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18z model discussion - models pah, just use the 5 min radar!


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

    Please continue discussion on the latest model runs here - please stay on topic. General cold spell discussion is available in this thread:

    http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=36157

    In depth/techie model discussion is here:

    http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=34546

    The latest GFS models can be seen here:

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

    And the ensembles here:

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

    Plus all the other major models and other features in the datacentre (free):

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=home

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)

    Cant complain at +12 :) it has no -10 850 air into northern scotland though, despite net-weather radar overlay already showing it in scotland right now??

    The bbc site has been completely updated now makes very interesting viewing

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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    Yes,the 18z will be dribbling out,already reports of snow from eastern scotland and the coast of north yorkshire.

    Hopefully the 18z will trend towards the ukmo.

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    Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl

    Ever so slightly warmer at +24

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
    Ever so slightly warmer at +24

    How believable is that though considering -10 850s are in scotland already and gfs doesnt show -10 at any time in the next 24hours?

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    Posted
  • Location: 115meters ASL, Andover,Hampshire
  • Location: 115meters ASL, Andover,Hampshire

    are my eyes deciving me has the LP due to pass over the UK headed off to france ?

    I think this may be a good thing for the longer run especially down here but i am no expert

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    First low too far South over N'ern France again for the South coast to see any ppn from it:

    post-1052-1170712300_thumb.png

    All eyes to the main secondary moving in for Thursday ...

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
    Well for the central southern areas and the midlands, rain was forecast for saturday its now either sleet or snow,

    One of the most important charts tonight is going to be the updated Fax charts at +96 & +120 because we shall see how this verifies with the raw UKMO output.

    This fax chart should come out between 10.30 - 11pm.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

    The GFS in the shorter terms shows quite good prospects up to the point it is at. The -5C at 850hPa looks quite stubborn but not wanting to jinx anything, fingers crossed.

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    Posted
  • Location: 115meters ASL, Andover,Hampshire
  • Location: 115meters ASL, Andover,Hampshire
    First low too far South over N'ern France again for the South coast to see any ppn from it:

    post-1052-1170712300_thumb.png

    All eyes to the main secondary moving in for Thursday ...

    and this will go to far north for anyone south of abingdon and at best down here we might see a little front edge snow then rain!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
    and this will go to far north for anyone south of abingdon and at best down here we might see a little front edge snow then rain!!!
    Looing excelent for the midlands emps around -1 thursday morning plenty of pn and a total upgrade on 6z and even better than 12z
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    Posted
  • Location: Immingham, NE Lincolnshire
  • Location: Immingham, NE Lincolnshire
    Again very different evolution to the UKMO. One of them is wrong.

    GFS has everything slightly further north, but it's not that different.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn6017.png

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn604.png

    Still cant complain really... but it is no UKM or ECM for that matter.

    Id still take it quite happily :drinks: , i just hope it goes the way of the ukmo, so it becomes more prolonged spell.

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    Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl

    Looks good for my area at +66, still under -5 850's while the PPN is right on top of us :drinks:

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    If anything the lows and -5C 850s are slightly further South on the run, though still wrong side of marginal for South of M4. Two shortwaves to deal with on Thursday!:

    post-1052-1170712866_thumb.png post-1052-1170712979_thumb.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
    I think the UKMO will have to back-down sooner or later.

    Your not the only one that thinks that :drinks: Its hard to see the GFS changing at this stage just 48hrs though I suppose stranger things have probrably happened.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

    As Ian suggests it is interesting on Thursday, Midlands north could see a whole day of snow, if the GFS were to come off, some fantastic charts for Thursday if you live in the north!

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