Convective/Storm Discussion early to mid June (merged)

[mettalfabrik]

its gone darkish here but nothing to report however

Flash warnings of severe weather

These are issued when severe weather is expected in the next few hours.

Local areas affected Warning type Valid from Valid to

South West England: Bath + NE Somerset

Bristol

N Somerset

Somerset

Heavy Rain 1552 Sun 10 2100 Sun 10

Heavy showers are expected to continue across parts of North Somerset and Bristol for the rest of this afternoon and into the evening, the Mendips most at risk of seeing rainfall totals of locally 30mm or more. The public are advised to take extra care and refer to the 'Highways Agency' for further advice on traffic disruption on motorways and trunk roads.

Issued at: 1552 Sun 10 Jun

[Andy Bown]

That warning highlights high ground (Mendips) and similarly Salisbury Plain seems to be breeding showers for the second evening in a row. Very dark sky to my E/NE and it looks like they're going to pass just NE of Westbury again. Makes for a dramatic sky because the sun is shining too :blush: .

Lightning in the showery band in the English Channel, earlier forecasts showed those showers edging into the far SW overnight. That trough likely to head slowly NE tomorrow so I guess there's a chance of it triggering thundery activity given the residual and daytime heat/humidity.

[kaz]

hi well just got back again from a huge hike over exmoor and can tell you at the moment there is not a cloud in the sky it has been hot and very humid all day now as yesterday it has gone hazey cant see anything stormy at all... Apart from theat huge splot coming over the channel havent looked at it properly yet to see what its going to do.. But have seen weather warning which finishes right on the border with me :blush: ...

kaz

[Supacell]

Anyone know if the CAPE over most of England tomorrow will get tapped into.

Tuesday looks good but i'm at work until 4pm and looks from the 12z that anything that develops will be dying away after 3pm so i'll probably miss out :blush:

Edited June 10, 2007 by Supacell

[Pixlet]

Whats with all that rain near france, in the water, i've seen it on the MetO radar all day, where is it going?

[kaz]

Whats with all that rain near france, in the water, i've seen it on the MetO radar all day, where is it going?

hi well i have had a look now and it looks to me if its going NW.. Going more towards Ireland DOH just a few showers now moving into the very very far South West again DOH... So close and yet so far...

kaz

[Snowyowl9]

Gone quite dark to the West here, have looked at the clouds and its all coming this way... does anyone know if its thundery?

Moderate to heavy shower here now from a clump of Tcu as the wind also changed direction to the SW as it arrived but no thunder heard since but it`s gone very errie looking.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar

[Andy Bown]

It's now raining properly for the first time this month, but only just enough to wet the ground.

Radar and sky suggests the heaviest of this shower has moved over Salisbury Plain and towards Warminster, it's not remotely thundery but there is that lovely fresh smell.

[Paul R]

it's not remotely thundery but there is that lovely fresh smell.

Mmmmmmm.....post shower rainy smell.

[A.J]

Interesting build up of cloud to my south in the English Channel......Large TCu development and it looks like anvils are starting to form....I didnt expect any development here tonight, I thought it would be over SW cornwall if anywhere...The clouds seem to be moving NW'erly.. well I'll keep my fingers crossed for a lightning display later on!

[chapmanslade]

It's now raining properly for the first time this month, but only just enough to wet the ground.

Radar and sky suggests the heaviest of this shower has moved over Salisbury Plain and towards Warminster, it's not remotely thundery but there is that lovely fresh smell.

Bone dry 3 miles away !

[Lightning Hunter]

So will this week be a disappointment thunderwise?

Met office/BBC being a bit vague with timings of rain etc, mentioning just 'scattered' for most days. Could be another dry week here?

[Andy Bown]

Bone dry 3 miles away !

Just like when a friend told me about the heavy shower at Hawkeridge yesterday evening.

It'll be your turn tomorrow evening, lol.

[alr1970]

It's not much to look at on the radar, but here in S Manchester it's just rained, quite hard for 10 mins and now lighter. No thunder but the drops had that melted hail look to them. Refreshing after the humid day we've had.

Andrew

[Paul R]

melted hail

That's rain isn't it? :blush:

[Costa Del Fal]

Rofl!

Not a Cloud in the Sky here but Tomorrow Evening to Wednesday Morning looks good for Thundery activity Here.

[Cookie]

Forecasters Warning

-- Heavy Showers & Thunderstorms--

Areas Affected: Southern England, Wales, Northern England

CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION:

There will be an increasing risk of a scattering of heavy showers and thunderstorms through the course of Monday and also into Tuesday.

Low pressure will continue to become more of a dominating feature of the weather as the new week progresses. Combining this with high surface temperatures and humidity will bring the risk of some heavy showers and thunderstorms.

The main areas at risk through Monday will be across the south Midlands into Southern England and perhaps through the spine of SW England. Central Wales along with Central regions of Northern England are also at risk. Sea breezes and convergence zones will play a significant part in aiding development through Monday afternoon.

Torrential rain, hail, frequent lightning and in association with light winds, flash flooding will all be possible.

FORECASTER : HUGO

---END---

Issued

10 June : 09:23:44 PM

Valid Until

11 June : 09:00:44 PM

Area Risk

High Risk : red

Moderate Risk : gold

Low Risk :blue

No Risk : grey

http://www.metcheck.com/DATA/FORECAST/WARN.../UK/WARNING.jpg

from www.metcheck.com