Convective/Storm Discussion early to mid June (merged)

[richep]

Heavy rain here,no thunder

[Pixlet]

Same, torrential rain here, no thunder.

Really dark and gloomy outside.

[Supercell 89]

Don't know if anybodys noticed but there are some thunderstorms moving northwards from spain and have just appeared on the metoffice satellite, hopefully they'll reach us by tommorow. http://metoffice.co.uk/

[Darren Bown]

Very close here, large Cumulus Congestus and Cumulus Calvus, nothing that looks like it wont give anything more than a sharp shower if it builds more. Very dramatic skies though!

Daz

[richep]

why is it that on the rainfall radar theres no rain over my area although it's raining quite heavy here

[Supacell]

Met Office have just released a weather warning for southern areas.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...t_warnings.html

Nothing in terms of electrical activity yet though, suppose there is still time.

[PersianPaladin]

Met Office have just released a weather warning for southern areas.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...t_warnings.html

Nothing in terms of electrical activity yet though, suppose there is still time.

Ahh...the infamous METO warning. Kiss of death imo.

[*AL*]

Feels very close and humid tonight.Skies are becoming darker as i speak.

[Nick F]

Don't know if anybodys noticed but there are some thunderstorms moving northwards from spain and have just appeared on the metoffice satellite, hopefully they'll reach us by tommorow. http://metoffice.co.uk/

Doesn't look like they will head in this direction looking at the 12z GFS and UKMO output, the upper winds around the upper low NW of Spain will tend to steer the storms away from the UK by the looks of it. Cornwall and perhaps Devon may get some thundery rain Sunday night coming up from the Bay of Biscay looking at precipitation projections. But not getting much further NE. As always it may change.

Both models suggest home-grown thundery showers developing tomorrow afternoon/evening across SW England and Wales due to wind convergence and orographic lift. On Monday it looks like more home-grown thundery showers developing inland - though some uncertainty to where yet.

[Andy Bown]

I've been watching the sky gradually turn blacker from the SE over the last hour, now it's brightest towards Bath/Bristol and very black over Salisbury Plain - more especially towards Devizes and zooming the radar to my postcode shows the heaviest showers in that direction.

[stormchaser1]

evening everyone

Just been looking at the radar on NW Extra and there is some Cape of around 400 showing Prob around the Bristol area

Nigel

[stormchaser1]

It has gone really dark outside , with some heavy clouds just to the South East of me , Current breeze coming in from the North East , current temp 17c with the dew on 13c according to NW extra radar we currently have a Li of 7.5

No storms forecasted for this area , at presant ,

Nigel

[Snowyowl9]

Just noticed a line of quite large Tcu just west of here which was unexpected as all other cloud had gone.

[Darren Bown]

Radar showing shower just going up east of me. Very dark east here atm.

Daz

[Lynxus]

Dark skies to my south / Southeast

Very slow moving clouds tho,Shame there isnt a huge storm , would be so cool .. Feels like there should be tho

[Supacell]

Doubt there will be any storms now.

Maybe a chance for Wales tomorrow and then we are into the unknown.......

[stormchaser1]

Local areas affected Warning type Valid from Valid to

London & South East England: Hampshire

Portsmouth

Southampton

W Sussex

Heavy Rain 1815 Sat 9 2100 Sat 9

Isolated torrential downpours will give in excess of 30mm in a short space of time during Saturday evening. The public are advised to take extra care and refer to the Highways Agency for further advice regarding traffic disruption on motorways and trunk roads.

Issued at: 1816 Sat 9 Jun

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/...t_warnings.html

nigel

[StormChaser]

Weather warning seems to have dissapeard now:(

[Buckster76]

seems a lot of moisture in the air - its "spotting" here in Chelmsford - you know the big spots you get not frequently

quite often get storms afterwards- but can't see anything through the murk - or anything developing

Mark.

Weather warning seems to have dissapeard now:(

[stormchaser1]

weather on line Skew charts are showing CAPE of 744 for the Bristol area tomorrow dinner time

Nigel

[Snowyowl9]

A few showers have sprung up elsewhere looking at the radar,as for that line of cloud it went to the SW of here and did turn into a shower afterall,just the leftover stratocumulus left now and it`s warm muggy at 16.6c

[stormchaser1]

skew charts for CARDIFF for tomorrow dinner time are showing cape of 866

nigel

[Supacell]

skew charts for CARDIFF for tomorrow dinner time are showing cape of 866

nigel

And this is with a temp of 22C. If temps in the afternoon are expected at 25C then CAPE may be even higher. How come GFS charts aren't showing anywhere near these values?

EDIT: Skew-T charts on netweather have CAPE much lower, i think it may be a mistake on weatheronline.

Edited June 9, 2007 by Supacell

[stormchaser1]

wind and dew points for tomorrow

nigel

[StormChaser]

wind and dew points for tomorrow

nigel

Can anyone give a good weather report for Didcot, Oxfordshire? Will there be any storms likely ? It looked pretty overcast this afternoon felt one spot of rain and that was it. Very humid here tho.. any report would be great.