Tuesday/Wednesday's Event

[Cakie]

Hi Katie Loo :lol: Yes I was up lastnight watching that weather on the radar move into your area.

Hope that you enjoyed it

Not sure I really enjoyed it, it was vicious, I thought the roof was going to come off

[The PIT]

tell that to one third of the people in the Fastnet race, 98 out of about 300 have already retired from the race. I just hope it does not turn into a version of 1979. It does not look anything like as bad as that storm so fingers crossed.

Didn't know the Fastnet race was being held in Sheffield hence the comment for a none event for us. Also raises the question why are they racing???

[PersianPaladin]

Not sure I really enjoyed it, it was vicious, I thought the roof was going to come off

Hehee.

I think 'viscious' is having 40-70mph gusts most of the day and frequent violent rainstorms with convective downbursts and gusts of 85mph+ back in December. Now that was scary.

[johnholmes]

using the 1300 bst pressures it appears to be moving on about a track from 260 degrees but will likely start to turn further north of that line as it gets over southern Eire

[grab my graupel]

Hehee.

I think 'viscious' is having 40-70mph gusts most of the day and frequent violent rainstorms with convective downbursts and gusts of 85mph+ back in December. Now that was scary.

Hi P.P.

I suppose it is kind of viscious for August.

I don't know about you , but I'm enjoying this rain today, it feels quite cozy inside today

watching the weather through the window.

It dosen't feel that cold to me either.

using the 1300 bst pressures it appears to be moving on about a track from 260 degrees but will likely start to turn further north of that line as it gets over southern Eire

Thanks for the update John :lol:

[johnholmes]

it will not feel 'cold' today as warm fronts are spreading Tropical air northwards.

below is the latest sat picc and comments.

Edited August 14, 2007 by johnholmes

[kold weather]

For August this is a fairly tightly wound system, esp when you consider that it had only minimal tropical injection, this one is probably one of the first Autumnal type low in a while. Really its not been that bad here so far with some at time fairly gusty winds but nothing to noteable and now just cloudy with no rain in a little while.

[grab my graupel]

For August this is a fairly tightly wound system, esp when you consider that it had only minimal tropical injection, this one is probably one of the first Autumnal type low in a while. Really its not been that bad here so far with some at time fairly gusty winds but nothing to noteable and now just cloudy with no rain in a little while.

Hi Darren

What sort of wind speeds do you think would be needed to cause any problems

such as uprooted trees etc given that they are in leaf atm.

Do you think this is still a possibility judging by how things are developing, right now.

[Nick F]

06Z GFS theta-w (wet-bulb potential temp) charts show rather warm moist Tm air being drawn NE aloft into the low's circulation this afternoon:

Been low cloud with heavy drizzle or light to moderate rain (typical of a moist Tm airmass) here for most the day so far, with a strong wind to boot, but feeling warm and muggy despite the wind.

[johnholmes]

Hi Darren

What sort of wind speeds do you think would be needed to cause any problems

such as uprooted trees etc given that they are in leaf atm.

Do you think this is still a possibility judging by how things are developing, right now.

min of 30mph gusts 50+mph for more than small branches to break off I would say.

[Nick F]

Winds gusting to 41mph at Solent and 43 mph at Thorney Island on the South coast recently:

http://www.xcweather.co.uk

[grab my graupel]

min of 30mph gusts 50+mph for more than small branches to break off I would say.

Thanks John.

It does seem a real possibility for some then, and highlights the significance of such

a storm at this time of year.

Being totally surrounded by trees, I should perhaps count myself as fortunate

to get away with any severe winds, with perhaps the rain being the most prominant

feature for this location.

[johnholmes]

Winds gusting to 41mph at Solent and 43 mph at Thorney Island on the South coast recently:

http://www.xcweather.co.uk

ignore the reports of pressure from West Freugh and the attempt by the computer to incorporate its pressure.

There is obviously a fault with the pressure sensor.

If the low does move in the direction expected it will be interesting to watch the computer attempting to 'marry' a low of probably below 992mb with the West Freugh pressure!

[SP1986]

Parts of North Wales are recieving a fohn effect with relatively calm winds - read off that what you will. 21C in both Rhos on sea, and Prestatyn - winds from off the Berwyn and Fflintshire range respectively. Interesting we are getting a fohn effect of the east flintshire range (Halkyn) and the hope mountain/caergwle ranges in the east of Wales, so therefore it is dry and cloudy but bright, with temperatures 20C

[PersianPaladin]

Parts of North Wales are recieving a fohn effect with relatively calm winds - read off that what you will. 21C in both Rhos on sea, and Prestatyn - winds from off the Berwyn and Fflintshire range respectively. Interesting we are getting a fohn effect of the east flintshire range (Halkyn) and the hope mountain/caergwle ranges in the east of Wales, so therefore it is dry and cloudy but bright, with temperatures 20C

Foehntastic

[The PIT]

Parts of North Wales are recieving a fohn effect with relatively calm winds - read off that what you will. 21C in both Rhos on sea, and Prestatyn - winds from off the Berwyn and Fflintshire range respectively. Interesting we are getting a fohn effect of the east flintshire range (Halkyn) and the hope mountain/caergwle ranges in the east of Wales, so therefore it is dry and cloudy but bright, with temperatures 20C

Interesting Stephen. At least that's one thing this system turned up. Otherwise nothing of note so far.

[Zenarcher]

Buoy Reports

K5 Buoy North West Scotland:

Wind speed 16mph

Temp 12c

Pressure 998mb

Wave Height 11ft

M4 Buoy Northern Ireland:

Wind speed 21mph

Temp 14c

Pressure 995mb

Wave Height 6ft

M3 Buoy South Ireland

Wind speed 22mph

Temp 17c

Pressure 988mb

Wave Height 6ft

62125 Buoy North East England

Wind speed 7mph

Temp 15c

Pressure 992mb

Wave Height 2ft

62114 Buoy North East Scotland

Wind speed 14mph

Temp 14c

Pressure 1001mb

Wave Height 3ft

m3 buoy -4mb but 62125 Buoy -9mb

[Jan 87]

it will not feel 'cold' today as warm fronts are spreading Tropical air northwards.

below is the latest sat picc and comments.

As the two air masses mix, it could get very interesting. Where do you see the main areas for storms tomorrow?

[johnholmes]

through Wales and England

[Roger J Smith]

Development is likely to become quite rapid this evening as 12z upper air reveals jetmax of 130 knots (250 mbs) just to the southwest of Valentia (at that time), and based on current radar over southern Ireland, there could be widespread thunder developing across Wales, southwest England and the Severn valley before midnight and other parts of south central to southeast England as well as the Midlands and East Anglia a little after midnight. Some of this activity could be heavy to borderline severe. A second cluster of heavy to severe storms is likely to follow when the actual centre of the low, currently around 18W, rushes across central parts of the UK on Wednesday morning to catch up to what will by then be the main energy centre developing out of the leading wave I just described for tonight. This trailing feature should generate some heavy to severe storms mainly in a track from about Somerset and south Wales across the Thames valley towards East Anglia around mid-day Wednesday. Further south storm activity is likely to be more isolated, and further north less severe and more of an embedded situation in the area of moderate rain crossing the north central parts of England in the next 18-24 hours.

I would keep a close eye on radar across the south Wales region in about 2-3 hours to see how fast this development actually takes place, meanwhile I am out the door for the next 8-10 hours so will be lucky to get any chance to look in at this in real time.

[saint]

had more rain then expected they say it may get windier tonight? does anyone know if i should belive them

saint

[johnholmes]

not sufficient to get worried about anything where you are

[The PIT]

I wish you luck Rodger.

For us just a damp drizzly day. Heavier rain forecast for this afternoon didn't turn up either. Wind wise this was never going to effect us. Out of interest anywhere had up 50mph???

Edited August 14, 2007 by The PIT

[phoenixnights]

oh great, i`ve got to go to work soon sounds like it could be fun!

[peterf]

nothing happening here just damp and overcast 16.6c