18z model discussion - models pah, just use the 5 min radar!

[BristolBaggie]

heres 18z's version of events at 60 hours. upgrade on 6 z what ever the negative people say.

Brilliant for the West Country although I can't see Midlands North getting anything from that map.

[HighPressure]

Is it all up for London and the SE then? it certainly looking now that we will get nothing on Wednesday morning and sleet if we are lucky Thursday. I am seriously depressed now

[Snowyowl9]

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn601.png

http://85.214.49.20/pics/brack2.gif

This is the best run of the day from GFS.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1201.png

http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif

http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif

Take your pick.

[Matty M]

Yes the 18z UKM that goes out to T+48hrs is going to be oh so interesting.. if it comes out of course!

I personally think the final outcome will be a mudge between the 2..

[grab my graupel]

Try again !

Looks like Scotlands the place to be.

Edited February 5, 2007 by grab my graupels

[Paul]

Just wanted to remind everyone - the fax charts update first here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...;type=fax;sess=

[patrickshere]

I hope for the love of God this doesn't happen Thursday morning.

I'm getting a flight to go skiing in Colorado Thursday @ 1pm.. Hopefully it rains.

[MKN]

I think the closer we get the bbc should be the best source to find out whats happening as im sure with the more information and with it being so close to the event there experience along with the info they have available to them the weather forecasts should start to change from a chance of snow but were unsure where, and start to give details of what will actually happen.

Might take u up on satalite watching tho teits just incase there uncertainty continues

[shuggee]

Sorry wrong chart

But UKMO have it 2-300 miles further south Brian. Who would you trust at this stage?? Fax charts in a wee while are going to be very interesting indeed.

[Surrey Snowstorm]

I am lost completely. The London SE weather forecast on BBC1 has just said snow probable mid week and most likely to the south of London

[kippure]

With the way the lows are postioning would this be one path it would take, drawing the cold back over the low and accross us. Maybe heading south and drawing a true easterly?

[on the coast]

The only major model that wasnt slated this evening at NOAA was the ukmo, the gfs 12hrs operational run was so badly slated it was almost embarrassing, its throwing too much energy into the atlantic causing events upstream to be thrown further north and east, it also has apparently called the east pacific wrong basically its all at sea and anyone hoping for it to be more accurate upto 72hrs than the ukmo needs a reality check!

The ukmo has been the most consistent over the last few days and with the human input we get in the fax charts I would advise everyone to stick to this for the timebeing and then that way this model watching wont turn into a complete car crash of emotions, best wait for the gfs to settle down and get the upstream pattern correct before placing too much faith in it, sometimes models go through good and bad patches its just having a bit of a wobble a the moment just as some of the other models do from time to time.

Roll on the fax charts later on then.

[TEITS]

Forget the GFS let's ramp away at the latest +96 fax chart

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/fax/PPVmate9.png

[paul tall]

I tell you what forget radar watching we are going to end up satellite watching to see the tracks of the LP's

Which isn't actually a bad idea....

[R.P. McMurphy]

BBC Weather. Possible snow for NW, NE & Scotland & N. Ireland tonight. With lots & lots of snow from Midlands Northward on wed night. I will tell you what, since about the 25th of this month, the models have predicted this. They need a badge for doing that! So far out into FI and they get it right...

[nick sussex]

Roll on the fax charts later on then.

I'm quite happy to go along with the ukmo even if it sticks rain in my region as I just feel its less prone currently to these mood swings of the gfs. The problem is that with 4 gfs runs per day and 4 different projections of who could get snow I'm surprised we havent had to set up an emergency gfs fall out helpline!

[Cloud 10]

18z 168hrs has its near hurricane a lot further back than the 12z.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Come on....let's stick strictly to comments on the model output otherwise these threads are unreadable.

[grab my graupel]

I'm quite happy to go along with the ukmo even if it sticks rain in my region as I just feel its less prone currently to these mood swings of the gfs. The problem is that with 4 gfs runs per day and 4 different projections of who could get snow I'm surprised we havent had to set up an emergency gfs fall out helpline!

I know what you mean Nick,

Ive got serious brain ache from all this.

It is making me a nervous wreck.

[paul tall]

I'm totally lost now.

Totally.

[PersianPaladin]

I'm not exactly happy with the charts. Wintry showers are not progged to come significantly inland into north-east England; and Thursday's event (although still highly uncertain) progs the main mass of precip to skirt to the west of Tyne&Wear\Durham...leaving us with the mere scraps.

I just want a decent north-easterly. This is an over-rated over-ramped 'event' (that is still on a knife-edge).

[grab my graupel]

18z 168hrs has its near hurricane a lot further back than the 12z.

Surely that low has got to be overdone, I hope so anyway.

[BristolBlizzard]

heres 18z's version of events at 60 hours. upgrade on 6 z what ever the negative people say.

Woah.. It's too close for comfort for me lol, if that chart were to come off I should see snow but it could go either way.

[TEITS]

:lol:

I know what you mean Nick,

Ive got serious brain ache from all this.

It is making me a nervous wreck.

My advice Brian is enjoy the ride and just take what comes.

The problem that many members including myself have is we always expect downgrades when in fact what we have seen over these past few days is upgrades. Now the models have upgraded we expect them to downgrade :lol:

The snow for me is a bonus but the hightlight is following the models in situations like this and let's face it they don't happen very often. Even when the models do finally agree nowcasting is going to be a valuable tool i.e radar, Sat, temp/DP reports and this is why I hope the other models fall inline with the UKMO because Wed night is going to great to follow and I may even stay up all night!!.

[disco-barry]

Monday is light years away but yes very interesting.