Hurricane Dean

[SnowBear]

Thing is, as I see it, the further west that GoM low moves and possibly act as a block over the western GoM, the more likely H.Dean will move up along side the east side of that low, possibly bringing it in the GoM more towards the TX/LA/MI area.

[Cookie]

thanks for all the great updates guys

[Calrissian]

lol, I am watching those media hacks, they seem to either be utterly naive or have been drinking most of the night.

"...it looks like it will miss us to the south....won't be as bad as Wilma, so we should be okay".

How many of those foolish media hacks will be still be alive tomorrow evening? Idiots.

---

Meanwhile, Dean...advances another step forward.

*people can debate all they want about whether it whacks the island as a Cat'4 or 5. Makes no difference. Kingston will probably be obliterated.

I'm reminded of the Marley Song 'Exodus'. Today, more than ever, its appropriate, but of course, hardly anyone has left. I even read one story of some tourist flying into Jamaica, they said something along the lines of 'ohh, they've had storms before, we'll be fine'. Sigh. Oh well, maybe they'll win the Darwin award later this year?

Calrissian: watching the now 24/7 feed : http://www.hurricanecity.com/live.asx

[January Snowstorm]

Anyone got info as to the current strength of Dean and also what time it's due to hit Jamaica??

It does indeed look like Jamaica could be severly damaged with this storm. And yes I agree the media are slightly oblivious to the whole thing. Then again they rely on the Met so you can't really blame them

[Calrissian]

re: media

How anyone can fail to recognise that any level of hurricane is an apocolyptic event, sigh.

I just say to people, imagine standing in front of a jet liner engine on 50% thrust for 6 hours, and then tell me whether you think you'll 'be fine'.

--

Meanwhile, looks like Dean is about 17'N, just 1 more degree and its almost guarenteed to make landfall. ETA on landfall, something around 6-8 hours.

So, by 10pm UK, the eyewall will probably hit the land.

Calrissian: eyes sharp

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

you mean this circular mass right in the middle of the gulf?

water vapour image:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html

rotation is clearly visible in this image loop:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

bring on the fujiwhawa?

If a second storm appears then this could influence the path of Dean in ways models have yet to account for.

[rc28]

Oh dear, I was just listening to jamaican radio and they were saying that things were looking up as the "eye wont be passing over them", they then said "the eye is the worst part". Someone should let them know the worst is actually north of the eye wall and will pass right over them

[Paranoid]

I would have thought the eye is the best part as it's completely calm, unfortunately you have to go through the eyewall to get to it.

[Calrissian]

http://www.hurricanecity.com/live.asx

Yes, the radio host - routed via that feed, is sounding rather bouncy and overly light about it. All the talk that the eye might be to the south, sigh.

They seem to totally be oblivious to that fact that if the eye wall is within say...20 miles of them, they are going to get whacked hard.

Expect the next movement for Dean to be almost straight NW. Its due another step in that direction, talk that its going to 'miss', and everything will be relatively fine, its crazy talk.

After a relatively long period of quiet, I'd expect Dean to have its structure refocused within 3-6 hours, which is somewhat worse-case for the same time as its expected to pass at/near Jamaica.

Calrissian: wondering when the power will be cut to the locals.

[crimsone]

Gawd I got tired last night! lol.

Those newscasters are daft... Katrina proves 3 things...

It's not just about where they eyewall hits, it's about how it hits, how strong the winds are both in and outside of the eyewall, how wide the windrange is, and how prepared the people/country are/is. Here's hoping that the general population has more sense than the media... is this still looking like the strongest hurricane to hit Jamaica in 150 years?

One of the big troubles going through the eye from one side to the other isn't just the speed though... it's that the high winds reverse direction quickly... the wind blowing one way stresses structures and roofs in one direction, and then it blows against the stresses.

...those newscasters also seem to have missed this latest bit...

IT IS IMPERATIVE NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.

CONSIDERING THE MARGIN OF ERROR OF NHC PREDICTIONS...THE CORE OF

THIS LARGE HURRICANE COULD EASILY BE 30-50 N MI ON EITHER SIDE OF

THE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

Edited August 19, 2007 by crimsone

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Link

Good view of Hurricane Dean and potential Tropical Storm Felix??

Perhaps Dean is so large he will mess that system up before it gets going...

Edited August 19, 2007 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[crimsone]

If it's either to survive or have anything more than a negligable affect on Dean, it'll want to get going pretty quickly.

[Calrissian]

Just one other thing to note before the big event...

When this thing gets near the island, the direction could really change a fair bit. Dean could seem to bounce distinctly south, or may even seem to be pulled into the island.

It is going to be crazy at 10pm tonight.

Calrissian: ready for Dean

[Paranoid]

Will there be another update at 4pm here?

[crimsone]

yes... it will be the next full advisory... though from what I've seen lately, they seem to come in a little bit earlier, so anytime after the next 15 mins towards 4pm it could be there.

Edited August 19, 2007 by crimsone

[milkmaid]

will that include the pressure readings

[SnowBear]

Interestingly it seems the GFDL might have had this one right. H.Dean seems to be moving forward almost due west for the last hour or so which could mean the worst misses Jamaica by a small margin, still hurricane winds but of a lower order than if the NE quadrant and eyewall had skimmed along the SW coast. This might be just a wobble, but it looks to me more like a definite and welcome track change.

[crimsone]

will that include the pressure readings

I can't find much recon since the last (intermediate) advisory, and so I would imaging the pressures they give will be their best estimate, assuming they don't have information that we don't.

Interestingly it seems the GFDL might have had this one right. H.Dean seems to be moving forward almost due west for the last hour or so which could mean the worst misses Jamaica by a small margin, still hurricane winds but of a lower order than if the NE quadrant and eyewall had skimmed along the SW coast. This might be just a wobble, but it looks to me more like a definite and welcome track change.

Just looked at the loop myself... personally I think that the move at the end of the sequence may just be a big trachoidal wobble... if it was, it was certainly big enough to be somewhat better news for Jamaica unless it wobbles back!

Edited August 19, 2007 by crimsone

[crimsone]

The advisory is with us (forcast discussion still isn't up... it will be in the next few minutes. They've based the pressure on this latest recon (just under an hour ago)...

000

URNT12 KNHC 191443

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007

A. 19/13:58:00Z

B. 16 deg 49 min N

074 deg 49 min W

C. 700 mb 2448 m

D. 112 kt

E. 220 deg 020 nm

F. 324 deg 111 kt

G. 221 deg 023 nm

H. EXTRAP 926 mb

I. NA C/ 3040 m

J. 18 C/ 3045 m

K. 13 C/ NA

L. CLOSED

M. C16-32

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF304 0904A DEAN OB 08

MAX FL WIND 110 KT SE QUAD 12:15:20 Z

MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 134KT AT 14:06:50Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

...I'm not quite sure what they are trying to say about the eye though... CO16-32 I would understand, but C16-32 I'm not sure of.

edit:

CENTRAL PRESSURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY

RISING...THE EYE DIAMETER HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12

HOURS...AND THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL

STRUCTURE.

oh, ok... it's a typo or something. Means the same as CO16-32. Surely not another EWRC underway!? on the strnghtening side though, flight winds of 142 kt were apparently found, which firmly supports a surface speed of 125 kt (145 mph) as reported.

Edited August 19, 2007 by crimsone

[Cookie]

I'll be on at 10pm

[Calrissian]

Looking at the vapour loop...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

Just one or two more steps northward, and Dean will be guarenteed to have its eyewall landfall somewhere along the southern Jamaican coast.

Just one or two, and that is HIGHLY likely I predict.

Calrissian: his eyes are watching...the eye.

[Cookie]

great link Calrissian

Intense Hurricane DEAN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Jamaica

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

the Cayman Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours

Mexico

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 80% in about 45 hours

an update

[crimsone]

That loop shows the earlier southward wobble quite nicely... a wobble back to the north is entirely possible. At the moment though, I'm most interested in the possibility of a new EWRC, but I can't find the data I want available ... I want another vortex message, and I'm going to sulk untill I get one. lol

edit: Talk of the devil!!!!

000

URNT12 KNHC 191603

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007

A. 19/15:22:50Z

B. 16 deg 56 min N

075 deg 15 min W

C. NA mb 2455 m

D. 110 kt

E. 301 deg 012 nm

F. 050 deg 132 kt

G. 307 deg 021 nm

H. 928 mb

I. NA C/ 3015 m

J. 16 C/ 3046 m

K. 15 C/ NA

L. CLOSED

M. CO 10-40

N. 12345/7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF304 0904A DEAN OB 15

MAX FL WIND 145 KT NE QUAD 14:10:30 Z

UNABLE TO FIX CENTER DUE TO UNDERCAST

...not quite sure whether undercast has any significance, but according to that, the inner eyewall is constricting, and the outer eyewall is expanding compared with the last message, which as far as I know is the very opposite of what would be happening if an EWCR was progressing (or in other words, it seems to be going backwards at the moment). 145 kt flight winds would support 125 kt/130 kt at the surface. the pressure has risen a little again, but it's possible that recon missed the center on this pass.

Edited August 19, 2007 by crimsone

[Paranoid]

The pressure is rising, so why are the winds staying at a stable level?

[Calrissian]

oh yeah...look at the masterful Dvorak...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-bd.html

Just one more further nudge north westward, and Kingston will be in dire trouble of a direct hit. Of course, a few more steps to right, and it might get lucky.

However, all the endless talk of 'ohh it'll skirt to the south of the Island', utter nonsense talk.

Further, I again see more charts predicting Dean will be a Cat'5 before it passes by Jamaica.

We've around 4 or 5 hours to go.

Calrissian: time to shoot some noobs up on BF 2142 ?