Hurricane Dean

[Iceberg]

Yet another one.

00

URNT12 KNHC 190540

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007

A. 19/05:11:00Z

B. 16 deg 19 min N

072 deg 20 min W

C. 700 mb 2409 m

D. 100 kt

E. 135 deg 018 nm

F. 225 deg 105 kt

G. 135 deg 012 nm

H. 923 mb

I. 8 C/ 3046 m

J. 16 C/ 3048 m

K. 16 C/ NA

L. CLOSED

M. C23

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF302 0704A DEAN OB 33

MAX FL WIND 130 KT NE QUAD 05:16:40 Z

INNER EYEWALL REMNANTS E060/13/11

At least 130Kt has been recorded so winds are probably increasing a bit after the pressure drop of the last 6 hours or so.

[Iceberg]

Hope this is right as I am a bit rusty about these things.

We how have the new eye circular with a 23 mile diameter, looking good on sat.

The old eye is now elliptical and larger on the stronger NE side, viewable on the sat pic attached.

I am assuming that once the old eye wall has completely gone it will allow the new one to contract reducing pressure and increasing winds speeds.

[Iceberg]

The old eye wall looks to have completely gone now.

Also looks like the path will NOT have a direct hit on Jamaica, not much to be too cheerful about though because it will put it directly in the path of the strongest winds.

[tinybill]

the track has moved it looks like its going more over land now before its gets in to the gom at the moment it looks like its going to hit Mexico some were near tampico that what my eye of the storm 300 is saying this morning

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...ind120#contents

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...l?5day#contents

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...ind120#contents

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...?large#contents

Edited August 19, 2007 by tinybill

[kold weather]

Highest winds found by recon last night appears to be 129kts which equates to about 115kts at the surface roughly, though the NHC only dropped strength to 125kts simply because the EWRC may well be getting closer to finishing. Latest images show new eye is showing signs of starting to clear out some lower level cloud. Until that is complete then the pressue will stay rising for a little while until it clears, though that likely will occur sooner rather then later as its heading back into high heat content again now. The track keeps getting slightly adjusted south which means that Dean is goin to go over slightly less impressive heat content then was first forecasted which may have a limiting effect on how deep Dean can actually go, though note heat content is still higher then anything its had so far in its journey.

Jamaica spared a direct hit....but instead will take a blow from the most intense N.eyewall, which in some ways is probably even worse for the islands as they'll take the brunt of the highest winds in the hurricane.

Edited August 19, 2007 by kold weather

[milkmaid]

thank you for all the updates ,

[Zenarcher]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...3527.shtml?5day

Edited August 19, 2007 by weathermaster

[SnowBear]

I think, now that the eye replacement is just about over, this one could bomb straight to Cat5 very quickly.

Noticed Kold and Iceberg saying about being rusty on tracking etc, yep, me too lol Is a couple of years now since we all tracked a major indeed!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

Rainbow loop showing an big increase around the eye in the last frame as the eyewall restructures. Also shows the low in the Gulf of Mexico blooming a rash of storms and showers which on the Water Vapour loop shows up more along with the circulation, an area I am watching along with H.Dean. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html Note also the dry air to the North East of h.Dean being pushed out into the Atlantic over the Bahamas, this slowly lessens the possibility of H.dean dragging in dry air from that area.

Track of H.Dean? Not so sure at the moment, I think Jamaica will still see an eye landfall. Its going to be close.

[SnowBear]

Treasure Beach webcam, on the south coast of Jamaica, St. Elizabeth.

Not many webcams for Jamaica, this one seems to be the only one I can find that is refreshing in near real time.

http://www.cebullaassociates.net/cam4.htm

[Calrissian]

Good morning all.

Well, after a late night, I'm up, and well, it sure looks like Jamaica is remaining right on target.

Indeed, this is looks to be about as bad a situation as you can get. Dean will probably intensify by the time its near the coast, and then may well hold strength all the way across.

Devastation looms ahead.

Calrissian: time for breakfast.

[tinybill]

Good morning all.

Well, after a late night, I'm up, and well, it sure looks like Jamaica is remaining right on target.

Indeed, this is looks to be about as bad a situation as you can get. Dean will probably intensify by the time its near the coast, and then may well hold strength all the way across.

Devastation looms ahead.

Calrissian: time for breakfast.

all eyes on fox news later to-day

[Paranoid]

Usually i find Fox news is completley oblivious to Hurricanes unless they're heading for America.

[milkmaid]

has anyone got any links to what is going on on the ground ,i'm no good at finding stuff on the net

i've book marked the web cam

[justinflavin]

its top billing on the fox news site

http://www.foxnews.com/

thousands of tourists trying to fly out.

[Cookie]

just had fox news on they where covering it as thier main story they semeed realived that it dosent look at the moment that it will hit the usa

[justinflavin]

has anyone got any links to what is going on on the ground ,i'm no good at finding stuff on the net

i've book marked the web cam

jamaica observer (local newspaper)

http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/

national hurricane center

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

dean satellite image (updates every 30 minutes)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

[justinflavin]

stormchaser blog - live from jamaica

http://www.stormvideographer.com/blog/

worth bookmarking that one.

[Calrissian]

just had fox news on they where covering it as thier main story they semeed realived that it dosent look at the moment that it will hit the usa

yeah, what a surprise, USA not giving a hoot, so long as it doesn't hit their blessed mainland.

Calrissian: to hell with FOX, aka, NNBC (Nazi News Broadcasting Corp.)

[Cookie]

yeah, what a surprise, USA not giving a hoot, so long as it doesn't hit their blessed mainland.

Calrissian: to hell with FOX, aka, NNBC (Nazi News Broadcasting Corp.)

I just hope for thier sake they arent getting realvied to soon!

[Paranoid]

HWRF predicting a low pressure of 898.7 now.

[SnowBear]

Looking likely the eye will skim right along the SW coast of Jamaica meaning the NE eyewall will be right over the main part of the island. Not good at all.

[milkmaid]

thank you for the links

[justinflavin]

another one to bookmark - weather channel video player

http://www.weather.com/multimedia/videopla...=wxcenter_video

its got a few user-submitted videos of Dean from St. Lucia

and they also have a reporter & camera crew in Jamaica right now.

[Gray-Wolf]

A little bit of a sideline here and it'll probably come to nought but that low that slipped off Florida yesterday (allowing in the H.P. Ridge that'll keep Dean on the straight and narrow) is now in the central gulf and just starting to 'bubble' as the sun gets to work on it.

I wonder how big the storms in it's centre will get today and if....and it's a big 'if' it does blossom into a stormy mass whether it'll have an impact on Dean's boring (unless you're Jamaican) straight line dive into Mexico?

[justinflavin]

A little bit of a sideline here and it'll probably come to nought but that low that slipped off Florida yesterday (allowing in the H.P. Ridge that'll keep Dean on the straight and narrow) is now in the central gulf and just starting to 'bubble' as the sun gets to work on it.

I wonder how big the storms in it's centre will get today and if....and it's a big 'if' it does blossom into a stormy mass whether it'll have an impact on Dean's boring (unless you're Jamaican) straight line dive into Mexico?

you mean this circular mass right in the middle of the gulf?

water vapour image:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html

rotation is clearly visible in this image loop:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Edited August 19, 2007 by justinflavin