Hurricane Dean

[stormchaser1]

DEANS TRACK

[Iceberg]

What a beast. !.

We all knew he could do it with a decent eye.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...15.0 N...66.7 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.

Latest update, with 155mph a CAT 5 we are very very close.

The below should equate to surface winds of 130Kt.

URNT12 KNHC 180522

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007

A. 18/05:00:30Z

B. 14 deg 55 min N

066 deg 26 min W

C. 700 mb 2498 m

D. 105 kt

E. 193 deg 004 nm

F. 291 deg 117 kt

G. 197 deg 005 nm

H. 930 mb

I. 12 C/ 3044 m

J. 20 C/ 3055 m

K. 9 C/ NA

L. CLOSED

M. C13

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.03 / 2 nm

P. AF302 0504A DEAN OB 24

MAX FL WIND 138 KT NE QUAD 01:12:20 Z

MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 154KT AT 05:04:00 Z

Edited August 18, 2007 by Iceberg

[tinybill]

about dean from yarhoo

MIAMI (Reuters) - Hurricane Dean is expected to grow into a ferocious Category 5 storm as it passes Jamaica and nears Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and the oil and gas rigs of the Gulf of Mexico after it smashed into several Caribbean islands, the U.S. National Hurricane Centre said on Friday.

(Advertisement)

With winds near 145 mph (230 kph) late on Friday, Dean was a Category 4 storm, the second-highest level on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale and capable of widespread destruction.

The hurricane centre said it was expected to strengthen to Category 5, with top sustained winds in excess of 155 mph (249 kph), before plowing directly over Jamaica toward the Gulf, home to a third of U.S. domestic crude oil and 15 percent of natural gas production.

Dean roared through the narrow channel between the Lesser Antilles islands of St. Lucia and Martinique early Friday, crossing from the Atlantic Ocean to the warm Caribbean Sea.

Its progress was being nervously watched by energy markets, which have been skittish about hurricanes since powerful storms in 2004 and 2005, including Ivan, Katrina and Rita, disrupted oil and gas production. Transocean, Royal Dutch Shell, Murphy Oil and other companies pulled dozens of workers from offshore rigs.

Hurricane warnings were issued for southern areas of Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Dean, the first hurricane of what is expected to be an above-average Atlantic season, lifted the roof off the paediatric wing at Victoria Hospital in St. Lucia's capital, Castries, but patients had already been moved, officials said.

Heraldine Rock, an ex-government minister in the former British colony of 170,000 people, said the storm ripped roofs off houses and damaged at least two banana plantations.

"In one village, telephone and power lines are down. They're strewn all over the road, trees are uprooted and are blocking the roads," she said. "In another village, a landslide has been reported, cutting off any access to the airport."

Deputy Prime Minister Leonard Montoute said at least two people were injured when a tree fell on their home.

"I'm told that the coastal areas have taken a severe battering. There's debris all over Castries in the capital and flood waters on the roads," he said.

HEADING FOR GULF

On neighbouring Martinique, an elderly man died of a heart attack during the storm and six people were injured. The hurricane destroyed all the banana plantations, which employ 10,000 of Martinique's 400,000 residents, and wiped out 70 percent of the sugarcane farms, said Christian Estrosi, France's secretary of state for overseas territories.

"In economic terms the damage is large and even dramatic," said Estrosi, who planned to travel to Martinique on Saturday to announce emergency aid measures.

"We will not leave anybody on the side of the road," he said.

By 4.00 a.m. British time, Dean was 755 miles (1,210 km) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and moving west at about 18 mph (30 kph), the hurricane centre said.

Category 3 to 5 storms, referred to collectively as "major" storms, are generally the most destructive and have included infamous hurricanes like Katrina.

Dean's projected path would put it directly over Jamaica on Sunday and near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or straight into the Gulf of Mexico through the Yucatan Channel by Tuesday.

If it crosses the Yucatan, it is projected to emerge in the southern Gulf and could disrupt operations in the Cantarell Complex of Mexican oil fields, which is one of the world's most productive and supplies two-thirds of Mexico's crude oil output.

Computer models have fluctuated between an eventual landing as far north as Louisiana, which bore the brunt of Rita and Katrina, and Belize, at the southern end of the Yucatan, but began to shift generally more to the south late on Friday.

Forecasters have predicted the six-month 2007 hurricane season would be more active than average with up to 16 named storms. An average year historically has 10 or 11 storms.

(Additional reporting by Michael Christie in Miami, Linda Hutchinson-Jafar in Port of Spain, Laure Bretton, Kerstin Gehmlich and Thierry Leveque in Paris)

[Iceberg]

Latest Doppler shows the eye in very good shape with a hurther outer eye wall starting to form, which would indicate and ERC at some point today.

The eye is still contracting though and most likely intensification is still ongoing pressure sould be down to 920mb with winds to 150 at flight level or higher making Dean a CAT 5, but recon will be needed again to prove this.

He has the classic CAT 5 look on radar, Can't wait for some decent daylight visuals..

As to path, impossible to judge still I think LA is becoming increasingly unlikely , but atm they can't agree on whether Jamaica will be hit or not. My gut says that a direct hit is now likely.

Edited August 18, 2007 by Iceberg

[kold weather]

Well there you go Dean has ramped up underneath decent though not stunning heat content. Winds are already at 150mph and there really is no reason why it won't get higher yet. Sat images show a perfect eye though the cloud tops have warmer just a touch but overall it does have that category-5 look like Iceberg just mentioned and looks extremely well organised. Eye was measured at 13NM wide.

Given the heat content I suspect it will hit Jamaica probably as a low end category-5 as Allen hit fcat-5 in the exact same waters and the only thing that can probably save them is an eyewall replacement. It's all going to be about timings, if it does go attempt an eyewall replacement near Jamaica it will save them from complete desturction however once Dean gets itself organised it will be in even greater waters for heat content that can support some ultra deep pressures as Gilbert,Wilma and Allen have proven before. If it does pass through the western Caribbean after an EWRC then Dean will become an extremely powerful cat-5 out there. The fact that even the NHC go for it is a good sign of its chances.

Its all going to be aobut timing. Like Iceberg has mentioned recon may go in and find a cat-5 this morning though th eonly nagging doubt is the warming cloud tops at a time when they probably should be cooling slightly as the diurnal maximum is pretty close which may also point to some slight inner core changes. Still the eye is pretty clear right now, outflow and inflow is still great as well. I can't wait to see the first Vis. images of Dean today, should be pretty stunning I think.

As for the track, Dean is still moving about 275-280. Some models take Dean north of Jamaica, like the GFDL and HWRF howevr its going to have to morth NW from here if its going to follow those models track and I don't think thats happening based on its current movement clsoe to the west. Worth noting those models both also take Dean extremely close to SW Haiti which would suggest land interaction but its not really moved that much northwards over the last few hours and its going to have to lift soon as its now on the southern side of the models guidence. Needless to say at the very least Haiti is going to get tropical storm force gusts and no doubt possibly as high as hurricane force gusts if it does come as close as the models expect.

The models then take Dean onto Yucatan and they have shifted a touch south since last night but I still think Cancun is at real risk of being hit by a very powerful cat-4/5 hurricane, once again its subject to timings of inner core changes. Needless to say the W.Caribbean supports category-5, indeed it supports sub 910mbs pretty readily and certainly can support far lower.

Models then take it into the gulf and have it hitting N.Mexico and maybe still with S.Texas at real risk ,esp given the GFDL continues to be very far north tohugh I think its intial motion means its not all that likely to come off.

Edited August 18, 2007 by kold weather

[stormchaser1]

Hurricane-4 DEAN (13-18 AUG)

Storm - Max Winds: 130 Min Pres: 930 Category: 4

Current - Max Winds: 130 Min Pres: 930 Category: 4

HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007

0300 UTC SAT AUG 18 2007

AT 11 PM AST...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN

PENINSULA OF HAITI...FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO

PORT-AU-PRINCE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM

PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

AT 11 PM AST...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS

DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND ALL TROPICAL STORM

WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE

LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST

KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN

REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24

HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED

TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN

ISLANDS....U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THESE WARNINGS

WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED ON SATURDAY MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF

THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A

HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN

THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE

PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A

TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING

WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF

MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 65.9W AT 18/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB

EYE DIAMETER 10 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.

64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

50 KT.......100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.

34 KT.......180NE 120SE 100SW 180NW.

12 FT SEAS..375NE 210SE 75SW 375NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 14.9N 65.9W 125 KT

12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 68.4W 130 KT

24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.4N 71.7W 135 KT

36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 75.0W 135 KT

48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.2N 78.4W 135 KT

72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.0N 85.5W 140 KT

96HR VT 22/0000Z 22.5N 91.5W 110 KT

120HR VT 23/0000Z 25.0N 97.5W 110 KT...NEAR COAST OF MEXICO

Tracking information

[kold weather]

Yep next adviosry will up winds to 130kts to reflect the higher winds found last night in recon and then it all depends on what recon finds when it goes in later. I suspect it'll find a low end cat-5 if it gets there in time, maybe 160mph or something like that. Dean following Allen extremely closely right now in terms of both strength and track and the waters supported cat-5 for Allen at this point and so I see no reason to suggest why it can't do so for Dean right now either clearly given its very impressive Sat.presentation.

One thing that hasn't been mentined is Deans possible strength in the gulf of Mexico. this is totally dependant on exactly where it hits the Yucatan and how well organised Dean is at the time of its landfall. It should be noted that while Dean will weaken over land by 1-2 categories the waters in the gulf are just as hot as they ar ein the Caribbean though the heat content isn't as high its still pretty decent and will support a high end cat-4/low end cat-5 as numerous legends from the past have proven before. NHC goes for 125mph but this could easily be up in the 140-150mph range again if it doesn't get disrupted by land too much.

Anyway here is the latest track, historic hurricane if this happens, this could be extremely severe for Jamaica, if Dean hits it would be one of the strongest hurricanes to ever hit the island. Depending on EWRC Dean could also be an extremely deadly hurricane hitting Yucatan and its looking likely even if an EWRC is ongoing its going to hit the Yucatan as at least a cat-4, if not 5. The HWRf for example has Dean landfalling as a 906mbs hurricane which would suggest an extreme cat-5 as well as placing it in the top strongest hurricanes ever. GFDL isn't nearly as strong as it take sit over Haiti and then skims the Cuban coast but even then it eventually goes down tio aobut 916mbs in the gulf. Finally think of this, heat content is nearly as high a sit was in 2005 in the westn Caribbean...and 2005 supported an 882mb hurricane in Wilma...

Anyway here is a track for saving, NHC doesn't often call for cat-5 unless its going to actually happen, looks like Dean wll join a select group:

gotta fell sorry for those in the path of Dean, its a beast for sure, the only thing thatsave the island now is land interaction with Haiti ( which is looking more and more unlikely now given its not picked up much latitude recently) and EWRC.

We will see what shape Dean is in when recon gets there, i'd expect at least a borderline cat-5.

Edited August 18, 2007 by kold weather

[Iceberg]

Not long too go now.

It's worth saying that a CAT 5 hit is very very rare, CAT 5's tend to weaken before hitting land Katrina and Rita never achieved it. So things look very bad for Jamaica.

IMO a storm like this does 3 things. It will even continue to intensify until the pressure can't be maintained. It will produce a ragged eye and slowly leak pressure or it will undergo an ERC and loss pressure.

They don't tend to stay still.

Dean is still very much in phase 1, the eye is still pretty perfect and continued intensification has to be the most likely option with this in mind Recon will IMO find sub 920 possiblt 915mb with 145Kt surface winds. I am not saying that the advisory will call this although they might go upto a CAT 5 just.

Staying as a 130Kt cat 4 for now then

SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE...THE

INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH

72 HR DUE TO INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MAXIMUM

POTENTIAL INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANT

FLUCTUATIONS ON TOP OF THIS DUE TO DIFFICULT TO TIME EYEWALL

REPLACEMENT CYCLES. PASSAGE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD

CAUSE SOME WEAKENING...FOLLOWED BY RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE GULF

OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0900Z 15.1N 67.3W 130 KT

[kold weather]

Its annoying because I've got to go out for most of the day so I'll probably miss it go cat-5, hopefully it doesn't start an eyewall replacement cycle before I come back!

By the way I'll probably stay for Dean's landflals if they hit overnight.

The issues for cat-5 is they need nearly perfect set-up for them. This part of the Cairbbean has seen a couple of cat-5's before so clearly it can support them under good condtions like present. Allen holds the deepest pressure in the eastern Caribbean at 911mbs so we should assume the 915-910mbs mark will be the bottom out mark for Dean and once reached the eye won't be able to support any deeper pressure and an eyewall replacement cycle will probably kick in. How strong it remians during this cycle is up for debate as these systems tend to take anything from 6hrs to 24hrs. Given its likely timing it had better be a rather long cycle for the sake of Jamaica, I have a strong feeling that any cycle will probably start in 6-12hrs time then its all up in the air. Jamaica should see a hurricane warning pretty soon.

History strongly suggests that if it times its cycles right Dean could get to 175-190mph in the westn Caribbean and heat content saupports it. Stil ltoo early to know for sure as there is a slim chance of some slight shear then which may hold it back a touch but there is also a very real chance of Dean becoming a legendary hurricane, indeed its already on its way.

Edited August 18, 2007 by kold weather

[Keepster]

Not long too go now.

It's worth saying that a CAT 5 hit is very very rare, CAT 5's tend to weaken before hitting land Katrina and Rita never achieved it. So things look very bad for Jamaica.

IMO a storm like this does 3 things. It will even continue to intensify until the pressure can't be maintained. It will produce a ragged eye and slowly leak pressure or it will undergo an ERC and loss pressure.

They don't tend to stay still.

Dean is still very much in phase 1, the eye is still pretty perfect and continued intensification has to be the most likely option with this in mind Recon will IMO find sub 920 possiblt 915mb with 145Kt surface winds. I am not saying that the advisory will call this although they might go upto a CAT 5 just.

I think you will be right Iceberg. I have been comparing the satellite pictures from the last few hours and it looks to have intensified quite significantly. It has strong banding and a beautiful tight eye, quite similar structure to that of Katrina. I attach a copy of the satellite image i saved from Katrina just as NHC reported a Cat5 175mph monster. Could Dean go that far? Don't rule it out..

What sucks for Jamaica is that Dean will be approaching its shores at sunrise right after its had all night to cool the cloud tops and intensify once more. As already pointed out, only ERC can save it.

Edited August 18, 2007 by Keepster

[Zenarcher]

Looks like this will end on Thursday Morning

Dean is expected to gain speed as it passes over warmer waters. The Hurricane Center says it could turn into a Category 4 storm as it approaches Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Central America on Tuesday.

http://www.1010wins.com/pages/823264.php?c...ontentId=810215

[Paranoid]

Dean could always do what Allen did, as far as i know Allen always looked to make landfall on an area as Category 5 and then dropped down to Cat 3 moments before landfall.

[Iceberg]

Completely agree Paranoid Most 5's do drop just before land, interaction with the land as it approaches normally leads to a pressure leak and corresponding winds speed decline.

I still favour a Texas hit though.

[Gray-Wolf]

My, my what a pretty boy he is this morning! That tight 'water down the plughole' eye makes all the difference dontcha think?

I do detect a trend of models shifting him further north as time moves on.

I wouldn't like to be in my coastal hut on Jamaica right now !

Once through Jamaica we'll have a much better idea as to where he's bound and how much (if any) land he'll bump into on his travels.

I still wouldn't want to be GeeDubya's brother at ther mo though,I guess Texas is it's final destination (couldn't sweep further east than that could it????).

EDIT: I agree with Lando Calrissian, lots of very 'moist' output from Africa to come....not a mass of Saharan dust like last year.

Edited August 18, 2007 by Gray-Wolf

[Bobby]

Very clear eye now. I think Jamaica is going to get flattened by this.

[Cookie]

Intense Hurricane DEAN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Dominican Republic

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours

Haiti

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours

[Gray-Wolf]

Very clear eye now. I think Jamaica is going to get flattened by this.

S'not going to be pretty is it? Plenty of hills in the centre that may mess with Deans stability in the short term but you watch him bounce back once he's back in that warmer water to Jamaica's west.

sub 900mb pressures and strong cat 5 potential (and the cat image shows a streak of near black to the west of Jamaica.......Cat 6????)

Edited August 18, 2007 by Gray-Wolf

[Paranoid]

Is that chart for above sea level? Because all the pressures it shows on there seem to be far below normal for those areas.

[milkmaid]

thank you for the updates ,it's fasinating reading

how many hours has it got before it makes landfall

feel sorry for the people in it's path though

and the pics are amazing

[SMU]

Im not 100% satisfied with the model track consensus just yet-

Each run of the ensemble suite trends north & the potential is still there for a channel runner rather than a yucatan hit-

If you look at this overlay then you will see a Northerly vector becoming into play-

http://www.wrathofnature.com/images/dean.jpg

If this is the case its worst case scenario for wherever it lands- at least with a yucatan hit it the sting may well be taken out- although thats no consolation for that region-

As for Jamaica- well there wont be any beach parties for quite some time as there not likely to be any beach left once the storm surge rolls through-

I will also remind people once again of the heat potential around that island & just the east- its BETTER than the current ocean content that Dean is currently over-

If the eye tracks just offshore over a decent theromcline then I cant see much if any dissipation -

Post this, along the southern tip of cuba is worst case scenario for devlopment-

Exciting but concerning times as well-

S

Edited August 18, 2007 by Steve Murr

[Iceberg]

Agree Steve Dean is currently jogging NW, taking him slightly north of the Official NHC track, (atlhough 4's and 5's always jog depending on eye behaviour). I favour a skirt of the Yucatan with the eye staying offshore and then a Houstan Hit.

Daylight is approaching and recon should be on it's way now.

[Zenarcher]

http://www.noaawatch.gov/2007/dean.php

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20326168/displ...rstry/20289472/

[Iceberg]

Recon are currently recording but are still a way out yet.

Doppler still shows a decent eye, however it is weak in the south and could be near opening.

Edited August 18, 2007 by Iceberg

[Paranoid]

Just noticed something after reading it on the BBC; if Houston is hit, where is space shuttle Endeavour going to land?

[SMU]

Just noticed something after reading it on the BBC; if Houston is hit, where is space shuttle Endeavour going to land?

On the new runway called 'Old Jamaica....'

S

Edited August 18, 2007 by Steve Murr