Convective/Storm Discussion early to mid June (merged)

[chapmanslade]

24.3C with a dewpoint of 17.3C and first signs of quite strong convection. There does seem to be a cap as yesterday, so will need some additional forcing again (although it is warmer than yesterday)

[Costa Del Fal]

Still the Odd Strike in the South West.

[Bobby]

Some dark threatening looking clouds to my North East. Might turn into something soon.

[Cableguy]

Still the Odd Strike in the South West.

I think whatever detector you are using is wrong, there is no activity anywhere in that area(or any other) at present

[Noctilucid]

I tend to use the detectors as an indicator as to if theyre is lightning about, but not where, they tend to be very good at showing the strike rates but not so good at showing the posistion.

What we need is a system like that in the USA, where they have a system that can show lightning happening in real timeon a map, and they can pinpoint the lightning to within a few hundred yards, and its in real time!

I guess they do this by triangulating the sensors or connecting them together in one larege network, and this gives much much better accuracy, similar to the system that netweather uses except it all comes up in real time i think.

Joe

[Costa Del Fal]

I think whatever detector you are using is wrong, there is no activity anywhere in that area(or any other) at present

well it was out to sea.

[Bobby]

Radar is now showing precipitation in that exact area...

[creature(UK)]

After a very clear warm start to the day its starting to get humid down here and darker humid to the west of me

what are the chances of a rumble or two in the South West this afternoon????

Edited June 10, 2007 by creature(UK)

[liamcymro]

Hope we'll have some thunderstorm activity in the Next few days here in NW Wales! Looking out now towering cumulus and looking quite thundery to the South temps now at 25C!

Latest Webcam -

[richep]

Looks quite favourable for the south west this afternoon/evening,also good for wales according to the bbc

[creature(UK)]

heavy thundery showers forcast for tomorrow, i think we may in for an even better chance then

Edited June 10, 2007 by creature(UK)

[kentish_sally]

Good Afternoon all.

Nothing set up for the South East today it seems but on the past few GFS run's Tuesday has become a tantelising prospect for rather widespread storms.

Widespread heavy rain for most of England and pretty much ALL of southern England

Cape / LI giving off some nice high values, Do i spy 900kj of CAPE as the general potential energy?

Overall storm risk of 50-55%.

BUT! I really do expect a downgrade (900kj of CAPE - rather unusual for UK so i think GFS is overplaying this idea hence my suggestion of downgrade) for some areas given that it is still 60z away and alot can still change. A small trend for this on the brightside though as it has kind of stuck around for a tad. The rest of todays run's and up to the 06z tomorrow morning might make me feel more confident on the prospects - even if they do not bode well for Northern Kent.

Edited June 10, 2007 by kentish_sally

[Lynxus]

It will be interesting as to what Estofex predict for tomorrow. Cant wait to see their forecast.

@kentish_sally

"(900kj of CAPE - rather unusual for UK so i think GFS is overplaying this idea hence my suggestion of downgrade)"

tbh ive seen many time much higher cape in the UK, IMO 900 i think would be fairly normal for this time of year.

What i find really uncommon is high capes low lifted and storms that actually use it.

Edited June 10, 2007 by Lynxus

[Stuart]

look like i am going to miss out on tusday

[Snowyowl9]

Radar is now showing precipitation in that exact area...

That shower is moving NE fairly quickly looking at the radar.

NE wind here bringing more low status in as the sun was out a little while ago.

[kentish_sally]

I dont wish to dampen your parade and "pee on your thread" so to speak, But which lightning detector's are you using and also how reliable are they? Due to the limited technology of some of the lightning detectors available - many on the free service - the majority can sometimes give off some false readings (anaprops i belive they are called).

Please do not see this as a dig at your idea of a thread, i like the idea of lightning tracking but it is worth noting some detectors can give off a false strike

*Edit: why do iget the feeling we will see Paul in this thread with a quick advert about NW-Xtra lightning? *sniggers*

Edited June 10, 2007 by kentish_sally

[chapmanslade]

Shower here now - big blobs but not amounting to much

[kentish_sally]

tbh ive seen many time much higher cape in the UK, IMO 900 i think would be fairly normal for this time of year.

Has the CAPE Values remained at 900kj or more though? And actually stayed right up to the day of the event in itself?

[Lynxus]

Oh yes, many times.

Not sure if anyone else rememebers exactly when? but 2 years ago we had a huge storm and from what i recall we had cape of around 2000kj , was a stonker of storm aswell.

Althogh to be honist, its always nice to see high capes, but 90% of the time the storms never tap in.

[Lynxus]

Use something like http://blitzortung.org and get one of their downlaodable apps to view, Its updated every second with streamed data and then triangulated.

or if your really good with code, grab teh raw data from them as a .txt file and generate your own maps.

Edited June 10, 2007 by Lynxus

[Supacell]

Has the CAPE Values remained at 900kj or more though? And actually stayed right up to the day of the event in itself?

I was driving up the A1 through Yorkshire on 19th June 2005 - there was CAPE of around 2000J/KG then and there was a monster of a storm going off just to my east. Caused flash flooding that was in the news that day.

The MCS that moved from Reading to S Wales on 10th May last year was under CAPE of about 1500J/KG - again a huge storm with golf ball hail.

It does happen, quite regularly. But i agree that this year thus far has followed the pattern you talk about.

[Lynxus]

VERY black to my south / southwest..

[Lynxus]

Looking at the latest radars, some showers are now appearing south , southwest & wales.

[Lynxus]

Woop Woop lol

Maybe its a sign of things to come, a single strike this side of europe... Is it the start... AHHAHA

Edited June 10, 2007 by Lynxus

[StormChaseUK]

Woop Woop lol

Maybe its a sign of things to come, a single strike this side of europe... Is it the start... AHHAHA

I think the main areas will be the convective uplift so sw hills, welsh mountains, malverns etc.