06z model discussion - snowing now and what after?

[BrickFielder]

Look out for low pressure developing over the Med towards the end of next week. This will take the southern arm of the jet stream south and encourage higher pressure towards scandinavia. The Uk then becomes the battle ground for cold and mild air.

Expect high pressure to build over northern Canada and Greenland and for low pressure over the north Pacific. In the Atlantic I expect to see low pressure off the eastern seaboard of the US with ridges forming and breaking down mid atlantic and it is here that I think the models are not picking up the correct detail.

Untill the end of next week enjoy the mild wet and windy weather next week (Especially Sunday) and for those who get some snow today enjoy it while it lasts.

[nick sussex]

Looks like a chance of a good cold spell will be leaving us soon..

Cold air being shot back into the Artic..

So long farwell Winter 06/07 the yet another snowless winter here

Is Ireland the worst place in the northern hemisphere for snow at that latitude, I think it is! Matty I'm afraid if you want the chance of seeing decent snow in the winter you're going to have to up sticks and move. The trend in the models is in fact to backtrack from any long term milder weather and given they've under estimated the strength of the block to the north and east and continually keep trying to take the jet further north and as we've seen come the day the tendency is for the jet to be placed further south which has already happened today. Good chances of a much colder second half of February with pesky mild mush more than likely being consigned to the dustbin by the models as we head into the weekend.

Edited February 9, 2007 by nick sussex

[PB22]

Looks like a chance of a good cold spell will be leaving us soon..

Cold air being shot back into the Artic..

So long farwell Winter 06/07 the yet another snowless winter here

Sorry, but that is quite frankly a ridiculous statement.

[Matty M]

-->

QUOTE(Paul B @ 9 Feb 2007, 12:18 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sorry, but that is quite frankly a ridiculous statement.

Why so?

The model outlook for the next 14 days is for mild unsettled weather to prevail

Come 2 weeks it will be the end of February and we will be into March. Winter will be over

Whats so wrong with my statement?

[Hagler]

Matty, the recent cold spell we have just had the charts showed us 10 days previous it would be mild, there is plenty time for things to change.....I think your just a little bitter as you banged on for days about how much snow you where going to get and guess what happened

Edited February 9, 2007 by Hagler

[Steady Easterly]

--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Paul B @ 9 Feb 2007, 12:18 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->Sorry, but that is quite frankly a ridiculous statement.

Why so?

The model outlook for the next 14 days is for mild unsettled weather to prevail

Come 2 weeks it will be the end of February and we will be into March. Winter will be over

Whats so wrong with my statement?

For a start thats for dublin, also there are strong signals of northern and eastern blocking prevailing.

[Matty M]

Matty, the recent cold spell we have just had the charts showed us 10 days previous it would be mild, there is plenty time for things to change.....I think your just a little bitter as you banged on for days about how much snow you where going to get and guess what happened

Didn't bang on for days about nothing.

Read the charts they said snow for here... Didn't happen

Surely todays low which has spilled much further north than anticipiated is further example that the block to the north is not so strong as everyones suggesting.. People seem to be looking at charts which all say a return to mild unsettled weather and picking 1 good point out of them and say all the bad points are wrong!!

And i live in Dublin Steady Easterly... your point????

[Weather-history]

--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Paul B @ 9 Feb 2007, 12:18 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->Sorry, but that is quite frankly a ridiculous statement.

Why so?

The model outlook for the next 14 days is for mild unsettled weather to prevail

Come 2 weeks it will be the end of February and we will be into March. Winter will be over

Whats so wrong with my statement?

Look at the scatter at the towards the end, can you say for definite its all over?

I don't know what it is with some of our Irish members recently, we had January snowstorm yesterday saying the whole of Ireland was in the milder air when infact a large section wasn't.

Edited February 9, 2007 by Mr_Data

[yido]

Matty surely you saying winter is over living in Cork is like Tamara saying winter is over in Poland living in Kent. Although we may live in the same country(ish) that doesn't mean what you receive weather wise is going to be anything like what happens here.

If you're not getting snow it pretty understandable considering where Cork is and the chances are is that is the way it is going to be for the foreseeable future.

[Frosty.]

Is Ireland the worst place in the northern hemisphere for snow at that latitude, I think it is! Matty I'm afraid if you want the chance of seeing decent snow in the winter you're going to have to up sticks and move. The trend in the models is in fact to backtrack from any long term milder weather and given they've under estimated the strength of the block to the north and east and continually keep trying to take the jet further north and as we've seen come the day the tendency is for the jet to be placed further south which has already happened today. Good chances of a much colder second half of February with pesky mild mush more than likely being consigned to the dustbin by the models as we head into the weekend.

Wow Nick that sounds optimistic, are you really that confident that after a brief mild interlude across most of the uk that colder air will advance south westwards? Hope you are right because it will keep shetland cold for many days to come..

[Iceberg]

To be fair to Matty it's a model thread and that's what the model is showing. Whether you want to believe it or not is an entirely different matter.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

To be fair to Matty it's a model thread and that's what the model is showing. Whether you want to believe it or not is an entirely different matter.

Indeed, but has he ignored the change the last four GFS models have shown? FI is FI and really the next FI will show something different. It isn't worth just reporting on a single run and calling winter on that, no one will learn anything. Looking at all the charts and seeing changes or consistencies allows a picture to be built with likely outcome. FI can never be ascertained with any confidence from one run...and that seems to be Matty M 'fault' which is being picked up on. For sure those ensembles will change several times over this weekend alone.

BFTP

[Yozzer]

Wow Nick that sounds optimistic, are you really that confident that after a brief mild interlude across most of the uk that colder air will advance south westwards? Hope you are right because it will keep shetland cold for many days to come..

Frosty, Hi. The UKMO Fax at T132 certainly does seem to suggest just that. Interestingly the constant light easterly flow here in inland Aberdeenshire has given us 4-6" of lying snow for the past couple of days. Perhaps with that in mind, Matty may care to join us here now that his winter is 'over?'

[Downburst]

Look at the scatter at the towards the end, can you say for definite its all over?

I don't know what it is with some of our Irish members recently, we had January snowstorm yesterday saying the whole of Ireland was in the milder air when infact a large section wasn't.

It's reasonable to group observations into cold outlook or average outlook or mild etc. I don't check to see what nationality the poster is? Maybe it's just NW is for English people?

Matt, for a young man of your age I think your posts and observations are excellent. Perhaps try to be a bit more dispassionate about the models.

[Optimus Prime]

The GFS only shows really mild air moving across the UK 120 hours away.

[Big Bear]

The 06z London Ensemble has some support for an Easterly commencing around 19th!!

Not a lot of support at the moment, however a couple more runs jumped onboard since todays 00z.

What does everyone think about this and can anyone post a link where I can view other european ensembles?

Edited February 9, 2007 by Big Bear

[Frosty.]

Frosty, Hi. The UKMO Fax at T132 certainly does seem to suggest just that. Interestingly the constant light easterly flow here in inland Aberdeenshire has given us 4-6" of lying snow for the past couple of days. Perhaps with that in mind, Matty may care to join us here now that his winter is 'over?'

Hi Yozzer, We have had a slight snow cover since tuesday night which i'm happy about. The dew points are lower so even with 5°c it is not all melting, just a slow thaw. I think Aberdeenshire will get more snow, especially on higher ground over the next few days but when the precipitation reaches across the sea to shetland it will be rain sadly. I'm hopeful that the scandi high will build and force the colder air back south over the uk after a milder interlude this weekend.

[nick sussex]

Wow Nick that sounds optimistic, are you really that confident that after a brief mild interlude across most of the uk that colder air will advance south westwards? Hope you are right because it will keep shetland cold for many days to come..

I don't really see any warm up for you up there Frosty as the models are being over progressive. The models at T-72 as weve seen over the last week have continually been taking the jet too far north and then have changed at the much shorter timeframe. The pattern change across the usa in terms of the breaking down of the pacific ridge is likely to take the energy into the southern arm of the jet and as we have pressure wanting to build to the ne this indicates the formation of the scandi high with this trying to back the cold sw wards.

Take for example todays fax chart for 132hrs , note here the scandi high trying to extend a ridge sw wards, what happens if the models prog the low in the atlantic wrong and place this too far north as they have been doing! And also note here the pressure on that low to run more south on the gfs at 156hrs.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack4a.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.html

If pressure continues to build over scandi a cut off low is likely to form and run east se into france. NOAA have low confidence in any model solution at present, the model that has hardly been slated this week is the ukmo, the gfs has been severely criticized and the ecm has also come in for criticism, although the ecm does verfiy as normally the best model this is done on the whole northern hemisphere, at the moment its been hopeless for our neck of the woods and has been overly progressive even more so than the other models.

I'm pretty confident that we'll see some interesting model developments over the coming days. Stay tuned!

Edited February 9, 2007 by nick sussex

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Of interest have just been on the accuweather site and ran the video forecast. The Pacific has woken up and is sending storms into California. They are tracking storms across the US and there are three forecast over the next 2 weeks. Points of interest are

1 the southern arm in the US will be the driver

2 the southern and northern arm converge around the Carolinas into the Atlantic

Take a look at the video and the 'forecast' tracks of the storms....how will that affect us?

Well here is Joe B's thoughts and seem to be mirroring a lot of thoughts...his theory behind it seems soild to me.

BFTP

BACK AND FORTH SPRINGS FORTH.

The destruction of the el nino is being completed now and that means we have to watch the action of the weather very closely over North America and the atlantic for the threat of a development of a SUSTAINED winter pattern for Europe mid Feb into mid March The NAO which has been positive much of the winter, and this was forecasted by the British met center, may lock negative for a 2-3 week period. This is known as a mechanically induced negative NAO, brought about, much like the el nino this year, by atmospherically driven events rather than the feedback of ocean to air. The collapsing el nino was in line with the severe el nino winter periods that we have seen in North America. Over 30% of el ninos produce the kind of weather they have going on now. Because we have the warm ocean west of the continent, the affects of that are blunted here and we go into a back and forth pattern, coldest over the east and south. The theory of the winter idea here was that the turn to colder over North America would occur and force a very cold mid and late winter. I was late there by a couple of weeks, I thought it would be underway by the 10th and it took till between the 20th and 30 th to get established. One notices thought that since 20 Jan there has been some winter showing up.

But now lets review the rest of the theory. The cold coming off the continent and the last of the el nino jet should cause plenty of storminess in the western atlantic next week. With he arctic oscillation now negative this will force storms under, rather than through Greenland and the threat is that from the 15h on, the NAO, which tried to go negative in Jan does so and stays so for a few weeks, in which case much of the continent will have by far the toughest weather of the winter.

I want it made clear, it is not the NAO driving the pattern, it is the pattern driving the NAO. The seeds for this were planted with the collapsing of the neg SOI back in December and the theory was well laid out in advance. Arguments that will come forth that the turn to colder was because of a flip of the NAO, if that is the case, are wrong as this was the tail, not the dog, that wagged. However in late winter and spring it feedback on itself and can take control, but the mechanism that started it was very different from the kind of NAO that "caused" it to get cold. How can you tell 1) the set up for why this could happen was explained long before hand, laid out and though late has occurred over the states 2) It is getting cold before it happens. That being said once it does happen, given the players on the field now, it can extend the winter season well into March and have people grumbling about it, and I believe that is where this is going.

I am working on the situation here where posts are erased, leaving the screen blank. I leave a post on if I like what I have written to some extent but I am very sorry for the technical difficulties that have caused such embarressments

Edited February 9, 2007 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[grab my graupel]

Indeed, but has he ignored the change the last four GFS models have shown? FI is FI and really the next FI will show something different. It isn't worth just reporting on a single run and calling winter on that, no one will learn anything. Looking at all the charts and seeing changes or consistencies allows a picture to be built with likely outcome. FI can never be ascertained with any confidence from one run...and that seems to be Matty M 'fault' which is being picked up on. For sure those ensembles will change several times over this weekend alone.

BFTP

Yes I agree with that,

What the models show on a particular run shouldn't be taken at face value,

and certain other factors should be taken into concideration.

How many times have we seen a way exagerated deep low appear in the atlantic for it

to be downgraded nearer the time.

Also blocking to the North East has been way underestimated.

I still believe a little more time is needed to see how things pan out,

but I think there are enough signs to suggest that saying the Atlantic is coming back

at full steam is being a little short sighted.

Brian.

Edited February 9, 2007 by grab my graupels

[Frosty.]

I'm pretty confident that we'll see some interesting model developments over the coming days. Stay tuned!

Thanks for that nick, I will keep my fingers crossed that the cold air hangs on up here and that the scandi high builds even further to enable the colder air to once again spread sw to the rest of the uk. I have seen very little snow up here but hopefully that will change in the weeks ahead.

[grab my graupel]

Thanks for that nick, I will keep my fingers crossed that the cold air hangs on up here and that the scandi high builds even further to enable the colder air to once again spread sw to the rest of the uk. I have seen very little snow up here but hopefully that will change in the weeks ahead.

Hi Karl,

It certainly is going to be worthwhile keeping a close eye on the models for you in the coming

days.

With snow predicted for this weekend and a chance that colder air never gets far away from

Scotland at all.

It has been so hectic on the board this week and the models in my opinion are as interesting

as they ever have been.

All this inconcistancy and chopping and changing is really making model worthwhile.

I still strongly believe there is still enough time left to turn this winter into a memorable one.

Anyway I hope things pan out the right way and you get a few good dumpings during

the weeks ahead.

Brian.

[Glacier Point]

Huge uncertainty continuing in the short term in any number of areas making longer range outputs of limited value.

One thing looks a good bet - Atlantic lows - but the key aspect would appear to be how far into Germany and beyond these depressions manage to undercut the Scandinavia block. If we continue to see undercutting, this will set up the kind of evolution shown by the GFS 06Z which provides some backing to last night's ECM at the t240 range for height rises from Scandinavia towards southern Greenland:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2281.html

GP

[Frosty.]

Hi Karl,

It certainly is going to be worthwhile keeping a close eye on the models for you in the coming

days.

With snow predicted for this weekend and a chance that colder air never gets far away from

Scotland at all.

It has been so hectic on the board this week and the models in my opinion are as interesting

as they ever have been.

All this inconcistancy and chopping and changing is really making model worthwhile.

I still strongly believe there is still enough time left to turn this winter into a memorable one.

Anyway I hope things pan out the right way and you get a few good dumpings during

the weeks ahead.

Brian.

Hi Brian,

Thanks, I have had my fingers crossed that you would get a decent snowfall, you deserve it after your many optimistic posts this year. The current prognosis suggests that the mild air will not reach this far north during the coming week, there will be a moderate risk of wintry showers into next week up here with perhaps some general snow just about reaching me on sunday night. Next week will hopefully see the cold air filtering back sw'wards across the uk after a disappointingly mild end to this weekend.

[grab my graupel]

Huge uncertainty continuing in the short term in any number of areas making longer range outputs of limited value.

One thing looks a good bet - Atlantic lows - but the key aspect would appear to be how far into Germany and beyond these depressions manage to undercut the Scandinavia block. If we continue to see undercutting, this will set up the kind of evolution shown by the GFS 06Z which provides some backing to last night's ECM at the t240 range for height rises from Scandinavia towards southern Greenland:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2281.html

GP

I must say I rather like the sound of that G.P.

Just goes to show that uncertainty can be a good thing.

I think this board would go into meltdown if that came off

Brian.