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Hurricane Dean

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crimsone Rising Star

crimsone

Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
Posted (edited)

It's possible that the pressure has not risen since the last advisory... the last vortex message states that they couldn't get a fix on the center, and so it's possible that they didn't record the lowest pressure.

If in fact the pressure was rising though, the size of the storm would mean that the wind speeds would take some time to respond to it. If the inner eye is indeed constricting though, barring the eye being cloud-filled, some deepening may possibly be expected soon...

I think I'll start trying to follow the recon HDObs again... though with two concurrent flights taking readings I'm finding it difficult to keep track.

Edited by crimsone
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Calrissian Newbie

Calrissian

Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Location: London, UK
Posted

Arghhh...

Damn charts...some sites are straining a bit under the load of all the weather freaks logging in.

Managed to find this one again...

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/gifc9p08I5EDM.gif

I think it has it too far south, but again, its showing Cat'5 status occuring in about 10 hours or so.

-

*meanwhile, on the powerfm feed (via hurricane city), people whining about lack of water. They simply not prepared enough, expecting the government to somehow magically keep the utilities open. In fact, they are planning to shut the power off anyway sometime today, which will mean no mains water.

Calrissian: stressed.

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crimsone Rising Star

crimsone

Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
Posted (edited)

I just thought... is Kold Weather taking a day off today? Not that he's missed much so far today, though I have a feeling things may get interesting a little later.

Edited by crimsone
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androcles Newbie

androcles

Posted
  • Location: Ash, Surrey/Hampshire Border Farnborough 4 miles
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: Ash, Surrey/Hampshire Border Farnborough 4 miles
Posted

Check this guys.

ISS and shuttle are going right over Dean in 6 minutes........

...live here......

http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/live_tv.html

Go For It! Now!

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Calrissian Newbie

Calrissian

Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Location: London, UK
Posted

Well, still 3 or 4 hours until 'prime time viewing' starts.

Looking at the latest Dvorak, another little NW movement, subtle, but its there. If current course continues, the eye will cover/clip at least the western quarter of Jamaica. Not much for Montego Bay residents with a 15-20ft storm surge+ waves.

Calrissian: this posting sponsored by Bunkers-for-U, your specialist seller of Cat'10 proof underground apartments.

Dude, thanks for the heads-up.

Calrissian: back onboard ISS !

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SnowBear Maestro

SnowBear

Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
Posted

More I look at the loops the more I think the eye will miss the main island itself.

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androcles Newbie

androcles

Posted
  • Location: Ash, Surrey/Hampshire Border Farnborough 4 miles
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: Ash, Surrey/Hampshire Border Farnborough 4 miles
Posted

What a bummer....we lost the link to ISS.

Repeating it again in about 5 mins.

http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/live_tv.html

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Calrissian Newbie

Calrissian

Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Location: London, UK
Posted

Superb ISS/Shuttle coverage of Dean coming right up.

---

A glimpse of the eye would be great, and it'll be even more up to date than anywhere else in the world will have !

Calrissian: can't wait for the pics/video

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Amazing Shot and yup you can see the eye although it looks fairly cloudy. The storms massive.

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androcles Newbie

androcles

Posted
  • Location: Ash, Surrey/Hampshire Border Farnborough 4 miles
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: Ash, Surrey/Hampshire Border Farnborough 4 miles
Posted (edited)

They did mention that the next pass would be further to the west and have more 'oblique views of the eye.' In about one hours time so don't forget to tune in then people.

Edited by androcles
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crimsone Rising Star

crimsone

Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
Posted

yep... once again I missed recording it... my software fouled up. lol... still I have direct links to the stream now... if it comes up again later I should be able to get it. :D

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Calrissian Newbie

Calrissian

Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Location: London, UK
Posted

Yes, we have another ISS pass -this one to the west, around 7.10pm UK. Well worth seeing.

--

Meanwhile, Dean - according to some, has a 'stadium effect' eye. Hmm. I really don't know myself, except that it does seem the eye wall will clip at least part of the western quarter of Jamaica.

So many variables, but looking pretty dire for the island.

Calrissian: back for the next pass.

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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
  • Author
Posted

Not been here all day, what's surprising is the swave of 100+ KT winds to the North East of Dean, very large.

A quick vis picture.

All kinds of things happening to dean's eye but not really having any great effect 145Kt flight winds support 130Kt at surface as does the pressure reading. So a strong CAT 4 will be hitting Jamaica unfortunately.

Nowhere on Jamaica will escape 130+ mph winds so things look bad. Unlike New Orleans people don't have anywhere to go to escape the winds.....

Recon just leaving again typically, will post up latest vortex recon (they are still sitting on one unreleased) when it's published.

Matt

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androcles Newbie

androcles

Posted
  • Location: Ash, Surrey/Hampshire Border Farnborough 4 miles
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: Ash, Surrey/Hampshire Border Farnborough 4 miles
Posted (edited)

Are we all tuned in to......

http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/live_tv.html

....for the next run over H Dean in five minutes or so.

Right click on image and go 'Full view'

Edited by androcles
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androcles Newbie

androcles

Posted
  • Location: Ash, Surrey/Hampshire Border Farnborough 4 miles
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: Ash, Surrey/Hampshire Border Farnborough 4 miles
Posted

Errrrrr.....long five minutes......

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Calrissian Newbie

Calrissian

Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Location: London, UK
Posted

Aye, I think many are :D

Well, If the eye of Dean is going to hit Kingston town direct, its going to have to go directly NW from now on. That seems unlikely of course, so the capital will be spared a direct hit.

However, it does look like the western half of the island might get seriously whacked by 150mph winds.

Calrissian: awaiting the next flyby

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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted (edited)

Well with kw gone missing and mondy banned we might aswell all head to the pub :(

Seriously lacking substance this discussion and yes I know I'm contibuting to that

It's just this time last year was so much better with mondy constantly updating and providing great links

Even CNN is more informative :(

However, all the endless talk of 'ohh it'll skirt to the south of the Island', utter nonsense talk.

Maybe it wasn't nonsense at all :D

Edited by January Snowstorm
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*Stormforce~beka* Maestro

*Stormforce~beka*

Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
Posted (edited)

5 minutes turns into 20...

I have to say that thing to the far right of Dean looks very suspect

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

Edited by *Stormforce~beka*
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crimsone Rising Star

crimsone

Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
Posted (edited)

To be honest JS, nothing much has really happened. There's been the end of an EWRC, there were some signs of a possible new cycle, and a trachoidal wobble to the south. That's about it really - very little is different from this morning.

5 minutes turns into 20...

Yes. As facinating as it is to see pictures that I can't identify of a glorified airplane, it's not what I'm watching it for. lol Certainly we've missed the live pass... maybe the ISS cameras caught it and they'll show it when they can... or maybe not.

Edited by crimsone
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rc28 Newbie

rc28

Posted
  • Location: County Meath, Ireland
  • Location: County Meath, Ireland
Posted (edited)
Maybe it wasn't nonsense at all :D

He was giving out about how the news station said that "because it was heading more southerly things would be much better for jamaica" which isn't really true as the strongest winds are on the northern side of the eye

Edited by rc28
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androcles Newbie

androcles

Posted
  • Location: Ash, Surrey/Hampshire Border Farnborough 4 miles
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: Ash, Surrey/Hampshire Border Farnborough 4 miles
Posted
To be honest JS, nothing much has really happened. There's been the end of an EWRC, there were some signs of a possible new cycle, and a trachoidal wobble to the south. That's about it really - very little is different from this morning.

Except we're all another day older.....

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