06z model discussion - snowing now and what after?

[TEITS]

Just to let you know I shall be restarting my analysis on the GEFS ensembles for the period +168 to +240.

I found this a very useful excercise because the GEFS ensembles did pick out our current cold spell out during this period and despite the GFS downgrading our cold spell 5 days before upgrading it again the cold spell synoptically was actually closer towards the GEFS ensembles.

I shall look to see if a pattern emerges during this period and compare with what the other models show. Be warned though I shall continue to be honest on my analysis without any cold bias.

[J10]

Has anyone got access to MetO 18Hz run as the BBC are now forecasting snow for Wales tomorrow pushing up from the South.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Several people have kept repeating this in the last few days, but would you not expect at least a few of the ensembles to be picking up on this by now? I don't recall seeing anything in the past few days, apart from the odd glimpse in extreme FI.

I'm not saying it won't happen & there is definitely a logic to it with which I agree, I'm just puzzled that no ensemble member that I have seen has gone for it.

Dave

Dave

The ensembles are as reliable FI as the models. No changes are afoot upstream and so even to really look beyond this weekend model wise we will see many different solutions. However, a more stormy and less cold picture is probably correct. Watch over the next 5-7 days the different scenarios that will be produced. By next week Wed/Thurs the pattern change will be set and the models then will pick up on it. Have a read of posts made in the indepth model discusion where GP and Brickfielder and Kold Weather have made posts and also look out for Steve Murr, they will explain the teleconnection changes. My money is on Roger J Smith, his winter LRF described this Feb to a T but the posts are no longer on view. More cold to come...the 18z is defo hinting at the evolution

BFTP

Be warned though I shall continue to be honest on my analysis without any cold bias.

Disappointing

BFTP

[davehsug]

Dave

The ensembles are as reliable FI as the models. No changes are afoot upstream and so even to really look beyond this weekend model wise we will see many different solutions. However, a more stormy and less cold picture is probably correct. Watch over the next 5-7 days the different scenarios that will be produced. By next week Wed/Thurs the pattern change will be set and the models then will pick up on it. Have a read of posts made in the indepth model discusion where GP and Brickfielder and Kold Weather have made posts and also look out for Steve Murr, they will explain the teleconnection changes. My money is on Roger J Smith, his winter LRF described this Feb to a T but the posts are no longer on view. More cold to come...the 18z is defo hinting at the evolution

BFTP

Disappointing

BFTP

Hi BFTP, thanks for that, I am an avid reader of all the posts in the in depth area, which is why I see the logic. I am just surprised that a few ensemble memners weren't alluding to it occasionally.

Dave

[TEITS]

Has anyone got access to MetO 18Hz run as the BBC are now forecasting snow for Wales tomorrow pushing up from the South.

Here we go.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Just a quickie tonight on the ensembles but overall very disappointing between +168 to +240.

There are quiet a few varying synoptics with some hints of height rises to our E but overall the pattern is the complete opposite to what we want. What I mean by this is HP building to our S and with the Jet moving N with LP systems tracking along Iceland. What this bascially means is a mild, unsettled outlook with the majority of rainfall over N UK.

However with NOAA thinking the models are handling the upstream synoptics wrong this could mean the ensembles mean nothing, but I wouldn't discount them either.

[West is Best]

My money is on Roger J Smith, his winter LRF described this Feb to a T but the posts are no longer on view. More cold to come...the 18z is defo hinting at the evolution

BFTP

Disappointing

BFTP

Fred, even Roger in his most searingly honest moment would have to admit that he did not get this to a T in his LRF. Many have been the forecasting casualties this winter - some great, some less so. We all pick ourselves up and learn from our errors. It only becomes an issue if someone claims a success when in reality it's complete humbug to suggest as much. So don't go there.

Writing this is probably a lost cause though. There are those who will claim mystic power when the tail lands on the donkey's I have a problem; even though they've had 50 attempts to get it in the right place already.

Looking at the models, an interesting situation developing. Not all northern blocking is a good thing, as we saw in the autumn, and this is not the first time we have seen FI charts showing extremely mild southerly potential. But then, I expect I'm bound to see that!

Edited February 8, 2007 by West is Best

[TEITS]

Looking at the models, an interesting situation developing. Not all northern blocking is a good thing, as we saw in the autumn, and this is not the first time we have seen FI charts showing extremely mild southerly potential. But then, I expect I'm bound to see that!

To be fair though Richard that is exactly what the GFS is showing . You know how much I love the cold but realistically the GFS is prediciting the complete opposite of what I want and that is mild or dare I say it very mild outlook!.

I know some may not like my honest style but I feel my posts cannot be questioned when giving a realistic honest appraisal of the models.

[PersianPaladin]

I honestly think F.I. is T60 at the moment.

I am likely to be very wrong.....but we shall see.

Edited February 8, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[West is Best]

To be fair though Richard that is exactly what the GFS is showing . You know how much I love the cold but realistically the GFS is prediciting the complete opposite of what I want and that is mild or dare I say it very mild outlook!.

I know some may not like my honest style but I feel my posts cannot be questioned when giving a realistic honest appraisal of the models.

OK, well in fair play reciprocity I would say that were it not for the pacific jet pattern (alluded to by Ian Brown) then I'd say we were tantalisingly close to something serious. It must be a bit agonising for you to see a whopping Scandi high that might not deliver? Or will it ...?

[davehsug]

OK, well in fair play reciprocity I would say that were it not for the pacific jet pattern (alluded to by Ian Brown) then I'd say we were tantalisingly close to something serious. It must be a bit agonising for you to see a whopping Scandi high that might not deliver? Or will it ...?

Now then WIB, contrition can only be taken so far you know That had better be a Homer Simpson style "or will it...?" 'cos if it isn't......

Dave

[TEITS]

OK, well in fair play reciprocity I would say that were it not for the pacific jet pattern (alluded to by Ian Brown) then I'd say we were tantalisingly close to something serious. It must be a bit agonising for you to see a whopping Scandi high that might not deliver? Or will it ...?

The sight of that Scandi HP certainly is a tease.

You know since I joined this forum I still haven't seen what I would call a true cold synoptic set up like in our good old days and it is this that im always on the look out for.

Let's hope that blocking can come this way and let's hope the Jet which has scuppered many a cold spell in recent times allows this to retrogress. I agree with SF and yourself the reason for the absence of these true classic cold spells is the SST'S in around GIN sea area and the position of the Jet. I would much prefer these synoptics in Dec/Jan and if they are going to occur during the next few weeks we are going to need plenty of deep cold and a lack of sunshine to bring anyting noteworthy.

Edited February 8, 2007 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[andy_leics22]

I would just like to ask if any of the forecasters on here could give me an idea of what to expect between midnight and 6am on saturday morning?

By looking at the models I could see sleet/snow when the band pushes into my area but then turning to rain later in the day on Saturday, I'm far from an expert though.

[West is Best]

Now then WIB, contrition can only be taken so far you know That had better be a Homer Simpson style "or will it...?" 'cos if it isn't......

Dave

lol.

My confidence is shaken! I really thought the temps wouldn't yield snow this morning ... so I'm not my usual self. Truth to tell, since starting my new job I've not found the time to study the synoptics so I haven't got a clue what's going on until I look at them properly (maybe this weekend).

Dave, I know what you mean about a real set-up. But they're very rare, and I think in this day and age something like last night/today is going to keep most peeps on here pretty much content.

[PersianPaladin]

The sight of that Scandi HP certainly is a tease.

You know since I joined this forum I still haven't seen what I would call a true cold synoptic set up like in our good old days and it is this that im always on the look out for.

Let's hope that blocking can come this way and let's hope the Jet which has scuppered many a cold spell in recent times allows this to retrogress. I agree with SF and yourself the reason for the absence of these true classic cold spells is the SST'S in around GIN sea area and the position of the Jet. I would much prefer these synoptics in Dec/Jan and if they are going to occur during the next few weeks we are going to need plenty of deep cold and a lack of sunshine to bring anyting noteworthy.

I would like to see the return of something similar to Feb 1991.

But it isn't going to happen. SST's, warmer mid-level air, steeper and more northern temp gradients and recurrence of positive NAO conditions refuse it.

[TEITS]

I would like to see the return of something similar to Feb 1991.

But it isn't going to happen. SST's, warmer mid-level air, steeper and more northern temp gradients and recurrence of positive NAO conditions refuse it.

I still think these synoptics are possible it's just rare and they weren't that frequent in the good old days but did occur more often.

Personally im hoping for a freakishly cold summer, Gulf stream to shut down, massive volcanic eruption and then hopefully we should have a good winter next year

[davehsug]

Just looked at the ensembles for Manchester. Is a 13c 850 really possible for a date as early as 21st Feb? By the usual calculations & given some sunshine that would give anything up to 23c? maybe a month later, but who knows in this crazy weather world.

The Dailx Excess will have it as a headline within 3 days!

DAve

[PB22]

I would just like to ask if any of the forecasters on here could give me an idea of what to expect between midnight and 6am on saturday morning?

By looking at the models I could see sleet/snow when the band pushes into my area but then turning to rain later in the day on Saturday, I'm far from an expert though.

Hi Andy, there is certainly the chance of some further snow during the times you mention, but I suspect it will turn quite quickly to rain during Saturday morning.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Looking back on today's weather, this was a very lacksture event compared to those of the late 70s and mid 80s. Snow falling but giving far less cover than would have been the case 20+ years ago, with the snow fizzling out as it reached Yorkshire giving only a dusting to the higher parts and almost no cover to lower ground. Back in the 1977-87 era, today's pattern would have given significant widespread snowfall.

Well, 18z is out but is still uninspiring after this weekend throughout the mid to long term. Next week certainly looks milder, but only slightly above average and not the exceptional mildness we had in early to mid January. The GFS 18z in FI for the 12th+ run in a row does develop a very mild southerly flow but this time some sort of Scandy High but keeps us on the wrong side of it with us stuck in mild southerlies, and is pretty awful for cold weather fans at least up until very late FI. A Bartlett remains a strong possibility according to the ensembles with many members going for it from around the 18th. The operational run progs a 13*C 850 and looking on the postage stamps a repeat of the exceptional warmth of mid Feb 1998 or possibly late Feb 1990 certainly does look an outside possibility and cannot be ruled out with one or two members suggesting this, and very few members suggest anything cold developing after mid-month.

Going against the UKMO forecast, the coffin could be nailed and will be if a Bartlett develops.

[grab my graupel]

Well it's back to the models again after all the excitement of the Snow,

or should I say lack of it.

Friday night into Saturday looking Good for Snow for Scotland and far north of England.

Further South for my area more likely to fall as sleet IMO.

Cold slips away from Britain by Sunday where we see a return to milder conditions

and a return to a more stormy picture as the jet flattens and powers back in.

The big question is will we see a return to the colder weather or will the Atlantic continue

to dominate.

Height rises to the North and East and disagreement from the models suggest to me

that nothing is certain and a little more patience required before any clear patterns

start to emerge.

Still confident we will see a change back to a blocked pattern, which will start to

become clearer with further runs.

Best not to look too far ahead at the moment.

Brian.

[PersianPaladin]

Looking back on today's weather, this was a very lacksture event compared to those of the late 70s and mid 80s. Snow falling but giving far less cover than would have been the case 20+ years ago, with the snow fizzling out as it reached Yorkshire giving only a dusting to the higher parts and almost no cover to lower ground. Back in the 1977-87 era, today's pattern would have given significant widespread snowfall.

Mate....it was lacklustre compared to the early nineties. Never mind the 80's/70's.

[tom_f123]

Mate....it was lacklustre compared to the early nineties. Never mind the 80's/70's.

well i was very pleased indeed with this event, considering i hardly had a cm on the ground at about 8.00am and by 6pm had 13cm with 17cm drifts! i no its nothing compared to those days but it was the most ive saw for a long time perhaps ever! in my location anyway

[grab my graupel]

Mate....it was lacklustre compared to the early nineties. Never mind the 80's/70's.

Actually didn't some parts of Yorkshire get a good covering,

I might be wrong but I thought some people mentioned it today.

[PersianPaladin]

well i was very pleased indeed with this event, considering i hardly had a cm on the ground at about 8.00am and by 6pm had 13cm with 17cm drifts! i no its nothing compared to those days but it was the most ive saw for a long time perhaps ever! in my location anyway

That's a pretty good snowfall there mate. What I was saying however....that back in early nineties and prior to then; these sorts of synoptics would've delivered not only a good deal more snow to locations in the east and central regions; but the cold would've lasted longera and showers heavier and more frequent. An overly active jet, anamalous SST's and other factors have thrown quite a bit of warmer air into the mix - helping to make the situation marginal and the amount of snowfall very varied from region to region. Generally, a lot more would've fallen back then; particularly in prime areas like the hilly areas of north-east England or the Lincolnshire wolds.

Actually didn't some parts of Yorkshire get a good covering,

I might be wrong but I thought some people mentioned it today.

'Good' for the inland\hilly parts of North Yorkshire is 15cm+

I don't think any got that amount in that region.

Edited February 9, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[grab my graupel]

Just looked at the ensembles for Manchester. Is a 13c 850 really possible for a date as early as 21st Feb? By the usual calculations & given some sunshine that would give anything up to 23c? maybe a month later, but who knows in this crazy weather world.

The Dailx Excess will have it as a headline within 3 days!

DAve

I can't see that happening Dave,

I would say that it is far too far out to be suggesting those sort of temps,

or a Bartlett set up for that matter.

I think you only have to look how suddenly the last two cold spells appeared on the

models. I think a lot can change before then.

Edited February 9, 2007 by grab my graupels

[grab my graupel]

'Good' for the inland\hilly parts of North Yorkshire is 15cm+

I don't think any got that amount in that region.

Another thing that has stood out to me this winter when viewing the models,

and a significant difference has been the lack of eye candy this winter.

I remember last winter where at least we would see something tasty in F.I. only

for it to disappear when it approached a reliable timeframe.

Is this to do with the programming of the models or a change in the Synoptics,

what do you think P.P.