06z model discussion - snowing now and what after?

[PersianPaladin]

Another thing that has stood out to me this winter when viewing the models,

and a significant difference has been the lack of eye candy this winter.

I remember last winter where at least we would see something tasty in F.I. only

for it to disappear when it approached a reliable timeframe.

Is this to do with the programming of the models or a change in the Synoptics,

what do you think P.P.

To be honest mate....I have no idea.

Perhaps it could be due to a multitude of teleconnectional factors......including the anamalous warming of summer 2006 which certainly didn't help.

Edited February 9, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[andy_leics22]

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QUOTE(Paul B @ 9 Feb 2007, 12:16 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hi Andy, there is certainly the chance of some further snow during the times you mention, but I suspect it will turn quite quickly to rain during Saturday morning.

Thanks for the feedback Paul, much appreciated We will have to see how the models handle it tomorrow, would be nice to have a few hours of decent snow falling before it turns to rain, better than rain from the start!

[grab my graupel]

It is notable that we are facing the juncture that GP spoke about a couple of weeks or so back as a possibilty regarding pressure rises to the north and the arrival of winter proper in Scandinavia and northern europe generally but us still stuck in mild south westerlies courtesy of mid/western atlantic trough with the proper cold easterlies just out of grasp. On the cusp - so relatively near yet so far.

Tamara

Yeah that seems to be the story of the winter so far.

It's always been an if only winter, where everything appears to be coming together,

then something comes along to ruin the setup.

It's a bit like my football team who always let in a goal in the last minute.

[PersianPaladin]

I think this excellent post sums our winter up quite well: -

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...st&p=917203

[andy_leics22]

I think this excellent post sums our winter up quite well: -

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...st&p=917203

Thats post of the year candidate already in my eyes

[grab my graupel]

I think this excellent post sums our winter up quite well: -

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...st&p=917203

That's Brilliant I hadn't seen that I'm glad you pointed that out!

I agree, that has got to be post of the year.

We should ask Paul to pin that, as a warning to us weather watchers.

Edited February 9, 2007 by grab my graupels

[wellington boot]

It's always been an if only winter, where everything appears to be coming together,

then something comes along to ruin the setup.

Im not really sure thats an accurate description of our winter generally this year. Its a better description of last year, where we ended up seeing quite a bit of serious northern blocking, but the synoptics just wouldnt fall quite right, and with the hard part done we ended up with an unremarkable winter.

This winter, weve never really been close till recently, and now its delivered. Its worked out just as it should now, and previously, we just had zonality zonality zonality. Nothing really seriously suggested we would get anuthing good at any point.

[Roger J Smith]

While I don't like engaging in what some might call bickering, I feel I should have my turn at the microphone after the exchange of views about my LRF in this thread.

By the way, the LRFs are easy to find -- they are in the archives, seasonal forums, first item. And my forecast leads off that thread, so 'ave a look and see who you think is closer to "the truth" -- WIB or BFTP.

I am used to making LRFs, seeing them as a percentage of accuracy when the time is up, and moving on to another one. I am not as some have falsely asserted an "astrologer" just because I believe that solar system magnetic field sectors interact with our atmosphere. I did not give the planets their funny sounding names either; were it up to me I would call them more noble names and drop Uranus for Herschel as some used to campaign for.

Reading these assessments makes me think that we are in a period of severe cognitive dissonance, and it's rather like the AGW arguments that go all or nothing when probably the reality is that the global climate is warming for both natural and human-induced reasons. The proportions can be debated and are not well understood; the recent UN panel muddied the waters in my view by saying they were "90% sure" of human contribution (I am 100% sure) but knowing probably full well that most people and the media would wrongly interpret that as 90% human-caused.

As to my LRF for this winter, it is a bit like that "date with the blonde" except that I'm willing to say that I'm still in the flat and I haven't called a cab.

Read my forecast and ask yourself this -- is this really a random stab in the dark using plausible outcomes as a substitute for any real agenda, and if you can get past that objection, is my agenda really that far off, as WIB constantly wants to insinuate (even my unquestionable details are elsewhere dismissed as mere climatology). The forecast speaks of a mild zonal December, a stormy start to January, a colder turn with chance of snow, blocking that I would admit developed slower and with less intensity than assumed (blame the 1987 analogue that was in the data set), and then February is rather as BFTP states, quite close to reality at least the way I read reality.

Since this snowstorm today (yesterday then) there has been something of a flurry of posts designed to downgrade the forum's perception of what happened, reminding me somewhat of a scene from 1984 where Big Brother's agents tour some unlucky neighbourhood (Netweather in this imagery) and warn the docile citizens not to think the wrong thing, or else (AGW might not receive its due, I suppose is the "or else" here).

Strong words, eh, but I've rather held my peace while various people have seen fit to dump OTT and distorted criticisms on me, all the time where my forecasts have been doing reasonably well in a variety of time frames. On balance, I receive a lot of encouragement too from NW members, despite the fact that by my sheer location not to mention the alternative research, I stand to be somewhat outside the pale for some. I often get PMs or thread comments that state that I am making a positive contribution here, otherwise I would not bother as some of the more established members here have made faces through my Windows more than once, and really, who needs the aggravation when one knows that one is doing reasonably well at something pretty difficult.

Sure, in any LRF there are going to be false steps, for example, in January although I think I had a fairly good handle on the pattern evolution, I was not able to assess accurately how the parts would blend together into a CET value. However, my critics seek forgiveness for 24-hour reversals while quoting any 60-day stinker they can find in my warehouse, while at the same time finding any or all ways to dismiss the rest of the stock, whatever the actual quality.

I have found some of this quite distorted, and please note, I do not engage in this practice myself -- on the contrary, I would give plenty of my fellow LRF posters rather high marks on all sorts of details they spotted, predicted, or came close to getting right in various cases. I have to assume that some of this rather distorted criticism is motivated by concern that my alternative methods might require a re-think of AGW, a return to the hated practice of intense study of difficult ideas (once we graduate, many of us hope we don't have to crack open the books again), and even the difficult task of reversing our views both privately and publicly.

I know the latter challenge is far beyond any Canadian civil servant, but I had perhaps held the people of the land of my birth, of Shakespeare, Newton, Dickens et al, in higher regard, something I continue to do on balance after my two years in this new project, but with the reservations you could infer from the above post. But not to worry, unless booted out of here for doubleplusungood thought, I shall be here in my little corner, with BFTP as my sword carrier, praised be his name for being such a forthright fellow (although he thinks more highly of my theory than I do at times.)

[MAF]

well said that man!!

[wellington boot]

What a piece of oratorical writing! Particularly at the end, with the reference to land of shakespeare and co. Emotive stuff! Anyway, you've got my support; I always read your posts with great interest, and am impressed by your reasoning, and also your willingness to stick your neck out and make bold, comprehensive forecasts, something it is very hard to do when one is so aware of the way the weather can change and surprise. It's something i feel i should start doing more in fact, as my experience and knowledge of weather gradually grow. As you say, we can learn from our mistakes.

Back on the subject of your post though, I would suggest that most people on here, even the biggest names, appreciate your contribution. We all know how disagreement can become faintly hostile on here, when opiniated members clash and believe strongly in their own judgement, so I would disregard anything you see as hostility or dismissiveness simply as competitiveness and self confidence gone wrong.

With regards WIB's comments, it's possible he misremembered your post or at least some of the specifics, as it was quite a while ago, or he may merely have been judging it more critically than is perhaps advisable with long range forecasts.

[PersianPaladin]

Im not really sure thats an accurate description of our winter generally this year. Its a better description of last year, where we ended up seeing quite a bit of serious northern blocking, but the synoptics just wouldnt fall quite right, and with the hard part done we ended up with an unremarkable winter.

This winter, weve never really been close till recently, and now its delivered. Its worked out just as it should now, and previously, we just had zonality zonality zonality. Nothing really seriously suggested we would get anuthing good at any point.

The winter has not delivered for those places most prone to snow in a north-easterly or easterly air flow. A lot have missed out that normally get snow in these occasions...e.g. Aberdeen, County Durham, North Yorkshire, Lincolnshire, etc. Places like these would normally see considerably more snow and colder temps from this sort of set-up. Stronger influence of Atlantic air, proximity of shortwaves from the west injecting milder air in as well as higher than normal SST's are adding to the marginality.

It remains for me, a Swearing AGAIN poor winter. Last winter was absolute heaven compared to this. At least it delivered (albeit still WAAY below what I expect up here) in terms of snow for me in December, February and then in early March.

This winter all I've had is 1cm of snow; and that barely lasted 2 hours. Lets see how long this fresh covering of 1cm lasts.......minutes counting down now.

Edited February 9, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[wellington boot]

The winter has not delivered for those places most prone to snow in a north-easterly or easterly air flow. A lot have missed out that normally get snow in these occasions...e.g. Aberdeen, County Durham, North Yorkshire, Lincolnshire, etc. Places like these would normally see considerably more snow and colder temps from this sort of set-up. Stronger influence of Atlantic air, proximity of shortwaves from the west injecting milder air in as well as higher than normal SST's are adding to the marginality.

It remains for me, a Swearing AGAIN poor winter. Last winter was absolute heaven compared to this. At least it delivered (albeit still WAAY below what I expect up here) in terms of snow for me in December, February and then in early March.

This winter all I've had is 1cm of snow; and that barely lasted 2 hours. Lets see how long this fresh covering of 1cm lasts.......minutes counting down now.

Your point is fair, but it still doesn't mean that the story of this winter has been so near yet so far. Its only been so near yet so far on one occasion for you. Because we havent really had at any other point this winter great charts only a short way out, only to be disappointed. As for us down here, there havent been any so near yet so far events. Just so far so far so far till today.

See everyone in the morning. Im off to bed to catch up on sleep.

Edited February 9, 2007 by wellington boot

[PersianPaladin]

Your point is fair, but it still doesn't mean that the story of this winter has been so near yet so far. Its only been so near yet so far on one occasion for you. Because we havent really had at any other point this winter great charts only a short way out, only to be disappointed. As for us down here, there havent been any so near yet so far events. Just so far so far so far till today.

See everyone in the morning. Im off to bed to catch up on sleep.

Twice actually.

The last snow event that gave Abingdon its first dusting of snow.....the belt of snow from Scotland passed right over me, fragmented and then exploded south of me. Infuriating.

[grab my graupel]

Im not really sure thats an accurate description of our winter generally this year. Its a better description of last year, where we ended up seeing quite a bit of serious northern blocking, but the synoptics just wouldnt fall quite right, and with the hard part done we ended up with an unremarkable winter.

This winter, weve never really been close till recently, and now its delivered. Its worked out just as it should now, and previously, we just had zonality zonality zonality. Nothing really seriously suggested we would get anuthing good at any point.

Yes I probably didn't make myself clear enough.

What I was trying to say was not that we have always been close to the ideal setup,

but as in getting on the road to the set up in the first place, aswell as been close to a

decent setup. e.g.

If only P.V would move out of Greenland, If only the Jet would dive South, if only we

had decent blocking, if only that low was further South,

I here what you say about Zonality but that was because the first part of winter, saw

the P.V. parked over Greenland and a raging Jet, and like you say no blocking.

Also the strong Euro high did us no favours either.

But since then everything has been transitory, with nothing able to establish itself

for long enough for any prolonged cold.

Edited February 9, 2007 by grab my graupels

[Roger J Smith]

Serenity now, rant over, mellow ... 947 mb low at 30W back at 00z according to Envirocan analysis based on nearly ship report (whoops said the captain, winds 60 knots). Juicy looking frontal wave near 48N 22W presumably the start of Friday night into Saturday's action.

Models will have trouble with this, I feel, slow-moving warm fronts are never that reliably modelled at 48-72h, and with the snow currently on ground in central England, initial set-up is bound to be well south of what raw data might suggest.

Off to look at the 00z GFS as it resolves this low.

[grab my graupel]

Is the colder air further South for Friday on this run, anyone?

[WhiteFox]

With respect to Roger, you've been pretty spot on for the North America forecast so far. February has been bone-chillingly cold for many areas. I enjoy all LRFs, and acknowledge that some people put a lot of work into them so keep it up.

Just awaiting a decent snowstorm for the East Coast to tie up the season nicely!

[grab my graupel]

Well after seeing the 00z. I'm not sure whether the Atlantic is going to

dominate for too long.

The cold air never seems too far away and appears to want to creep back in again later in the run at about t102.

I'm calling F.I. there and see what happens.

Edited February 9, 2007 by grab my graupels

[PersianPaladin]

Well after seeing the 00z. I'm not sure whether the Atlantic is going to

dominate for too long.

The cold air never seems too far away and appears to want to creep back in again later in the run at about t102.

I'm calling F.I. there and see what happens.

Good move.

I think we may see a return to some colder conditions come the latter third of the month.

[fuzion]

met office warnings out for snow south west wtf

[Iceberg]

Fair play to anyone who issued an LRF, IMO we shouldn't judge them until March, if at all....

This winter has been cr*p in both trends and synoptics for the UK, TBH we've been lucky to have the current event as it certainly has not occured though any kind of classic set up.

Back to the models.

The Scandy taking hold at 144-168 is probably only a 20-30% chance atm, fantastic possibilities if it were to happen.

ECM way to progressive and I seem to remember it had the same problem this time last year when they upgraded the resolution. I've heard talk that under the new res ECM struggles in spring, I also think this happened in 2005 when they ran it parellel before going live.

GFS is mixed but favours slightly more progression that the ops run. Meto is sticking to it's guns.

My thoughts are that we will miss out on this attempt due to a slight awakening and engaging of the Jet, PV doesn't come into it now.

But the high will only retreat so far and will come back a bigger brute on steriods for the half term week.

No real Greenland blocking this winter me thinks.

[snowmadchrisuk]

From looking closely at the 0z forecast, i'm starting to think that us in the east midlands could see some serious snow today if that front makes it as we are under -5 850's all day. bbc are making out the snow will only effect the west midlands but I find that hard to believe as the further east you are the more likely we will hang onto the cold air longer. anybody got any ideas? It is already snowing in bristol apparantly.

Edited February 9, 2007 by snowmadchrisuk

[carinthian]

Models showing signs of the cold block to our North is not going away with out a fight. Could be upgrades again today!

C

Models showing signs of the cold block to our North is not going away with out a fight. Could be upgrades again today!

C

Further to the above,signs that the Atlantic jet may be weaker and more fragmented than expected into next week.

C

[sdwill]

Referring back to Rogers post I'd just like to say that as a long time lurker on this forum I look forward to your posts as much as those from Optimus Prime, Steve M, Carinthian and John H. They are extremely well written and informative whilst also being objective.

Despite what the models are showing atm I think the northern block will take a fair bit longer to shift, temps here were -2C overnight, everything is frozen solid. I'm looking forward to a very very slow return to normal temps.

Susan

[The PIT]

Yes the 00 oz shows some upgrade and certainly looks if things could stay cold longer if the gods are with us. Fingers crossed.