Hurricane Dean

[Iceberg]

111000 1701N 06559W 6965 03169 0072 +085 +068 115052 053 044 001 00

TS winds being recorded quite far out 53Kt.

It might be awhile before they are able to take off again though......

[Iceberg]

112300 1635N 06646W 6972 03134 9990 +057 +999 111071 076 045 042 05

76Kt so Hurricane force flight winds now.

[Gray-Wolf]

Is that chart for above sea level? Because all the pressures it shows on there seem to be far below normal for those areas.

As I understand things they are models for the possible intensity/pressure for the conditions 'on the ground' at the moment in those areas. I think the site updates twice daily so you'd expect even worse synopsis once the suns up and warming things.

Any sub 900mb centre would be spectacular to see but not to endure.

[Iceberg]

First Pass..

URNT12 KNHC 181212

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007

A. 18/11:51:20Z

B. 15 deg 23 min N

067 deg 52 min W

C. 700 mb 2437 m

D. 121 kt

E. 5 deg 008 nm

F. 137 deg 145 kt

G. 050 deg 008 nm

H. 926 mb

I. 11 C/ 3049 m

J. 23 C/ 3041 m

K. 11 C/ NA

L. CLOSED

M. C12

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF304 0604A DEAN OB 03

MAX FL WIND 145 KT NE QUAD 11:48:40 Z

SMALL HAIL INBOUND NE QUAD

RADAR PRESENTATION EXCELLENT

[tinybill]

http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/trac...namic/main.html

just looking at that the Caribbean going to get flattened. then its tracking on to at the moment to hit land at san ferrnando on the mexico coast at a poss cat 4

Edited August 18, 2007 by tinybill

[SnowBear]

Way too far out to speculate really on US landfall targets, but I have a feeling this one could shoot through between Jamaica and Cuba, possibly clip the far western part of Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico then on to a TX/LA border landfall after a slight recurve while in the Gulf of Mexico. Cameron area again as in 2005.

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks Tiny! from that forcast Jamaica may just avoid a major landfall if Dean drops south a Tad (still flatten large sections of south Jamaica) and keeps his feet in the Carribean. Could make a cat 5 earlier than predicted and thereafter may 'control' his own motion a little more (with EWR cycles slowing and swinging him a bit more north that currently predicted).

If he misses Jam. and pops through the channel at Yucatan then you'll see a lot of worried Yanks buying up water,batteries and wide boards.......

Way too far out to speculate really on US landfall targets, but I have a feeling this one could shoot through between Jamaica and Cuba, possibly clip the far western part of Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico then on to a TX/LA border landfall after a slight recurve while in the Gulf of Mexico. Cameron area again as in 2005.

That would be incredibly bad news and may lead to the final abandonment of large sections of central New Orleans if the defences fail (again). The interuption to oil production if Dean makes it into the Gulf (closing and evacuating platforms, making safe land based oil distilleries) will also lead to the same fun as last time with the yanks buying up tankers already bound for other nations........we love the weather!

[tinybill]

Thanks Tiny! from that forcast Jamaica may just avoid a major landfall if Dean drops south a Tad (still flatten large sections of south Jamaica) and keeps his feet in the Caribbean. Could make a cat 5 earlier than predicted and thereafter may 'control' his own motion a little more (with EWE cycles slowing and swinging him a bit more north that currently predicted).

If he misses Jam. and pops through the channel at Yucatan then you'll see a lot of worried Yanks buying up water,batteries and wide boards.......

That would be incredibly bad news and may lead to the final abandonment of large sections of central New Orleans if the defenses fail (again). The interruption to oil production if Dean makes it into the Gulf (closing and evacuating platforms, making safe land based oil distilleries) will also lead to the same fun as last time with the yanks buying up tankers already bound for other nations........we love the weather!

yes it all depends how far up the coast it hit it the last thing they need in that area

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Great image of Hurricane Dean here.

Clear eye, smooth, billowing cloud tops around the center - powerful storm. Highest sea temps yet to come. What are the best estimates on how large Dean will get - is there a possibility of a Cat 5?

More links:

Here's Dean peaking into the bottom right of this 15 minute GOES colour.

[Paranoid]

GDFL showing 900.6mbar and 177kt 35m winds in 66 hours. HWRF seem to have a lower estimate of strength with 910.9mbar and 122kt 10m winds in 72 hours. Either way doesn't look too good for Jamaica and the Yucutan.

[Gray-Wolf]

From watching the 'floater loop' Dean seems to be tracking a little NW of the plots which would send him closer to the Dom. Rep./Haiti than we figured. Any trips over the mountainous islands (including Cuba) could mess him up quite a bit (as well as the islands hit!) and leave him in the Gulf trying to reorganise whilst the low (over Florida presently) may tend to drift him south again.

Things are never as clear cut as the plots seem to show! in 4hrs the convection will be up to it's max so we could see further changes to the plots if he Cat5's today.

EDIT: in fact his track at the mo. would have him hitting western Cuba (across the shortest bit of the island) and into the Gulf which would leave him pretty much intact but in a far more central position in the Gulf than any of the models show currently. Depending on where our 'Florida Low' is by then could mean trouble for all the U.S. coastline if he ends up on the right of the low as that'd feed him further east before turning north/NW.

Oh how I enjoy these little jaunts!

Edited August 18, 2007 by Gray-Wolf

[mezzacyclone]

yeah GW, the video loop seems to show a more notherly swing on the last few graphics, not what Floridians hoped for as Wilma Oct 05 (882mb low to be broke by Dean?) took an 80' deg swing NE from NW traj after touching the Yucatan peninsula and devastated Southern Florida,,,The suspense would be unreal living down their following where these monsters are going!

(Saffir simpson to introduce a Cat5E? Enhanced like ethernet network cabling? lol)

[Iceberg]

Dean seems to be following the 00Z GFDL, a Touch into Cuba isn't out of the question nor is a pass to the north of Jamaica.

The eye at the moment is around 30-40 miles north of the NHC forecast path. So it might well be adjusted northwards in the next 30 mins.

As to being a CAT 5 Dean will almsot certainly be a CAT 5 at some point, even the NHC admit that.

Recon now leaving and didn't really find much else Dean would have 145KT flight winds were found indicating 130Kt surface speeds(indeed 120KT at surface was recorded).

Dean's eye is still very much intact and an ERC is not really in sight atm. He's just going out of range of Doppler now (until Cancun). Pressure has been falling a bit extrapolated but not measured pressure was down to 920mb although this won't count.

So Dean remains a strong CAT 4 3 or 4 Kt below a CAT 5 IMO.

[Calrissian]

Just noticed something after reading it on the BBC; if Houston is hit, where is space shuttle Endeavour going to land?

Where it usually lands. Florida. (or their backup sites in California)

*Shuttle will probably undock today - earlier than scheduled, because they want it down on the ground, so that Houston flight control will all be manned.

Houston is certainly a possible target.

--

Without getting too hysterical (easily done with such amazing storms), are we looking at our first super cat'6 storm. Yes, I know we have no such classification, but anyway...

The sea temps just get EVER higher as Dean moves west and northward, from the current 28s to 30/31.

see: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATANL_ATLSST/recent.html

When you consider that max' potencial pressures are distinctly indicated as possibly below 900mb, are we indeed looking at something we've never seen before ?

Might we see next week, Dean....in the gulf of mexico, blasting away at a steady 200mph, 875mb, and freaking everyone out...as it is starts to curve more northward?

All the factors are looking very very favourable for Dean to become the Demon that some are starting to believe he might be.

Demonic Dean, the beast of 2007 ?

Calrissian: time for lunch

[tinybill]

Where it usually lands. Florida. (or their backup sites in California)

*Shuttle will probably undock today - earlier than scheduled, because they want it down on the ground, so that Houston flight control will all be manned.

Houston is certainly a possible target.

--

Without getting too hysterical (easily done with such amazing storms), are we looking at our first super cat'6 storm. Yes, I know we have no such classification, but anyway...

The sea temps just get EVER higher as Dean moves west and northward, from the current 28s to 30/31.

see: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATANL_ATLSST/recent.html

When you consider that max' potencial pressures are distinctly indicated as possibly below 900mb, are we indeed looking at something we've never seen before ?

Might we see next week, Dean....in the gulf of mexico, blasting away at a steady 200mph, 875mb, and freaking everyone out...as it is starts to curve more northward?

All the factors are looking very very favourable for Dean to become the Demon that some are starting to believe he might be.

Demonic Dean, the beast of 2007 ?

Calrissian: time for lunch

i wonder what the people in new orleans are thinking with this monster which could easily vist them at the moment

[Paranoid]

Probably along the lines of "Not again..."

[dogs32]

Is the path of it heading for Jamaca and then do they know where else they think it might go....cat5....realy cat6???tempted to jump on a plane to see it in itspath

If you was going there to see it where would you head for before it arrives..anyone?

Edited August 18, 2007 by dogs32

[Iceberg]

NHC forecast a CAT 5 Hit on Jamaica then going back upto CAT 5 again for a hit near Cancun beyond that is anybody's guess.

Dean will almost certainly not get below 880 there is the general feeling that it's virtually impossible in the Atlantic.

DEAN WILL LIKELY GO THROUGH EYEWALL CYCLES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS

RESULTING IN FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE PEAK

INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN

BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND YUCATAN WHERE THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT

IS VERY HIGH. DEAN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE AT ANY TIME BEFORE

IT REACHES YUCATAN.

THE STEERING PATTERN HAS BEEN VERY STEADY. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE

WEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS STEERED BY A HIGH OVER THE WESTERN

ATLANTIC AND A LOW OVER FLORIDA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE

WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS.

THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP DEAN ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST

TRACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE DIRECTION OF JAMAICA...THE

CAYMAN ISLANDS AND YUCATAN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK MODELS

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH INSISTS ON A TRACK FARTHER TO

THE NORTH AND JUST CLIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

[tinybill]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...ind120#contents

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...l?5day#contents

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...ind120#contents

if that any help

[Calrissian]

Dean will almost certainly not get below 880 there is the general feeling that it's virtually impossible in the Atlantic.

okie, I'll remind you of that sometime soon.

*if 882mb (Wilma' 2005) was possible, I see little reason why 870, and even lower is not well within the realms of happening. We have very limited records of such storms, and I've no doubt at at all there have been some crazy storms across the centuries.

Calrissian: lunchtime

[dogs32]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...ind120#contents

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...l?5day#contents

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...ind120#contents

if that any help

Thats helpfull tiny bill...If it swung more north into Texas /Or florida (center)might be tempted to catch a plane.The problem is being in the right place to do some filming on video and to get there before they shut the airports.See what happens

Edited August 18, 2007 by dogs32

[Iceberg]

I am not sure of the physics of it, but the atmosphere basically just can't hold that much pressure (at least that's the thought!).

The eye is now open in the south and is leaking pressure, for any more intensification an ERC is required, unless Dean can patch his self up.

[Calrissian]

I am not sure of the physics of it, but the atmosphere basically just can't hold that much pressure (at least that's the thought!).

The eye is now open in the south and is leaking pressure, for any more intensification an ERC is required, unless Dean can patch his self up.

hang on.

I've read about this 'leaking', but its the OTHER way around, right?

The pressure is LOW in the middle, thus an 'absense' of as much air as outside the storm.

So, its a matter of the suction upwards not being strong enough, and thus the air fills in/equalises, as would be normal on a calm day.

*For those I've know who ask me what a cane is, I've always told them, just think of a giant spinning vacumn cleaner. Air in at the base, and thrown out in spirals at the top. Simple really.

Thinking the impossible ?

I think those who suggest <880mb is 'impossible' are really a bit short sighted. There is NO such rule that says the pressure can't go below that. It'd sure take one hell of a storm - which would require most/all variables in its favour, but its certainly possible.

Dean may well we remembered as the storm that reminded the weather watching freaks (myself included) to always keep an open mind as to what can happen in the environment. As I said earlier, we've only got a few decades of even basic measurements to reflect on. To assume 'we've seen all thats possible', thats bad science.

Calrissian: eyes sharp on Dean

[Iceberg]

Yep a boat leaks, i.e water comes in.

Hope your right Calrissian, I would love to see an 870mb cane. But I won't be holding my breath.

Recon is back in again and measureing 80+Kt.

Edited August 18, 2007 by Iceberg

[Calrissian]

Yep a boat leaks, i.e water comes in.

I would love to see an 870mb cane. But I won't be holding my breath.

Recon is back in again and measureing 80+Kt.

I'd like to see one too, but I will add that even a 50mph severe gale scares the hell out of me.

---

Hurricane Coverage - LIVE FEED from the ISS

http://playlist.yahoo.com/makeplaylist.dll...;segment=149773

Estimated time when Astronauts are working whilst over Dean - 5.40pm, should be some superb coverage of it. There will be a similar track 90mins later around 6.45-7pm.

Calrissian: awaiting the spectacular view.