Hurricane Dean

[Iceberg]

A. 18/16:14:30Z

B. 15 deg 46 min N

069 deg 02 min W

C. 700 mb 2488 m

D. 119 kt

E. 018 deg 8 nm

F. 113 deg 128 kt

G. 018 deg 008 nm

H. 930 mb

I. 9 C/ 3050 m

J. 20 C/ 3046 m

K. 11 C/ NA

L. OPEN S

M. C11

N. 12345/7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF304 0604A DEAN OB 21

MAX FL WIND 128 KT N QUAD 16:12:00 Z

NORTH EYEWALL HAS DOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE

Starting an ERC it would seem winds not too strong but pressure holding up quite well.

[Blackie]

Hurricane Coverage - LIVE FEED from the ISS

http://playlist.yahoo.com/makeplaylist.dll...;segment=149773

Estimated time when Astronauts are working whilst over Dean - 5.40pm, should be some superb coverage of it. There will be a similar track 90mins later around 6.45-7pm.

Calrissian: awaiting the spectacular view.

Wow

That was pretty impressive, and really gave an idea of how big Dean is now.

Thanks for the link Calrissian.

[androcles]

That was beautiful and I just caught it as it approached Dean.

I saw it go past last Sat and Sun evenings - ISS that is - and it was quite a site.

Very bright.

Ain't gonna see that again soon with this weather......

If any of you missed the fly-by of Hurricane Dean and the ISS, it's on again about 1815.

[Calrissian]

I'm glad you liked that little link.

As noted, another pass - this time, just to the west of Dean, sometime around 6.45-7pm. Worth waiting for I'd say, besides, the ISS construction coverage is always must-see viewing in my view.

--

Meanwhile, Dean marches west..and a little bit more north. I know someone in Jamaica, and she lacks an underground bunker. Sadly, most other locals do, the nastiness is clearly not too far away from them now. Just what are those people in the shacks supposed to do anyway?

Calrissian: awaiting the next Dean pass.

[androcles]

Hey Cal.

I found this link only last week and, as you say, it it is compulsive 'must-see' viewing. Really fascinating.

Looks like shuttle might be back early.

[crimsone]

I had a really bad feeling about Dean even a few days ago when we were waiting for it to reach Cat2... Wilma was a breed of her own, and as such holds the record for the deepest pressure... I'm not going to rule out the possibility that Dean could at least get close. I strongly suspect that this name is getting retired... gawd help anybody in it's path.

If the worst cam to the absolute worst though and we saw a hit in LA, the one saving grace for New Orleans is that Dean would be approaching the river in the wrong (and thus least problematic) direction, and so lessening the surge)... an unlikely track at the moment though.

Edited August 18, 2007 by crimsone

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Hurricane Dean is now passing through a belt of dry air, shown brown in the link - will this affect the intensity of the storm or will the higher sea temps have more of an effect?

[Calrissian]

I am aware of a few hurricane people (semi-professional) flying off to Jamaica, who are going to find somewhere 'secure' in the hills, and take some video of what a cat4/5 storm does to an island.

Crazy, yes, but I am sure there will be some freaky/amazing video footage of Dean, that will appear on the various youtube type sites in the coming week.

Calrissian: awaiting the 6.45 Dean/ISS pass.

[January Snowstorm]

Mondy sorely missed on here for his updates

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Mondy sorely missed on here for his updates

I agree. Presumably banned for something unrelated to the weather boards which makes his loss that much sader - and hard to understand as he was a valued contributor always with good links, my bookmarks will be for the less without Mondy.

[crimsone]

Well, I learned somethng today... you cant take a screendump of a movie on Windows Media Player and paste it into photoshop.... the movie plays in the photoshop window too.

[Iceberg]

170630 1554N 06909W 6935 02679 9990 +104 +999 153123 132 118 022 05

170700 1555N 06907W 7004 02670 9990 +088 +999 150129 133 110 025 05

170730 1555N 06906W 6945 02785 9584 +102 +102 150122 123 101 042 03

170800 1556N 06905W 6973 02791 9630 +110 +110 150116 123 097 030 03

A range of 120-133Kt's recorded, pressure still around the 930 mark, unless higher values are found Dean will be downgraded to 125Kt I think.

[Calrissian]

Well, I learned somethng today... you cant take a screendump of a movie on Windows Media Player and paste it into photoshop.... the movie plays in the photoshop window too.

You can. Just turn down the 'video acceleration' (in tools, hardware config) a notch or two. Should work for you.

--

Its certainly been a hectic 24 hours, and we are still 5, 6, or even more days until the final landfall and breakup of Dean. A hell of a long way to go, one wild ride for the weather fanatics, and one scary experience for those in the path.

Calrissian: time for tea ?

[Jayces]

Well, I learned somethng today... you cant take a screendump of a movie on Windows Media Player and paste it into photoshop.... the movie plays in the photoshop window too.

I know it's old fashioned but print screen and then pasting into paint works.

Scrap that, I lied sorry

Edited August 18, 2007 by Jayces

[Iceberg]

MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 133 KT NE QUAD 17:06:50

CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE

ERC underway, with the very little pressure drop noticed it looks like Dean might well handle this very well, unfortunately for Jamaica.

[Gray-Wolf]

So far as the potential pressure the graphic I posted this a.m. shows Jamaica ,and all along the south of Cuba, with the potential to go sub 880mb. Time alone will tell eh?

[Paranoid]

Will Dean get to Category 5? He seemed to be strengthening all day but once getting to 150mph the intensification just seemed to stop. I expect Dean will probably drop to Category 2 or 3 whilst passing over Jamaica, so that might impair his ability to reach Cat 5, as i don't think there's enough time for Dean to intensify from Cat 3 to 5 between Jamaica and the Yucutan.

Edited August 18, 2007 by Paranoid

[Iceberg]

I don't think Dean will weaken too much over Jamaica, If the Eye stays offshore then it will be barely noticable, it should have time after this ERC to strengthen again before reaching Jamaica, with a chance depending on his own charecteristics of reaching a CAT 5.

Dean's done very very well to get down to sub 930 on the one real eye he's had.

[Paranoid]

Hurricane Dean seems to be exactly the same strength as Hurricane Dennis was in 2005. Did Dennis have a similar track or did he move more northerly?

Edited August 18, 2007 by Paranoid

[crimsone]

OK... I'm just going to record the stream if the opportunity arises, and then I can take all the screendumps I like at my leisure! lol

Does anybody know if we're likely to see another pass of dean or a replay of the earlier one from the nasa video stream?

[tinybill]

just been watching fox news weather jamica will get a direct hit within 69 hours with winds up to 150 ,should be cat 4-5

[Gray-Wolf]

After watching the Atlantic wide loop (WV) the 'Florida low' seems to have made much better progress south than we were first led to believe and consequently the chances of Dean (James Dean as he's sooo handsome) making a 'right turn' over Cuba (west of St. Clara) start to look like more of a possibility to me.

Dean in the East Gulf, tracking NNW, is a whole different kettle of (spinning) fish.

[Thunder Snow]

Do we have a sat picture of dean.

[Calrissian]

Hurricane Dean seems to be exactly the same strength as Hurricane Dennis was in 2005. Did Dennis have a similar track or did he move more northerly?

see: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlant...ENNIS/track.gif

Dennis was very much a strongly moving north-westerly cane. He also started much further west, rather than Dean who developed shortly after leaving the west African coastline.

Track maps - (including current data) http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/

Calrissian: historically accurate.

[Zenarcher]

http://www.noaawatch.gov/2007/dean.php

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_pictures/6952788.stm