06z model discussion - snowing now and what after?

[North-Easterly Blast]

I do not know about an upgrade. According to the models next week looks largely unsettled with average to slightly above average temps - the cold ends this weekend and its back to milder weather - but not the exceptional mild of early to mid January.

In the longer term, GFS has improved slightly from yesterday's runs showing the Scandy High making attempts to influence the UK from around 216-240 onwards, and UKMO does at 144, and has reverted somewhat away from the Bartlett idea, although a number of ensembles still develop a Bartlett, so it still does not look very inspiring for cold lovers in the longer term, so the GFS is still toying with the idea that we will get a mild Bartletty mid to late February. ECM is also rather poor later on as a weak Bartlett develops around the 192 mark.

[willitbsunny]

Its raining steadily here now in South East Wales - Temps seem too high for snow. Wind from the NE

Edited February 9, 2007 by willitbsunny

[nick sussex]

Overall a mixed picture this morning from the models, the gfs keeps a messy looking picture in the earlier timeframe with milder air into southern areas but the north always remaining on the fringes of something a little more interesting. The ukmo builds pressure to the ne at 144hrs, the ecm right the way through is awful in all honesty.

However I will put this link up from yesterday from NOAA who basically have low confidence in any model solution particularly the gfs at the moment. There is a tendency for pressure to want to rise to the ne and whilst this still remains then I wouldnt view anything in the later timeframe with too much confidence.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[pureasthedriven]

I know the latter challenge is far beyond any Canadian civil servant, but I had perhaps held the people of the land of my birth, of Shakespeare, Newton, Dickens et al, in higher regard, something I continue to do on balance after my two years in this new project, but with the reservations you could infer from the above post. But not to worry, unless booted out of here for doubleplusungood thought, I shall be here in my little corner, with BFTP as my sword carrier, praised be his name for being such a forthright fellow (although he thinks more highly of my theory than I do at times.) :blink:

Very dignified stuff Roger. You keep it going my son!

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Well, upto T+120, all three major models (ECM, GFS and UKMO - Four including the GEFS) have a good agreement synoptically.

The only major difference is the amount of cold wrapped up in the low pressures approaching the UK. The GFS and UKMO are fairly similar (with the UKMO having an ever so slightly colder air setup), but the ECM seems to go for something colder than the other two.

Will be an interesting run of models over the next 7-10 days. I for one am not 100% convinced that this will be the end of the winter.

The CFS however does seem to be hinting that Feb may remain on the average to above average side, but with another colder plunge towards early March. The CFS is available on Net-Wx Extra :blink:

[Wynn D Woo]

Its raining steadily here now in South East Wales - Temps seem too high for snow. Wind from the NE

Unlucky its snowing here just 5 miles further east.

I think the models are being a bit too progressive and the high though retreating wount be long to nudge back south and west.

[Frosty.]

Looks like turning milder everywhere by Monday sadly, what a pity... :blink: Saturday's snow looks confined to scotland and the lake district and another mix of wintry precipitation across scotland on sunday but mostly for higher elevations. Any snow will melt away quickly across southern and central britain this weekend with the cold air clinging on for it's life across the far north east. The very cold air remaining to the north east of the uk and it might edge back. :blink:

[TEITS]

Interesting 0Z's this morning and there are two ways of viewing them. You could say overall disappointing because this isn't much in the way of cold being shown on any model output. But on the flip side of this the theme of heights developing to our NE have grown on the 0Z this morning.

The UKMO hints at this at +144.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

So does the GEM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1801.gif

So does the 0Z GFS

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.png

Now the key IMO of model watching is to try and learn now models handle certain synoptic situations. We have all seen how the models do tend to underestimate blocking to our N/NE and is always too progressive in bringing a return of the Atlantic. Our current cold spell is a very good example because it should of turned milder by Wed and here we are discussing todays/weekends snow possibilities.

So what I shall be following over the next few days is will this blocking to our NE continue and will this retrogress towards us. The GEFS does have one member showing this on the 0Z.

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-9-1-240.png?0

So to sum up no sign of a cold spell but this is certainly subject to change!.

[mushymanrob]

things are looking to me like a pretty 'normal' february type run. february can often be dominated by no strong synoptic, giving us alot of cool, grey weather.

snowlovers dont get greedy, youve just had your dose for this decade! lol.

[nick sussex]

At the moment there is quite a big change taking place over the east pacific with a breaking down of the ridge there, the pacific jet is however unlikely to be strong though with energy being pumped into the sub tropical jet, because of this type of pattern you're always more likely to see pressure trying to increase over scandi and to the ne.

So the models will always have difficulty in deciding how far north and east low pressure will get with everything grinding to a halt near the uk, in a sense this is whats been causing the recent model problems, however the atlantic will make a more successful attempt to get in this weekend and into next week, IMO it will win in the south but for northern areas especially scotland this isnt such a certainty.

Edited February 9, 2007 by nick sussex

[Tigers]

At the moment there is quite a big change taking place over the east pacific with a breaking down of the ridge there, the pacific jet is however unlikely to be strong though with energy being pumped into the sub tropical jet, because of this type of pattern you're always more likely to see pressure trying to increase over scandi and to the ne.

So the models will always have difficulty in deciding how far north and east low pressure will get with everything grinding to a halt near the uk, in a sense this is whats been causing the recent model problems, however the atlantic will make a more successful attempt to get in this weekend and into next week, IMO it will win in the south but for northern areas especially scotland this isnt such a certainty.

Hi Nick,

Would that explain Met Office press release yesterday? Could it be they have been studying this carefully too?

[nick sussex]

Hi Nick,

Would that explain Met Office press release yesterday? Could it be they have been studying this carefully too?

I think everyones reading a little too much into this statement as I think they were talking more about the shorter term. It all looks every messy this weekend but any snow this time favours more northern areas with a chance of something substantial over the pennines and towards scotland. But in this type of pattern small detail is likely to change quite quickly. Southern areas look to turn milder and I cant see a backtrack here, the more difficult forecast is for more northern areas as the colder air is likely to be harder to shift up there.

After this we are likely to see a series of lows heading in from the atlantic and become slow moving near the uk as they battle against higher pressure to the ne. If I had to give a punt here the ukmo further outlook today will go for unsettled weather with average to milder temps in more southern and central areas but with a hint that northern areas may occasionally see some colder interludes.

Edited February 9, 2007 by nick sussex

[PB22]

The 06Z GFS continues to give the trend of pushing these lows further south in the short-medium term timeframe, and whilst milder air does get into the south, that cold air is never too far away in the northeast.

[TEITS]

Low pressure taking a much more S,ly route compared to 0Z.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png

This period between +168 to +240 is certainly worth watching and I don't believe for a second the models have the correct solution yet.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Agree; the Scandinavian blocking high is becoming a consistent feature at around T+120 and, by analogy with 12 March 2006, may well be harder to shift than the models are currently showing.

Again, if we got an easterly from it, there's a reasonable chance of such an easterly giving rise to sunshine and wintry showers, rather than dull dry weather, for much the same reasons as why northern areas are getting plenty of showers from this SE'ly.

[nick sussex]

Just a little more interest perhaps developing in the later timeframe as the gfs 06hrs run follows the 00hrs aswell as the ukmo by increasing pressure over scandi at 144hrs.

The key here is this chart does the low get forced se as pressure builds to the ne.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.html

Perhaps we're approaching yet another important fork in the road as to where the rest of february will go.

[TEITS]

Well the 06Z takes us from a E,ly to a S,ly within 24hrs.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

Step in the right direction is the way I view the 06Z.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I must admit the models are showing this evolution quicker than expected. The return to milder conditions next week I described a few days ago was 'less cold' because temps will be around average and this time of year average is fairly cold. This started yesterday with the 12z and each subsequent run has improved so from 12z today worth watching from. What we see is the LPs 'undercutting' the Scandi ridge which is precisely what we want to see, I believe GP has alluded to that too. We have to accept the less cold weather but with Lps striking the south of the UK interesting weather will occur and Scotland and even far NE could have a time of it. Much model chopping and changing..probably but lets see if the progression over the last four runs continues...who knows there may be a stable succession of runs as they hone in to this idea.

Roger nice piece! With regards to supporting your theory I know that when folk read it again and relative to my earlier post and comparing it to how feb is progresing what the general thoughts will be. The Uk I believe is far more fragile to deal with than the US or continent and so in its infancy its pretty darn good mate. The only real mistake like you mention is using 1987.....as unique as 47/63.

So the outlook....fun for the far north and Scotland this weekend...unpleasant rugby conditions, come on Wales...less cold but stormy next week, blocking holding to our north and building to our NE and forcing a southerly track of the LPs. Beyond that and all up in the air...but a more prolonged cold shot is knocking on the door IMO

BFTP

Edited February 9, 2007 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[chilly milly]

Thats a good read BFTP, hopefully someone will open that door and let the cold in one fail swoop without it seeping through in bits and bobs.

[Weather-history]

What do you make of this FAX chart at 132 hrs?

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVP89.TIF

[Weather-history]

What do you make of this FAX chart at 132 hrs?

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVP89.TIF

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

What do you make of this FAX chart at 132 hrs?

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVP89.TIF

Similar to what the 06z GFS has to offer. I think those Lps will slip ESE.

BFTP

[nick sussex]

What do you make of this FAX chart at 132 hrs?

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVP89.TIF

Thats very interesting as that scandi high looks like building but that low in the atlantic is a worry, they certainly seemed to have dismissed the ecm operational run, if we can get a cut off low then its game on! The ecm seems the odd one out today and given the fact that its been pretty hopeless during the last week and continually slated by NOAA then perhaps things could develop, the gfs has also been slated, this all this ties in with NOAA who have low confidence in the models at present, the model that has had hardly any criticism is the ukmo and for this reason things look a little more hopeful this morning.

[Thundersquall]

The 06Z GFS run indicates the possibility of an easterly with even a Channel Low,

from around T+174 hours (next Friday 16th February).

[Matty M]

Looks like a chance of a good cold spell will be leaving us soon..

Cold air being shot back into the Artic..

So long farwell Winter 06/07 the yet another snowless winter here