Met Office winter NAO forecast...

[Turnedoutniceagain]

What you have to remember though, is that if the Atlantic SST set-up we have now, was replicated in winter, the jet stream would be a lot further south than it is now. I mean, the jet stream has generally been further south than it should be, but its summer, so it'll never be *that* far south. But in winter, I believe it would be a lot further south, and so the Azores High would also be a lot weaker and northern blocking, much more stronger.

That's the key to it all Gavin, keep that pesky Jetstream way to the south of us. Let that arctic air flood in...mmmmm....

[ScandiHigh]

Early indications for Winter 2007/8 (December, January and February)

Temperature

Last winter was exceptionally warm over much of Europe and the second warmest on record for the UK. The signal from the statistical method suggests winter 2007/8 is likely to be less mild for Europe as a whole than 2006/7. For western Europe, including the UK, indications favour temperatures less mild than last year, but still above the 1971-2000 normal.

Rainfall

Above-normal precipitation was experienced over the UK last winter with 130% of the long-term UK average. Early indications suggest that Winter 2007/8 is likely to be closer to normal.

---

Very disappointing IMO.

[Anti-Mild]

Very disappointing IMO.

Indeed!

I had expected them to go for a more negative value than they have but they have given an error range of 1 either way so they could get it wrong.

IMO, they are playing it safe. Also, I don't understand how they can still predict a weakly negative NAO signal and yet still predict above average temperatures.

[Gavin P]

Yeah, the MetO obviously not as impressed with developments as most of SST watchers. Cooler than last winter, but milder than average. Very surprised and disappointed. But, if thats what SST's are poitning to, then thats what they are pointing to. We've got to remember that SST's have gotten better as they have gone along. If the Met based their forecast on SST's now, it would point to a very negative NAO winter, IMO, but they don't. They use May, and May's SST's, were not as condusive as the ones we see now, so maybe its not a surprise the Met have gone weakly negative....

[Stu_London]

I believe they update the forecast from time to time so it will be interesting how it develops.

[Glacier Point]

UKMET appear to have a different interpretation of SSTAs than those NCEP ones we;ve been using:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/seaso.../nao/index.html

The main difference as I see it is around Newfoundland. UKMET have a bit more warmer water just south whereas the NCEP reanalysis suggests a bit less warm.

Either way, -0.34 isn't bad.

[Gavin P]

Also, in May warm SST's south of Greenland were much less intense than they are now, IMO.

[VillagePlank]

They use May, and May's SST's, were not as condusive as the ones we see now, so maybe its not a surprise the Met have gone weakly negative....

I think that's because the May SST's are statistically the most significant. And this is, dare I say it, a statistical forecast ...

[Don]

Very disappointing. It was going to be unlikely that they would predict a Winter as mild as last year, but to be honest, given our current climate, this forecast doesn't surprise me that much. All we need is a warm September now and the writing will be clearly on the wall for Winter 2007/08 IMO.

:lol:

[PersianPaladin]

Four words: Too early to tell.

[Damien]

Four words: Too early to tell.

If the forecast had been for a negative NAO and cooler than average conditions over Western Europe this winter the story would be: "They are the Met Office! They know best!... Etc....".

At least a cooler than average September is on the cards now in some of the charts - but again September 2005 turned out above average, costing us our winter once again.

Anyhow, I'm happy at this forecast. Justifies and makes my impending move to Scandinavia/the French Alps that much better. :lol:

[TEITS]

As many on here know I would love to see winter like 63 but if I was honest I find looking at the current SSTS as a waste of time when looking for signs of this oncoming winter.

There are many reasons for this which I shall explain.

(1) SSTS can change.

(2) The NAO is only one variable amongst many of what dictates our weather patterns.

(3) The AO.

Now in recent winters the positive phase of the AO is one of the reasons for the lack of N Blocking. Now the NAO doesn't dictate the state of the AO but the phase of the AO can dictate the state of the NAO. Suppose this coming winter continues to see a positive AO surely this will override any signs for a negative NAO.

I shall continue doing what I have always done when it comes looking for signs of this winter and that is wait until October/November to see what is happening in the stratosphere, SST's, and more importantly the trends of the synoptics at that time. I often have found that when it comes to blocking this sometimes shows it hand during the Autumn months and if you look back at some of the archives for those famous winters you will see the trend towards blocking was present in the Autumn months. What we don't want is endless LP systems passing to the N of the UK throughout the Autumn months and IMO a few anticyclonic spells will be a good omen for us.

[NorthYorksWeather]

Totally agree there Persian, people shouldnt get there hopes up too high as anything could change in the next few months

[Lettucing Gutted]

Very disappointing. It was going to be unlikely that they would predict a Winter as mild as last year, but to be honest, given our current climate, this forecast doesn't surprise me that much. All we need is a warm September now and the writing will be clearly on the wall for Winter 2007/08 IMO.

:lol:

Even worse. There is something that looks like a weak El Nino signal developing in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific with waters slightly above average near Peru...

[Turnedoutniceagain]

As many on here know I would love to see winter like 63 but if I was honest I find looking at the current SSTS as a waste of time when looking for signs of this oncoming winter.

There are many reasons for this which I shall explain.

(1) SSTS can change.

(2) The NAO is only one variable amongst many of what dictates our weather patterns.

(3) The AO.

Now in recent winters the positive phase of the AO is one of the reasons for the lack of N Blocking. Now the NAO doesn't dictate the state of the AO but the phase of the AO can dictate the state of the NAO. Suppose this coming winter continues to see a positive AO surely this will override any signs for a negative NAO.

I shall continue doing what I have always done when it comes looking for signs of this winter and that is wait until October/November to see what is happening in the stratosphere, SST's, and more importantly the trends of the synoptics at that time. I often have found that when it comes to blocking this sometimes shows it hand during the Autumn months and if you look back at some of the archives for those famous winters you will see the trend towards blocking was present in the Autumn months. What we don't want is endless LP systems passing to the N of the UK throughout the Autumn months and IMO a few anticyclonic spells will be a good omen for us.

A good injection of common sense there TEITS. Judging by the METO's recent record, as a betting man, I'd "Lay" their predictions rather than "Back" them !!! This summer being the latest upset.....

[johnholmes]

I believe they update the forecast from time to time so it will be interesting how it develops.

they do indeed and their previous updates are atill available, at least back to last year, possibly further if you search hard enough.

[Michael Winston]

Hi Mike

There is a thread open in the lounge :lol:

Lets hope that things stay on course through the rest of the summer and autumn. We all have 'been here' before and there is time for things to change as we know !

Tamara

Hi, Tamara.

Sorry I missed replying to you yesterday - cats and kids got in the way!

Couldn't agree more with you, although I notice that TEITS' post today will keep my feet firmly on the ground. However, where's the harm in optimism? (I'm not saying TEITS is being pessimistic, by the way - just realistic: a quality I discard at the first hint of anything wintry!)

Kind regards to you both,

Mike.

[kold weather]

Well the May signal wasn't perfect but the met office goes for an average of -0.34 but its okay, its far from super negative that the June SST average would suggest and I'm a touch surprised that the NAO is as positive as forecast I have to say but GP may well be right about the different SSTA maps being used...The hard thing though is that what do the Met office forecast for each month, because while they average -0.34 it may be the case that two months are positive with the other having a very -ve month, you just can't tell!

IF the met office used June's SSTA then I'd be confident that the figure would be at least twice as negative.

As for the phrasing of them expected an above average winter, i think the NAO forecast has actually had nothing to do with this but comes down to two factors:

1: The above average temps we've seen recently and GW---makes it very hard for them to forecast a below average season

2: The Met-office long range model is STILL trying to give one of the strongest La Nina's in record and what that does is effectively seal the deal for an above average winter in terms of temps, rare is the month that is below in strong La Nina. However I'll say this now with some confidence...the UKMO is WRONG with this idea, I know some will say that it could happen and you can't assume. but the SSt's in that region would have to drop 2-3 times faster then any other summer in history!

So not nearly as impressive as was expected, the NAO signal is however negative which is a positive, esp given we all know that the signal for June/early July has only improved so we can assume that the chances for a -ve NAO do look fairly good right now.

If you want a close match to the NAO, look at 1986-87 which had an overall NAO of -0.29...also the -0.34 would be the most -ve NAO since 95-96 IF that is correct and so while on the face of it it isn't that impressive its not a disaster either, esp given the the QBO signal and the part of the solar cycle we ar in plus the probability of a weak La Nina all would bode well for the winter, the met-office won't go for below average temps because its not common now days but we've a strong hand right now.

These are closest to what the met-office forecast right now for the NAO:

1969-70

1997-98

1986-87

1952-53

1996-97

1955-56

1958-59

With the exception of 97-98 the rest gave at least one fairly decent winter month in terms of temps.

Edited July 12, 2007 by kold weather

[damianslaw]

But wasn't it only two years ago that they were confident of a below average winter, so it is wrong to suggest that the METO will never forecast any below average seasons.

I am hoping for a cooler autumn than we have had for many a year can't remember the last really below average autumn, at least that will help to lower sea temperatures and perhaps set us up for a early cold spell just in time for christmas. It would be good to see a disturbed Septmember quickly replaced by an anticyclonic October. Can't think about winter too much just yet, lets think about the Autumn first! I'm beginning to loose hope with this summer so my thoughts are naturally turning to Autumn right now much much earlier than in previous summers-quite refreshing really...

[summer blizzard]

But wasn't it only two years ago that they were confident of a below average winter, so it is wrong to suggest that the METO will never forecast any below average seasons.

I am hoping for a cooler autumn than we have had for many a year can't remember the last really below average autumn, at least that will help to lower sea temperatures and perhaps set us up for a early cold spell just in time for christmas. It would be good to see a disturbed Septmember quickly replaced by an anticyclonic October. Can't think about winter too much just yet, lets think about the Autumn first! I'm beginning to loose hope with this summer so my thoughts are naturally turning to Autumn right now much much earlier than in previous summers-quite refreshing really...

Yes, however they went for a value of -1.1 that time, taking into account global warming, the rougth correlation between the NAO and winter temperature would support a above average outcome.

I also believe we will see a below average Autumn, or a below average first half at least, however there has been no link found between a warm October and a cold winter.

However, a link has been found between the October NAO state and that of the following winter overall, so for a negative NAO winter, in something like 70%+ of the time, the NAO state was the opposite of October, though this could explain the warm October, cold winter theory, though i would prefer both Seotember and October to be below average.

[summer blizzard]

After looking at the latest data and anologues, it looks like we will see a strengthening La Nina this winter, 80% chance of weak La Nina values during December, 100% during January and February.

[shuggee]

Have never looked through the La Nina and El Nino pages of the Meto Site before - and what an interesting read they are. Which led onto this page and the 4-6month ahead (Sep-Nov) 2m temp anomalies ensemble mean forecasts. Very interesting.

[Lettucing Gutted]

I am hoping for a cooler autumn than we have had for many a year can't remember the last really below average autumn,

We haven't had a cold autumn since 1993...

[Gavin P]

1996 had a cool September and a cold November.

[Iceberg]

Well the first NAO forecast is out today from the meto and they go for -0.34 for this coming winter, so pretty neutral really.