Hurricane Dean

[crimsone]

yes. lol lol lol

...and Dean's core is a day closer to deciding what it's going to do.

[tinybill]

space centre now in the gom dean shortly

[*Stormforce~beka*]

We missed it as its going up the east coast now? Right enough of this im off to eat!

[rc28]

Great close-up high res pic of dean's eye here;

http://www.nowpublic.com/more-pics-hurrica...-crew-members-1

[Iceberg]

Another quick update.

The link below has hourly conditions at Kingston.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MKJP.html

Final vortex doesn't really add much still 145Kt flight winds and pressure at 930mb

The eye really seems to have enlarged and become pretty stable, the talk of an further outer eye wall is strange, Dean seems to have spent alot of time with 2 eye walls without it having a great effect. It will almost certainly pass to the south to the south of Jamaica approx 40 miles I would think.

Edited August 19, 2007 by Iceberg

[rc28]

I was just listening to the jamaican radio and they said Dean is now a category 3, they seemed to be quoting an NHC forecast. Have they made a mistake or has Dean really been downgraded to cat3?

[Somerset Squall]

Still a cat 4 as far as I am aware, the NHC also still quotes DEAN as a cat 4.

Edited August 19, 2007 by Somerset Squall

[Paranoid]

If Dean continues to have this second eyewall then i don't think he'll get much stronger than he is now.

[Roger J Smith]

Looks to me as though this will turn out to be a very close near miss for populated areas, at least in terms of major hurricane damage, certainly there will be plenty of minor damage from cat-1 to 2 winds in southern Jamaica but the southern tip of the island is not highly populated and this is where cat-3 winds might come ashore for a time, the eyewall seems to be headed more west than northwest and should narrowly avoid an encounter with most of the island. As to rainfall, that could be a different story and last time I looked the Jamaica gov't radar was showing an event from February 07, complete with a non-existent landmass to the south of Jamaica that appears to be an inset of Grand Cayman.

Somebody fix de radar, mon.

[crimsone]

That's something I'm thinking as well Paranoid... either it's near maxed out under the conditions it's in (which I don't think is the case), or it simply can't make it's mind up at the moment!

Edited August 19, 2007 by crimsone

[Iceberg]

ERC's are a pain in the neck, most canes always have trouble with them. All you can do is best guess. I agree that Dean won't go below 920 without an ERC. At the moment though the inner eye looks in really good form.

[Calrissian]

Man alive, this is really a close run thing now.

The next hour will be critical, will Dean slip a bit west, or might Kingston still be in trouble?

The Jim Williams show is now up and running from his hurricane bunker (although he seems to be content to not talk right now)

- http://www.hurricanecity.com/live1.htm

Calrissian: in awe of the monster

[Iceberg]

Kingston is now recording sub 1000mb pressure still little wind though.

[Hurricane Debby]

Are we all tuned in to......

http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/live_tv.html

....for the next run over H Dean in five minutes or so.

Right click on image and go 'Full view'

Thanks for that link androcles. Fantastic !!

[SMU]

Evening All-

As we approach the 11th hour for Jamaica things might be taking a turn for the worse-

Here is the current loop of hurricane dean-

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_.../anim16vis.html

& a close up- tx to weatherman21-

http://i178.photobucket.com/albums/w253/we...visat19-01z.png

As you can see a clear drif to the North as it heads towards the vicinity of Jamaica...

Also the System is now developing into a deeper more powerful Hurricane-

Using the radar to look at the temperature of the cloud tops we need to see cooling close to the eye- the more substantial this is the stronger the hurricane is becoming-

These 2 Gempak images show quite clearly that we are in a developing stage-

http://www.usawx.com/19th11gempak.gif image 1

http://www.usawx.com/19th12gempak.gif image 2

Should the 'jog' northwards continue then Cat 4 surface winds will rip into Southern Jamaica.

The outer convection is shrinking & the eyewall also looks to be contracting-

The next 12-18 hours will be a wild ride..............

S

Edited August 19, 2007 by Steve Murr

[Somerset Squall]

- http://www.hurricanecity.com/live1.htm

Thanks Calrissian.

[androcles]

Thanks for that link androcles. Fantastic !!

Hi Debs.

You're welcome.

Andy

[Calrissian]

I think if you stick with the Jim Williams feed for the night, you'll get all the coverage you can want.

A great evening ahead, from a distant observers point of view. For the locals, its a night to remember too, but from the other end of the scale of Fun>Terror !

Calrissian: eyes on Dean

[Iceberg]

Def agree Steve re in inner eye, it certainly doesn't look like it's on the verge of going any time soon. The cooling cloud tops will hopefully be fueling the second outer eye so that it can gain dominance.

Not sure about the jog north still looks dead on the NHC track to me, but the next 2 pics will confirm.

[SMU]

Def agree Steve re in inner eye, it certainly doesn't look like it's on the verge of going any time soon. The cooling cloud tops will hopefully be fueling the second outer eye so that it can gain dominance.

Not sure about the jog north still looks dead on the NHC track to me, but the next 2 pics will confirm.

yep jog or wobble..... to soon to be sure....

S

[Shaun L]

Are there any links for upto the minute info as we have friends who arrived in Jamaica on Thurs but who cannot be evacuated so they have been told to stay in the rooms and baracade themselves in with the matresses. :o

[Hurricane Debby]

Hi Debs.

You're welcome.

Andy

I'm totally addicted ! Tell me, and forgive me if I am being thick but do hurricanes affect landings at the space station as well then ??? I'm watching it live now at some conference they are giving and thats what it sounds like..

[androcles]

I'm totally addicted ! Tell me, and forgive me if I am being thick but do hurricanes affect landings at the space station as well then ??? I'm watching it live now at some conference they are giving and thats what it sounds like..

As they are saying right now at the conference, there could be times when a hurricane would affect a landing of the SST. In this case they are coming home Tuesday when they have, I believe, two windows to get into Florida - a morning landing and an afternoon landing. The later landing would bring them in directly over H Dean but about 180,000 feet above it before a landing onto runway 15. Failing that for any reason they have Edwards in California, which is and won't be affected by H Dean or a third place which also won't.

Hope that helps.

[SMU]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

The extrapolated track takes dean approx 20 to 30 miles South of the island-

Good for Jamaica as the very Worst of the winds are offshore-

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv.jpg

Water vapour hits the South side the hardest...

This though ensures no interaction with any terrain over the island that could halt the development-

One locals good news in Jamaica could be another mans devestation in Yucatan.......

S

[androcles]

Just found this too....

http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/facility/sts-els.htm