Possible 30c

[Optimus Prime]

At the end of the day WIB the station is on top of a roof, mounted way up into the air above concrete on that roof. Even if it had a grass verge, all by itself on the top of the roof it can't make it official.

The Jurys out 29.7c is the highest temperature so far this year.

[SP1986]

At the end of the day WIB the station is on top of a roof, mounted way up into the air above concrete on that roof. Even if it had a grass verge, all by itself on the top of the roof it can't make it official.

The Jurys out 29.7c is the highest temperature so far this year.

I'm sure there are official stations higher up that the top of the WC roof though, arent there?, which probably reside on or near concrete? If I'm wrong that's fine, I'm happy to be corrected. But it would be very difficult to find the exact conditions - ie height, area size, ground terrain and topography in the stephenson screen zones to put every temperature recording station on, so therefore they cannot all be exact in sameness. Thats the reason I think the London WC is as good as any other official site in the UK.

[Spirit of 1740]

I fully understand that, official temperatures re the ones that count for statistical historical records, and I do accept that accepting none standard is meandering away from absolute accuracy. However not all none-standard sites are innaccurate and therefore this means on that day regardless of official measurements, it was odds on there was a 30.0C> recorded somewhere, accurately in England.

The problem with that argument is that it can apply all the time. In 2003, you could say it probably reached 40c somewhere on August 10. However, we don't put 40c down in the historical records. Nope, I'm afraid unless it was recorded at a standard site, it hasn't happened.

[Optimus Prime]

I'm sure 40c was reached somewhere at ground temperature in standard condtions without a sensor being there to pick it up in 2003 and possibly 2006.

At the end of the day 35.1 was recorded in 1900, 36.7c in 1911, 35.6c in 1923, 35.0c in 1948, 35.6c in 1959, 35.9c 1976, 37.1c 1990, 35.2c 1995 an so you could equally say the same thing.

[SP1986]

The problem with that argument is that it can apply all the time. In 2003, you could say it probably reached 40c somewhere on August 10. However, we don't put 40c down in the historical records. Nope, I'm afraid unless it was recorded at a standard site, it hasn't happened.

Yes but the August 10th 2003 38C was 2 whole degrees off 40C! I would not construct an argument to say 40C was reached because I dont believe it was.

We're talking 0.3C from 30C here, not 2 degrees from 30C!

Prove that it hasnt happened, because as far as concerned standard official sites cant prove it didnt happen anywhere either.

To say it didnt happen because it wasnt recorded on a standard site is very extreme unless you live your whole life dictated by stastistics, then in that case I'll offer a truce on that one

ps I hope you dont get the impression im a mild ramper because Im not, I am just as facinated by cold record temperatures, and hopefully I will be able to fight the case for a -29C somewhere in the next few upcoming winters. (just as long as I'm not out there when it happens)

[Spirit of 1740]

Thanks Optimus - great minds think alike.

Prove that it hasnt happened, because as far as concerned standard official sites cant prove it didnt happen anywhere either.

LOL. Listen to yourself Stephen. You are asking me to prove that 30c wasn't reached. That's not how we record weather statistics - by saying that we can't prove that they weren't reached. We record them only by proving that they were reached.

[West is Best]

Thanks Optimus - great minds think alike.

LOL. Listen to yourself Stephen. You are asking me to prove that 30c wasn't reached. That's not how we record weather statistics - by saying that we can't prove that they weren't reached. We record them only by proving that they were reached.

OP, that's not really the issue surely here. 30.3C was reached. What you are asking people to do is to disregard the London Weather Centre reading, even though this figure has been published on both the Met Office and the BBC sites. You're entitled to your opinion, but as far as I'm concerned 30C was reached, because that was the London reading.

Another form of truce, which is more realistic than knocking the LWC, is perhaps to say: 30C was reached in London. In other words, the effects of urbanisation made their mark on that little extra amount to top us up to 30C.

One other point: I don't recall their being too much complaint about the London Weather Centre when it comes to recording an official white Christmas. One rule ...?!

[SP1986]

Thanks Optimus - great minds think alike.

LOL. Listen to yourself Stephen. You are asking me to prove that 30c wasn't reached. That's not how we record weather statistics - by saying that we can't prove that they weren't reached. We record them only by proving that they were reached.

I'm not going to get wound up by your blantant attempt at winding me up.

From what I can see you have totally misread my point of view - so therefore I will not be replying to your provocative posts. I have listened and respected what you have written, and indeed I agree with some of it, however when the posts turn purposely provocative, I will not be wound up.

ps Im asking you to prove that 30C wasnt reached yes - you suggested that anything that hasnt been recorded officially did not happen, so evidently I must scrub the 27C I recorded on that day and replace it with Liverpool Airports official reading over 7 miles away, very apt.

[Spirit of 1740]

Stephen,

Sincerely, I am not trying to wind you up.

I am merely pointing out that when all is said and done, only official statistics count for historical comparisons because other sites and personal records are not subject to proper and consistent checking and standardisation. When placed in that proper context, 2007 is presently heading for the title of a year without 30c.

Edited August 7, 2007 by Spirit of 1740

[SP1986]

Ok fair enough, I agree statistically that summer 2007 will not be heading for a 30C. Although to put my point in a better way, some lucky person somewhere could have been lucky enough to walk out into 30C unofficially (which will never be proved by official statistics which I very much accept, but cant be disproved on a none official, dynamic scale)

[Spirit of 1740]

Ok fair enough, I agree statistically that summer 2007 will not be heading for a 30C. Although to put my point in a better way, some lucky person somewhere could have been lucky enough to walk out into 30C unofficially (which will never be proved by official statistics which I very much accept, but cant be disproved on a none official, dynamic scale)

I have no problem in agreeing with that.

[Optimus Prime]

One other point: I don't recall their being too much complaint about the London Weather Centre when it comes to recording an official white Christmas. One rule ...?!

Actually I find that dubious also. But the fact, while it's high up I don't think it makes a lot of difference when recording a snowflake ebcause for the millions that will fall down as, even as sleet. at least one snowflake is bound to hit the ground amoungst the rain.

I'm just wondering. The Metoffice removed the Redhill station because it's situated in a frost hollow and always gave slightly low minima at night then the surrounding terrain. Since they removed that station, have they removed any other stations from other frost hollows? Or discount them altogether. I'm sure they would have effects on minima, maxima recorded and perhaps make a slightly change in the CET.

Edited August 7, 2007 by Optimus Prime

[Thundery wintry showers]

One other point: I don't recall their being too much complaint about the London Weather Centre when it comes to recording an official white Christmas. One rule ...?!

Occurrence of sleet/snow is far less subsceptible to 'non-standard surroundings' than temperature. Indeed, there are probably quite a number of non-standard sites that qualify for legitimate occurrences of hail, sleet, snow, thunder etc.

Here are the three stats as far as I can see:

1. 30C probably was reached under standard conditions somewhere in the UK, but not at a location where there were any weather stations.

2. The Met Office and BBC will put the reading from London Weather Centre up on their sites for the time being. Thus, the maximum was 30.3C for that particular day on the list.

3. It is unlikely that the London Weather Centre's reading will go down in the history books. Thus, unless 30C is exceeded later this year, 2007 may well end up going down in the history books as the first year not to record a 30C since 1993.

I think many people are looking out for point 3 above to come true, in which case the "30C wasn't reached" argument is legitimate.

[Nick H]

I'm sure there are official stations higher up that the top of the WC roof though, arent there?, which probably reside on or near concrete? If I'm wrong that's fine, I'm happy to be corrected. But it would be very difficult to find the exact conditions - ie height, area size, ground terrain and topography in the stephenson screen zones to put every temperature recording station on, so therefore they cannot all be exact in sameness. Thats the reason I think the London WC is as good as any other official site in the UK.

Of course there are standard stations that are higher than the roof of LWC. In fact, I would imagine that most on the network are.

Ground terrain and topography are irrelevant when it comes to determining whether a station should be official or not. The rules laid down are clear, the Stevenson Screen has to be a certain level above ground (I forget what it is now - four feet?) to be standard. So by the Met Office's own rules, the site has no claim to being official. Which makes their decision to publish the LWC reading all the more puzzling. It reminds me of the International Cricket Council's decision to grant Test status to the Australia vs Rest of the World Match a couple of years ago - despite the ICC charter saying that a Test Match can only be played between two member countries.

And let's not turn this into a cold rampers vs warm lovers discussion - I quite like hot weather and I was in the Leicester Sq/Covent Gdn area (less than a mile from LWC) for all of Sunday afternoon and it certainly felt like 30C - so I could have three reasons for wanting this to count as a 30C. However, it must not stand as an official record.

We will have to see if any 30.0C+ readings come in at the end of the month. St James' Park, which is an official site could tell us much.

Also, Stephen, your demand that someone "proves" that 30C was not reached elsewhere in the country strikes me as odd. It is quite probable that somewhere in London reached 30C on Sunday, but it just so happens that no official site recorded it. You can't say, "Well show me it wasn't reached", the burden of proof is on your side.

30.3C was reached.

...at a non-standard site, Richard. It also reached 30.5C on my dear Aunt Doris' garden thermometer in Chiswick.....big deal.

One last thing, will people please stop saying that the "BBC and the Met Office" both say it reached 30C, we all know the BBC gets its info from the MO, so stop trying to make out that "the 2 big beasts" have declared that 30C was reached.

Edited August 7, 2007 by Nick H

[Scorcher]

Stephen,

Sincerely, I am not trying to wind you up.

I am merely pointing out that when all is said and done, only official statistics count for historical comparisons because other sites and personal records are not subject to proper and consistent checking and standardisation. When placed in that proper context, 2007 is presently heading for the title of a year without 30c.

Let's be honest about it, if another site had reached 30C you would be still be desperately trying to find a way to discount it. Hard to accept that your dreams of a year without 30C are over for this year at least. 30.3C is comfortably above it as well, so that is good enough for me and most other people.

[Eugene]

Whether it was reached or not it's been a very poor summer for heatwaves that's for sure and time is running out fast now as August progresses the nights draw in fast, i already notice the darker evenings and mornings.

Only one hot day in the midlands and no heatwaves this year in the UK so far, i count heatwaves as widespread readings of 30C+.

[SP1986]

And let's not turn this into a cold rampers vs warm lovers discussion - I quite like hot weather and I was in the Leicester Sq/Covent Gdn area (less than a mile from LWC) for all of Sunday afternoon and it certainly felt like 30C - so I could have three reasons for wanting this to count as a 30C. However, it must not stand as an official record.

It is most certainly not a question of cold/warm rampers division, I would also equally be likely to stand and fight the corner of my point if LWC had the lowest temperature of a particular set of measurements. My reason for my argument is largely because people don't see the importance of conditions outside of standard sites set up.

Also, Stephen, your demand that someone "proves" that 30C was not reached elsewhere in the country strikes me as odd. It is quite probable that somewhere in London reached 30C on Sunday, but it just so happens that no official site recorded it. You can't say, "Well show me it wasn't reached", the burden of proof is on your side.

...at a non-standard site, Richard. It also reached 30.5C on my dear Aunt Doris' garden thermometer in Chiswick.....big deal.

One last thing, will people please stop saying that the "BBC and the Met Office" both say it reached 30C, we all know the BBC gets its info from the MO, so stop trying to make out that "the 2 big beasts" have declared that 30C was reached.

Yes I was a bit hasty saying 'prove' but I was trying to make a point. A point in jest, not a point literally.

Ps I'm sure the met-office would beg to differ about topography not being important, but thats a question for them, not for me, or you.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Let's be honest about it, if another site had reached 30C you would be still be desperately trying to find a way to discount it. Hard to accept that your dreams of a year without 30C are over for this year at least. 30.3C is comfortably above it as well, so that is good enough for me and most other people.

I very much doubt this; London Weather Centre has long been known to be a non-standard site (as Nick points out above, it violates the Met Office's own rules). If it had been 30.3C at Heathrow Airport chances are we'd have all just accepted it.

If we're arguing "30C was exceeded somewhere in the UK" then fine. But if we're comparing with historic records using standard sites, in terms of whether 2007 will be the first year since 1993 without a maximum of 30C or above, then we're still yet to breach 30C by that measure.

[Weather-history]

I e-mailed the Met Office about the London Weather Centre station

Here is their reply

"Dear Kevin

Thank you for your email.

Technically the site does not conform to standard meteorological

criteria of siting, etc, but many customers do use it as a bona-fide

site, as it is representative of how it feels in an inner city built up

area. Some customer have modelled its temperatures to use this heat

island effect.

So I suppose the answer to the question is yes and no.

I hope that helps clarify the matter.

Kind Regards

Sarah

Customer Centre, Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon"

[Scorcher]

I e-mailed the Met Office about the London Weather Centre station

Here is their reply

"Dear Kevin

Thank you for your email.

Technically the site does not conform to standard meteorological

criteria of siting, etc, but many customers do use it as a bona-fide

site, as it is representative of how it feels in an inner city built up

area. Some customer have modelled its temperatures to use this heat

island effect.

So I suppose the answer to the question is yes and no.

I hope that helps clarify the matter.

Kind Regards

Sarah

Customer Centre, Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon"

Interesting so I suppose that means it's still up in the air. It is an accurate reading for the centre of a large city- remote sites located in rural areas are not going to produce readings that represent conditions that the majority of the population experiences in a warm spell. We are one of the most urbanised nations in the world after all.

[West is Best]

Interesting so I suppose that means it's still up in the air. It is an accurate reading for the centre of a large city- remote sites located in rural areas are not going to produce readings that represent conditions that the majority of the population experiences in a warm spell. We are one of the most urbanised nations in the world after all.

Interesting ... it's the point I was attempting to make i.e. that 30C was clearly reached in London. It's a separate issue as to whether we should only take rural readings or whether we should just accept the urban island effect.

As I asked previously: what's going to happen when most of the globe is concrete? Relatedly, does it mean that any temperature readings in Hong Kong are invalid?

I don't know how to compromise here, except to say that 30C was reached in London but to acknowledge that this reading was affected by the problem of urbanisation, and that others would prefer a 30C reading outside of the connurbation for an official statistic to set alongside historic records. Seems a fair compromise solution to me?

[Weather-history]

Interesting so I suppose that means it's still up in the air.

No, the opening line kills it stone dead. There is an official Met Official station at St James's Park in London, the London Weather Centre station isn't an official station and is more as a guide.

Edited August 8, 2007 by Mr_Data

[TEITS]

So there we have it 30C has not been reached officially from an official weather station. So the 30C from the LWC won't be recorded for statistcal purposes so as of yet we haven't recorded 30C this year. Im not surprised it won't be recorded because not only is a stevenson screen is supposed to be away from buildings the fact that the station is on top of a roof would further skew the temp due to the fact that warm air rises.

So as of yet we haven't recorded 30C this year. Looking at the models it looks unlikely that we are going to see such temps in the near future and although we can still see such temps into September the synoptic set up requires to be something special to deliver such temps.

[Bobby]

So there we have it 30C has not been reached officially from an official weather station. So the 30C from the LWC won't be recorded for statistcal purposes so as of yet we haven't recorded 30C this year. Im not surprised it won't be recorded because not only is a stevenson screen is supposed to be away from buildings the fact that the station is on top of a roof would further skew the temp due to the fact that warm air rises.

So as of yet we haven't recorded 30C this year. Looking at the models it looks unlikely that we are going to see such temps in the near future and although we can still see such temps into September the synoptic set up requires to be something special to deliver such temps.

Quite, a summer without 30c, especially in this day in age, is shocking. When was the last summer without 30c being reached? Look unlikely now we will reach it this year looking at the models.

[TEITS]

Quite, a summer without 30c, especially in this day in age, is shocking. When was the last summer without 30c being reached? Look unlikely now we will reach it this year looking at the models.

Here are the years when 30C hasn't been reached.

1993, 1981, 1980, 1978, 1972, 1966, 1965, 1963, 1962, 1958. 1931, 1927, 1920, 1913, 1910.

As you can see it is rather unusual not to exceed 30C especially during these supposedly warming times. If you consider our rainfall totals also this summer it just goes to show what an amazingly poor summer it has really been. Note how apart from 1993 the last time 30C wasn't reached was during those cold winter years of the late 70's/early 80's .