July CET

[West is Best]

The max temp I have seen today has been 24C

Actually the max was 25.5C http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

Not too bad in a very poor month

Edited July 20, 2007 by West is Best

[Stu_London]

It needs to be almost 2C per day below current average from here to Sunday for that to happen. Tonight is warm, tomorrow probably won't be as cool as required to generate a 2c drop. Saturday, we'll have to wait and see but I suspect something like 18-12; Sunday should be up on that mark. I suspect 15.3 at lowest by Sunday c.o.b. perhaps even 16.4 if we nudged up again today (I'll be surprised if we haven't).

It has indeed been warmer than expected not just at night but by day also and 15.65C is about 0.25C higher than I thought we would be. Daily means of 15C between now and sunday are as you say looking liketly so 15.5C by then is the most likely.

Reasonable agreement that things stay average or slightly below until the end of the month so something around 15.5 is where we finish I suspect.

[Stratos Ferric]

It has indeed been warmer than expected not just at night but by day also and 15.65C is about 0.25C higher than I thought we would be. Daily means of 15C between now and sunday are as you say looking liketly so 15.5C by then is the most likely.

Reasonable agreement that things stay average or slightly below until the end of the month so something around 15.5 is where we finish I suspect.

Not if this morning's charts deliver Stu. The 31st alone would pump things up by >0.1C, and there's a lot of scope for warmth next week as the south stays in tropical source air. Depending on how far things dip back this w/e high 15s is now a distinct possibility. I do, though, think we can now rule out an average or better month.

Actually the max was 25.5C http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

Not too bad in a very poor month

I haven't checked back but yesterday, rather surprisingly thinking back to Monday's charts, may well have returned the highest CET upside of the year to date. What was surprising was the o/n minimum. There was a lot of local variation over quite short distances (several central England stations didn't get below 12, others dipped, briefly, as low as 7 or ; I suspect Malvern pulled it down the most. Depending on how you want to see it either the steamy maxima held things up, or the surprising minima pegged them back down.

[Kentish Man]

Manley stands at exactly 15.5C this morning (Jul 1- 20). This is a quite a sharp drop from yesterday's 15.65C and presumably reflects yesterday's depressed maxima under the heavy rain in the CET zone. Average maxima for the month are a full 2.0C below norm.

A below average month must now be a certainty especially given the cool unsettled outlook in the models for the next 7 days.

[The PIT]

CET should rises again after this weekend. Beeb has us in Sheffield averaging 17+C later in the week so it'll be even higher in the CET area if it comes off. GFS doesn't agree though so it's a case of wait and see.

[Stu_London]

CET should rises again after this weekend. Beeb has us in Sheffield averaging 17+C later in the week so it'll be even higher in the CET area if it comes off. GFS doesn't agree though so it's a case of wait and see.

Based on the 00z GFS i can't see many changes from where we are now until month end

On the downside maybe a fall of 0.2C would be possible

With more potential on the upside maybe 0.5C higher is achievable

This is based on the output of one run so usual caveats apply

[Stratos Ferric]

Just having checked Philip's plots for yesterday I'm struck by a couple of features: firstly the exceptionally small temperature range yesterday; secondly, and I'd made this point previously, how unrepresentative the rainfall series is when we have localised torrential activity.

Overall, the latest projection towards the month end is a tad warmer, suggesting a finishing point in the high 15s, possibly just nudging 16. Mainly tropical air, so temps climbing in any sunny spells and probably not falling back overnight as far as they have on one or two occasions so far this month.

[Gavin P]

Well its pretty cold in the CET zone just now....

[Stu_London]

Well its pretty cold in the CET zone just now....

Indeed most places in the zone haven't got near the average to date for the month - so a falling day today despite temps holding up last night - a colder night tonight beckons too

[summer blizzard]

Once again, it looks as if i overestimated the predicted temperatures, in that i expected the CET for the 1st-20th to be 15.7C-15.9C, when in actual fact it was 15.5C.

In regards to the period 21st-30th, this is a difficult priod to judge because there are three or four days when the CET could either rise or fall, though i see wednesday and saturday seeing a rise for definit however i see monday, tuesday, friday and monday seeing a fall in the CET, therefore assuming no CET change on the other four days, i believe that the period 21st-30th will record an average temperature of 16.7C, 0.2C below average, with the monthly CET in the range of 15.8C-16C.

[phil nw.]

I guess CET temp.will have taken a nudge further down by tommorow.

Damn chilly here last 2 days with temps by day around 13-14c for much of the time under this rain.

Cetainly keeps my July punt well off target.

[kold weather]

Very surpressed maxes today in the Midlands region, the maxes in the SE section of the CET zone got upto about 17-18C but elsewhere only got upto 13-15C. This combined with mins down to 9-11C is going to lead to another dro pin the CET today. tomorrow looks like it could be a little below average. monday is uncertain sdue to the possiblity of a LP swinging through the channel, if its a little further north then progged then we could see another fairly wet day and surpressed CET in the southern part of the zone, but who knows!

Looking like an above average month is now pretty much out of the question.

Mr Data, how westerly has July been so far by the way?

Seems like NW through to SW have dominated.

Edited July 21, 2007 by kold weather

[NorthantsSnow]

What is the current July average? And what is the CET so far for this month?

Thanks.

[Gavin P]

Everything you need to know can be found at this excellent site;

http://www.climate-uk.com

Edited July 21, 2007 by Gavin P

[Snowly does it]

An average July would now require around 18.3 per day (including today)

To equal the 61-90 average requires about 17

I would say 15.6 to 16.1 looks good

[West is Best]

Everything you need to know can be found at this excellent site;

http://www.climate-uk.com

Just to point out that this is Philip Eden's Manley CET emulation, which is currently 15.4C

The official Met office Hadley centre CET was 15.6C to the 20th, and can be found here: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Although the CET competition on here currently uses Manley (because it used to update faster than Hadley), most people on NW will still use the official figure for final assessments/comparisons etc of the month.

[Optimus Prime]

From Philips site, due to that dull and wet weather yesterday;

A cold day: notably low maxes included 9.7°C at Aviemore (Inverness-shire), 10.8°C at Carter

Bar (Roxburghshire), 11.6°C at Eskdalemuir (Dumfriesshire) and Shap (Cumbria), and 12.0°C at

Sennybridge (Breconshire)

Very rare to get single figure maxima in summer.

[Weather-history]

Using Philip's data, the last 31 days (21st June-21st July)

CET: 14.9 (-0.8]

Rainfall: 170.9mm (275%)

Sunshine: 135.2hrs (72%)

Not the greatest figures!

Edited July 22, 2007 by Mr_Data

[Stu_London]

The official Met office Hadley centre CET was 15.6C to the 20th, and can be found here: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Although the CET competition on here currently uses Manley (because it used to update faster than Hadley), most people on NW will still use the official figure for final assessments/comparisons etc of the month.

Hadley now 15.5 to 21st

At this stage of the month we would need either minimas in excess of 17C and maximas up past the mid 20s to get things moving toward average

Neither likely if you believe the BBC countryfile forecast

Therefore somewhere near where we are now seems likely - maybe up a few tenths on the basis that it can't get any worse

[West is Best]

Though to be fair Stu you said a few days ago that you'd eat your pants if it wasn't 15.2C by now!

16C is certainly very possible from here.

Edited July 22, 2007 by West is Best

[Snowyowl9]

What`s the odds that this month maybe the coolest month since 1993/15.2c or even 1988!! 14.7c with only maxes of 19c forecast this coming week on countryfile, though that could change.

Might aswell look for a cold July now.

As was cold last night too.

[Optimus Prime]

According to the Metoffice both mean max and min has dropped.

Minimum to the 22nd; 12.1c. 0.6c above average

Maximum to the 22nd; 18.8c. 1.5c below average

Current mean; 15.5c, 0.5c below normal.

The mean max is likely to drop again tomorrow. My guess by around 0.15c. Could be as much as 1.7c below by tomorrow afternoon. Mena min is also likely to drop away, maybe by 0.2c tonight.

I suspect the mean will be close to 15.3c by tomorrow.

By the end of the week I would expect the mean max to be around 18.6c. 1.8c below normal and mean min 11.8c 0.3c above.

I think there are small indications towards a warm end to the month, possibly into the high 20s. So 15.8-16.5c looks most likely is this occurs. Or the current conditions remain, something closer to 15.1c.

Edited July 22, 2007 by Optimus Prime

[kold weather]

I think the warmer end of the month according to the GFS is very much unlikely given no other model/ensembles goes anything even close to as warm as the 12z shows...however it may be a touch warmer then we've been seeing as an average this month and I wouldn't be surprised to see 23-25C pop up again if the showers are kept away, though the ECM keeps thickness fairly close to average and therefore maxes not as high as the GFS wants to bring in.

I think Monday will lower the cET a little, the UKMO actually has moved away from the heavy rainfall while the GFS has actually decided to strengthen the band compared to last night. Then any drop on monday will be made up on Tuesday I believe.

CET range IMO is now between 15.5-16.1C, it could be higher if the GFS is right BUT I'm very wary of the 12z output even if that set-up did actually happen a couple of weeks ago.

[summer blizzard]

Phillip Eden has the current CET at 15.4C.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

The GFS6z run was the mildest outlier towards the end of the month, and i would back a smilar event to last friday, which is shown by some ensemble members.

I am actually going to sugget that a downward movement is actually more likely because of the remaining nine days unaccounted for, i see four days which will see a downward movement, two that will see an upward movement and three that could go either way, thus i am starting to suspect that we may see a CET in the range of 14.9C-15.5C.

Incidently, one of my predicton methods did indicate a 30% chance of the July CET being lower than Junes.

[Stratos Ferric]

...

Incidently, one of my predicton methods did indicate a 30% chance of the July CET being lower than Junes.

SB, when somebody uses as many methods as you it would be a surprise indeed if all potential bases were not somehow covered in one of your many punts.