12z Model discussion - rain, sleet or snow?

[Slinky]

Going to last March 12th it was a totally different set-up but we had 4 inches of snow as the winds started SE then turned to the S/SE and they were strong too and was absolutely bitterly cold on this day as the temp was 1.3c then it turned to freezing drizzle despite the temp above freezing drifting snow before the light drizzle come which happened in the 80s too sometimes.

This day was still bitter at 2.1c max with some hail rain/snow mix and still drifting at times in strong S/SE winds.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2006/...00120060312.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2006/...00220060312.png

Then something I`ve only seen once before was it turned to freezing rain and it was heavy I was out in it later and my coat was freezing and the temp was getting lower the trees were creaking as you could here the ice on them as the wind was still strong it was getting worrying everything was ice and crunchy under foot until it stopped this night and got milder.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2006/...00120060313.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2006/...00220060313.png

All in all a major event

This looks a better event/s to me up there with 1996 anyway

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack1a.gif

The way it`s going it may track a little further south,if not you`ll have to come too the welsh hills too see some snow

Sorry off topic but the metO winter update sounds promising! As to the models for once i hope it stays put and not further south, just for once i want to see a proper snow fall, its been so many years since i have seen a good dumping

Edit- that sounds so dodgy

Edited February 6, 2007 by Slinky

[robert]

Here we go.

Sorry about the arrows though my hands always shake all the time due to medication and I struggle to draw straight lines.

Fantastic map with possible outcomes of snow accumulation for many areas.

I am in there some where

It would be nice if you could do a map for Saturday or maybe a bit nearer the time after some more updated model runs ?

Robert

[SMU]

ECM looks further south at 48 to me-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-48.GIF?06-0

S

[kold weather]

Intresting you say that Steve about how you think its too far north, do you remember Marc 04, it was the first real set-up I followed and it was fairly close to the current set-up, not the same but similar idea near our shores:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2004/...cka20040312.gif

Models had the fron treaching far north regions of England, furtyher north then progged right now howeveer in the end northern people were left very upset as the system ended up a good 50 miles further south, gave Wales quite a hammering if I recall as wel las west Midlands.

Of course its not the same but it need to be noted that the models tend to slightly under-do the strength of the highs a little and so the models may wlel be slightly over-doing how far north the front can get, but they may be right in the end, such is the uncertainty right now, will be intresting to watch and see what happens!

Edited February 6, 2007 by kold weather

[Stu_London]

I still think the fax charts are to far NORTH-

S

I think the fact that there remains so much (unprecedented??) model divergence at +36 to +48 means that fairly significant movement still is possible.

I have to agree though if it is still wrong it's going one way - south.

Also +100 on the models ATM is equivalant to about +280 in a stable pattern (i e deep in FI) - trends only past +60 - lets see if the 18Z is closer to the GEM solution than the 12Z - i know where my money is.

[joespontiac]

You know it's funny you say this Steve because I have this nagging doubt that even though my region is supposed to be in the ideal zone I can['t help but fear the area of snow won't even reach me and shall be further S. My instincts are telling me around 60miles further S.

thats luton then

[summer blizzard]

The FAX charts have human imput though, and are based on the ECWMF ensembles, obviously more runs have gone north and as a result, they have moved the front north.

[disco-barry]

Absolute BUMMER, where is tall pauls dome.

[swfc]

Absolute BUMMER, where is tall pauls dome.

What does this mean, will itsnow in sheff then

[SP1986]

I'm not sure but if there are changes then yes it will move south, however I don't think it will because the events that go south have been of a convective nature - more or less a channel low, however the low characterstics don't have extreme movement of low south written all over them. I would say that the FAX chart have got this right within a 15-20 miles margin North or south

[The Eagle]

Magical stuff darkman, This doesnt seem real.

Yes looks like snow on Wednesday night and Thursday. Good agreement now between the models. Still could be changes but I dont see things changing much now less then 48hrs out. Enjoy it while it lasts

[Cymro]

Yes i definately agree because when i read about what might happen on sunday i had a really funny feeling. I fought to myself this is going to be a big one. And it's not me getting over excited at all because when they forecast snow its normally about 3 to 4 inches on average these days. Also looking at all the charts i live just on the black mountains and my elevation is 320m asl therfor i have a good chance but even sea level should do good. It's currently snowing now here in Glanaman have any of you ever heard of it?

Ydych chi'n siarad Cymraeg os ydych chi da iawn i chi.

Nos da a ffydd yn yr eira

Gobaith am eira

Hwyl fawr

[Harsh Climate]

Absolute BUMMER, where is tall pauls dome.

Although its probably 80%-20% aggainst us getting a good dumping on thursday, there is still time for change! If the charts are the same come tommorow at 6pm, then I think weve been well and truly rajd!

This is so annoying! every cold spell in the last 10 years has failed to produce hardly anything, yet even the classic set-up seems like its guna dissapoint us...

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

Just for you Tamara the gem takes the low further south.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?...&hour=048hr

And the T48 latest fax has some 528 tucking in behind thursdays depression anyway.... could be a messy mix

OOPS should have read 48 thanks Joneseye

Edited February 6, 2007 by ned

[Filski]

Outside chance of a Thames Streamer early on then?

[BristolBlizzard]

Why does something deep down inside me tell me that it will turn out to be sleet or rain, I really hope not but I have this feeling

[Anti-Mild]

While I would like Thursdays event to be further north from a selfish point of view, I am willing to take one for the team and will the LP further south!

This show of selflessness comes from my belief that if it is more southerly then Saturdays event will be better for the country and will pave the way for a longer spell of cold. If the track is further North on Thursday I fear it may result in the mild weather making more of an impact into next week!

AM

[kold weather]

The FAX charts have human imput though, and are based on the ECWMF ensembles, obviously more runs have gone north and as a result, they have moved the front north.

I don't think they'd used the ECM for the latest fax charts as they look dead close to the UKMO raw output so the fax charts tonight are likely just the pure UKMO raw output, obviously put into the Fax chart format.

Stephen,I think you may be right but I do think the front will have a harder time getting there then currently progged for reasons I've already explained, i honestly think the front could be a good 12hrs 'slower' in getting to more N.England though I think overall its right just too fast.

AM- nearly every ensemble member that had snow on Sat-Sun also had this low taking a fairly low latitude tracking, the 12z op included in this to a certain extent as well though that run had the tilt of the front not quite so good for the south but it was a good run in that regard.

Edited February 6, 2007 by kold weather

[R.P. McMurphy]

Why does something deep down inside me tell me that it will turn out to be sleet or rain, I really hope not but I have this feeling

I would have the same feeling if I was from Bristol too. IMO Bristol is a make or break area regarding this snow, As some models are showing currently. I believe though, Bristol will just catch this one and it will snow. I do not want to build false hope though, but bear in mind, I think it will snow there.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Good Evening everyone,

Here is a model analysis for the GFS, UKMO, GME and NOGAPS, i am still awaiting ECM ?!?! but if i find time i will post those later

Technical_Model_Analysis.ppt

Be warned... it is a pretty big file, if you dont have powerpoint you can download a free powerpoint viewer here .... http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/details...;displaylang=en

Hope you enjoy

SM06

[Thundery wintry showers]

Intresting you say that Steve about how you think its too far north, do you remember Marc 04, it was the first real set-up I followed and it was fairly close to the current set-up, not the same but similar idea near our shores:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2004/...cka20040312.gif

Models had the fron treaching far north regions of England, furtyher north then progged right now howeveer in the end northern people were left very upset as the system ended up a good 50 miles further south, gave Wales quite a hammering if I recall as wel las west Midlands.

Of course its not the same but it need to be noted that the models tend to slightly under-do the strength of the highs a little and so the models may wlel be slightly over-doing how far north the front can get, but they may be right in the end, such is the uncertainty right now, will be intresting to watch and see what happens!

Another good example was early March 2006, when we had a northerly airflow over Britain, and lows tracking to the south.

All the models, especially GFS, repeatedly had lows tracking over Britain with a battleground between the Arctic air and the mild SW'lys- and some even had mild air associated with the depressions reaching the whole of Britain by the 4th March. In the event, all the depressions passed away to the south...

I doubt that the depressions will end up that far south this time (if they did, then it would be hats off to the GEM) but I agree with the view that if the models have it wrong, the depressions are more likely to end up further south.

[ianshortall]

What does this mean, will itsnow in sheff then

Stephen do you think we will get some snow on the Wirral, woke up with a light covering this morning in New Brighton ?

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

Funny thing is that the GFS 12z 106h looks an awfull lot like it did at 108h on sat (if thats the correct maths *lol*)

[snowmadchrisuk]

I'm fed up. I have had several posts removed recently due to being slightly off topic!. So the fact i have just had to go through pages and pages of will it snow here will i snow there is annoying. I gave up in the end and as a result have probably missed some important posts. It seems to be 1 rule for 1 and 1 rule for the other.

On current projections it looks like the east midlands could be in the firing line for both thursday and saturday with some heavy snow showers on friday.

Chris

Edited February 6, 2007 by snowmadchrisuk

[frozencamel]

Why does something deep down inside me tell me that it will turn out to be sleet or rain, I really hope not but I have this feeling

I was thinking the same thing only 30 minutes ago.

I tell you why you have that feeling. Because it happens far to often..