and thirdly I can't see that front getting near us, or fourthly maybe I can't read charts properly.

[MKN]

I think that if we can squeeze 60 hours of really good snowfall potential, I won't be that bothered if it turns to rain saturday afternoon. Which both the FAX charts and tonights 18z suggest. As I say, in between time from the early hours of thursday onwards, it does look like there is some real potential for the East Midlands.

I wouldnt be to fussed either if it is snow followed by rain would be nice to see it go out with a bang (blizzard)

[Nick F]

WIB, not sure where you're getting it that the Fax's are least accurate, ask any member of the forecast team and they'll tell you that at short range they're very often the first things that are checked because of their extra detail and generally good accuracy!

I certainly go with that, the faxes pick up on more accurately mesoscale features than GFS at short-range through human intervention i.e looking at satellite, water-vapour imagery aswell as looking at other model output such as ECM, particularly for postions of troughs and frontal systems over Europe, they handle cold surface highs better with better input - like the area forming over the snowpack over Scandinavia currently.

John makes a valid comment too above.

Just found the 18z UKMO Global charts for t+36 and t+48 - as far as they go for 18z for some reason:

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm totally lost now.

Totally.

I'm not exactly happy with the charts. Wintry showers are not progged to come significantly inland into north-east England; and Thursday's event (although still highly uncertain) progs the main mass of precip to skirt to the west of Tyne&Wear\Durham...leaving us with the mere scraps.

I just want a decent north-easterly. This is an over-rated over-ramped 'event' (that is still on a knife-edge).

I'm totally lost as well- the GFS continues to go for a quite progressive outlook which bears out PP's assertions above (only very slight easterly drift on Weds, and thus showers mostly out at sea) and then not much for Thursday/Friday in the North East, though transitional snow for other areas.

However, if the UKMO and ECMWF are to be believed then we should have a light to moderate easterly on Wednesday, which would bring snow showers a long way inland, though would probably make it marginal for settling snow near the coast. More significant is the longer-term, with blocking holding firm for quite some time to the northeast and signs of rising heights over Greenland also- and plenty of frontal battleground snow events, with snow showers firing in to eastern areas to the north of the battleground zone.

Interesting comments from NOAA; if their assessments are accurate then we can expect the cold to hold on much longer than GFS is showing, though at the end of the day, we still can't be sure with such a divergence between the GFS and the Euro models. The FAX charts are bound to look spectacular as the Met Office appear to be siding with the Euro model outputs rather than the GFS- so some consensus among the experts, with NOAA and MetO making similar conclusions.

Tomorrow's runs will reveal more, I wouldn't write off GFS's progressive solution just yet...

[grab my graupel]

At least you lucky folk can model watch up to the last minute,I am off to Spain for 72 hours-progged to be back mid-day Thursday if the airport is not closed by snow (I don't think). It is going to be a bumpy ride (and I do not mean the flight) until all is sorted out at probably T+6 so keep nicks prozac handy-enjoy.

Hi Mike,

It's amazing isn't it how finely balanced this situation is.

When I spoke with you about 24 hours ago nothing has really changed since as far as knowing

exactly what's going to happen.

This is one Rollercoaster ride.

Have a save journey, and I look forward to your return

Brian.

[johnholmes]

Could you define " short range" please because as WIB sugests they are not usually the first to be cited.

for me below 72 hours, depending on the situation, at times, T+96. or even further ahead. One has to make a reasoned judgement on how all the main models are behaving and using the Fax chart is as good a method in the time scales as any, better usually.

[snowmadchrisuk]

I think that if we can squeeze 60 hours of really good snowfall potential, I won't be that bothered if it turns to rain saturday afternoon. Which both the FAX charts and tonights 18z suggest. As I say, in between time from the early hours of thursday onwards, it does look like there is some real potential for the East Midlands.

i'm tired and have just had a brief flick through at 18z. but upgrade for thursday and so far looking excelent for leicestershire and northampton. We woke up this morning depressed and downearted, were going to bed happy and also knowing that it's going to be another 24 hours closer to the event by tomorrow morning. at 6z tomorrow the event will be into 36 hours so we just need things to stay as they are now and i'm happy .

Edited February 5, 2007 by snowmadchrisuk

[SnowJoke]

My head hurts trying to get around what the hell is happenning with the different models.

IMHO the GFS has gone ga-ga, and currently looks like finishing the race to the looney bin in 1st place.

I'm more inclined to follow the UKMO and fax charts on this cold spell, even the weather forcasts on the BBC this evening have started to mention a major snow event, or looking extremely wintry for the midlands on thursday. After all the METO have alot more information avaliable than us tortured GFS watchers. lol

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Are these 80s style charts or what..you better believe it!!! Watch the storm this weekend too and a prolonged colder thrust from 17-20 Feb. Talk of lack of cold pooling or more needed is nonsense....bitterly cold in Scandi and it isn't going to budge.except advect west Peter Cockcroft says snow for a while in the south then turning to rain but stillvery cold

BFTP

[PersianPaladin]

My head hurts trying to get around what the hell is happenning with the different models.

IMHO the GFS has gone ga-ga, and currently looks like finishing the race to the looney bin in 1st place.

I'm more inclined to follow the UKMO and fax charts on this cold spell, even the weather forcasts on the BBC this evening have started to mention a major snow event, or looking extremely wintry for the midlands on thursday. After all the METO have alot more information avaliable than us tortured GFS watchers. lol

I just hope the UKMO is correct....it's my only chance. Lol.

[The Eagle]

I certainly go with that, the faxes pick up on more accurately mesoscale features than GFS at short-range through human intervention i.e looking at satellite, water-vapour imagery aswell as looking at other model output such as ECM, particularly for postions of troughs and frontal systems over Europe, they handle cold surface highs better with better input - like the area forming over the snowpack over Scandinavia currently.

John makes a valid comment too above.

Just found the 18z UKMO Global charts for t+36 and t+48 - as far as they go for 18z for some reason:

Yes ive just compared the 54hr UKMO 12z chart from the same source with the 18z UKMO 48hr chart you have just posted and they are virtually identical.

Edited February 5, 2007 by Darkman

[Snow Queen one]

I haven't got the UKMO chart link but have a gut feeling this is going to be a non event for me. We will see cold this week and then rain but no snow.

I find reading this thread exciting and also self defeating as i am sitting here wishing that it could be my area that gets tons of snowfall and feeling jealous of you lot in the midlands.

We don't get enough snow nowdays and i also think the models are into unfamiliar territory in so much as they have not had to handle this sort of set up before.

I am not going to hope anymore but use my most reliable method of forcasting and that is taking a look out of the window. lol

[MKN]

I haven't got the UKMO chart link but have a gut feeling this is going to be a non event for me. We will see cold this week and then rain but no snow.

I find reading this thread exciting and also self defeating as i am sitting here wishing that it could be my area that gets tons of snowfall and feeling jealous of you lot in the midlands.

We don't get enough snow nowdays and i also think the models are into unfamiliar territory in so much as they have not had to handle this sort of set up before.

I am not going to hope anymore but use my most reliable method of forcasting and that is taking a look out of the window. lol

I know its probably the better of the two situations to have as long as it goes to plan, but it could turn out people who arent expecting snow end up with it and people like myself find ourselves on the anti depressants after its gone t*ts up within +60 hours, im praying though i actually get to see a decent snowfall as i cant really remember one.

[wellington boot]

heres 18z's version of events at 60 hours. upgrade on 6 z what ever the negative people say.

Hooray im right in the middle of the darkest purple square!!

[Paul Sherman]

I haven't got the UKMO chart link but have a gut feeling this is going to be a non event for me. We will see cold this week and then rain but no snow.

I find reading this thread exciting and also self defeating as i am sitting here wishing that it could be my area that gets tons of snowfall and feeling jealous of you lot in the midlands.

We don't get enough snow nowdays and i also think the models are into unfamiliar territory in so much as they have not had to handle this sort of set up before.

I am not going to hope anymore but use my most reliable method of forcasting and that is taking a look out of the window. lol

Synoptically, I dont think since Netweather Started nearly 4 years ago we have seen this in the Winter area, it has always been North Sea showers that Kent gets plastered with, so you could be right this may not deliver for our areas, then again it is going to be so finely balanced that the snow line could be 5 miles North of your house whilst you have rain, but even doon south we can get atop the Sussex Downs or around Dunstable and still see where the rain turns to snow at elevation if we really push ourselves, so ALL IS NOT LOST The 1st low pressure shown on latest forecasts skimming into France and giving Bodmin etc a chance tomorrow is a good thing imo, as this increses the chances for the Thursday systems, its going to be a lottery quite frankly but with a bit of elevation and a decent car there should not be any excuses this week.

Paul Sherman

[Snow Queen one]

I know its probably the better of the two situations to have as long as it goes to plan, but it could turn out people who arent expecting snow end up with it and people like myself find ourselves on the anti depressants after its gone t*ts up within +60 hours, im praying though i actually get to see a decent snowfall as i cant really remember one.

It's called sods law. That last snowfall a week or so ago delivered snow on the tues night only just thick enough to cover the grass and we were not predicted it and then on thursday we were supposed to wake up to 5 - 10 cm and saw nothing so i don't hold out much hope for this one either.