Convective/Storm Discussion early to mid June (merged)

[Supacell]

Skew-T for 18z in Cardiff quite interesting, with temperatures of around 21C it shows quite a modest amount of CAPE (500+J/KG), a LI of 0 and cloud tops expected to rise up to approx 23,000ft (if i'm reading it correctly).

Could be some storms then, especially if temperatures rise up higher than this.

[johnholmes]

with reference to my article on sea breezes and posts I made yesterday about the sea breeze and a convergence it set up during Saturday I have now added that to the article on sea breezes.

[Andy Bown]

Shower here now - big blobs but not amounting to much

Watched that develop on the edge of Salisbury Plain and it gave some drops here too.

It seems to have developed into quite a decent looking shower over Somerset now.

Yesterday's very dark clouds that lingered between 18-20.00 gave a heavy shower just 2 miles NNE from Westbury. A friend who lives in a village called Hawkeridge (between here and Trowbridge) told me it poured down there at about 18.30 .

[Snowyowl9]

Tcu here 30 mins ago to the south/SE which one quickly turned into a shower it`s very hazy today and very thundery feeling.

Looks like an interesting afternoon afterall.

[Costa Del Fal]

Thanks for the Info.

[Costa Del Fal]

Using Metchek's Cape and Li forecast i would Like to Point Out the Following Main areas are going to have some Very Unusual High Cape and Very Low Li. (900-1100) & (-4 to -5)

These are the Worst affected areas:

Birmingham

Worcester

Oxford

Bristol

Gloucester

Yeovil

I say watch out for Some Severe Storms with Everything mixed in!

Edited June 10, 2007 by Blizzards

[MP-R]

Been very black overhead with mammatus and scud. The first big drops are now falling but no thunder as of yet. Apparently, 2 miles east of me is having overflowing drains!

[Lynxus]

Cant see much happening here, Seems to be a cap on any convection .

[tornadomanuk]

Afternoon all, Its a lovely day here with NO cloud in sight , and can't really anticipate anything for today here.

The next few days could result in something so will have to wait and see

[MP-R]

Very heavy rain here!

[chapmanslade]

Shower to my south is really struggling to develop - I don't think there is enough strength to the convection to produce anything really significant, including any electrical activity. Meteosat suggests the cloud tops are not very cold (and so not really getting very high)

[MP-R]

That was a short-lived shower which is now passing to my northwest. Gone calm again now and the sun is trying to shine.

[Lynxus]

Very odd weather, not a single strike anywhere in the UK.

Even on normal days where nothing is expected i see at least a few,.

[dogs32]

not much here...short lived towers

http://www.isleofwightweather.co.uk/live_s...ta.htm..looking interesting in that area of france.sometimes they can drift up north over night.............well I can hope!!!

Edited June 10, 2007 by dogs32

[Lightning Hunter]

Anything over France is moving to the West of the UK generally, looking at sat loops, steered by upper flow.

Next reasonable chance for general thundery showers prob Tuesday IMO, but the BBC weren't keen to say the 't' word at all for the whole week.

[Costa Del Fal]

More Strikes around the South West and some on land, with the radar im using.

[disco-barry]

Just come back from the Charente area of France and this week....Wednesday i think, we had some good t-storms and on Sunday last week we also heard Thunder in the distance but it all but burnt up by the time it got to us.

[Paul R]

Just wondering whether the showers the latest radar outputs show over Central Wales is thundery or not. The fact that there's no discussion suggests just heavy showers, but seen as the met office have put a warning out I thought I'd leave a post.

[StormChaseUK]

Just wondering whether the showers the latest radar outputs show over Central Wales is thundery or not. The fact that there's no discussion suggests just heavy showers, but seen as the met office have put a warning out I thought I'd leave a post.

I can confirm I have heard thunder to the north of me over Newtown,.

[Lynxus]

nothing on the detectors..

[kentish_sally]

Hmm i guess it isnt as unusual as i thought to hit or exceed 900kj. Oops :blush:

[Lynxus]

Hmm i guess it isnt as unusual as i thought to hit or exceed 900kj. Oops :blush:

its all good.

Its just really annoying when you get high cape and low Li and nothing to trigger storms.

[tornadomanuk]

Those showers over western France looks like there are moving North towards Devon/Cornwall???

[Snowyowl9]

I can confirm I have heard thunder to the north of me over Newtown,.

I thought I heard a couple of distant rumbles around that time also.

Since my last post there were lots of large Tcu but they only went to a certain height as not into CB`s calvus which was odd. :blush:

There`s a thickish layer of altocumulus come over from the SW since with 1 or 2 fair size Tcu making it look very dark with a little light rain here now.

[Stormraider]

Gone quite dark to the West here, have looked at the clouds and its all coming this way... does anyone know if its thundery?