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12z Model discussion - rain, sleet or snow?

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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wellington boot Enthusiast

wellington boot

Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
Posted
For those that love the atlantic its heartbreak this evening as its decided to go and bother someone else.

Out there i think the only person it's bothering is a lone man in a rowing boat...

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BristolBlizzard Rookie

BristolBlizzard

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
Posted
Wont you look at that. Either side of the 0 degrees!! :)

and other interesting bbc forecasts, for those who enjoy looking at the bbc ramping snow for once, even if their little five day forecasts are useless, nottingham has two days of heavy snow forecast, while bristol even gets heavy sbnow on thursday, despite having temps no lower than 4 degrees...

Just to acknowledge the uselessness of the bbc though, dublin has no ppn til saturday, amazing given that a huge swathe of ppn, be it rain or snow, passes directly over them thursday.

But isn't the main band of PPN coming over us early, early hours of thursday morning.. surely it wont be 4 degrees then.

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

Just seen the 12Z and how exciting this is becoming.

Anyone wondering just how much the GFS has upgraded since yesterday they only need to look at the link below.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9617.png

Max temps of 1C and yesterday it was progging 9C for saturday!.

Simple reason is that as the shortwave moves E we start to draw a colder feed from the E and shown on the 850hpa charts.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn602.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn722.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn842.png

My advice would be to stick with the Sat/Radar/Fax for the snow event on Thurs and concentrate on the model output between +72 & +120 because im sure we haven't seen the end of these changes yet.

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wellington boot Enthusiast

wellington boot

Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
Posted
WB, that set-up on Saturday is the best set-up I've ever seen at such close range on the GFS, its the type of set-up you usually only see at 300hrs!

Very intresting little period of weather coming up.

By the way Steve, nearly 50% of the esnemble runs have the frontal boundary further south, with a couple having the northern extent only being the far S.Midlands with us in the sweet spot so to speak.

Also control run also brings in the same mas sof precip as the 12z opdoes on Saturday with heavy snow for all north of the M4.

I know its the best ive seen that close too, we're in agreement (just in case you didn't say that because you thought i didn't see it!)

But isn't the main band of PPN coming over us early, early hours of thursday morning.. surely it wont be 4 degrees then.

yes you're right - just more evidence of the s***ness of the bbc five day forecasts

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Yeti Apprentice

Yeti

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
Posted
Regards this week, I think for us, snow will be miminal.

Agreed, maybe a cm at the most unless the low miraculously darts further N.

I'm really interested in Saturday, as we are in just the best spot if that 12z chart came off - potential for a lot more snow than Thurday's event. Let's pray it comes off!

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Stoxs Apprentice

Stoxs

Posted
  • Location: Salisbury , Wiltshire
  • Location: Salisbury , Wiltshire
Posted

many thanks to MR MURR for his sumary very interesting as usual!!

This thread is superb keep it up folks

anyway ,question

how does the models cope with snow fields?

Would this help to keep the PPN as snow?

I have noticed over recent days the temps predicted for my area were several degrees high compaired with what we got.

In this sort of situation how much colder does it need to be for any PPN to stay as snow and not turn to rain ?

thanks again to all your inputs ,keep up the good work

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Matty M Community Regular

Matty M

Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
Posted

UKM is out to T+72 and i can almost lick the snow :):):rofl::)

Off course my mocks are at 9am Thursday morning for 3hrs and 20mins!

I tells ya this that snow better arrive here from 4am! Cause i cant miss this!

If theres 2 inches lying come 830am there wont be no tests cause its in a hall and it was freezing today.. so can you imagine it then!!??

Come on snow get here as early Thursday as possible! :)

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willitbsunny Newbie

willitbsunny

Posted
  • Location: Pencoed, South Wales
  • Location: Pencoed, South Wales
Posted
The netweather snow depth charts are showing a dumping for us on Saturday. How reliable are they? So far, so good.

Hi Magpie - I'm also from South Wales (80m ASL) - whats your views on how much snow we'll get - everywhere I look I see a different story?

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BristolBlizzard Rookie

BristolBlizzard

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
Posted
UKM is out to T+72 and i can almost lick the snow :):):rofl::)

Off course my mocks are at 9am Thursday morning for 3hrs and 20mins!

I tells ya this that snow better arrive here from 4am! Cause i cant miss this!

If theres 2 inches lying come 830am there wont be no tests cause its in a hall and it was freezing today.. so can you imagine it then!!??

Come on snow get here as early Thursday as possible! :)

Thursday is my longest day of the week at college so if we do get snow I'll be glad to have that day off :)

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PersianPaladin Aficionado

PersianPaladin

Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
Posted
Agreed, maybe a cm at the most unless the low miraculously darts further N.

I'm really interested in Saturday, as we are in just the best spot if that 12z chart came off - potential for a lot more snow than Thurday's event. Let's pray it comes off!

Yes, let us pray indeed.

I think Saturday will be the only real chance for us lot in the north-east\north yorkshire to actually get something that resembles a respectable lying snow cover.

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WINTRY WALES Aficionado

WINTRY WALES

Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
Posted
WB, that set-up on Saturday is the best set-up I've ever seen at such close range on the GFS, its the type of set-up you usually only see at 300hrs!

Very intresting little period of weather coming up.

By the way Steve, nearly 50% of the esnemble runs have the frontal boundary further south, with a couple having the northern extent only being the far S.Midlands with us in the sweet spot so to speak.

Also control run also brings in the same mas sof precip as the 12z opdoes on Saturday with heavy snow for all north of the M4.

Im only about 6 miles north of the m4 so i hope this "only snow north of the m4" is not that precise :)

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robert Apprentice

robert

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis, Garenin, Outer Hebrides
  • Location: Isle of Lewis, Garenin, Outer Hebrides
Posted
Just seen the 12Z and how exciting this is becoming.

Anyone wondering just how much the GFS has upgraded since yesterday they only need to look at the link below.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9617.png

Max temps of 1C and yesterday it was progging 9C for saturday!.

Simple reason is that as the shortwave moves E we start to draw a colder feed from the E and shown on the 850hpa charts.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn602.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn722.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn842.png

My advice would be to stick with the Sat/Radar/Fax for the snow event on Thurs and concentrate on the model output between +72 & +120 because im sure we haven't seen the end of these changes yet.

Very exciting yes . With more upgrades to come! :):rofl::):)

Charts can change so fast!

Looking forward to tonights chart.

Robert

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PersianPaladin Aficionado

PersianPaladin

Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
Posted
Very exciting yes . With more upgrades to come! :):):):rofl:

Charts can change so fast!

Looking forward to tonights chart.

Robert

OMG!!! No cookies or hot chocolate?!?!?!?

:)

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

Intrestingly Darkman very similar to the ensembles I mentioned earlier and quite a few keep the precip as snow for areas just north of the M4 the whole way thorugh and as you say lots of snow about, esp in the Midlands. i'm still happy with my call arlier today about waht will happen, south gets snow for a good few hours, turns to rain in the morning, somewhere to the north gets a lot of snow.

Saying that you never ever quite know how these will pan out, the models really don't mean that nuch as the resolution isn't good enough to mointer the exact details of such frontal boundary/wave developments.

By the way most models bring in a massof precip on Sat-Sun but the key to the type of precip intrestingly looks to be solely on how far north this front gets on Thursday

Edited by kold weather
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memories of 63 Apprentice

memories of 63

Posted
  • Location: 10mi NW Leeds 147m asl
  • Location: 10mi NW Leeds 147m asl
Posted
Very exciting yes . With more upgrades to come! :):):):rofl:

Charts can change so fast!

Looking forward to tonights chart.

Robert

OK Robert, How did you manage to get TEITS's quote to seem as if it happened in the future? :)

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Troubleatmill Community Regular

Troubleatmill

Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
Posted (edited)

not looking great for up here is it PP , you can guarantee if this was middle of July , that front would wizz over southern England & wales & straddle Lancashire Cumbria Durham & Yorshire bringing endless drizzle for days on end while further south they would bask in a spanish plume ! the whole thing sends me a bit 8P

Edited by arron123
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The Eagle Seasoned

The Eagle

Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
Posted
Intrestingly Darkman very similar to the ensembles I mentioned earlier and quite a few keep the precip as snow for areas just north of the M4 the whole way thorugh and as you say lots of snow about, esp in the Midlands. i'm still happy with my call arlier today about waht will happen, south gets snow for a good few hours, turns to rain in the morning, somewhere to the north gets a lot of snow.

Saying that you never ever quite know how these will pan out, the models really don't mean that nuch as the resolution isn't good enough to mointer the exact details of such frontal boundary/wave developments.

I agree. Two cracking charts there all the same. Some interesting 12z ensemble members for Thursday. Some different ideas as to how long the snow will last. Definately could rule out the front falling as snow in its entireity. It arrives in the early hour of the morning too probrably with frost ahead of it or frozen ground so could not be a a more condusive setup for the possibility of snow really. :)

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wellington boot Enthusiast

wellington boot

Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
Posted
Im only about 6 miles north of the m4 so i hope this "only snow north of the m4" is not that precise :)

Your 200m asl is pretty handy though... And im only 25 odd miles north of the M4. Getting tense...

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