06z model discussion - snowing now and what after?

[nick sussex]

A poor trending UKMO with atlantic low pressure trough controlling the outlook and heights to the north fading next week as well.

Tamara

Yes its the positioning and orientation of that atlantic low that really scuppers things at 144hrs, at the moment the models look strangely in agreement for events upto 144hrs! and we were getting used to all the drama, how boring of them!

[EastLothianSnow]

So its looking good for the weekend for my area in East Lothian then!? We had about 1cm of lying snow last night but its all melted through the day with temps near 5 degrees and a mixture or rain,sleet and snow showers! Hope to see some decent snow cover over the weekend then for a change! Ive mentioned this once or twice in a few posts before but i am planning on driving up to Fort William on sunday - is my journey likely to be affected by the snow? I mean, is the band of snow going to have pushed up into the highlands by early afternoon on sunday? I plan to leave about 10am and hope to be up and away through the highlands before the weather gets too tricky!

[Snowyowl9]

Saturday may bring more heavy snow to parts of central and northern England, inland Wales, and then into Scotland where it could last through Sunday in northern and central portions. These warm fronts will be very slow-moving and also intensifying through the weekend.

Would expect also a transitional zone with sleet, some freezing rain and mixed snow, rain between two warm fronts likely to develop about 50-100 miles apart. So by Saturday evening the snow should be pushed north of about central Wales to Rugby to Peterborough with that other feature limiting it from there north to about the higher parts of Newcastle and Sunderland and towards Edinburgh. At this time the sleet and freezing rain should be across parts of the Severn valley, Thames valley,

Thanks for that Roger.

I never saw the 6z run was making the most of the snow, but what I can see of the 12z is Saturdays low is further south to yesterdays run so another upgrade as far as I can see.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn481.png

Liking the look of the fax chart there Nick, we`ve still got the easterly flow just UKMO is further north than yesterday meeting halfway it seems.

Be great to get 2 more days to keep the snow fields and get some more drifting to go out with a bang on Saturday,but today`s been fab with 3 inches with drifting earlier.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW48-21.GIF

[D KARLSON]

Thanks for the advice yesterday ian drove all the way to cirencester just on the edge of the cotswolds booked in to a local in and a few bevvies and went to bed .

Next morning awoke to about 3 to 4 inches of snow and the kids loved it cheers !!!!!

[HellyHanson]

saturday chart

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/charts/uk/atl...sure_070210.jpg

[disco-barry]

God the models seem crap, please god upgrade the charts.

Db.

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

The latest fax chart for midday saturday still looks interesting for northern areas, could be a bit more model drama left this week.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack1.gif

Ah yes,

Next push of cold air coming down through Scandi already on the fax

[MKN]

saturday chart

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/charts/uk/atl...sure_070210.jpg

Backs up there forecast just now, still looks good going by what they say for a large area of the uk to at least see snow for a time on saturday I think the timing of this 1 will be crucial though given how marginal it could be

Edited February 8, 2007 by SnowTornado

[wellington boot]

Just to point people in the direction of the AO forecast. It looks like a positive lurch is agreed upon, but how far positive it goes still rmains up in the air, and they also all see, to agree that after the positive encroashment it turns sharply downwards again. So perhaps not too many weeks of zonal flow, even if the current scandi high wint hold up:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CW...ex/ao.sprd2.gif

[TEITS]

Backs up there forecast just now, still looks good going by what they say for a large area of the uk to at least see snow for a time on saturday I think the timing of this 1 will be crucial though given how marginal it could be

No this is the latest chart for Sat.

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/fax/PPVI89.png

Expect the BBC chart to change to that.

[MKN]

No this is the latest chart for Sat.

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/fax/PPVI89.png

Expect the BBC chart to change to that.

Either looks good for snow here at least for a short while anyway which is more than i could ask for now after todays snow

[kold weather]

That beeb chart is very intresting though the updated fax charts show a very complex set-up, rain for the south, snow for the Midlands and snow heading northwards, if anything while far more marignal it has more scope for heavy snowfall then this set-up due to the number of fronts thats involved, a real mess!

The Lp's really are having a hard time getting through at the minute, though it will eventually but it takes a 190kt jet streak to do so!!!

By the way the AO forecasts are going too far positive at the moment IMO, expect the truth to be around neutral before a very sharp drop off towards the end of the month.

Edited February 8, 2007 by kold weather

[TEITS]

That beeb chart is very intresting though the updated fax charts show a very complex set-up, rain for the south, snow for the Midlands and snow heading northwards, if anything while far more marignal it has more scope for heavy snowfall then this set-up due to the number of fronts thats involved, a real mess!

The Lp's really are having a hard time getting through at the minute, though it will eventually but it takes a 190kt jet streak to do so!!!

I think that sums Sat up perfectly KW a real mess.

Seems the general pattern is the snow moving N Sat then this becoming confined to Scotland on Sun.

Next week certainly does look milder with all models agreeing to this but for some reason I have a little niggling doubt in my mind that it won't be as straight forward as the models are showing and I certainly don't agree with some of the mild outlooks in FI!.

[January Snowstorm]

Not too many Irish faces on here at the moment.

It isn't surprising when you consider the let down yesterday.

It looks mild now for a week at least and most likely longer

Enjoy your snow UK

[Duane S.]

saturday chart

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/charts/uk/atl...sure_070210.jpg

While you northerners will be getting a few hours of snow, I will be getting absolutely drenched looking at that Fax!

I've been looking at the models grasping for something to give me hope and there isn't a lot. Rule out anything next week cold-wise, the atlantic is simply too strong for that block which is a shame as it seems to be developing into something quite decent. I'm hoping that height rises to the NE combined with a slowing jet will give us our next shot at it. Just need that slow-motion LP to shift its butt SE first !!

I would look at the weekend of the 18th as when things could start getting interesting again.

[North-Easterly Blast]

The 12z runs are out on both GFS and GEM, and they are both not very inspiring to say the least after this weekend. Both are stinkers in the longer term with a Bartlett at the end of GEM and a Bartlett later in GFS, and most ensembles bring in a Bartlett at 240 for much of the rest of the run, so I am dreading the fact that winter could be over after this weekend. In the medium term 168-240 although not very inspiring GFS still shows that northern blocking never really declines but then is truly awful after that. What does anyone else think? Although the Met Office expect further cold spells during the remainder of winter it looks as though a potential Bartlett will nail the coffin.

[nick sussex]

The models seem agreed but do they have the right solution! It looks like the atlantic will win out next week but NOAA have basically slated all the models and again especially the gfs with low confidence in this. Heres the link.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

Theres basically low confidence in any of the model solutions at present.

Edited February 8, 2007 by nick sussex

[Snowly does it]

The 12z runs are out on both GFS and GEM, and they are both not very inspiring to say the least after this weekend. Both are stinkers in the longer term with a Bartlett at the end of GEM and a Bartlett later in GFS, and most ensembles bring in a Bartlett at 240 for much of the rest of the run, so I am dreading the fact that winter could be over after this weekend. In the medium term 168-240 although not very inspiring GFS still shows that northern blocking never really declines but then is truly awful after that. What does anyone else think? Although the Met Office expect further cold spells during the remainder of winter it looks as though a potential Bartlett will nail the coffin.

Could do indeed but given the last few days I think we need to see rather more consistent output from the models for a few days before they have the rest of Feb nailed.

I think thisweekend has yet to be firmed up and the further south things are shunted the better for that blocking etc.

[tinybill]

i know thingscould change but looking at gfs at 384 hr with all that cold air over america is that coming our way it looks like it could easily could

[The Eagle]

Looks like a return to the start of the winter, synoptically, just around the corner. At this stage if full zonal weather comes back it could conceivably see the rest of winter out. Hope not though!

[TEITS]

Looks like a return to the start of the winter, synoptically, just around the corner. At this stage if full zonal weather comes back it could conceivably see the rest of winter out. Hope not though!

After reading the link that Nick provided I am holding off commenting too much on the models because it seems they are null & void. A case of waiting for them to find the correct pattern IMO.

[nick sussex]

After reading the link that Nick provided I am holding off commenting too much on the models because it seems they are null & void. A case of waiting for them to find the correct pattern IMO.

Given what they've said about gfs and its poor grasp of the upstream pattern then it looks like they've slated it the most once again, this doesnt mean the atlantic wont win this battle it just gives a little hope that there might be something different thrown up over the next few runs. Anyway that link certainly helped me live in denial for a while longer!

[karyo]

The ECM looks bad also. It gives rising pressure to the south and mainland Europe and low pressure to the north. Let's hope things change soon because I have better expectations from February especially after the winter update (met office) earlier this week.

Karyo

[Andy Bown]

The 12z runs are out on both GFS and GEM, and they are both not very inspiring to say the least after this weekend. Both are stinkers in the longer term with a Bartlett at the end of GEM and a Bartlett later in GFS, and most ensembles bring in a Bartlett at 240 for much of the rest of the run, so I am dreading the fact that winter could be over after this weekend.

Kold posted earlier today that, 10 days ago when today was at T240 range, it showed a Bartlett scenario!

[wellington boot]

By the way the AO forecasts are going too far positive at the moment IMO, expect the truth to be around neutral before a very sharp drop off towards the end of the month.

It's interesting you should say that, as it is my instinct too that the AO should keep negativ or max neutral, and if anything pulse more neagative after a short rise towards positive values. But it is only an instinct, a hunch, based on trends i have observed in the devlopment of the AO previously, and I have no real evidence to suggest that this will be the case, when most of the ensemble members are taking the AO somewhere quite positive, at least for a while.

So Id be interested in why you think it will drop off. This is not a challenge, just genuine interest. I'd like to know if you have better reasoning behind that opinion than i would have.

Regarding the models, Im taking them with a pinch of salt beyond even 100 at the moment. Not to say that FI is necessarily at 100, but the situation is very complex with numerous factors for the models to get a grasp of, and even subtle changes in the 100 hour timeframe have the potential to completely turn around what happens later. And with uncertainty over the AO (uncertainty from my point of view at any rate), I think there are a wide variety of outcomes possible after, perhaps even during, the nxt week or so.

I feel that the key lies in where the AO will go, so im going to be watching it closely for any emerging trends.