Snow & Cold Spell General Discussion Part 5

[Mammatus]

Watching the latest news forecast the snow risk seems to have shifted further south than earlier forecast, any more knowledgeable people car to comment on how far north the snow is expected to travel, im started to think it might not reach here at this rate.

I expected this to happen at the last minute, although if I had of said this 6 hours ago I would have been shot.

AAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BBC weather has COMPLETELY changed!! No snow for Northern Ireland, snow for southern England, barely getting into the midlands, and fizzing out completely by midday, with the most northern extent of snow in a line between top of wales and the wash.

How can they change it so much in an hour??????

NNNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

IM NOT GUNNA SEE ANY AARRRRRGHHHH!!!!!!!!!

There's gunna be a LOT of dissapointed people tomorrow.

It will change even further come 6am boro_dave, the snow maybe even further south. I personally can't see anywhere North of Birmingham through to Norfolk receiving any snow from this low. Lets hope Im wrong for you guys, not looking good and only 6 - 9 hours away!!

Places along the M4 will see some big totals I think-

m

[crimsone]

My main worry is the temperature, I think its about 0.5C here at the moment with a Dew Point of -2. The PPN will probs reach here around 01:15 I'm guessing, will it be rain/sleet or snow?

Lets put it this way - the temp and dewpoint here are currently 2.8 and 0.3 respectively (yes, both positive numbers), and yet it's snowing quite decently. It's not sticking, but it is snowing.

Edited February 8, 2007 by crimsone

[chilly milly]

I am dreadfully confused now. Is this not going happen now? Very disappointing if not :<

[mathall1]

Well, it continues to snow here in Kenfig hill, and still it won't stick. I don't know if the temperature and dewpoint will drop low enough to see a covering anytime soon, but to be honest, I'm just pleased to see the magical white flakes dropping from the sky at last (and for a change)

Crimsone how longs it been snowing dude.Im in bath and hoping for something worth getting excited about.And also is it heavy light snow or what

[Supercell]

Looks like I will be up all night now. I was hoping to go to bed feeling confident (for once that I could wake up to snow falling). Not the case. I sense the nightmare downgrade at T +3 hrs. I have warned over the last few days about how it just does not happen here.

Would love to be completely wrong.

[shrike]

what does rob mcelwe think hes doing he better have changed it again lol

He's a cold ramper maybe better news in the early hours?

[boro_dave]

Ok just to back up why I said ignore that BBC forecast where it says no snow getting north of south midlands...

Tell me, is that not showing PPN as far north as south yorkshire tomorrow midday?

Yes but that was the 18z gfs forecast, the bbc's was made at 00z (6 hours down the line, updated data etc.) and as much as everyone slates them, i bet theyre right.

Gunna watch their forecast now on bbc news 24 (in about 2 mins) if it is the same at at 12 (or worse) im going to bed and EVERYONE is gunna be angry at the METO tomorrow.

*crosses fingers and hopes the bbc go back the other way*

[snowingtequila]

I complemented them!

On their summer storm forecasts, they just cant handle snow and thats probrably down to the models anyway

oh deary me, the capital letters are out to play, it hasnt even started and people are cursing and flaming already

Oh well only 2 days till half term, unless school is closed, then my bid not to do my history coursework will pay offf haha

I relly shoulf get to sleep soon

Ok i am dissapointed with reports so far but im not sharing my misery with everyone through capital letters, pleaseif you are peed off, shout at the wall or your dog or something but not on here... Ta!

the comment was about your abuse of the met ofice not a shout of sadness at a change of projection of an occluded front, calm down.

[Lynxus]

Sorry dont like doing this but wtf ppl. it seems to of completely gone! chances screwed game over..

The front has halted and sliding it wouldnt suprise me if the midlands ended up with frost!

[tom_f123]

thats what the snow was forecast earlier at 9.00am on the last forecast it was around that black line ive drawn!!!

[SP1986]

Sorry but now having seen the forecast from Rob M, there is no change from earlier really. I thought when people said a 50 mile move south, they were genuine, if you can ignore these calls, nothing much has changed from the 10:35pm forecast just a bit of pre-event jitters I think.

[chilly milly]

Temp and Dew Points currently rising here. Temp now -3.5C and Dew Point -4.6C

Think I'm off to bed, before I get too despondent.

[Nick F]

Just waiting for the 12am radar- looking for another easterly vector-

Worrying time for those on the periphery to the North-

dont hit the self destruct buttons just yet- but i have tried to warn people with the word SOUTH in nearly every post....

S

Good call Steve, I had an inkling when John Holmes mentioned the larger pressure drops over the SW rather than over Ireland in the N-W Forecaster's Forum earlier, that the trough's energy is going East/ESE rather than NE that the GFS has been keen to show. Still a good chance that Midlands will get a pasting as the occlusion stalls during tomorrow, and perhaps more emphasis along the M4 corridor and SE for heavy snow aswell.

[West is Best]

I'm sorry, but anyone who is "bitterly disappointed" obviously didn't follow the models and forecasts over the past several days. The event is playing out almost bang on. Remember, this is the weather we are watching, anything can happen, so for the models to have pinned this within a hundred miles or so from a long way back, well done.

Er fair enough but this has the one gigantic assumption - namely that the rain will actually turn to snow or, if it does, that it won't fast turn back to rain. Temps are lifting ahead of the ppn, which has to be a worry. There is definitely mild air in the wrap. Even surface temps only a degree or so above freezing may not necessarily produce snow.

By the way, the rain hasn't exactly been heavy here either ...

[Noctilucid]

ha ha

And the 'smart people on this place' too

Aww cmon metcheck arent that bad!

Joe

[terry g]

The gritters have been out in SE london temperture 1.1c

cloudy

about to see the updated weather foecast missed last one

hopely snow still on track for london

[SMU]

Yeah Steve you were right aobut that much, mind uyou its not a bad thing for our location, so I won't moan!

As you wanted to know the radar shows the front now alinged to the WNW-ESE, tilting is happening way faster then expected, northerly extent is going to be dragged even further south, so main risk zone moves into S.Midlands ans the south now if this trend continues, also noteable dry slot still there and growing, not great but you cn clearly see the two main frontal systems.

By the way Stee, do you think we should watch for any morebeefy cells going up like the one near the channel islands?

If latest trend continues, then climatology wins against the models, proves just how een now the models can get it wrong!

Worse for Midlands, better for the south is the way to veiw latest set-up, though stil lnot bad for S.Midlands.

Kold look at the eastern flank its running ahead a LOT faster than the Western portion- major inflection going on-

Things are going crazy-

the 130 radar is going to be worth waiting for -

this going right to the wire peoples-

S

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Don't lose hope because of one BBC forecast downgraded things a bit.

They havn't changed the online forecast... yet.

06:00

09:00

Best way to follow this is the NW radar not BBC

Edited February 8, 2007 by multi cellular thunderstorm

[Lynxus]

Radar looks great!!!

that radar is a joke!

It just backs up the whole idea of a flop!, If you check any animations, it looked goot to start with now, its gone! the front isnt even moving north anymore!

[SP1986]

Kold look at the eastern flank its running ahead a LOT faster than the Western portion- major inflection going on-

Things are going crazy-

the 130 radar is going to be worth waiting for -

this going right to the wire peoples-

S

Steve there was meant to be a trajectory change, it was setup to happen all along, then it would move due north, nothing sinister it's going the way it was meant to.

[kold weather]

Hi Nick, intresting to hear aobut that, I suspected something might be up whenthe front started to pivot about an hour ago a good 6hrs ahead of what the models were expecting.

As for the beeb forecast, it has downgraded the stength of the front and also has it taking longer to get further north tohugh its not hugly different from the forecats before I suppose.

Steve, yeah this is going to be extremely intresting, I did say earlier that the models may under-estimate the polar high a little and in these tight set-ups that can make the difference, this is going to turn out to be a very intresting night indeed and probably an all0nighter for myself, our location has had a large upgrade over the last few hours!

Edited February 8, 2007 by kold weather

[philcoles]

Hello all again,

Wine starting to kick in!

To get the best idea of events that will transpire in any one location you need to do some simple local observations! - technology and especially radar are great - however - temp, changes in air pressure and outside observations of cloud cover (by day you could watch the different cloud movements). These obs will give you better chance of predicting local events.

BTW - Southend looks like period of showery sleet/snow - followed by rain at around 4am!

[Lukey]

its began snowing in cardiff.... not heavy, but its the first snow of the season here

[shrike]

We have to remember Rob M is using the charts infront of him from hours ago we have the privelage of people on the ground at certain locations givin us a minute to minute account of the situation!

[PB22]

Hmmm, this front is moving eastwards pretty fast, but is really struggling to make much northwards movement at the moment. Keep the word "south" in your heads guys and gals!