July CET

[kold weather]

I really can't see where any plume could come from West, esp with such a strong jet for July any attmept will get blasted into Europe just like the weekend just gone. The models are varying but you can't escape that low pressure dominates til lat least the 25th, thats not to say a ridge can't come up still here and there and that the models have been under-estimating northern blocking for the last 2 months. Mind you I don't really expect that much of a drop and I honestly suspect we'll be within 0.2C of where we are now, the synoptic pattern just doesn't change fast enoughto suggest anything much different to the CET.

80% below average, 18% average and 2% above, that would be the chances based on the 71-00 average.

Edited July 18, 2007 by kold weather

[Stratos Ferric]

I'm not sure ... I think I'd put it about 75% at the moment. The reason for the 25% is that the pattern is in a curious state of flux, with enormous variations in the models run by run, day by day. I still wouldn't rule out a plume set up and with mild nights still on the cards I'm just not as certain as some of you about the drop off. The old 61-90 average is certainly still possible I think, though that's not really the point. The real reason for wanting to leave some room for change is simply that there are 13 days of the month left.

I certainly think that tomorrow and Friday have the potential to be a lot milder than projected last night: hence my comment at the time that my hunch was upwards of where the models had it. This afternoon in London has been much better than predicted, and assuming that's replicated as widely as I suspect then temps wil be well into the low 20s fairly widely.

[West is Best]

I really can't see where any plume could come from West,

Continental high does keep getting proffered KW ... just think it's climatic suicide (is there such a thing?) to rule anything out with best part of a fortnight to go.

Edited July 18, 2007 by West is Best

[summer blizzard]

Total ensemble agreement on no plume until the 29th at least.

I agree Kold, i can see little movement from here, perhaps some downward movement, but not much.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I went for17.7C!!!! West did you put the mockers on me or I on you We are way off....and I was getting back on track

BFTP

[Stratos Ferric]

I went for17.7C!!!! West did you put the mockers on me or I on you We are way off....and I was getting back on track

BFTP

Despite my own punt I can't help affording myself a wry smile at this month, of all months, when some of the perennial "cold backers" finally go warm, what do we get? The monthly outcome looks a tad warmer than was suggested last night, but it should still be shy of 16C. What is clear is that for all the models bouncing wildly around the detail, the overall trend continues unsettled; any warmth is mT air pluming up ahead of incoming depressions.

[Gavin P]

Well, we shouldn't be that surprised. Like I pointed out at the beginning of this thread, over the last ten years, July is one of the most likely months to be below average.

Edited July 18, 2007 by Gavin P

[Optimus Prime]

I don't think it's that JUly has a higher chance of coming in below average, it's that July rarely comes in with a large +anomaly (even 2003 July only came in a shade over 1.0c above average and it felt very hot at times)

And so in average terms is evened out more then most over months.

[TEITS]

The real reason for wanting to leave some room for change is simply that there are 13 days of the month left.

I just wondered this plume you are referring to is it the same one you predicted a few weeks ago when saying "summer is on it's way" .

Seriously though you right 13 days is a long way away when it comes to the weather but I think we can reliably take up to +144 with some confidence so that leaves only 7 days and as you often say FI is more reliable in summer

[West is Best]

A slight rise again yesterday in the CET. Manley is now on 15.6C.

Last night's minima were once again mostly in double figures (a good 3C to 4C above the GFS as per normal). Today should see a futher rise with relatively high maxima (22C+) and another mild night tonight (mins again well into double figures) before a pegging back tomorrow and Saturday under the continental rain band.

Looking ahead I still think the jury is out. Next week seems to me to be offering the possibility which I'd put at about 35% of that much warmer southerly draw to which I alluded, from time to time (even as early as Tuesday). The overnight GFS offered hints of this, and I notice UKMO fax also hinting at it. Not that it would be dry: looks distinctly thundery if it transpires. I'm not suggesting this will happen, simply that it's still too early and too uncertain to be absolutely categoric about the end outcome of this month. My money from here would be on a final figure close to 16C: so a little below the 71-00 average, but perhaps not by as much as was envisaged. Pretty similar to last August temp wise really.

Edited July 19, 2007 by West is Best

[Stratos Ferric]

A slight rise again yesterday in the CET. Manley is now on 15.6C.

Last night's minima were once again mostly in double figures (a good 3C to 4C above the GFS as per normal). Today should see a futher rise with relatively high maxima (22C+) and another mild night tonight (mins again well into double figures) before a pegging back tomorrow and Saturday under the continental rain band.

Looking ahead I still think the jury is out. Next week seems to me to be offering the possibility which I'd put at about 35% of that much warmer southerly draw to which I alluded, from time to time (even as early as Tuesday). The overnight GFS offered hints of this, and I notice UKMO fax also hinting at it. Not that it would be dry: looks distinctly thundery if it transpires. I'm not suggesting this will happen, simply that it's still too early and too uncertain to be absolutely categoric about the end outcome of this month. My money from here would be on a final figure close to 16C: so a little below the 71-00 average, but perhaps not by as much as was envisaged. Pretty similar to last August temp wise really.

Certainly today will be a rising day rather than a falling one. Remains to be seen what happens on Friday and Saturday. Maxes will be pegged but mins should still be above par, and depending on the rate of progress of the front on saturday we may still have a day where temps fall back only slightly. 15.4C by Sunday, perhaps, then probably a slight net rise overall next week. The end of the month detail is still splattered all over the place so too early to say which way it will go from there, but I wouldn't expect much movement either way, and like WiB, I'd favour upwards if forced. High 15s wouldn't be a bad call right now.

[Stu_London]

Much uncertainty about the detail but anything south of 15.5 of north of 16.0 would be surprising now.

[SP1986]

I dont think there will be much fall over the weekend. While temps will be surpressed somewhat in the day, the diurnal range wont be much different so I can see only a fall of 0.5C over the weekend from what it may be at the end of today/beginning of tomorrow. Still odds on the finish below average, but slowly creeping up, as say a consolation for the dented pride of summer fans.

[West is Best]

Hadley is on 15.7C up to yesterday http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

It's nice to see Hadley now doing such regular updates.

(provisional figure of course)

[West is Best]

Hadley is on 15.7C up to yesterday http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

It's nice to see Hadley now doing such regular updates.

(provisional figure of course)

Some huge temperature variations today. Distinctly cool in the south-west. Very cool in eastern Scotland. Distinctly hot in the CET zone. So another CET rise is pretty inevitable given the pretty mild night ahead as well. I think this point about the diurnal range is a good one: mins don't look low, and have been nothing like as low as the GFS has been positing (nothing new there).

[DR Hosking]

I don't think it's that JUly has a higher chance of coming in below average, it's that July rarely comes in with a large +anomaly (even 2003 July only came in a shade over 1.0c above average and it felt very hot at times)

And so in average terms is evened out more then most over months.

What about last years Anomaly of + 3.2 then?

[Optimus Prime]

What about last years Anomaly of + 3.2 then?

That was an exception, just like 1983 at 3.0c above normal. Just like April also rarely has a large anomaly either side of -+ this year it was 3.1c above average. The previous warmest on record was only 2.5c above average.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hadley is on 15.7C up to yesterday http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

It's nice to see Hadley now doing such regular updates.

(provisional figure of course)

Aren't we sticking to Manley? Prefer Hadley as closer to my miles out call

BFTP

[TEITS]

Some huge temperature variations today. Distinctly cool in the south-west. Very cool in eastern Scotland. Distinctly hot in the CET zone. So another CET rise is pretty inevitable given the pretty mild night ahead as well. I think this point about the diurnal range is a good one: mins don't look low, and have been nothing like as low as the GFS has been positing (nothing new there).

Rather OTT WIB.

The max temp I have seen so far today has been 24C which is only 2C above average. So the correct description would be warm/very warm considering we are towards the end of July and temps of above +27C should be classed as hot!.

[eddie]

If we take the current Hadley figure then we need a daily average temperature of 16.8C+ to take us over the 69-90 average. I certainly wouldn't rule that out at this point.

17.9C required to beat the 1971-2000 average. Still possible but much less likely.

[West is Best]

If Manley is not 15.2 or lower by the 22nd, I will eat my lucky pants (and post the photos on here to prove it)

I'm getting nervous about this offer Stu ... never have I wanted more to be wrong :unsure:

[jethro]

Some huge temperature variations today. Distinctly cool in the south-west. Very cool in eastern Scotland. Distinctly hot in the CET zone. So another CET rise is pretty inevitable given the pretty mild night ahead as well. I think this point about the diurnal range is a good one: mins don't look low, and have been nothing like as low as the GFS has been positing (nothing new there).

It wasn't distinctly cool around here in the South West, it was distinctly very warm and summery for the second day in a row. Not sure the same could be said this time tomorrow...

[West is Best]

It wasn't distinctly cool around here in the South West, it was distinctly very warm and summery for the second day in a row. Not sure the same could be said this time tomorrow...

Somerset is the Midlands isn't it?!

Seriously - 100 miles + further west near the Devon-Cornish border it was really cool and wet all day.

[Stratos Ferric]

I'm getting nervous about this offer Stu ... never have I wanted more to be wrong

It needs to be almost 2C per day below current average from here to Sunday for that to happen. Tonight is warm, tomorrow probably won't be as cool as required to generate a 2c drop. Saturday, we'll have to wait and see but I suspect something like 18-12; Sunday should be up on that mark. I suspect 15.3 at lowest by Sunday c.o.b. perhaps even 16.4 if we nudged up again today (I'll be surprised if we haven't).

[West is Best]

Indeed Stratos.

Manley has nudged up to 15.65C on the latest min/max http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0707.htm