12z model discussion - did someone mention snow?

[carinthian]

Sod it you know I haven't ramped much lately but time to throw caution in the wind.

Im beginning to think it may not even turn milder and if it does it shall only be temporary in the S. The reason is the chart below because the trend is becoming clear to me that the models continue to underestimate the blocking to our N and the outcome of this shall be a return to much colder weather across the whole country due to the HP strengthening to our N and the LP taking a S,ly route.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.png

Thats the spirit my boy.

C

[Rustynailer]

Sod it you know I haven't ramped much lately but time to throw caution in the wind.

Im beginning to think it may not even turn milder and if it does it shall only be temporary in the S. The reason is the chart below because the trend is becoming clear to me that the models continue to underestimate the blocking to our N and the outcome of this shall be a return to much colder weather across the whole country due to the HP strengthening to our N and the LP taking a S,ly route.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.png

The low with front may stop progressing East tomorrow and may even get pushed back a little W or SW, or even deflect SE, surly that can't be ruled out ?

Russ

[VillagePlank]

Here's my efforts regarding amounts, time, and location of falling snow: one for upto 6z, the other from 6z-12z.

This is meant to show where and when I think precipitation will fall as snow (ie >50/50 snow chance)

I've also highlighted areas where although one might expect rain there is a chance of snow, I think - or locally particulary heavy falls. I haven't factored in a stalling front, either. All this is for sea-level, so amounts should increase on N facing hill slopes etc etc

EDIT: ** This is solely from my read of the GFS charts, and does not factor in the FAX, or any other model output; so use these charts with care. Think: Do I trust GFS? Then, do I trust VP! **

Edited February 7, 2007 by VillagePlank

[January Snowstorm]

Well it's the worst run imaginable for me.

For tomorrow I get the cold air but the precipitation fizzles out.

Then at the weekend the cold air stays too far to the north leaving me with nothing

yet again.

What a suprise.

Have fun everyone else!

Dont worry Brian raining here so I'm reserving the mother of all moans for later B)

[West is Best]

Utterly bitter night according to the GFS, -9c according to that chart would probably equal about -11C in real life and maybe even a touch lower in hollows:

I can't see -9C in England Kold on the 12z GFS, having trawled through every frame of the Extra charts. More like -3C to -4C inland before the cloud moves in.

I have a sinking feeling about this ... but then I guess I would. I can't see any sign that this is further south at all. Looks the same as the 6z, and still progressive. I suspect some front edge snow should fall. Then it'll be marginal for the rest of the rain belt whether it'll hold as snow or, as I suspect, turn to rain before fizzling out.

Anyway, off to work. Will let you know what's happening in Exeter around 10.30 pm.

[kold weather]

Yep Steve Sat system looks good for Scotland and I dare say the thing will get moved south to make it an event for the N.England as well.

Nick, i think the models are only now starting to see just how cold the cold air actually is, i noted Steve M posted yesterday night about the models under-doing the cold, the models now look like they are finally feeding it thorugh now as evidenced by the beeb forecasts showing the snow lasting the whole way thjorugh the band.

I also remember March 2005 with a frontal system progged to bring in a warm sector and only the front edge being snowed but as the time got closer that snow mass got larger and larger and on the day it snowed the whole way through bar the very tail end. I'll say this will likely happen in this case as well.

West---it is there mate, look at the wetterzentrale site near Manchester:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs424.gif

The cold air hangs on longer West on the 12z but the front is about the same, but I relaly can't see why you think its marginal, at least in the Midlands I relaly don't think so, but then again you are the antidote to cold so I suppose you've got to keep our feet on the ground somewhat!

Edited February 7, 2007 by kold weather

[MKN]

Here's my efforts regarding amounts, time, and location of falling snow: one for upto 6z, the other from 6z-12z.

This is meant to show where and when I think precipitation will fall as snow (ie >50/50 snow chance)

I've also highlighted areas where although one might expect rain there is a chance of snow, I think - or locally particulary heavy falls. I haven't factored in a stalling front, either. All this is for sea-level, so amounts should increase on N facing hill slopes etc etc

Lets hope so the only difference of opinion i think later during the day 12pm-4pm the heavier snow will be more towards the east and slowly break up over western areas.

[Drew]

Can someone help?

I've never really under stood dewpoints..... Mine is currently -9.7C with actually temp of 0.3C..

Yours with anticipation of lots snow as sems i'm in the prime spot.

[Andy Bown]

I can't see -9C in England Kold on the 12z GFS, having trawled through every frame of the Extra charts. More like -3C to -4C inland before the cloud moves in.

He's talking about Friday morning after the snowfall with -9c over the snowfields (so to say), not tonight/tomorrow with the cloud moving in during the night.

[VillagePlank]

Lets hope so the only difference of opinion i think later during the day 12pm-4pm the heavier snow will be more towards the east and slowly break up over western areas.

I stopped at 12z. Do you believe in coincidences?

[MKN]

I stopped at 12z. Do you believe in coincidences?

i thought the first was up to 12z and the 2nd 1 for 12z onwards (read what u put wrong) B) anyway i hope everywhere gets blanketed with snow, have to say the viewing figures for the 627 and 1027 weather on bbc will be interesting

Edited February 7, 2007 by SnowTornado

[coxxy22]

just watched the news 24 weather and it has deffo changed since earlier, this time round it showed the snow alot further south (actualy on the south coast) were as earlier it showed rain

fingers crossed

[snow_1_important]

Just a quick movie of the Sat pictures to show progression and track... B)

sat.mpg

[Weather-history]

I can't see -9C in England Kold on the 12z GFS, having trawled through every frame of the Extra charts. More like -3C to -4C inland before the cloud moves in.

I have a sinking feeling about this ... but then I guess I would. I can't see any sign that this is further south at all. Looks the same as the 6z, proand still gressive. I suspect some front edge snow should fall. Then it'll be marginal for the rest of the rain belt whether it'll hold as snow or, as I suspect, turn to rain before fizzling out.

Anyway, off to work. Will let you know what's happening in Exeter around 10.30 pm.

-9C was on the 06z for the same Friday morning as well. Whether its correct who knows.

Milder ramper to the bitter end. B)

[wellington boot]

Right this is it. It's getting dark, and the temp here has dropped off to 2C from a high of 4C or thereabouts. Ball is rolling. Here's to hoping the gfs will be wrong and the front will stall over me.

[Optimus Prime]

I think we should give WIB some slack. He will be in the southwest enjoying a cold rainy day while us in the east will be viewing white scenes not seen since February 1991.

It was marginal WIB but it's looking less and less marginal by the forecast. Even the south coast could get a few hours of heavy sleet/snow.

I would say the absolute low tomorrow night will be around -13c. Still very low for England in the even larger teapot.

[TEITS]

-9C was on the 06z for the same Friday morning as well. Whether its correct who knows.

Milder ramper to the bitter end.

These low min temps have actually been suggested by the GFS for the past couple of days.

The chart below clearly highlights the low temps.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs424.gif

Im rather pleased with this because IMO it is where the deepest lying snow shall be which is very close to the map I posted. Im not sure what elevation is like in this region but the low temps is certainly down to lying snow.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The GFS 12Z looks more similar to the Euro models' 00Z outputs (UKMO and ECMWF) and also, as others have mentioned, the GEM. I still think the GFS 06Z was possibly over-progressive, and that the GFS 12Z, with a snow event for tomorrow, slightly less cold into Friday with marginal snow for the north at the weekend, is more likely to have it nailed on.

Although I often point out that easterly types don't always bring heavy snow showers near the east coast, I agree that if the lows were to track much further south, this one almost certainly would, with anomalously high SSTs, an airmass sourced partly over arctic maritime regions, cold upper air temps and relatively weak HP to the N and NE. Indeed the GFS suggests that wintry showers are likely near the east coast immediately to the north of the precipitation band, likely to be of snow to the north of Thursday's band, but possibly a wintry mix near the coast prior to Saturday's band.

There would be much to get excited about if the Atlantic systems were to buckle south into early next week allowing us to tap into those ENE'lys progged to our NE, but I doubt that this will happen due to the strength of the Atlantic systems. Further down the line, it may be a different story- if we can keep northern blocking in place, and the Atlantic systems run out of steam, then some kind of deep cold ENE'ly is quite possible.

[VillagePlank]

IMO it is where the deepest lying snow shall be which is very close to the map I posted. Im not sure what elevation is like in this region but the low temps is certainly down to lying snow.

I wouldn't have forecast the front to move N'wards that quickly (ie with lying snow for 6z) And nor is GFS - with the heavier precipitation still to come for the area you highlight:

[Snowyowl9]

T78 has moved & looks remarkably like the GEM-

This run will certainly make the Northerners Sweat ( in the nicest possible way) as the they are in the sweet spot-

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn781.png

Although that sweet spot could be going the same way... SOUTH!!!!!!!

S

Saturday does indeed look very sweet now and the fax charts looked good too.

It gets better an better with these small upgrades as yesterday`s 12z run looked great but not as much as todays.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn601.png

The low is to the south of us.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn901.png

[snow_1_important]

All I can say is GOOD LUCK for tomorrow where ever you are, enjoy it with you family and kids, remember most out them havn't seen snow like this in their lifetime

[Paul Sherman]

Dave, I have been banging on for a few days now about how "Special" these charts look, and I can also see a pattern occuring here, Mild Low pressures crashing up against the Block a la late 70 and early eighties, cant wait to see how it progresses over the next 10 days.

Paul Sherman

[TEITS]

Not sure if this has been posted I don't think it has but it's the +24 fax chart updated 20mins ago.

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVE89.TIF

Snow in the Midlands/E Anglia/N Wales, turning less cold in the far S.

Not often you can post charts like that at +24

[kold weather]

Oh god you mentioned 91 OP. i don't think it'll be quite like that, at least on a more widespread levl but yeah its going to be quite a noteable snowfall and from the looks of the warnings and nothing to be sniffed at because as you say, this is the even larger teapot and these set-ups are not common.

Anyway GFS keeps putting energy to the south of the Uk even into deeper FI, though the cold pool is gone by this time its still cool according to the 12z GFS, set-up really doesn't shift at all on this run till about 288hrs:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2041.png

The 12z makes the following week very wet but a small change would make it very snowy, but the jet doesn't look like making much northward progress yet according to this run!

Edited February 7, 2007 by kold weather

[Paul Sherman]

Surely now people seeing charts like these must be rubbing there hands together, not the piddly 2 day Toppler with warm North Easterlies, these are charts to behold and all under t96.

Paul Sherman