12z Model discussion - rain, sleet or snow?

[Rustynailer]

Yes i definately agree because when i read about what might happen on sunday i had a really funny feeling. I fought to myself this is going to be a big one. And it's not me getting over excited at all because when they forecast snow its normally about 3 to 4 inches on average these days. Also looking at all the charts i live just on the black mountains and my elevation is 320m asl therfor i have a good chance but even sea level should do good. It's currently snowing now here in Glanaman have any of you ever heard of it?

Ydych chi'n siarad Cymraeg os ydych chi da iawn i chi.

Nos da a ffydd yn yr eira

Gobaith am eira

Hwyl fawr

Had to look it up 15 miles N of port Talbert, no doubt you will get a good covering up there

I enjoyed the Welsh bit b/w, i didn't understand, but it looks as so your happy

As Steve Murr says he thinks this my happen further south, i am still optimistic for at least some snow for the South Coast, even if its just seeing 10 Min's of heavy wet snow in the middle of all that rain.

There is one thing though with such a fine balance at the moment as to where the fight between warm and cold air will take place and how long it will last, the models, radar, satellite, etc' and this thread are damn interesting.

Russ

[Snowly does it]

Well, isn't this getting exciting?!

The track is getting narrowed down now and I am looking forward to watching how everything verifies. 12z great for short and long term prospects.

With a dusting last night I am already 'on the board' for this cold spell, woohoo!

I have to say its been awesomely fun these last few days watching this close in on us with each run.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looks to be some tasty showers developing out in the North Sea at the moment, only problem being they are currently tracking due south rather than south west.

12Z GFS shows the wind direction gradually swinging around to the NE tonight, with a slight easterly setting in tomorrow, which should help bring those showers inland- indeed there's some evidence of their movement starting to trend towards NNE-SSW, as opposed to the due north-south of an hour ago.

[paul tall]

Yes, the law of sod bites us in the I have a problem again.

Let us pray. Let us pray in my dome for some significant wind veerage, and the isolated light 5 minute snow showers shall be ours. All ours!

[Sawel]

No comments at all on the ECM?

I'm not surprised.....

[PersianPaladin]

12Z GFS shows the wind direction gradually swinging around to the NE tonight, with a slight easterly setting in tomorrow, which should help bring those showers inland- indeed there's some evidence of their movement starting to trend towards NNE-SSW, as opposed to the due north-south of an hour ago.

Your in the best position to give us the latest update on the lower-level wind direction....

Thanks mate!

(Although I fear that by the time the wind does swing round to the right direction....convection dies off and snow falls during the day when the sun is strong; rather than giving us a decent nightly base..)

Edited February 6, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[The Eagle]

No comments at all on the ECM?

I'm not surprised.....

Its practically the same as regards Thursday but differs after that. Not going beyond Thursday atm myself.

Good Evening everyone,

Here is a model analysis for the GFS, UKMO, GME and NOGAPS, i am still awaiting ECM ?!?! but if i find time i will post those later

Technical_Model_Analysis.ppt

Be warned... it is a pretty big file, if you dont have powerpoint you can download a free powerpoint viewer here .... http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/details...;displaylang=en

Hope you enjoy

SM06

Nice read, thanks for that Snow-man

[Nick F]

Can we keep to model discussion please, chat about whether you'll catch a snow shower tonight should really be in the other threads, where some of the posts have been moved to.

Interesting t+192 ECM chart - with a ridge building North keeping further Atlantic lows at bay and a high over Scandi:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-192.GIF?06-0

[Snow storm]

Judging by the FAX Charts this event will be for the north. The DAM 528 line is way too high for us Southerners.

I guess ive had my dumping so far on the 27th. (1st proper snow in 5 years). 2 dumps in one winter just isn't going to happen.

[Long haul to mild]

No comments at all on the ECM?

I'm not surprised.....

Yes, it certainly isn't going with the GFS re the weekend; it brings back more "standard" Atlantic weather on Saturday, especially for the South with the Low tracking to the North.

Having said that, there's almost an Easterly at T216!

Edited February 6, 2007 by Chalk Serpent

[James M]

Judging by the FAX Charts this event will be for the north. The DAM 528 line is way too high for us Southerners.

I guess ive had my dumping so far on the 27th. (1st proper snow in 5 years). 2 dumps in one winter just isn't going to happen.

But hasn't it been said that the 528 DAM line is one of the poorest indicators for snow?

[smhouston]

Judging by the FAX Charts this event will be for the north. The DAM 528 line is way too high for us Southerners.

I guess ive had my dumping so far on the 27th. (1st proper snow in 5 years). 2 dumps in one winter just isn't going to happen.

The 528 line isn't the only indicator of whether it'll snow or not. Theere are many factors involved. Also, the precipitation is going to be from across the UK from norfolk downwards, therefore this is not a north event at all.

[skywatcher]

For those in the NE - evening news weather forecast says snow showers coming inland tonight. Also that we'll be on the edge of any snow Thurs, which is in line with what the models say (unless they show an even more southerly track). Watching the models for us in the NE at the moment is like seeing a party to which you haven't been invited

[Snow storm]

But hasn't it been said that the 528 DAM line is one of the poorest indicators for snow?

But basically if your not within the 528 DAM line region (unless you live v. high ASL) you stand no chance of any sustained peirod of snow.

[Nick F]

Judging by the FAX Charts this event will be for the north. The DAM 528 line is way too high for us Southerners.

I guess ive had my dumping so far on the 27th. (1st proper snow in 5 years). 2 dumps in one winter just isn't going to happen.

The 528 DAM line of the 500-1000mb thicknesses isn't always a hard and fast rule to where snow will or will not fall, particularly as it represents the thickness of the lowest 5km of the tropsphere and doesn't take into account cold surface conditions in the lowest km or the height of the 0C isotherm which is often more critical, it's possible for snow to fall above 528 DAM in some situations of evaporative cooling in heavy precipitation.

[BristolBlizzard]

Well there's my opinion. Have fun.

[wellington boot]

Overwhelmed? Underwhelmed surely? Positive AO tends to promote warm and wet conditions in our neck of the woods... interestingly the NAO is trending negative in the long term, which is a good thingh.

Not that I ascribe much accuracy to the long term NAO/AO forecasts

Sorry yes i meant to write underwhelmed!! Though actually i probably just wrote can rather than cant by mistake. It should have been 'I can't say im overwhelmed"

Edited February 6, 2007 by wellington boot

[The PIT]

Yeh ECM seems pretty determined to bring the Milder Atlantic back in. Not a good run and hopefully it's wrong.

[SP1986]

But basically if your not within the 528 DAM line region (unless you live v. high ASL) you stand no chance of any sustained peirod of snow.

Believe it or not youve got more chance of getting snow in 530 dam thean 500 dam, so it's possible, and it this situation the 528 wont make much difference.

[grab my graupel]

For those in the NE - evening news weather forecast says snow showers coming inland tonight. Also that we'll be on the edge of any snow Thurs, which is in line with what the models say (unless they show an even more southerly track). Watching the models for us in the NE at the moment is like seeing a party to which you haven't been invited

Yes and particularly when you have been watching it develop all week, and then it

only delivers for a handful of members.

Looks like Saturday is heading for a none event if the MetO gets it's way aswell.

[SMU]

Snow to 540 DAM in easterly set ups...

S

[Cloud 10]

Nice to see good solid agreement in the ensembles!

[wellington boot]

In My mind I have ALways had Oxford as the Sweet spot-

remember the forecasts in 96- had the front to London..... never made it...

s

Don't do this to me Steve. Don't get my hopes up like this. To be honest, from what i have been seeing over the last couple of days, I have also been feeling that oxford should really be in a very good position, but we are, to use my phrase again, right in the highest risk/highest gain spot. I feel the front should be further south, but small adjustments could take us from a snow to rain damp squib to a memorable major snow event.

[The PIT]

Nice to see good solid agreement in the ensembles!

FI starts in three days time.

[robert]

Looking in the long term the 19th 20th looks good for snow for all areas

Be nice to see what tonights chart brings.

Robert